Báo Cáo Vic Nhom

5/24/2018 B o C o Vic Nhom

1/22

MUAGi mc tiu: gGi hin ti: gTng trng: h

DLIU CPHIU

Gi cao nht 52 tun 80,000

Gi thp nht 52 tun 59,500Gi ng ca gn nhtVn ho thtrng 58,125.63Slng cphiu lu hnh 894,240,405EPS 7,896EPS don 4,101P/E

TP ON VINGROUP CNG TY CPHNM chng khon: VIC


2/22

PHN TCH V M

Nhn tchnh tr- php lutH thng php lut ca nc ta hin nay cha thc shon chnh v khnng thc thi cha cao, thm vo vn cn tn ti nhiu quy nh phctp chng cho ln nhau trong lnh vc hnh chnh, trong phi kn tai v kinh doanh BS. iu ny lm nh hng khng nhn hot ngkinh doanh BS ca cng ty.

Vic thay i lut php cng nh cc thtc hnh chnh sc nh hng

trc tip n tnh khthi cng nh tin thc hin ca dn. Tuy nhin,vi xu hng pht trin chung ca nn kinh t, Chnh phang tng bchon thin dn hthng php lut, to sthng thong hn vcc thtchnh chnh phc vnhu cu vnh ang ngy cng trnn bc thit vingi dn.

Mt snghnh mi ca Chnh phc nh hng ti lnh vc BSnh:

Nghnh s121/2013/N-CP quy nh xpht vi phm hnh chnh tronghot ng xy dng; kinh doanh bt ng sn; khai thc, sn xut, kinhdoanh vt liu xy dng; qun l cng trnh htng kthut; qun l phttrin nh v cng s.

Theo , mi hnh vi vi phm hnh chnh trong lnh vc xy dng phi cpht hin kp thi v nh chngay. Vic xpht vi phm hnh chnh ctin hnh kp thi, cng minh, trit v ng trnh t, thtc quy nh tiNghnh ny. Mi hu qudo vi phm hnh chnh gy ra phi c khc

h h h h l i i d d


3/22

h h h h l i i d d

Nghnh 11 vpht trin th

Ngy 14/1/2013, Th tng Nguyn Tn Dng k ban hnh ngh nh11/2013/N-CP v qun l u t pht trin th. Nghnh v qun lu t pht trin th ban hnh nhm iu chnh tng th cc vn trong lnh vc ny khc phc tnh trng pht trin t pht, thiu quyhoch, khoch, chng lng ph ngun lc nh hin nay theo ltrnh 5 nmn 10 nm. Nghnh mi ny cng xut m hnh khoa hc vqun lkhu vc pht trin th.

Mc d yu tphp lut lin quan n vn t ai v kinh doanh BS c

nh hng trc tip n hot ng kinh doanh ca Vingroup nhng phhp vi tnh hnh pht trin t nc Chnh phsc nhng iu chnh theohng thng thong hn nn ri ro php lut t c khnng nh hng nhot ng ca cng ty.

Nhn tkinh t

Li sut

Li sut huy ng nm 2013 vn nm trong xu hng gim nhng tc chm li so vi nm 2012, li sut cho vay VNc iu chnh gim thm3-4%/nm htrdoanh nghip. n cui nm 2013, li sut cho vay phbin trong khong 8-11.5%/nm k hn ngn v 10-13%/nm trung dihn. Trong , cc lnh vc u tin ln lt l 8-9%/nm v 11-12%/nm vcc lnh vc khc l 9-11%/nm v 11.5-13%/nm.

Tnh n 23/3/2014, li sut huy ng gim 0.5-0.8 im % so vi u

i i k h i 0 2 0 5 i % i i k h di0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

18.00%

Biu :Li sut cho vay 2013


4/22

chuyn i tri phiu lc o hn m yu cu Vingroup thanh ton ngcv li ti thi im tri phiu o hn. Khnng tri chkhng chuyn i

l rt thp v hin ti tri ch c li nhiu hn nu chuyn i tri phiuthnh cphn.

Tnh thanh khon thtrng bt ng sn

Vi chin lc, hng i ng n v linh hot, i ng qun l giu kinhnghim v shp tc cht chvi cc chuyn gia t vn hng u Vit Namv quc t, Vingroup lun sn sng i ph vi ri ro ny. Bn cnh cngty cho rng ri ro ny chmang tnh tm thi nht nh v thtrng BS

Vit Nam vn cn nhiu tim nng.

u t nc ngoi

Gn 300 triu USD vn FDI vo bt ng sn Vit Nam trong qu I/2014,y l con skhng hnhv n cho thy squan tm ca cc nh u tnc ngoi i vi thtrng BS trong nc.

Nhn tcng ngh

Cng nghngy cng i mi, con ngi cng cp nht nhanh nhng ngdng mi th vic p dng n trnn v cng quan trng. Cthgii vnang trong cuc cch mng ca cng ngh, hng lot cc cng nghmic ra i v c tch hp vo cc sn phm, dch v. Nu cch y 30nm my vi tnh chl mt cng cdng tnh ton th ngy nay n cchc nng thay thmt con ngi lm vic hon ton c lp.

Vingroup a vo ng dng nhiu cng nghhin i trong qun l v

h h h T d k h L E h h l S

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2009 2010 2011 2012

Tng s vn ng k Tng s vn thc hin

Ngun: Tng cc thng k

Biu :u t trc tip vo Vit Nam


5/22

Tuy nhin Vit Nam hnh thc huy ng vn cha pht trin a dng,trong khi nc ngoi cc cng cnh tri phiu BS, qu tn thc BS

(REIT), hoc cc hnh thc bo him cho dn pht trin rt mnh. iuny khin cho thtrng Vit Nam hu nh chtp trung sdng duy nhthnh thc huy ng vn theo kiu t cc, hp ng gp vn.

Ro cn vk thut:

Ngnh BS l 1 ngnh cn kh mi so vi cc ngnh khc trong nn kinh tquc dn. Tuy nhin n l 1 ngnh c khnng sinh li cao. Nhiu cng tymun gia nhp vo thtrng kinh doanh BS nhng gp phi mt sro

cn vk thut gy kh khn trong vic gia nhp th trng. Cc cng tykhng thxin giy php xy dng cc cng trnh a c v cc quy nh kthut vnguyn vt liu khng t yu cu, khu quy hoch khng p ngc yu cu vdin tch, an tondn n nhng kh khn v gy tnkm cho doanh nghip khi mun tham gia vo thtrng.

Ro cn vphp lut:

Php lut c thc xem l yu ttc ng quan trng n shnh thnhv pht trin ca thtrng BS biu hin qua nhng quy nh vphp lutv quyn mua, bn, cho thu, th chp, gp vn lin doanhbng BS.Thc tcho thy, yu tny c ththc y, hn chhoc c thxa bstn ti ca th trng BS do tnh cht c bit ca hng ha BS l gnlin vi t ai, m iu ny lun c Nh nc mi thi k (trcng xnguyn thy) u nm quyn iu chnh.

Ro cn vthtc hnh chnh:


6/22

c nguy c bsuy gim. gic mt thphn n nh Vingroup nlc ht mnh trong vic nghin cu, thit k, thi cng xy dng thu ht

khch hng n vi cc sn phm ca mnh.Quyn lc thng lng tnh cung ng

i tc chin lc:

Ngn hng u t & Pht trin VN (BIDV)

BIDV & Vingroup k tha thun hp tc ng hnh. Bng thothun ny,BIDV v Vingroup s l i tc ng hnh ca nhau, m bo hp tc lu

di, bn vng thng qua s h tr cht ch nhm pht huy thmnh vtim lc ca mi bn. BIDV sl ngn hng chnh cung cp cc dch vngnhng, phi ngn hng vi cc c chchnh sch, li sut, ph dch vhp lphc vcho u t, phttrin sn xut kinh doanh ca Vingroup; Vingroups l khch hng u tin sdng cc sn phm, dch vca BIDV, hngti hnh thnh mt lin minh tp on kinh tln p ng cho spht trina nng ca chai bn.

Cng qua tho thun k kt, BIDV v Vingroup s cng xc tin cc hotng gp vn, lin doanh, lin kt htrnhau mrng v pht trin cchot ng kinh doanh a ngnh, a lnh vc, a m hnh qun l khaithc tt nht th mnh ca mi bn, tim nng ca th trng trong vngoi nc, trong lnh vc kinh doanh truyn thng ca mi bn v cc lnhvc khc m hai bn cng quan tm.

Trong giai on thtrng BSng bng, kh vay vn dn dn quyn lc


7/22

Quyn lc thng lng tpha khch hng

Khch hng c nhn: s lng nhiu nhng c yu cu kht khe vi chtlng sn phm. Khch hng ca Vingroup chyu l nhng ngi c a v,kinh tvng chc. V l c nhn nn sn phm hi hi cn t theo tiuch ca ring c nhn ha ra. Ai cng bit rng p ng i hi c nhnthng kh hn p ng yu cu ca 1 tchc, v vy nhm khch hngny tuy nhiu nhng li khng phi i tng a thch ca doanh nghip,hn na i vi 1 doanh nghip ln nh Vincom. Mt im na l, spng gia cc doanh nghip trong ngnh v sn phm i vi nhm khch

hng ny thng ging nhau dn n s canh tranh khng ln, li nhuncng 1 phn bnh hng.

Khch hng tchc: Nhu cu thtrng bt ng sn, c bit l vn phnglm vic v trung tm thng mi a bn thnh phngy cng cao cngl mt mi trng thun li cho Vingroup pht trin sn phm. y l nhmkhch hng a thch ca hu ht cc doanh nghip bi sbn vng v dchiu ca h.

Khch hng cho ca cng ty ny l nhm khch hng tchc.Trong phn on chung c cp va, skhc bit khng qu nhiu gia ccdoanh nghip trong ngnh, nu sn phm khng khc bit dn n quynlc thng lng tpha khch hng ln.

Trong giai on th trng BSng bng, gi cao, kh vay vn dn dndoanh nghip bng mi cch bn bt slng thu hi vn xy dng tipt cc doanh nghip ua nhau gim gi, khch hng l ngi c li ln


8/22

e dotcc sn phm thay th

Sn phm chyu ca tp on Vingroup l nhng chung c cao cp chonn i tng khch hng chnh ca h l nhng ngi c thu nhp cao.Nhng khch hng ny ngoi la chn mua chung c hc thmua t xy nh hoc mua bit thnh vn. V vy, mun hla chn mua chungc sng th cc sn phm ca cng ty phi to c skhc bit, thhin c stin nghi v ng cp. cng l l do v sao cc ta nh ca

Vingroup thng c thit kda theo kin trc ca nhng thnh phniting thgii nh dn khu thxanh Royal City mang phong cch hong

gia chu u, d n khu th cao cp Vincom Village - mt thnh phVenice (Italy) xinh p, sang trng v quyn r Vit Nam

Mt thc tc thddng nhn ra l khng phi khch hng no muanh chung c cng vi mc ch , cng c ngi mua vi mc ch ut hay coi nh mt cch gitin. Mt nh u t c thla chn chomnh nhiu phng n u t khc nhau nh u t vo sn xut kinhdoanh, u t chng khon, u t bt ng sn, u t vngNh vy,

ch cn mt s thay i nh trn cc th trng cn li th th trng btng sn cng c thbnh hng. V dnh khi thtrng chng khonsi ng, li nhun thu c tvic u t chng khon tng nhanh, ccnh u t thng c xu hng rt vn tcc khon u t khc u tvo chng khon.

PHN TCH TI CHNHLnh vc kinh doanh


9/22

BS Vit Nam (VIPD) vi gi 9.823 tng (tng ng 470 triu USD),thu v 4.3 nghn tng li nhun, y c xem l thng vM&A ln

nht trong nm. D n Vincom Center A, nm trung tm Qun 1 caTP.HCM v khnh thnh vo 10/2012, bao gm su tng hm v chn tngnh, cng ba tng hm cho bi gi xe, ba tn hm v bn tng nh chotrung tm mua sm v khu vc gii tr. Mt khc sn nm sao ttng 5 ntng 9. Chshu ca VIPD khng c tit lnhng c nhiu githit lCng ty TNHH Tp on Vn Thnh Pht (VTP) vi vn iu l12,8 nghn tng. Trschnh ca VIPD nm ta nh vn phng VTP, Qun 1, ni tptrung cc cng ty thnh vin khc ca VTP.

Cc chtiu ti chnh c bn

Hskhnng thanh ton

Nm 2011, tsthanh ton hin hnh l 0.93 nhhn 1. Tuy nhin, tnm2012 cho n 2013, tsny c ci thin, u ln hn 1 v tng t1.12n 1.49 cho thy Vingroup c ti sn ngn hn m bo cho cckhon nngn hn.

Tsthanh ton nhanh nm 2011 l 0.49 nhhn 1. Tsny tip tc gimvo 2012, sau c ci thin vo nm 2013 t 0.63.

Nguyn nhn nhn chung c th thy l do ti sn ngn hn c s tngtrng qua cc nm, trong khi nngn hn nm 2013 gim so vi nm2012, thm ch t mc thp hn so vi nm 2011.

Chtiu hiu quhot ng

H s thanh ton 2011 2012 2013T s thanh tonhin hnh (ln) 0.93 1.12 1.49T s thanh tonnhanh (ln) 0.49 0.36 0.63

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,00018,000

20,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Doanh thu thun

Li nhun trc thu

Li nhun sau thu

Biu :Li nhun bin

n v: tn

Ngun: Bo co ti chnh VIC

Bng:Tskhnng thanh ton

Ngun: Nhm nh gi

Ch h


10/22

USD tri phiu chuyn i quc t. Vo nm 2013, Vingroup to tingvang mnh mtrn thtrng quc tkhi cng ty huy ng thnh cng 200

triu USD vn cphn tmt tp on ng u bi Warburg Pincus, 150triu USD vn vay quc t, v 200 triu USD tri phiu quc t. iu ny gip Vingroup duy tr tt tin dn, nng cao thng hiu v tng doanhthu bn hng.

C ththy, tlnphi trca Vingroup kh cao so vi cc cng ty khccng ngnh cho thy mc sdng n by ti chnh ln. Tuy vy, trongthi gian qua Vingroup cho thy khnng kim sot v qun l cc khon

nny nhvo lng tin mt cng ty ang shu, v khnng bn hngang c duy tr mc tt. ng thi, tlnphi tr/tng ti sn v nphi tr/vn chshu c xu hng gim tnm 2011 n 2013, gim plc ti chnh cng nh cc ri ro cho cng ty.

T lndi hn/tng ti sn v ndi hn/vn ch shu tng qua ccnm, n nm 2013 t tng ng l 47% v 197% chim t trng lntrong c cu n, m bo ngun vn n nh cho cc dn. Tuy nhin, vi

cc khon ndi hn ni trn, Vingroup sphi i mt vi gnh nng chiph khi li sut cao. Cthl vo cui nm 2013, phn ln tri phiu doanhnghip ca Vingroup c thi hn cn li t hai n bn nm, vi li suttng ng l 11.5% v 19.5% mi nm i vi tri phiu ni a, 5% i vitri phiu quc t, v c m bo vi cc dn BS ca cng ty. Mc lisut ny l kh cao so vi xu hng thtrng hin nay, gia tng gnh nngchi ph li vay cho cng ty.

C cu vn-n by 2011 2012 2013Nphi tr/Tng tisn (ln) 0.77 0.81 0.75Nphi tr/Vn chs hu (ln) 4.19 4.26 3.95N di hn/Tng tisn (ln) 0.16 0.35 0.47N di hn/Vn chs hu (ln) 0.87 1.83 1.97Vn ch shu/Tng ngun vn(ln) 0.18 0.19 0.23TSC/Tng ti sn(ln) 0.18 0.19 0.19

Ch tiusinh li 2011 2012 2013Tng

Bng:C cu vnn by

Ngun: Nhm nh gi

Bng:Chtiu sinh li


11/22

NH GI CPHIU

Nhm nh gi hp l v c tnh so snh, nhm nh gi tin hnh nh gicphiu VIC bng 3 phng php sau:

P/E

FCFE

FCFF

Dliu

Trc khi bc vo nh gi cphiu VIC, chng ta cn mt vi dliu phcvtrong xuyn sut qu trnh nh gi ca c3 phng php, nh: li sutthtrng, li sut tri phiu, chi ph sdng vn bnh qun ca cng ty, linhun ca cc cng ty cng ngnh v cc thng tin lin quan, c thuthp tcc ngun tin cy.

Li sut thtrng

Nhm sly VNIndex lm thc o sut sinh li thtrng, v chsny gn

nh thhin c spht trin ca cc ngnh do cc cng ty c vn holn c nim yt y v c xem l trct ca thtrng chng khon

Vit Nam. dliu c hp l, nhm ly chsVNIndex tlc mi thnhlp cho n k gn nht vi hin nay l 30/5/2014.

Do tnh lin tc ca chsnn li sut trung bnh ca thtrng hng nmc tnh bng phng php trung bnh nhn vi sk tng ng l 13.86nm ktlc thnh lp chsVNIndex cho n nay.

May-2014 . Jul-2000

VNIndex 562 100

Rm 13.29%

Bng:Sut sinh li thtrng


12/22

Phng php FCFE

Li nhun sau thuca tp on Vingroup mc kh thp trong giai on2009-2011 do sng bng ca thtrng bt ng s. Dng tin tdo cacng ty giai on ny cng thay i tht thng do sthay i cc khonphi thu. Nm 2011 do chnh sch tht cht tn dng ca NHNN khin chophn khc cao cpphn khc chnh ca cng ty gp nhiu kh khn. Nm2012 th trng cng cha c nhiu du hiu kh quan vi vic khp libng vic gi ca cc cn hchung c, gi cho thu vn phng, trung tmthng mi v t nn bit thu gim. Do , trong giai on ny tp

on Vingroup ngng cho bn trn thtrng s cp m tp trung vovic hon thnh cc dn v thu tin i vi nhng cn h bn v chothu. Nm 2013, vi nhng chuyn bin khi sc ca nn kinh t trongnc, nhng chnh sch htrthtrng bt ng sn ca Nh nc, tpon Vingroup t mc doanh thu v li nhun klc. Trong , chyun tcc dn Vinhome Time City, Vinhome Royal City v chuyn nhngthnh cng Vincom Center A HCh Minh.

T nhng lp lun trn, nhm cho rng vic don tc tng trngFCFE ca tp on Vingroup da vo dliu qu khca 5 nm gn nht skhng chnh xc. Vic thay i vt bc vli nhun sau thucng nh nhucu u t nm 2013 so vi cc nm trc s khin cho tc tngtrng bnh qun giai on ny khng phn nh ng tc tng trngdng tin tdo trong tng lai. Do , nhm stin hnh c lng tc tng trng FCFE trong tng lai da vo ROE v t lti u t ca tpon.

T l ti u t 40.55%

ROE 54.17%

Tc tng trng 21.97%

0%5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2014 2022 2030

Tc tng trng FCFE


13/22

Phng php FCFF


14/22

PHN TCH KTHUT

Phn tch chsVNIndexBiu : ChsVNIndex


15/22

Phn tch cphiu VIC

Biu : Cphiu VIC

ng gi sau khi gim trong nhiu phin trc bt u bt tng tr li tuy nhin vn cha cdu hiu r rng kt thc gim gi theo l thuyt Dow.

Trong cc phin giao dch bt u tngy 14/5, ng gi xuyn thng ng xu hng gim(Down trenline). Nhng y chl mt trendline yu nn vic ph vtrendline ny vn cha c thkhng nh c rng xu hng gim kt thc v c du hiu o chiu.

ng gi nm pha trn ng MA(15) v MA(25) cho thy chiu hng tng gi ca cphiu.


16/22

Bn cnh cng c sphn k o chiu xu hng gim gia ng gi v MFI. Tuy nhin ti thiim phn tch, MFI tin st vi mc 80 cho thy thtrng ang trong tnh trng mua qu nhiu v

iu ny c thdn n gi siu chnh gim trong ngn hn.

Sau t gim im ca th trng v s tng tr li ca gi c phiu hnh thnh nhng mckhng cmi cho gi cphiu theo Fibonacci. Mc khng cmi l 68 v mc htrl 61.5. iuny cho thy trong hin ti gi cphiu ang tin st vi mc khng cv ang iu chnh gim. Kvng trong tng lai gi cphiu sc thvt qua c mc khng chin ti v bt tng to xuhng tng gi.

KT LUN


17/22

PHLCBo co ti chnh 20092013

Bng cn i kton hp nht

Nm 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Ti sn ng n hnTin v tng ng tin 1,426,939,327,932 1,515,008,976,492 1,231,728,589,840 1,616,855,174,935 7,534,048,703,295u t ti chnh ngn hn 4,927,285,308,435 3,942,515,956,299 4,195,988,849,590 3,884,414,354,916 5,564,825,407,070D phng gim gi (29,275,547,847) (10,242,485,500) (21,101,135,007) (19,570,344,278) (51,984,372,442)Phi thu khch hng 342,443,869,667 3,005,074,311,687 1,096,924,061,390 1,226,873,098,007 906,583,310,596D phng phi thu kh i 0 (12,954,092,169) (2,379,631,268) (12,336,142,520) (30,447,230,378)Tr trc cho ngi bn 355,463,866,881 1,638,208,034,996 2,041,076,551,154 2,106,084,921,176 1,067,203,605,764Phi thu khc 309,885,624,274 1,033,236,740,239 1,999,876,495,659 488,614,532,023 1,848,565,858,757Tn kho 14,806,275,272 2,264,169,759,164 9,295,702,390,616 17,794,010,357,437 18,922,655,956,360D phng gim gi hng tnkho

(403,246,082) 0 (13,299,817,444) (9,119,830,995) (8,938,534,347)

Chi ph tr trc ngn hn 1,872,542,207 19,623,595,664 42,081,292,302 39,627,501,766 112,995,880,636Ti sn ngn hn khc 179,389,627,453 45,121,918,685 172,900,657,319 1,680,832,576,068 3,979,169,102,458

Tng ti sn ngn hn 7,528,407,648,192 13,439,762,715,557 20,039,498,304,151 28,796,286,198,535 39,844,677,687,769

Ti sn di hnu t ti chnh di hn 1,551,764,383,433 3,743,120,738,994 2,069,242,276,169 3,163,564,921,117 4,535,383,326,606D phng gim gi (105,040,000,000) (1,362,527,211) 0 0 (3,000,000,000)Ti sn c nh hu hnh 39,113,547,936 163,686,218,038 1,772,577,005,816 4,550,753,937,051 5,645,716,640,220Nguyn gi 55,826,692,051 192,230,352,378 1,799,883,929,788 5,321,617,094,523 6,707,573,344,357Khu hao (16,713,144,115) (28,544,134,340) (27,306,923,972) (770,863,157,472) (1,061,856,704,137)Ti sn c nh v hnh 529,638,145,423 179,542,613,642 169,407,501,624 579,850,048,763 504,491,185,676Nguyn gi 535,913,156,783 196,744,083,572 195,651,739,147 638,289,648,823 576,932,515,265Khu hao (6,275,011,360) (17,201,469,930) (26,244,237,523) (58,439,600,060) (72,441,329,589)Cho thu ti chnh 0 0 0 0 0Nguyn gi 0 0 0 0 0

Kh u hao 0 0 0 0 0B t ng sn u t 530,434,148,042 3,646,743,623,933 3,960,676,144,502 6,643,474,111,936 13,628,734,369,628Nguyn gi 600,013,839,112 3,763,420,137,800 4,181,585,332,122 6,959,670,305,956 14,148,672,844,583Kh u hao (69,579,691,070) (116,676,513,867) (220,909,187,620) (316,196,194,020) (519,938,474,955)Chi ph xy dng d dang 3,875,683,115,010 4,371,157,020,787 4,566,958,327,280 5,617,755,385,673 5,573,906,924,848Li th thng mi 87,724,817,948 242,876,414,681 2,264,822,097,870 5,323,050,138,965 4,803,912,193,645Chi ph tr trc di hn 267,620,149,634 345,089,220,601 650,698,913,075 1,104,994,130,073 1,195,471,414,505


18/22

Ti sn thu TNDN hon li 7,303,813,125 14,586,915,040 8,237,287,997 45,141,892,563 42,623,898,681Ti sn di hn khc 715,288,064 1,646,293,357 10,517,265,000 5,040,000 730,784,217T ng ti sn di hn 6,784,957,408,615 12,708,449,059,073 15,473,136,819,333 27,028,589,606,141 35,927,970,738,026T NG T I S N 14,313,365,056,807 26,148,211,774,630 35,512,635,123,484 55,824,875,804,676 75,772,648,425,795N ng n hnN vay ng n hn 242,288,185,273 294,320,590,034 4,625,302,442,156 3,066,159,014,913 3,023,470,785,606Phi tr ngi bn 146,079,448,800 112,761,461,723 538,965,024,625 1,704,259,748,134 1,158,828,828,873Ngi mua tr ti n trc 1,087,683,691 931,723,029,733 12,044,721,660,330 17,800,274,073,366 16,150,044,422,734Thu phi np 346,648,705,412 1,006,650,631,435 309,186,664,447 306,493,773,895 2,107,765,031,095Chi ph phi tr 314,899,246,345 549,884,460,325 1,902,928,243,357 1,726,105,548,126 3,133,356,980,243N ng n hn khc 415,890,873,291 2,357,024,484,903 2,209,094,209,346 1,040,829,982,678 1,101,799,359,637T ng n ng n hn 1,466,894,142,812 5,252,364,658,153 21,630,198,244,261 25,644,122,141,112 26,675,265,408,188N di hnN vay di hn 9,014,391,841,949 11,190,346,230,241 5,408,778,229,684 18,762,506,644,958 24,360,164,494,408Thu TNDN hon li phi tr 136,640,382,500 17,618,148,945 21,215,456,941 102,858,474,006 96,823,703,750N di hn khc 59,705,075,710 132,880,063,891 200,266,208,059 441,757,284,418 6,023,851,978,161T ng n di hn

9,210,737,300,159 11,340,844,443,077 5,630,259,894,684 19,307,122,403,382 30,480,840,176,319T ng n 10,677,631,442,971 16,593,209,101,230 27,260,458,138,945 44,951,244,544,494 57,156,105,584,507V n ch s huV n c ph n gp 1,996,272,380,000 3,726,252,370,000 3,911,498,930,000 7,004,620,550,000 9,296,036,790,000Thng d v n 773,354,590,000 1,522,259,442,223 2,395,153,738,480 3,974,286,534,624 1,781,641,494,624Chnh lch t gi (11,706,526,412) 0 0 0 0Li nhun cha phn phi 1,203,661,666,297 2,309,813,212,524 906,939,533,153 962,463,719,641 7,727,938,813,282Tng v n t li nhun 1,762,837,618 1,762,837,618 0 0 0Qu u t v pht tri n 0 0 0 0 0Qu d phng ti chnh 1,762,837,618 2,762,837,618 7,845,114,930 12,845,114,930 17,845,114,930Qu khc 0 0 0 0 0C phiu qu

(1,898,164,733,713) (720,199,415,988) (720,199,415,988) (1,397,646,730,489) (4,351,625,014,572)T ng v n ch s hu 2,066,943,051,408 6,842,651,283,995 6,501,237,900,575 10,556,569,188,706 14,471,837,198,264Li ch c ng thi u s 1,568,791,562,428 2,710,988,862,194 1,750,939,083,964 317,062,071,475 4,144,705,643,024

T ng ngu n v n 14,313,366,056,807 26,146,849,247,419 35,512,635,123,484 55,824,875,804,675 75,772,648,425,795


19/22

Bo co kt qukinh doanh hp nht

Nm 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Doanh thu thun 1,974,446,241,603 3,872,979,781,266 2,313,739,781,730 7,904,472,849,072 18,377,638,845,706Gi vn hng bn (537,310,953,326) (927,026,108,077) (1,306,236,537,557) (4,092,056,174,334) (11,346,984,128,307)Li nhun gp 1,437,135,288,277 2,945,953,673,189 1,007,503,244,173 3,812,416,674,738 7,030,654,717,399Doanh thu ti chnh 432,861,235,107 1,280,461,859,797 1,687,365,816,306 1,178,267,763,042 6,436,048,755,221Chi ph ti chnh (378,120,364,345) (987,456,894,447) (904,700,560,196) (1,241,485,700,398) (1,943,627,332,561)

Li vay (244,415,376,742) (511,476,475,135) (807,484,484,862) (1,097,254,164,113) (1,459,922,785,660)Chi ph bn hng (12,326,530,155) (29,435,956,071) (100,146,853,126) (204,739,744,706) (450,072,453,875)Chi ph qun l (109,705,812,478) (239,695,200,820) (444,155,874,833) (980,959,525,269) (1,466,422,267,061)Li nhun t HKD 1,369,843,816,406 2,969,827,481,648 1,245,865,772,324 2,563,499,467,407 9,606,581,419,123Thu nhp khc 5,955,612,257 179,241,332,230 130,414,885,097 114,330,587,641 135,646,492,056Chi ph khc (3,654,287,015) (71,549,951,611) (101,520,550,542) (40,209,407,607) (56,842,117,086)Li nhun khc 2,301,325,242 107,691,380,619 28,894,334,555 74,121,180,034 78,804,374,970Li t lin kt 12,057,080,243 65,535,940,673 196,711,339,694 17,442,478,522 54,700,187,785

Li nhun trc thu 1,384,202,221,891 3,143,054,802,940 1,471,471,446,573 2,655,063,125,963 9,740,085,981,878CP thu TNDN hin hnh (289,768,877,103) (700,704,758,533) (387,964,312,769) (841,200,729,285) (2,594,314,637,696)Thu nhp thu TNDN hon li 7,303,813,125 (10,335,047,030) (9,946,935,040) 32,805,527,847 3,516,776,375EAT 1,101,737,157,913 2,432,014,997,377 1,073,560,198,764 1,846,667,924,525 7,149,288,120,557Li ch c ng thiu s 203,094,991,000 125,116,211,150 252,274,322,805 275,356,238,037 369,775,972,604Li thuc cng ty m 898,642,166,913 2,306,898,786,227 821,285,875,959 1,571,311,686,488 6,779,512,147,953EPSEPS c bn 5,328 6,837 2,238 1,819 7,896EPS suy gim 5,328 6,340 2,127 1,762 7,299

Bo co lu chuyn tin thp nhtNm 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

NOCFEAT 1,384,202,221,891 3,143,054,802,940 1,471,471,446,573 2,655,063,125,963 9,740,085,981,878Khu hao 28,467,057,299 71,137,087,685 127,845,062,118 473,956,758,653 589,659,772,264D phng 118,595,508,178 (19,214,422,240) 12,221,478,840 4,065,415,576 53,343,819,374


20/22

Chch lch t gi 1,447,428,428 91,402,905,358 26,908,645,760 (3,763,603,143) 91,401,429,917Thanh l TSC 813,158,683 (2,012,984,795) 5,404,084,760 (1,915,923,059) 3,013,515,056Thanh l cc khon u t (161,085,047,626) (218,505,422,620) (872,623,487,485) (393,757,169,880) (5,637,485,222,758)Li t cng ty lin kt (12,057,080,243) (65,535,940,673) (196,711,339,694) (17,442,478,522) (54,700,187,785)Thu nhp li vay, c tc (228,124,864,785) (537,518,890,418) (785,058,983,719) (753,816,756,152) (756,474,309,084)Chi ph li vay 244,415,376,742 511,476,475,135 807,484,484,862 1,097,254,164,113 1,459,922,785,660Li sp nhp cng ty Sinh Thi 0 (84,327,237,669) 0 0 0Bt li thng mi do mua thmc phn 0 (11,546,465,640) 0 0

Phn b li th thng mi 11,744,761,632 11,448,028,487 71,472,052,144 426,042,633,583 589,083,963,573Li nhun trc thay i VL 1,388,418,520,199 2,901,404,401,190 656,866,978,519 3,485,686,167,132 6,077,851,548,095Cc khon phi thu (350,876,124,106) (4,407,501,951,813) 962,424,433,108 (349,157,912,285) 1,506,456,991,329Hng tn kho 10,373,602,642 (144,873,321,759) (4,364,830,317,207) (7,010,548,606,730) (53,674,323,727)Cc khon phi tr (39,640,489,000) 3,261,838,944,290 8,678,060,560,809 4,198,969,712,254 5,739,159,477,741Chi ph tr trc (142,451,244,381) (261,819,749,646) (381,406,532,855) (146,267,807,240) 367,776,128,547Tin li vay tr (554,170,665,971) (1,048,074,859,461) (1,192,631,581,884) (2,341,608,899,245) (2,550,652,028,899)Thu TNDN np (49,895,785,316) (312,592,412,186) (1,030,085,134,846) (898,948,679,962) (1,803,518,979,544)Tin thu khc t HKD (890,149,446) (27,733,342,232) (30,187,169,243) 10,512,225,001 641,182,106NOCF 260,867,664,621 (39,352,291,617) 3,298,211,236,401 (3,051,363,801,075) 9,284,039,995,648

NICFTin chi mua sm (1,648,037,880,903) (4,667,000,360,776) (1,466,116,187,077) (2,921,880,550,078) (8,589,796,722,908)Tin thu t thanh l TSC 1,727,089,650 66,348,737,887 207,235,846,450 948,248,820,753 39,220,197,524Tin cho vay (1,996,294,163,002) (499,000,000,000) (700,000,000,000) (1,550,000,000,000) (3,528,200,635,090)Tin gi ngn hn (1,050,000,000,000) (1,600,000,000,000) (1,033,825,000,000) (3,357,448,555,556) (4,541,578,166,950)Tin thu t cho vay 981,891,541,000 1,580,792,152,829 1,106,419,943,518 3,114,080,252,864 730,888,896,482Rt tin gi ngn hn 0 1,250,000,000,000 800,000,000,000 2,170,970,555,556 4,049,451,412,100Tin chi mua c phn cng tycon

0 (207,000,000,000) (3,197,651,000,000) (5,009,116,876,000) (251,000,000,000)

Tin chi mua cng ty con (111,592,399,851) 0 0 0 (2,866,077,367,641)Tin chi mua cc c phn khc (1,049,269,750,114) (2,460,222,718,617) (316,359,158,903) (1,237,044,601,500) (2,766,589,691,339)Tin chi mua ti sn khc (1,359,547,480,406) (361,300,000,000) 0 0 0Tin tm ng 0 0 0 (266,500,000,000)t cc u t 0 0 0 (1,900,000,000,000)Tin thu do nhng bn khonu tcng ty con

0 420,500,000,000 1,246,756,815,786 798,153,571,786 9,697,723,681,183

Tin thu do nhng bn khonu t khc

556,500,000,000 441,282,332,777 1,099,481,278,073 1,949,485,000,000 760,299,910,908


21/22

Li vay v c tc nhn 116,618,634,891 469,012,014,215 861,951,861,434 868,351,572,675 539,692,018,943S d tin cc cng ty con tingy sp nhp 0 0 22,227,863,252 0

NICF (5,558,004,408,735) (5,566,587,841,685) (1,392,105,600,719) (4,203,972,946,248) (8,892,466,466,788)

NFCFNhn vn gp ca c ng thius 471,600,000,000 722,028,823,556 274,487,652,842 282,413,000,000 3,256,960,309,647Tin thu t pht hnh c phiu,nhn vn gp t CSH

796,440,820,000 377,217,910,000 0 0 0

Tin chi mua c phiu qu (10,685,069,390) (25,657,830,000) 0 0 (2,953,978,284,083)Tin thu t ti pht hnh cphiu qu

0 1,578,713,500,000 0 1,133,344,359,000 0

Tin thu t pht hnh tri phiuv i vay 5,874,189,793,788 3,418,205,875,559 2,868,261,067,533 13,708,303,304,616 16,614,545,541,480

Tr n vay (379,711,814,727) (376,498,497,233) (3,186,066,741,944) (7,412,562,003,299) (11,103,071,677,430)Tin chi c tc (54,595,630,500) 0 (2,146,068,000,765) (71,035,327,899) (288,850,999,997)NFCF 6,697,238,099,171 5,694,009,781,882 (2,189,386,022,334) 7,640,463,332,418 5,525,604,889,617

Tng tin thun trong nm 1,400,101,355,057 88,069,648,580 (283,280,386,652) 385,126,585,095 5,917,178,418,477

Tin v tng ng tin unm

26,847,972,877 1,426,939,327,932 1,515,008,976,492 1,231,728,589,840 1,616,855,174,935

nh hng thay i t gi 0 0 0 6,109,883 0Tin v tng ng tincui nm 1,426,949,327,934 1,515,008,976,512 1,231,728,589,840 1,616,861,284,818 7,534,033,593,412

nh gi cphiu

Phng php P/E

P/E ngnh 20.18EPS d on 4,101

Gi c phiu 82,794

C phiu Gi th trng S lng CP EAT Gi tr vn hoSJS 17900 99,080,011 59,150,766,633 1,773,532,198,879DIG 15500 255,774,823 97,450,207,565 3,964,509,756,581BCI 19800 72,284,240 106,546,969,888 1,431,227,953,719NBB 22700 31,553,102 45,026,276,087 716,255,407,971HDG 27000 55,675,830 104,503,533,219 1,503,247,414,445NTL 13900 61,005,007 94,374,745,798 847,969,597,021Tng cng 507,052,499,190 10,236,742,328,617


22/22

Phng php FCFE

hon mc Nm 2009 Nm 2010 Nm 2011 Nm 2012 Nm 2013Li nhun sau thu tr li ch cac ng thiu s 898,642,166,913 2,306,898,786,227 821,285,875,959 1,571,311,686,488 6,779,512,147,953

hu hao v hu tr 28,467,057,299 71,137,087,685 127,845,062,118 473,956,758,653 589,659,772,264

D phng 118,595,508,178 (19,214,422,240) 12,221,478,840 4,065,415,576 53,343,819,374Chnh lch t gi 1,447,428,428 91,402,905,358 26,908,645,760 (3,763,603,143) 91,401,429,917Phn b li th thng mi 11,744,761,632 11,448,028,487 71,472,052,144 426,042,633,583 589,083,963,573Thay i vn lu ng (2,993,859,633,711) (2,083,365,091,965) 5,639,139,587,530 (2,802,839,719,270) (4,107,710,283,865)Tng/ Gim cc khon TTC ngn hn (3,280,677,340,846) 984,769,352,136 253,472,893,291 311,574,494,674 (1,680,411,052,154)Tng/ Gim cc khon phi thu (488,840,715,068) (4,668,725,726,100) 520,878,892,505 1,316,304,556,996 (780,223,911)Tng/ Gim hng tn kho 10,373,602,642 (2,249,363,483,892) (7,031,532,631,452) (8,498,307,966,821) (1,128,645,598,923)Tng/ Gim cc khon phi tr 744,509,617,363 3,733,438,110,580 12,046,851,733,986 5,573,067,324,094 1,073,831,496,383Tng/ Gim cc ti sn ngn hn khc 20,775,202,198 116,516,655,311 (150,531,300,800) (1,505,478,128,213) (2,371,704,905,260)Thay i TSC v TDH (3,165,142,386,469) (5,365,067,154,632) (4,884,045,980,398) (8,088,550,929,218) (5,519,921,834,188)Tng/ Gim ti sn di hn khc (222,811,373,247) (85,683,178,175) (291,262,245,485) (480,687,596,564) (88,685,034,767)

Tng/ Gim cc khon phi tr di hn 65,254,348,087 (44,083,615,681) 70,983,452,164 323,134,093,424 5,576,059,923,487Tin chi mua sm TSC & TDH (1,648,037,880,903) (4,667,000,360,776) (1,466,116,187,077) (2,921,880,550,078) (8,589,796,722,908)Tin chi mua ti sn khc (1,359,547,480,406) (361,300,000,000) 0 0 0Tin chi mua thm CP cc cng ty con 0 (207,000,000,000) (3,197,651,000,000) (5,009,116,876,000) (251,000,000,000)Tin tm ng theo hp ng hp tc kinhdoanh 0 0 0 0 (266,500,000,000)t cc d n u t 0 0 0 0 (1,900,000,000,000)Thay i n vay 5,468,880,027,222 2,227,986,793,053 (1,450,586,148,435) 11,794,584,988,031 5,554,969,620,143Thay i n vay ngn hn (379,711,814,727) 52,032,404,761 4,330,981,852,122 (1,559,143,427,243) (42,688,229,307)Thay i n vay di hn 5,848,591,841,949 2,175,954,388,292 (5,781,568,000,557) 13,353,728,415,274 5,597,657,849,450FCFE 368,774,929,492 (2,758,773,068,027) 364,240,573,518 3,374,807,230,700 4,030,338,635,171

Báo Cáo Vic Nhom

Documents

Transcript of Báo Cáo Vic Nhom