Bo co tm tt phc v cc nh hoch nh chnh sch

1 Bo co c bit ca Vit Nam v Qun l ri ro thin tai v cc hin tng cc oan nhm thc y thch ng vi bin i kh hu

BO CO C BIT CA VIT NAM V QUN L RI RO THIN TAI V CC HIN TNG CC OAN

NHM THC Y THCH NG VI BIN I KH HU

Nh xut bn Ti nguyn - Mi trng v Bn Vit Nam

Thng 2, 2015

Chu trch nhim xut bn: ThS. Kim Quang Minh

Chu trch nhim ni dung:

Trn Thc Koos Neefjes

Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn Chng trnh Pht trin Lin Hp Quc

v Bin i kh hu

Bin tp ni dung:

Trn Thc (Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v Bin i kh hu)

Koos Neefjes (Chng trnh Pht trin Lin Hp Quc)

T Th Thanh Hng (Chng trnh Pht trin Lin Hp Quc)

L Nguyn Tng (Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v Bin i kh hu)

Bo co SREX Vit Nam c trch dn nh sau:

IMHEN v UNDP. 2015. Bo co c bit ca Vit Nam v Qun l ri ro thin tai v hin tng

cc oan nhm thc y thch ng vi bin i kh hu [Trn Thc, Koos Neefjes, T Th Thanh

Hng, Nguyn Vn Thng, Mai Trng Nhun, L Quang Tr, L nh Thnh, Hunh Th Lan

Hng, V Thanh Sn, Nguyn Th Hin Thun, L Nguyn Tng], NXB Ti Nguyn - Mi trng

v Bn Vit Nam, H Ni, Vit Nam 2015.

Bn quyn thng 2 nm 2015

Chng trnh Pht trin Lin Hp Quc (UNDP)

25 - 29 Phan Bi Chu, H Ni, Vit Nam

Tt c cc quyn. Khng c phn no ca n phm ny c sao chp, lu truyn, truyn ti di

mi hnh thc, bng bt k phng tin no, in t, c kh, sao chp, ghi m m khng c s ng

ca UNDP.

Cc quan im th hin trong n phm ny l ca cc tc gi v khng nht thit phi i din cho

Lin Hp Quc, trong c UNDP hoc bt k thnh vin no ca Lin Hp Quc.

Vic thit k v trnh by bn trong ti liu ny khng c hm th hin bt k quan im no ca

Ban th k Lin Hp Quc hoc UNDP v tnh trng php l ca bt k quc gia, lnh th, thnh ph

hoc vng t hay thm quyn v nhng vn lin quan n vic phn nh ranh gii gia cc

quc gia.

Thit k v trnh by: Phan Hng Giang/ UNDP Vit Nam

In ti Vit Nam.

In 1000 cun, kh A4, ti Cng ty In n v Qung co Thng mi Khnh Dung

S quyt nh 06/Q-TMBVN. S KXB 374-2015/CXBIPH/01-96/Ba. M s ISBN 978-604-904-623-0.

BO CO C BIT CA VIT NAM V QUN L RI RO THIN TAI V CC HIN TNG CC OAN

NHM THC Y THCH NG VI BIN I KH HU

Nh xut bn Ti nguyn - Mi trng v Bn Vit Nam

ii

Li Cm n

Chng ti xin by t lng cm n ti Chng trnh pht trin Lin Hp Quc ti Vit Nam

(UNDP) v Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v Bin i kh hu (IMHEN) h tr k thut

v ti chnh cho vic xy dng bo co ny; Xin cm n cc n v, c nhn cung cp ti

liu, thng tin cng nh cc t chc v cc chuyn gia tham gia xy dng v hon thin bo

co.

c bit xin cm n:

ng Ch bin: Trn Thc, Koos Neefjes.

Nhn xt phn bin ton bo co: T Vn Trng, L Bc Hunh, L Nguyn Tng.

Tc gi v nhn xt phn bin ca cc chng:

Chng 1: Koos Neefjes, Trn Thc, T Th Thanh Hng. Phn bin: L Nguyn

Tng, T Vn Trng.

Chng 2: T Th Thanh Hng, Koos Neefjes, Bch Tn Sinh. Phn bin: Trn Thc,

L Bc Hunh.

Chng 3: Nguyn Vn Thng, Mai Vn Khim, Nguyn Vn Hip, Nguyn ng Mu,

Trn nh Trng, V Vn Thng, Hong c Cng, Nguyn Xun Hin,

Trn Vn Tr, Trng c Tr. Phn bin: Nguyn c Ng, Nguyn Vn

Tuyn.

Chng 4: Mai Trng Nhun, Phan Vn Tn, L Quang Tr, Trng Vit Dng, Cng

Thung, L Vn Thng, Trn Mnh Liu, Nguyn Tin Giang, Minh c,

Ng c Thnh, Nguyn Th Thu H, L Anh Tun, Nguyn Hiu Trung. Phn

bin: Trng Quang Hc, Jenty Kirsch-Wood, Pamela McElwee

Chng 5: L Quang Tr, L Anh Tun, Nguyn Hiu Trung, ng Kiu Nhn, Vn Phm

ng Tr, Nguyn Thanh Bnh, o Trng T, Lm Th Thu Su, Ngy Th

Khanh, inh Dip Anh Tun. Phn bin: o Xun Hc, Ian Wilderspin,

Michael R. DiGregorio.

Chng 6: L nh Thnh, Ng L Long, Nguyn Mai ng, Trn Thanh Tng. Phn

bin: o Xun Hc, Jenty Kirsch-Wood, Ian Wilderspin.

Chng 7: Hunh Th Lan Hng, Trn Thc, Tin Anh, Phm Vn Tn, Nguyn

Hong Thy, o Minh Trang, L Nguyn Tng, Bo Thnh, Trng c

Tr, Phng Th Thu Trang, Chu Th Thanh Hng. Phn bin: L Hu T.

Chng 8: V Thanh Sn, Nguyn Chu Hi, Trn Hu Ngh, Bi Cng Quang, Nguyn

Danh Sn, L Vn Thng, Hong Vn Thng, L Anh Tun, Nghim Phng

Tuyn. Phn bin: Trng Quang Hc, o Xun Hc, Pamela McElwee.

Chng 9: Nguyn Th Hin Thun, Trn Thc, Ng Th Vn Anh, Nguyn Xun Hin,

Phan Mnh Tun, H Th Qunh Nga, Trn Thanh Thy, Nguyn Vn i,

Nguyn L Giang, ng Thu Phng, ng Quang Thnh, Trn Vn Tr, Cao

Hong Hi. Phn bin: L Hu T, V Minh Hi.

iii

Cc tc gi t cc t chc sau:

Chng trnh Pht trin Lin Hp Quc ti Vit Nam

Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v Bin i kh hu

Vin Hn lm Khoa hc X hi Vit Nam

Vin Chin lc v Chnh sch, Khoa hc v Cng ngh

Vin Ti nguyn v Mi trng bin

i hc Quc gia H Ni

Cc Kh tng Thy vn v Bin i kh hu

Trung tm Kh tng Thy vn Quc gia

Trng i hc Khoa hc T nhin

Trng i hc Hu

Trng i hc Cn Th

Trng i hc Thy li

Trung tm T vn Pht trin Bn vng Ti nguyn nc v Thch nghi BKH

Trung tm Pht trin Sng to xanh

Trung tm Nghin cu Ti nguyn v Mi trng

Trung tm Nghin cu Pht trin X hi

Chng trnh Tropenbos Quc t ti Vit Nam

T chc Care Quc t ti Vit Nam

Nhm lm vic v Bin i kh hu - CCWG

Ban bin son

1

PHN 1. BO CO TM TT PHC V

CC NH HOCH NH

CHNH SCH

2

SPM Bo co tm tt phc v

cc nh hoch nh chnh sch

Cc tc gi

Trn Thc (Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v BKH)

Koos Neefjes (Chng trnh Pht trin Lin Hp Quc)

T Th Thanh Hng (Chng trnh Pht trin Lin Hp Quc)

L Nguyn Tng (Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v BKH)

Bo co tm tt phc v cc nh hoch nh chnh sch c trch dn nh sau:

IMHEN v UNDP. 2015. Bo co tm tt phc v cc nh hoch nh chnh sch.

Trong Bo co c bit ca Vit Nam v QLRRTT v hin tng cc oan nhm thc

y thch ng vi BKH [Trn Thc, Koos Neefjes, T Th Thanh Hng, Nguyn Vn

Thng, Mai Trng Nhun, L Quang Tr, L nh Thnh, Hunh Th Lan Hng, V

Thanh Sn, Nguyn Th Hin Thun, L Nguyn Tng], NXB Ti Nguyn Mi trng

v Bn Vit Nam, H Ni, 2015, trang 2-27.

3

Mc Lc

A. Bi cnh .......................................................................................................................... 4

B. Quan trc mc phi by trc him ha, tnh d b tn thng, cc oan kh hu, tc

ng v thit hi do thin tai ................................................................................................... 7

Mc phi by trc him ha v tnh d b tn thng.................................................. 8

Cc oan kh hu v cc tc ng ...................................................................................... 8

Thit hi do thin tai .......................................................................................................... 11

C. Qun l ri ro thin tai v thch ng vi bin i kh hu: Kinh nghim vi cc oan kh

hu trong qu kh ................................................................................................................ 11

D. Cc oan kh hu trong tng lai, tc ng v nhng thit hi do thin tai ................... 13

Cc oan kh hu v cc tc ng .................................................................................... 13

Tc ng ca con ngi v nhng thit hi do thin tai .................................................... 16

E. Qun l thay i ri ro cc oan kh hu v thin tai ..................................................... 17

ngha vi pht trin bn vng ........................................................................................ 19

Tm tt cc hot ng u tin ........................................................................................... 20

Ti liu tham kho ................................................................................................................ 20

4

A. Bi cnh

Bo co tm tt phc v cc nh hoch nh chnh sch (SPM) trnh by nhng kt qu chnh

ca Bo co c bit ca Vit Nam v Qun l ri ro thin tai (QLRRTT) v cc hin tng cc

oan nhm thc y thch ng vi bin i kh hu (BKH) (SREX Vit Nam). SREX Vit

Nam c xy dng da trn Bo co c bit ca y ban Lin chnh ph v BKH v

QLRRTT v cc hin tng cc oan nhm thc y thch ng vi BKH (SREX) (IPCC,

2012a). Tng t nh vy, SPM ny c xy dng da trn SPM ca bo co SREX (IPCC,

2012b).

SREX Vit Nam phn tch tnh hnh Vit Nam theo nhng kt qu ca bo co SREX ton

cu. SREX Vit Nam nh gi cc ti liu ca Vit Nam v BKH, cc hin tng thi tit v

kh hu cc oan ('cc oan kh hu) v tc ng ca nhng hin tng ny i vi x hi v

pht trin bn vng. SREX Vit Nam nh gi s tng tc ca cc yu t kh hu, mi trng

v con ngi c th dn n nhng tc ng v thin tai, v cc phng n qun l cc loi

hnh ri ro, nhm mc tiu thc y thch ng vi BKH v qun l cc hin tng cc oan v

thin tai Vit Nam.

Mt s khi nim v cc nh ngha chnh s dng trong SREX Vit Nam c trnh by trong

Hp SPM-1.

Cc c tnh v mc nghim trng ca cc tc ng do cc oan kh hu ph thuc vo

mc cc oan v mc phi by trc him ha v tnh d b tn thng. Trong bo co

ny, cc tc ng bt li c coi l thin tai khi gy ra nhng thit hi trn din rng v nhng

thay i nghim trng trong cc chc nng bnh thng ca cc cng ng hay x hi. Cc

oan kh hu, mc phi by trc him ha, tnh d b tn thng b nh hng bi mt

lot cc yu t, bao gm c BKH do con ngi gy ra, dao ng kh hu t nhin, v pht

trin kinh t - x hi (Hnh SPM-1). QLRRTT v thch ng vi BKH tp trung vo vic gim

mc phi by trc him ha v tnh d b tn thng v tng kh nng chng chu vi

nhng tc ng bt li tim tng ca cc cc oan kh hu, v nhng ri ro khng th loi b

hon ton (Hnh SPM-2). Thng qua qun l tt cc h sinh thi, h nhn sinh v cc qu trnh

pht trin khc, c th gim nh cc ri ro v trong trng hp mt hin tng thc s xy ra

th vn c th gim nh cc tc ng ca n (Chng 4, 5, 6, 8).

Bo co ny tch hp cc quan im t cc cng ng khc nhau Vit Nam, bao gm cc

nh kh hu, cc nh nghin cu v tc ng ca kh hu v thch ng vi BKH v cng ng

QLRRTT. Mi cng ng u c nhng quan im v nhn thc khc nhau. SREX Vit Nam

c gng t c s ng thun v thng nht nhng quan im v nhn thc .

5

Hp SPM-1. Cc khi nim chnh c s dng trong bo co SREX Vit Nam

Bin i kh hu: L s thay i trong trng thi ca kh hu c th c xc nh (v d nh s

dng cc kim tra thng k) bi nhng thay i trong gi tr trung bnh v/hoc s thay i thuc

tnh ca n, v trong thi gian di, thng l vi thp k hoc lu hn. BKH c th l do qu trnh

t nhin bn trong hoc do tc ng t bn ngoi, hoc thay i lin tc do con ngi n cc

thnh phn ca kh quyn hay trong s dng t.

Cc oan kh hu (hin tng kh hu/thi tit cc oan): L s xut hin gi tr cao hn (hoc

thp hn) gi tr ngng ca mt yu t thi tit hoc kh hu, gn cc gii hn trn (hay di) ca

dy cc gi tr quan trc c ca yu t . n gin, c thi tit cc oan v kh hu cc

oan c gi chung l kh hu cc oan.

Mc phi by trc him ha: Mc phi by (trc him ha) c s dng ch s

hin din (theo v tr) ca con ngi, sinh k, cc dch v mi trng v cc ngun ti nguyn, c

s h tng, hoc cc ti sn kinh t, x hi hoc vn ha nhng ni c th chu nhng nh

hng bt li bi cc hin tng t nhin v v th c th l i tng ca nhng tn hi, mt mt,

h hng tim tng trong tng lai (IPCC, 2012 trang 32).

Tnh trng d b tn thng l xu hng hay khuynh hng b nh hng xu. Khuynh hng

ny cu thnh mt c tnh bn trong ca cc yu t nh hng. Trong lnh vc ri ro thin tai, iu

ny bao gm cc c tnh ca mt ngi hoc mt nhm v tnh hnh ca h c nh hng n

kh nng ca h d on, i ph, chng li, v phc hi i vi cc tc ng c hi ca hin

tng vt l (Wisner v nnk, 2004). Tnh trng d b tn thng l kt qu ca ngun ti lc x hi,

iu kin lch s, kinh t, chnh tr, vn ha, th ch, ti nguyn thin nhin v iu kin mi trng

v cc quy trnh (IPCC, 2012 trang 31).

Thin tai: Cc him ha t nhin tng tc vi cc iu kin d b tn thng ca x hi lm thay

i nghim trng trong chc nng bnh thng ca mt cng ng hay mt x hi, dn n cc nh

hng bt li rng khp i vi con ngi, vt cht, kinh t hay mi trng, i hi phi ng ph

khn cp p ng cc nhu cu cp bch ca con ngi v c th phi cn n s h tr t bn

ngoi phc hi (IPCC, 2012 trang 31).

QLRRTT c nh ngha trong bo co ny l cc qu trnh xy dng, thc hin v nh gi chin

lc, chnh sch v cc bin php nng cao s hiu bit v ri ro thin tai, thc y GNRRTT v

chuyn giao, thc hin ci tin lin tc trong phng chng, ng ph v phc hi sau thin tai, vi

mc ch r rng tng cng an ninh cho con ngi, hnh phc, cht lng cuc sng v pht

trin bn vng (IPCC, 2012 trang 34).

Trong h thng x hi, thch ng l qu trnh iu chnh theo kh hu thc t hoc d tnh hn

ch thit hi hoc tn dng cc c hi c li. Trong h thng t nhin, thch ng l qu trnh iu

chnh theo kh hu hin ti v theo nhng nh hng ca kh hu. S can thip ca con ngi c

th to iu kin thun li cho vic iu chnh theo kh hu d tnh (IPCC, 2012 trang 36).

Kh nng chng chu c nh ngha l kh nng ca mt h thng v cc hp phn ca n c

th phn on, hp th, iu chnh v vt qua nhng nh hng ca mt hin tng nguy him

mt cch kp thi v hiu qu k c kh nng gi gn, hi phc v tng cng cc cu trc v chc

nng c bn quan trng ca h thng (IPCC, 2012 trang 34).

6

Hnh SPM-1. Minh ha cc khi nim chnh ca bo co SREX Vit Nam

Bo co nh gi mc phi by trc him ha v kh nng d b tn thng trc cc hin

tng kh hu cc oan, quyt nh n cc tc ng v kh nng xy ra thin tai (ri ro thin tai)

ra sao.

Hnh SPM-2. Cc cch tip cn thch ng v QLRRTT trong iu kin kh hu ang

bin i

KH HU

Hin tng

kh hu / thi

tit cc oan

Mc phi

by trc

him ha

Tnh d b

tn thng

RI RO

THIN TAI

Qun l ri ro thin tai

Thch ng vi BKH

BKH do con ngi gy ra

PHT TRIN

Pht thi kh nh knh

Thin tai

Bin i t nhin

Chun b, ng

ph v Phc hi

Cch tip cn

Chuyn giao v

chia s ri ro

Gim tnh d b

tn thng

Gim mc phi

by trc him ha

Tng cng kh

nng chng chu

thay i ri ro

Chuyn i

7

Mc phi by trc him ha v tnh d b tn thng l nhng yu t quan trng

quyt nh ri ro thin tai v tc ng khi ri ro xy ra. Mt cn bo c th c tc ng rt

khc nhau ty thuc vo a im v thi gian cn bo b, v d: nm 1997, cn bo Linda

b vo phn pha nam ca BSCL v gy ra nhiu thng vong v thit hi c bit nghim

trng cho vng ny (Mc 9.2.1). Cc hin tng cc oan tc ng n cc h thng nhn

sinh, h sinh thi, h thng t nhin c th l kt qu ca cc hin tng thi tit hoc kh hu

cc oan ring l (Mc 4.2.1). Tc ng nghim trng cng c th l hu qu ca cc hin

tng khng phi cc oan nhng xy ra vng c mc phi by v tnh d b tn thng

cao hoc t hp ca cc hin tng, hoc t hp cc tc ng lin hon ca chng. V d, hin

tng nng nng ko di kt hp vi thi tit khng ma c th dn n hn hn (Ninh Thun,

Bnh Thun, Ty Nguyn), v chy rng (Ty Bc, Ty Nguyn, Ty Nam B) gy thit hi

ln cho nhiu lnh vc kinh t - x hi, nht l nng nghip v do cc vng ny cng l vng

b tn thng nhiu. Vng BSCL ang b cc tc ng kp do c yu t BKH v do cc

hot ng pht trin thng ngun, bao gm c vic xy p. Trong tng lai vo ma kh,

tnh trng xm nhp mn BSCL s cng trm trng hn do s pht trin khng hp l cng

nh nc bin dng. (Mc 4.2.1)

Cc hin tng thi tit hay kh hu cc oan v khng cc oan nh hng n tnh

d tn thng trong tng lai bng cch thay i kh nng chng chu, nng lc i

ph v kh nng thch ng (Mc 1.1.2, 2.4.2). C th l, cc tc ng tch ly ca thin tai

cp a phng hay cp vng c th nh hng ng k n nhng la chn sinh k v cc

ngun lc, v d vng BSCL: l lt, xm nhp mn v xi l b sng nh hng n sinh k

v e da tnh mng, ti sn ca ngi dn, mt ni c tr v phi di di n cc vng khc

(Mc 5.1).

BKH dn ti nhng thay i trong tn sut, cng , phm vi khng gian, thi on

v thi gian ca cc hin tng thi tit v kh hu cc oan, v c th dn n cc hin

tng thi tit v kh hu khc nghit cha tng thy. Nhng thay i mang tnh cc oan

c th ko theo nhng thay i trong gi tr trung bnh, phng sai, hoc hnh dng ca

phn b xc sut. Mt s cc oan kh hu (nh hn hn Nam Trung b) c th l hu qu

kp ca kh hu v thi tit khng phi l cc oan khi c nh gi mt cch c lp. Nhiu

hin tng thi tit v kh hu cc oan c th l kt qu ca dao ng kh hu t nhin. Bin

thin t nhin s l mt yu t quan trng trong vic nh hnh cho cc cc oan trong tng

lai do nh hng ca BKH do con ngi gy ra. Nhn chung, cc hin tng cc oan khng

n gin v khng phi ch l do BKH gy ra, bi v nhng hin tng vn lun c kh

nng xy ra khi khng c BKH (Mc 1.2.2.2).

B. Quan trc mc phi by trc him ha, tnh d b

tn thng, cc oan kh hu, tc ng v thit hi do

thin tai

Bng SPM-1 trnh by cc v d Vit Nam v cch quan st v d bo xu hng ca

mc phi by trc him ha, tnh d b tn thng v kh hu cc oan c

gii quyt nh th no v c th thng tin cho cc chin lc, chnh sch v cc bin

php qun l ri ro v thch ng (Chng 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9).

Hu qu ca tc ng do kh hu cc oan v nguy c tim tng ca him ha ph thuc vo

chnh hin tng kh hu cc oan v mc phi by trc cc him ha, tnh trng d b

8

tn thng ca con ngi v thin nhin. Nhng thay i quan st c v cc oan kh hu

phn nh cc tc ng ca BKH do con ngi gy nn v nhng dao ng kh hu t nhin,

vi nhng thay i trong mc phi by trc him ha v tnh d b tn thng bi c hai

yu t kh hu v phi kh hu. (Hnh SPM-3) (Mc 4.2.2)

Hnh SPM-3. Ch s ri ro: kh nng i ph vi thin tai (a) v him ha tim tng

(b) ca Vit Nam

a) b)

Mc phi by trc him ha v tnh d b tn thng

Mc phi by trc him ha v tnh d b tn thng c tnh bin ng, khc nhau

trn quy m thi gian v khng gian, v ph thuc vo cc yu t kinh t, x hi, a l,

nhn sinh, vn ha, th ch, qun tr v mi trng. Cc c nhn v cng ng b phi by

v b tn thng khc nhau do s khng ng u v mc giu c, v trnh gio dc, cc

khim khuyt, tnh trng sc khe, cng nh gii tnh, tui tc, tng lp x hi, v cc c im

x hi v vn ha khc (Mc 1.1.2, 2.2, 2.5, 4.2.1, 5.5.1, 8.2.3, 9.2.11.2).

M hnh nh c, th ha, v nhng thay i trong iu kin kinh t - x hi nh

hng n cc xu hng quan st c ca mc phi by trc him ha v tnh

d b tn thng i vi cc cc oan kh hu. V d, cc khu nh c cc vng ven bin,

bao gm c cc khu vc duyn hi min Trung, vng BSCL v cc khu nh c cc vng

min ni pha Bc v Ty Nguyn b phi by trc him ha v d b tn thng i vi cc

cc oan kh hu. Tng trng nhanh chng ca cc thnh ph v th trn dn n cc cng

ng th d b tn thng, v d ti thnh ph H Ch Minh (Mc 2.5.1, 8.5.2.1).

Cc oan kh hu v cc tc ng

Theo bo co SREX (IPCC, 2012b) c bng chng cho thy rng hot ng ca con ngi

c nh hng lm thay i mt s cc oan kh hu nh lm tng nng kh nh knh trong

9

kh quyn. C nhiu kh nng l nhng nh hng do con ngi gy nn dn n s tng ln

ca nhit ti thp v ti cao ngy quy m ton cu. mc khng nh trung bnh c

th thy rng cc hot ng ca con ngi cng gp phn tng lng ma cc oan quy

m ton cu. C nhiu kh nng l cc hot ng ca con ngi cng tc ng ti mc nc

cc i ven bin do lm tng mc nc bin trung bnh.

S cha chc chn trong cc ti liu quan trc v nhng cn bo lch s, s hiu bit cha

y v cc c ch vt l v mi lin h gia cc thng s bo vi BKH, kt hp vi mc

dao dng ca s lng cc cn bo nn kh khng nh v s thay i cc thuc tnh hot

ng ca cc cn bo do cc hot ng ca con ngi. Rt kh c th xc nh mt hin

tng cc oan n l no l do BKH do con ngi gy nn.

C nhng bng chng quan st c v s thay i cc kh hu cc oan Vit Nam.

Cc hin tng cc oan l him gp, c ngha l c rt t d liu c sn nh gi v s

thay i tn sut v cng ca cc hin tng ny. Cc hin tng cng t xy ra, cng kh

xc nh nhng thay i trong di hn. Cc phn sau y cung cp chi tit v cc cc oan kh

hu c th t cc quan trc ti Vit Nam (Chng 3).

C s st gim ng k trn ton quc v s ngy v m lnh trong giai on 1961-2010,

c bit l min Bc v Ty Nguyn. D liu 1981-2009 cho thy hin tng sng mui xy

ra mun hn, thi gian ko di ngn hn v s ngy c sng mui gim nhanh chng

trong thp k qua. S ngy rt m, rt hi c xu th gim, c bit l trong hai thp k

gn y. Tuy nhin, s lng cc t rt m, rt hi li c s bin i kh phc tp v

bin ng mnh t nm ny qua nm khc. c bit, trong nhng nm gn y xut hin

nhng t rt m ko di k lc cng nh nhng t rt hi c nhit kh thp. Hin tng

bng tuyt xut hin vi tn sut nhiu hn cc vng ni cao pha Bc nh Sa Pa, Mu

Sn.

S ngy nng tng hu ht cc khu vc, c bit l ng Bc, ng bng Bc B v Ty

Nguyn, nhng gim mt s trm thuc Ty Bc, Nam Trung B v khu vc pha Nam. S

t nng tng ln trn ton quc (Chng 3; Hnh SPM-4).

Ma cc oan c xu th bin i khc nhau trong giai on 1961-2010. Xu th gim hu ht

cc trm thuc Ty Bc, ng Bc, ng bng Bc B, trong khi cc vng kh hu khc c xu

th tng phn ln cc trm. Ma cc oan thng xy ra trong giai on t thng T ti

thng By, pha Bc sm hn v pha Nam mun hn (Mc 3.3.2).

Ch c th khng nh mc tin cy trung bnh rng cc vng trn th gii tri qua

nhng t hn hn cc k khc nghit v trong thi gian di. Cn Vit Nam, s ngy kh

lin tc tng ln trong giai on 1961-2010 min Bc, gim i min Nam (Mc 3.5.2). Tng

lng ma cng gim min Bc v tng ln min Nam. Tuy nhin, trong giai on 1996-

2010, gi ma ma h n sm hn khong 10-15 ngy so vi giai on 1981-1995, dn ti

pha Nam tng lng ma trong thng 5, nhng li gim trong thng 6 (Mc 3.4.1).

Ri ro xm nhp mn tng cao, c bit l vng BSCL. Di tc ng ca nc bin

dng, hn hn khc nghit, s ngy kh lin tc tng ln v thay i ngun nc thng lu

do BKH. h lu cc h thng sng Hng - Thi Bnh, ng Nai v M Cng, mn xm

nhp vo t lin su hn. Vo cui th k 21, chiu su xm nhp ng vi mn 1 c th

tng ln trn 20 km trn cc sng sng ng Nai, sng Tin, sng Hu, xp x 10 km trn sng

Hng - Thi Bnh (Mc 4.2.1).

10

Hnh SPM-4. lng cc t nng nng hng nm trn c nc

Tuy vi tin cy thp nhng trn ton cu cc cn bo c chiu hng gia tng (tc l

cng , tn sut, khong thi gian xy ra) trong giai on di va qua (40 nm hoc lu

hn). Vit Nam, trong giai on 1961-2010, cha c bng chng v s thay i tn sut ca

cc cn bo bao gm c bo v p thp nhit i b vo t lin. Tuy nhin, cc cn bo

trung bnh c xu hng gim nhng s lng cc cn bo c cng mnh tng ln. Ma

ma bo hin nay c xu hng kt thc mun hn trc y v nhiu cn bo b vo khu

vc pha Nam trong nhng nm gn y (Mc 3.4.2).

Trn ton th gii t c bng chng cho thy s thay i bin v tn sut ca cc trn l do

BKH, bi v c nhng hn ch v s liu l lt, v c nhng tc ng ca nhng thay i

trong s dng t v cng trnh, v vy, nh hng ca BKH thng khng r rng. S liu

ca hu ht cc sng min Bc v Bc Trung B Vit Nam trong 3 thp k qua cho thy c

s gia tng v s cc trn l v lu lng nh l, ngoi tr gim nh l sng Hng v sng

Thi Bnh do c s iu tit l ca cc h cha ln. S liu ca cc sng min Trung trong 3

thp k qua cng cho thy c s gia tng v s lng l hng nm, ngoi tr h lu sng Ba

c th l do iu tit ca h cha pha thng ngun. Cng c s gia tng ng k v s

lng cc cn l trn sng ng Nai trong 3 thp k qua, trong ch yu do nhng thay i

v c s h tng cc lu vc sng. Mc nc trn sng Cu Long trong 30 nm qua cng

cho thy s gia tng r rt v cao nh l, mt phn c lin quan n BKH, nhng vic xy

dng cc p ln thng lu c th lm gim nh l trong tng lai (Mc 3.5.4).

C kh nng l c s gia tng mc nc cao bt thng vng ven bin do c s gia

tng mc nc bin trung bnh trn ton th gii cng nh Vit Nam. Theo s liu quan trc,

mc nc trung bnh ven bin Vit Nam ang gia tng vi tc khong 2,8 mm mi nm,

nhng theo s liu t v tinh mc tng trung bnh trong ton khu vc Bin ng tng khong

4,7 mm/nm trong giai on 1993-2010. Mc nc bin cao nht hng nm, bao gm c nh

hng ca thy triu, bo v sng, ang gia tng hu ht cc trm quan trc ven bin. Cc

nghin cu gn y cho thy mc nc bin cc oan (nc dng do bo do s kt hp ca

bo v thy triu) c th s vt qu chiu cao thit k hin ti ca h thng bin mt cch

thng xuyn hn (Mc 3.5.6).

11

Thit hi do thin tai

Thit hi kinh t do thin tai lin quan n thi tit v kh hu tng ln, nhng c dao

ng ln v khng gian v gia cc nm. Thit hi do thin tai lin quan ti thi tit v kh

hu trong vi thp k qua c phn nh phn ln thit hi trc tip n ti sn, quy ra tin

v c phn b khng ng u trn ton cu. c tnh thit hi GDP hng nm v thng

vong i vi cc thin tai lin quan n kh hu c tnh ton trong ch s ton cu, trong

Vit Nam c xp th by trong giai on 1994-2013 (Mc 2.2.2). c tnh thit hi

thng l thp hn so vi thc t, v nhiu tc ng, chng hn nh s ngi cht, di sn vn

ha, v cc dch v h sinh thi, rt kh nh gi v quy ra s tin thit hi, v do nhng

mt mt ny t c phn nh trong cc c tnh v thit hi. Tc ng phi kinh t cng nh

cc tc ng kinh t gin tip c th rt quan trng trong mt s lnh vc, ngnh, nhng thng

khng c tnh (Mc 4.1, 4.2.2, 4.3.5).

Tng mc phi by trc him ha ca con ngi v ti sn l nguyn nhn chnh

ca s gia tng thit hi kinh t di hn do thin tai lin quan n thi tit v kh hu.

iu ny cng ang xy ra ti Vit Nam nh cc khu nh c mi ca thnh ph v nng thn,

cc khu du lch ven bin v cc khu cng nghip, c s h tng giao thng v nui trng thy

sn ang pht trin trong khu vc b phi by trc bo v l lt. Xu hng di hn v thit

hi kinh t do thin tai c lin quan n s pht trin v tng dn s, tuy khng th quy

ht cho BKH, nhng vai tr ca BKH cng khng th loi tr. c bit cc nc ang

pht trin nh Vit Nam nhng gi tr kinh t ca ti sn phi by trc him ha ngy cng

tng nhanh, cn nhng thay i v cc oan kh hu th tng i chm v tc ng ca

BKH i vi cc cc oan kh hu cha tht s r rng (Mc 3.1).

C. Qun l ri ro thin tai v thch ng vi bin i kh hu:

Kinh nghim vi cc oan kh hu trong qu kh

Nhng kinh nghim v cc oan kh hu trong qu kh gp phn hiu thm v cc cch tip

cn trong QLRRTT v thch ng hiu qu vi cc oan kh hu qun l ri ro.

Mc nghim trng ca cc tc ng do cc oan kh hu ph thuc rt nhiu vo

mc phi by trc him ha v tnh d b tn thng vi cc cc oan kh hu (Mc

2.2.2). Tm hiu v bn cht a din ca c mc phi by trc him ha v tnh d b tn

thng l mt iu kin tin quyt xc nh cc hin tng thi tit v kh hu gp phn

nh th no vo s xut hin ca thin tai, phc tho v thc hin cc chin lc thch ng

v QLRRTT c hiu qu. Gim tnh d b tn thng l mt yu t chung quan trng ca

QLRRTT ti Vit Nam, nh Chng trnh Quc gia QLRRTT da vo cng ng (Mc 5.4,

5.6.2, 6.3.1.2, 6.5.1.2). Gim mc phi by trc him ha l mt thnh phn quan trng

ca chnh sch hin hnh, v d ti nh c ngi dn sng trong vng d b ngp lt hoc xi

l (Mc 2.5.2, 5.2.2).

Cch thc, chnh sch v kt qu pht trin l cc yu t quan trng nh hnh ri ro

thin tai v s gia tng ri ro c th c do s pht trin sai lch (Mc 2.2.2, 2.5). Mc

phi by trc him ha v tnh d b tn thng cao c th l kt qu ca qu trnh th ha

nhanh v khng c quy hoch trong khu vc him ha v thiu cc la chn sinh k cho

ngi ngho. Cc th trn v cc thnh ph ven bin cc vng t thp cn c xem xt

chuyn hng pht trin th cc khu vc t him ha hn. Nhiu khu ti nh c v nhng

ngi dn ti nh c th cn phi ti nh li nu nhng ni mi khng m bo sinh k bn

12

vng v mi trng sng khng n nh di tc ng ca thin tai (Mc 1.3.2, 4.3.4.1).

GNRRTT hiu qu i hi phi lng ghp QLRRTT v thch ng vi BKH trong chin lc v

k hoch pht trin kinh t - x hi quc gia, cng nh k hoch ngnh v vic trin khai cc

chin lc v k hoch phi h tr cc khu vc v cc nhm d b tn thng (Mc 6.3).

Vic qun l thin tai v kh hu cc oan cp a phng c mt ngha ln trong

vic nng cao kh nng chng chu, thch ng, v phc hi trc nhng hin tng cc

oan. Tuy nhin, thiu cc s liu v thin tai v GNRRTT c th gy cn tr vic ci

thin gim nh tnh d b tn thng a phng (Mc 5.7). Cc h thng v cc chng

trnh QLRRTT v thch ng vi BKH quc gia phi lng ghp nhng s liu cng nh s

khng chc chn ca nhng thay i d tnh v mc phi by trc him ha, tnh d b tn

thng v cc hin tng cc oan. Hu ht cc tnh xy dng k hoch hnh ng ng

ph vi BKH, trong c cp n vic lng ghp BKH vo cc quy hoch pht trin kinh

t - x hi ca a phng mnh. V d An Giang l ni u ngun ca BSCL v thng

xuyn b tc ng bi l sng Cu Long v thnh cng trong vic lng ghp QLRRTT vi

chnh sch pht trin kinh t - x hi ca tnh, ng ch nht l chng trnh xy dng cm

tuyn dn c vt l. y l ch trng hon ton ng n, ph hp vi thc tin vng sng

nc BSCL. Sau An Giang th Ngh An l tnh xy dng c s tay Hng dn thch

ng vi BKH, vn s dng t, gii v pht trin cng ng trong lp k hoch pht trin

kinh t - x hi cp x (Mc 6.3.2.1).

Bt bnh ng nh hng ti kh nng i ph v thch ng ca a phng, v t ra

nhng thch thc cho QLRRTT v thch ng t cp a phng n cp quc gia. S bt

bnh ng v kinh t - x hi, v d v sc khe v s khc bit trong vic tip cn sinh k hoc

s dng t v cc yu t khc quyt nh tnh d b tn thng ca cc h gia nh v cng

ng (Mc 5.5.1.1). Vit Nam phi i mt vi thch thc trong vic nh gi, tm hiu v ng

ph vi nhng thay i c d kin v cc oan kh hu, v d cha tch hp y tnh

d b tn thng lin quan ti kh hu vo cc chnh sch v chng trnh xa i gim ngho

v h thng bo tr x hi (Chng 5, 8).

Phc hi sau thin tai v ti thit mang li c hi cho vic gim ri ro thin tai lin quan

ti thi tit v kh hu v nng cao nng lc thch ng. Bt k n lc no xy dng li

nh , xy dng li c s h tng, v phc hi sinh k nn trnh vic li b phi by trc

nhng him ha tng xy ra v tng tnh d b tn thng ca ngi dn v cng ng v

ng gp vo kh nng chng chu lu di v pht trin bn vng. (Mc 5.2.3)

C ch chia s ri ro ti a phng v quc gia, cng nh quy m quc t c th lm

tng kh nng chng chu vi cc oan kh hu. Cc c ch bao gm cc c ch chia s

ri ro khng chnh thc v truyn thng, bo him vi m, bo him, v ti bo him quc t

(Mc 5.6.3, 7.4.4.2, 9.2.10.2). Nhng c ch ny c lin kt vi GNRRTT v thch ng vi

BKH bng cch cung cp cc phng tin ti tr, phc hi sinh k, v ti thit; gim tnh

d b tn thng; cung cp cc kin thc v cc kin ngh gim ri ro (Mc 5.2.3).

Tnh bin ng v thi gian v khng gian ca mc phi by trc him ha v tnh

d b tn thng rt quan trng v vic xy dng v thc hin cc chin lc v chnh

sch thch ng vi BKH v QLRRTT nhm gim ri ro trong ngn hn, v cng phi

trnh tng mc phi by trc him ha v tnh d b tn thng di hn. V d, h

thng iu c th lm gim mc phi by trc l bng cch bo v trc tip, nhng

cng c th lm tng l lt cc a phng khc (nh ang din ra BSCL) hn na h

13

thng iu mang li cm gic an ton, khuyn khch cc m hnh nh c c th lm tng ri

ro di hn (Mc 2.6.2, 5.3.2).

QLRRTT v thch ng vi BKH it Nam c thc hin th o chiu t cp Quc

gia xung n cc a phng ng thi, cc phn nh c th ca tng a phng

cp di s c phn nh ln cp trn iu chnh cc chin lc, qua gi p mi

quan h hai chiu ny hot ng c hu hiu hn (Mc 5.1).

S kt hp cht ch hn gia QLRRTT v thch ng vi BKH, cng vi lng ghp c

hai vo cc chnh sch v chng trnh pht trin quc gia v a phng, c th cung

cp cc li ch tt c cc cp (Mc 5.4.2, 5.6.1, 6.3, 7.2.4, 8.6.2). Gii quyt an sinh x hi,

cht lng cuc sng, c s h tng, sinh k v kt hp cch tip cn a him ha trong lp

k hoch v cc hnh ng i vi thin tai trong ngn hn, to iu kin cho thch ng di hn

vi cc oan kh hu ngy cng c quc t cng nhn. Chin lc v chnh sch c hiu

qu hn khi tha nhn cc mu thun, cc gi tr u tin khc nhau v mc tiu chnh sch

cnh tranh.

H thng QLRRTT ca Vit Nam l ct li v nng lc ng ph vi xu th gia tng mc

phi by trc him ha, tnh d b tn thng, kh hu cc oan, nhng phi phi

hp vi cc cng ng hnh ng v GNRRTT v thch ng vi BKH. H thng QLRRTT

quc gia vi Ban ch o Phng chng lt bo Trung ng (BCPCLBT) v cc Ban ch huy

phng chng lt bo ti a phng (BCHPCLB) bao gm nhiu c quan chnh ph cp trung

ng v a phng: bao gm Mt trn t quc, Hi Lin hip Ph n v Hi Ch thp Vit

Nam. Ngoi ra cn c Ban Ch o quc gia v BKH, cng ng hnh ng v thch ng vi

BKH. H thng ny cn phi hp vi cc phng ban v cc c quan hot ng trong lnh vc

v bo tr x hi (v d ti nh c), cng nh khu vc t nhn, cc c quan nghin cu v cc

t chc x hi dn s (bao gm cc t chc da vo cng ng) vi vai tr khc nhau v b

sung cho nhau qun l ri ro vi cc chc nng v nng lc lin quan (Chng 5, 6).

Phi hp thc hin QLRRTT gia cc B, ngnh v a phng cn nhiu hn ch, thiu

quy hoch ng b, hoc thiu iu chnh kp thi trong chnh sch huy ng ngun lc

phng, chng v gim nh thin tai. Cn tng cng cc hot ng phi hp gia cc B,

ngnh v a phng t khu xy dng cc chnh sch, n trin khai thc hin (Mc 6.2.5).

D. Cc oan kh hu trong tng lai, tc ng v nhng

thit hi do thin tai

Nhng thay i v mc phi by trc him ha, tnh d b tn thng v cc cc oan kh

hu do dao ng kh hu t nhin, BKH do con ngi gy nn v s pht trin kinh t - x hi

c th lm thay i nhng tc ng ca cc oan kh hu ln cc h thng con ngi v t

nhin v gy ra nhng thin tai tim tng.

Cc oan kh hu v cc tc ng

Mc tin cy ca cc d tnh v s thay i v tn sut v cng cc oan kh hu

ph thuc vo nhiu yu t, bao gm loi cc oan, vng v ma, s lng v cht

lng ca d liu quan st c, mc hiu bit v cc tin trnh, v tin cy ca

cc bin trong m hnh. Thay i d tnh v cc oan kh hu theo cc kch bn pht thi

14

khc nhau thng khng r rt trong hai n ba thp k, v nhng gi tr l tng i nh so

vi nhng dao ng kh hu t nhin trong khung thi gian ny. Nhng thay i d tnh vo

cui th k 21 c cng b nhng cn c s khng chc chn t m hnh hoc s khng

chc chn ca kch bn pht thi, ty thuc vo cc cc oan. Nhng nh gi da trn cc d

tnh n cui th k 21 trn c s kh hu vo cui th k 20 thng c p dng. Cc nh

gi ny c da trn nhiu d liu v c bit l m hnh ha bng cc m hnh AGCM/MRI

ca c quan kh tng Nht Bn, m hnh PRECIS ca Trung tm Hadley - Vng quc Anh

v m hnh CCAM ca T chc Nghin cu Khoa hc v Cng nghip Lin bang c (CSIRO)

(Mc 3.2).

S ngy v s t nng nng d tnh s tng trn hu ht cc khu vc, nht l khu vc

min Trung. Theo kch bn cao RCP 8.5, s ngy nng nng d tnh n gia th k 21 tng

ph bin t 20-30 ngy so vi thi k 1980-1999 khu vc Nam B; v n cui th k 21,

tng khong t 60-70 ngy trn khu vc ng Bc, ng bng Bc B, Trung Trung B, Nam

Trung B v Nam B, cc khu vc khc c mc tng thp hn. n cui th k 21, s t nng

nng (3 ngy lin tip xut hin nng nng) c d tnh gia tng hu ht khu vc ca Vit

Nam, c bit khu vc Nam B v Nam Ty Nguyn vi mc tng c th ln ti 6 n 10 t;

cc khu vc cn li c mc tng t 2 n 6 t (Mc 3.5.1) (Hnh SPM-5).

Hnh SPM-5. D tnh bin i s ngy nng nng thi k gia (tri) v cui (phi) th k

21 so vi trung bnh thi k 1980-1999 theo kch bn trung bnh

Tn sut ma ln d tnh s tng trong th k 21 nhiu vng ca Vit Nam. Ma ln s

tng ri ro st l t cc khu vc min ni. Theo s liu quan trc, hin tng ma ln

din rng c xu th tng mnh. S ngy ma ln c xu th gim cc vng kh hu pha

Bc v tng nh vng Nam B; tng kh mnh Trung Nam B v Ty Nguyn. D tnh

cc oan ma trong tng lai: trong th k 21, s ngy vi lng ma ln hn 50mm d

15

tnh tng min Bc v min Nam, c bit l vng ni Ty Bc. Khu vc min Trung c xu th

gim nh (Mc 3.5.3) (Hnh SPM-6). Kt qu d tnh ca cc m hnh khu vc cho thy, lng

ma 1 ngy ln nht (Rx1day) c xu th tng hu ht khu vc Ty Bc, ng Bc B, pha

nam Ty Nguyn v BSCL, v gim cc vng ng bng Bc B, Bc Trung B v Nam

Trung B. Tuy nhin, nu tnh trung bnh trn c vng th mc bin i l tng i nh

(Mc 3.3.2). Lng ma 5 ngy ln nht (Rx5day) tng Nam Ty Nguyn (Hnh SPM-7). Lu

rng, d tnh ma ln l rt kh nn kt qu tnh ton hin nay vn cn nhiu im cha

chc chn.

Hnh SPM-6. D tnh bin i ca s ngy c ma trn 50 mm vo gia (a) v cui (b)

th k 21

a)

b)

S thay i lng ma v nhit d kin dn n nhng thay i v l lt, mc d

mc tin cy thp nhng cng c th ni rng s thay i ca l l kt qu ca nhng

thay i v cc oan kh hu, cn thay i v kinh t - x hi v d nh xy p s nh

hng ti nh x l. Tuy nhin, l lt nc ta ngy cng tr nn thng xuyn hn, c lit

hn, bt thng hn, gy tc ng ngy cng rng ln hn, c khi bao trm mt khu vc ln,

thm ch mt min ca t nc (Mc 3.5.4).

Hn hn c kh nng gia tng trong th k 21 trong mt s ma v hu ht cc vng

kh hu ca Vit Nam, do lng ma gim v/hoc tng qu trnh bc hi. Cc t hn

nng v ang xut hin nhiu hn nhiu ni, c bit l hn cc khc nghit; trong , tn

sut hn cao ch yu xy ra tp trung vo cc thng v ng xun (t thng 1 n thng 4) v

v h thu (t thng 5 n thng 8). D tnh trong th k 21, theo m hnh kch bn pht thi kh

nh knh cao RCP 8.5, hn hn c th xut hin nhiu hn v ko di hn hu ht cc vng

kh hu ca Vit Nam (Mc 3.5.2).

16

Hnh SPM-7. D tnh bin i lng ma 1 ngy ln nht (a), 5 ngy ln nht (b) vo

cui th k 21 theo kch bn cao RCP 8.5 (%)

D tnh thay i s lng bo hot ng Bin ng v nh hng n Vit Nam vo gia v

cui th k 21 cn nhiu im cha chc chn. Tuy nhin, gn nh chc chn l s lng

bo mnh c xu th tng (Mc 3.4.2).

El Nino/ La Nina tc ng mnh m n thi tit, kh hu Vit Nam. Theo din bin lch

EN O trong 100 nm qua, tn sut v cng ca El Nino v La Nina th hin xu th

tng. D tnh trong th k 21, tn sut hot ng ca El Nino vi d thng nhit mt nc

bin dng trn khu vc trung tm xch o Thi Bnh Dng c nhn nh c xu th tng

(Mc 3.4.3).

Rt c kh nng s dng ln ca mc nc bin trung bnh s gp phn vo xu hng

dng ln ca mc nc cc oan ven bin trong tng lai. Nhng vng hin ang tri qua

nhng tc ng bt li nh xi l b bin v ngp lt s tip tc b nh vy trong tng lai do

mc nc bin tng ln. Rt nhiu kh nng l s dng ln ca mc nc bin trung bnh s

lm tng mc nc ven bin cc oan, cng vi kh nng gia tng v tc gi ti a ca cc

cn bo, l mt mi e da c th cho vng ven bin (Mc 3.5.6).

Tc ng ca con ngi v nhng thit hi do thin tai

Hin tng cc oan s c tc ng mnh m hn n cc lnh vc c lin quan cht

ch vi kh hu, nh nc, nng nghip, an ninh lng thc, lm nghip, y t v du lch.

Tuy nhin, BKH trong nhiu trng hp ch l mt trong nhng ng lc gy ra nhng thay

i trong tng lai, v cha hn l ng lc quan trng nht quy m a phng. Cc oan

kh hu cng c d kin s gy ra cc tc ng ln n c s h tng, mc d phn tch chi

(a) (b)

17

tit v cc thit hi tim tng v cc d tnh vn cn hn ch Vit Nam (Mc 4.3.4, 5.2.3,

5.3.2).

Nhng ng lc chnh ca s gia tng thit hi kinh t trong tng lai do cc oan kh

hu thc cht l kinh t - x hi. Cc oan kh hu ch l mt trong nhng yu t nh hng

n ri ro, nhng rt t nghin cu c th nh lng cc tc ng ca nhng thay i v dn

s, mc phi by trc him ha ca con ngi v ti sn v tnh d b tn thng nh yu

t quyt nh cc thit hi. Tuy nhin, xu hng thng vong v cc tn tht kinh t do thin tai

c c tnh trong nhng nm qua cho thy mc nghim trng ca tnh trng thin tai

Vit Nam (Mc 2.2.2; Chng 4, 5).

Tng mc phi by trc him ha s dn ti nhng thit hi kinh t ln hn do cc

trn bo. Nhng thit hi cng s ph thuc vo nhng thay i trong tng lai ca tn sut v

cng ca bo (Chng 3).

Nhng thit hi do l lt trong tng lai nhiu ni s tng nu khng c thm cc bin

php bo v khc (Chng 3, 4, 5).

Thin tai lin quan n kh hu cc oan nh hng n di dn v ti nh c, nh

hng n cng ng ngi nhp c v cng ng a phng ti im di c n. Nu

thin tai xy ra thng xuyn hn v/hoc vi cng ln hn, mt s a phng s l ni

kh khn hn sinh sng hoc duy tr sinh k. Trong trng hp nh vy, BKH c th

tr thnh yu t quyt nh cho vic di c v di di v to nn nhng p lc mi cho nhng

khu vc ti nh c (Chng 2, 4, 5).

E. Qun l thay i ri ro cc oan kh hu v thin tai

Thch ng vi BKH v QLRRTT l cch tip cn b tr cho vic qun l cc ri ro cc oan

kh hu v thin tai (Hnh SPM-2). Vic xem xt mt cch rng hn v nhng thch thc ca

pht trin bn vng s gip ch cho vic p dng hiu qu v kt hp cc cch tip cn.

Cc bin php t hi tic mang li li ch trong iu kin kh hu hin ti v cc kch bn

BKH khc nhau trong tng lai s rt quan trng i vi vic gii quyt cc xu hng

d tnh v mc phi by trc him ha, tnh d b tn thng, v cc oan kh hu.

Nhiu chin lc t hi tic to ra nhng ng li ch, gip gii quyt cc mc tiu pht trin

khc, chng hn nh ci thin sinh k, sc khe con ngi v bo tn a dng sinh hc, v

gip gim thiu cc bin php thch ng sai. Cc bin php t hi tic tim nng bao gm cc

bin php tng cng hn na cc h thng cnh bo sm; truyn thng ri ro; qun l t ai

bn vng, trong c quy hoch s dng t v qun l v phc hi h sinh thi. Cc bin

php t hi tic khc bao gm ci thin gim st y t, cp nc, v sinh mi trng, v cc h

thng ti tiu v thot nc; c s h tng chng chu vi kh hu; pht trin v thc thi cc

tiu chun xy dng; gio dc v nhn thc tt hn (Chng 4, 5, 6, 8, 9).

Qun l ri ro hiu qu thng lin quan n mt danh mc cc hnh ng gim

thiu, chia s ri ro v ng ph vi cc hin tng cc oan v thin tai, ngc li vi

vic tp trung vo mt hnh ng hoc mt dng hnh ng c th. Phng php tip

cn tch hp c hiu qu hn khi hiu v p dng vo nhng hon cnh c th ca a

phng. Chin lc thnh cng l mt s kt hp ca cc gii php cng v c s h tng v

cc gii php mm nh xy dng nng lc c nhn v th ch v ng ph da trn h sinh

thi (Chng 4, 5, 8).

18

Cch tip cn qun l ri ro a him ha cung cp cc c hi gim him ha phc tp

v phc hp. Bng cch xem xt nhiu dng cc him ha s lm gim kh nng l nhng n

lc gim thiu ri ro mt dng him ha c th lm tng mc phi by v tnh d b tn

thng trc cc him ha khc, trong hin ti v tng lai (Chng 8).

Cc c ch, chnh sch h tr cp quc t v khu vc mang ti nhng c hi thc

hin QLRRTT v thch ng vi BKH Vit Nam, nhng cng c cc ro cn v lut, ti

chnh, chuyn giao cng ngh, chia s ri ro thin tai, v ph bin kin thc. Vic xem xt

cc c hi, cc hn ch v thch thc ca lut quc t, ti chnh quc t v cc vn khc s

gip a ra mt ci nhn tng qut v nhng ro cn, c hi v cc la chn cho cc hot

ng QLRRTT v thch ng vi BKH ca quc t v Vit Nam (Mc 7.4.2.4).

Vic hp tc v phi hp ca cc c quan QLRRTT v thch ng vi BKH l rt quan

trng xy dng cc chnh sch, chin lc ph hp nhm tch hp vo chin lc,

quy hoch tng th v k hoch pht trin. Vit Nam, QLRRTT do Ban ch o Phng

chng Lt bo Trung ng iu hnh v qun l, vi c quan thng trc l B NN&PTNT.

Trong khi , c quan chuyn trch v u mi cho cc vn v ng ph vi BKH l B

TN&MT. QLRRTT v thch ng BKH cn c tch hp vo cc chnh sch v quy hoch ca

Vit Nam v cn c nghin cu nhm hi ha hn li ch quc t, quc gia, ngnh v a

phng (Mc 7.5).

C cc c hi to ra sc mnh tng hp trong ti chnh quc t cho QLRRTT v thch

ng vi BKH, nhng vn cha c thc hin y . Ti tr quc t v GNRRTT vn

cn tng i thp so vi quy m ch tiu cho ng ph nhn o quc t, v QLRRTT cha

c hng li t phn ln kinh ph thch ng c phn b theo Chng trnh H tr ng

ph vi BKH (SP-RCC) Vit Nam (Mc 7.4.2.4). Chuyn giao cng ngh v hp tc thc

y GNRRTT v thch ng vi BKH l rt quan trng. Phi hp chuyn giao cng ngh v

hp tc gia hai lnh vc QLRRTT v thch ng vi BKH cn thiu, dn n vic thc hin ri

rc (Mc 7.4.3).

Nhng n lc mnh m hn cp quc t khng phi u dn n kt qu quan

trng v nhanh chng cc cp a phng. C c hi cho ci tin v tch hp trn quy m

t quc t n a phng (Mc 7.5.4). Tch hp kin thc a phng vi cc kin thc khoa

hc v k thut c th ci thin vic GNRRTT v thch ng vi BKH. Phn tch a phng

ng ph vi BKH, c bit l cc hin tng kh hu cc oan, c th lm r c nng lc

hin c cng nh nhng thiu st trong cng ng. Thch ng da vo cng ng ang c

cc t chc phi chnh ph v cc c quan ca Lin Hp Quc ti Vit Nam h tr, v Vit Nam

c chng trnh quc gia QLRRTT da vo cng ng (QLRRTT-DVC). Tuy nhin, nhng ci

thin trong ngun nhn lc v ti chnh v nhng thng tin v ri ro thin tai v kh hu theo

yu cu ca cc bn lin quan ti a phng c th tng cng thch ng da vo cng ng

(Chng 5, Mc 7.5.1).

Truyn thng ri ro mt cch thch hp v kp thi l rt quan trng cho thch ng v

QLRRTT hiu qu. Do tnh khng chc chn v phc tp nn cn tng cng truyn thng

ri ro. Truyn thng ri ro hiu qu l c xy dng da trn s trao i, chia s, v tch hp

kin thc v cc ri ro lin quan n kh hu vi tt c cc nhm lin quan. Nhn thc v nguy

c gia cc c nhn lin quan v cc nhm c quyt nh bi cc yu t tm l v vn ha,

cc gi tr v nim tin (Mc 2.6.3, 7.4.3.2; Chng 4, 5, 6, 8).

19

Mt qu trnh lp i lp li ca cc gim st, nghin cu, nh gi, hc tp, v i mi c

th gim ri ro thin tai v th c y qun l thch ng trong bi cnh kh hu cc oan.

Cc n lc thch ng c hng li t cc chin lc qun l ri ro lp i lp li v s phc

tp, khng chc chn, v khung thi gian di gn vi BKH. Gii quyt l hng kin thc thng

qua tng cng quan st v nghin cu c th lm gim s khng chc chn v gip phc

tho cc chin lc thch ng v qun l ri ro hiu qu (Mc 1.4.2, Chng 6, 7, 8).

ngha vi pht trin bn vng

X hi, kinh t v mi trng bn vng c th c tng cng bng cch tip cn

QLRRTT v thch ng. Ni d b tn thng cao v kh nng thch ng thp, s thay i

trong kh hu cc oan c th lm cho h thng kh thch ng mt cch bn vng m khng

cn nhng s iu chnh. Tnh d b tn thng thng tp trung cc cng ng hay nhm

ngi ngho, tuy cc cng ng nng thn khc, cc thnh ph cng c th d b tn thng

vi cc oan kh hu. Mt iu kin tin quyt cho s bn vng trong bi cnh BKH l gii

quyt cc nguyn nhn c bn ca tnh d b tn thng, trong c s bt bnh ng v c

cu to ra v duy tr ngho i v hn ch tip cn cc ngun ti nguyn. iu ny lin quan

n vic lng ghp QLRRTT v thch ng vi BKH trong tt c cc lnh vc chnh sch x hi,

kinh t v mi trng (Chng 5, 8).

cp v m, vn QLRRTT v thch ng vi BKH phi c lng ghp vo pht trin

bn vng. cp vi m, cc d n pht trin, xa i gim ngho, qun l ti nguyn thin

nhin v bo tn a dng sinh hc cn p dng cc cch tip cn da vo cng ng trong

GNRRTT v thch ng vi BKH (Chng 4, 5, 8).

Cc hnh ng thch ng vi BKH v GNRRTT hiu qu nht l cung cp li ch pht

trin trong giai on ngn hn, cng nh gim tnh d b tn thng di hn. C s nh

i gia cc quyt nh hin ti v mc tiu di hn lin quan n cc gi tr a dng, li ch v

u tin cho tng lai. Quan im ngn hn v di hn v QLRRTT v thch ng vi BKH do

kh c th dung ha. Vic dung ha ny lin quan n vic khc phc s khng kt ni gia

cc hot ng qun l ri ro cp a phng v khun kh th ch v php l, chnh sch v

lp k hoch cp quc gia (Chng 8).

Gii quyt thnh cng ri ro thin tai, BKH, v nhng cng thng khc thng lin

quan n vic tham gia rng ri trong chin lc pht trin, kh nng kt hp nhiu kha

cnh v cc cch tng phn vi t chc cc mi quan h x hi (Chng 4, 5, 8; Bng

SPM-1).

S tng tc gia thch ng vi BKH v QLRRTT c th c nh hng ln ti kh

nng chng chu v s bn vng (Mc 7.5.4, Chng 8). C nhiu phng php v l trnh

dn n mt tng lai bn vng v c sc chng chu. Tuy nhin, gii hn kh nng chng

chu ang phi i mt khi vt qu ngng hoc im ti hn kt hp vi h thng x hi

v/hoc t nhin b qu ti, t ra nhng thch thc nghim trng i vi s thch ng

(Chng 8).

Da vo thc tin QLRRTT v thch ng vi BKH Vit Nam, ba bi hc v tm quan

trng ca: (1) S cam kt mnh m ca Chnh ph i vi GNRRTT v thch ng vi BKH;

(2) Nng cao nhn thc v huy ng s tham gia ca cng ng trong GNRRTT v thch ng

vi BKH; v (3) Pht huy ni lc vi hp tc quc t (Chng 8; Bng SPM-1).

20

Tm tt cc hot ng u tin

C nhiu cch tip cn thch ng v QLRRTT gim ri ro thin tai (Hnh SPM-2). QLRRTT v

u tin thch ng vi BKH Vit Nam phn ln l cc hot ng t hi tic gim thiu mc

phi by v tnh d b tn thng vi cc hin tng cc oan (Bng SPM-1; Chng 4, 5, 6,

8, 9)

1. Lp bn ri ro kh hu khc nhau

2. Lp bn mc phi by trc him ha v tnh d b tn thng v cc bin php

thch ng

3. Nng cao nng lc d bo v cc h thng cnh bo sm

4. Cc chng trnh xa i gim ngho

5. Tng cng mng li bo tr x hi v chm sc x hi i vi cc nhm d b tn

thng

6. Tch hp QLRRTT v thch ng BKH trong quy hoch th v s dng t

7. Xy dng k hoch qun l tng hp ti nguyn nc trong lu vc sng v cc khu

vc trng im

8. Tng cng nhn thc cng ng, nng cao nng lc, k hoch a phng (qun l

ri ro thin tai da vo cng ng)

9. Tng cng cc chng trnh ti nh c, gim mc phi by trc him ha v

tnh d b tn thng

10. Tng cng cc tiu chun xy dng c s h tng (chng chu vi kh hu)

11. Tng cng quy chun xy dng, thit k nh , nh cao tng

12. Tng cng gim thiu ri ro cp a phng, quc gia v quc t

13. Tng cng lm nghip, bao gm bo tn, phc hi v ti trng rng ngp mn

14. H tr nng nghip bo tn, v d lun canh cy trng mi, cc ging cy trng chu hn

hn v l lt

15. Ci thin cc bin php tit kim nc, qun l nhu cu s dng nc, v h thng thu

gom v lu tr nc ma v nc ngm

16. Nng cp h thng thy li v cp thot nc

17. Xy dng chnh sch v c ch qun l lin h cha a mc tiu, c bit l cc cng

trnh thy in

Ti liu tham kho

IPCC, 2012a: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate

Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [Field, C.B., V.Barros, T.F.Stocker,

D.Qin, D.J.Dokken, K.L. Ebi, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New

York, NY, USA, Cambridge.

IPCC, 2012b: Summary for Policymakers., in: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and

Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker,

D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen,

M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A S. pp. 119.

Wisner, B., Blaikie, P., Cannon, T., Davis, I., 2004: At Risk: Natural Hazards, Peoples

Vulnerability and Disasters. Second Edition.

21

Bng SPM-1. Minh ha cc v d v nhng phng n qun l ri ro v thch ng trong iu kin thay i cc mc phi by trc

him ha, tnh d b tn thng v cc hin tng kh hu cc oan

mi v d, cc thng tin c trng theo quy m lin quan trc tip n qu trnh ra quyt nh. Nhng v d ny c la chn trn c s c cc

bng chng trong bo co SREX Vit Nam v mc phi by trc him ha, tnh d b tn thng, thng tin kh hu v cc bin php qun l ri

ro v thich ng. Mc ch ca cc v d ny l phn nh cc ch lin quan ti qun l ri ro, ch khng ch cung cp cc thng tin chi tit ca tng

vng Vit Nam.

Loi hin

tng

V d, vi mc phi by v tnh d b tn thng quy m qun l

ri ro

Thng tin v cc oan kh hu theo quy m khng gian Phng n qun l ri ro

v thch ng Thay i quan st c (t 1961) v d tnh (n 2100)

Quy m qun l ri ro

Ngp lt do ma cc oan

Nguyn nhn chnh gy ngp ng H Ni l ma ln ko di ngay trn khu vc, trong khi h thng thot nc khng p ng c yu cu thot nc nhanh. Cc nghin cu cho thy a s cc t ma ln gy ngp ng l cc t ma ln ko di trong thi k xut hin cc hin tng cc oan ca ma. Trn ngp lt nm 2008 l trn lt lch s ti H Ni vi lng ma k lc trong hn 100 nm gn y. Tng lng ma trong 3 ngy khu vc H Ni ph bin t 350-550mm, mt s im c ma ln hn nh Gia Lm 633mm, H ng 812mm, Thanh Oai 914mm. (Mc 9.2.4.2, Bng 9-4)

Quan st thy: Lng ma mt ngy ln nht (Rx1day) v lng ma 5 ngy ln nht (Rx5day) tng Nam B v tng ng k Bc Trung B, Nam Trung B, Ty Nguyn. Lng ma mt ngy ln nht tng/gim khng ng u pha Bc (Ty Bc, ng Bc v ng bng Bc B). D tnh cc oan ma trong tng lai: D tnh trong th k 21, hin tng ma ln din rng v s ngy c ma ln c xu th tng mnh. Lng ma 1 ngy ln nht (Rx1day) c xu th tng hu ht khu vc Ty Bc, ng Bc B. Lng ma 5 ngy ln nht (Rx5day) tng Nam Ty Nguyn. D tnh cc oan ma l rt kh do ph thuc vo nhiu yu t v qu trnh; v vy cc kt qu d tnh hin nay vn cn nhiu im cha chc chn. (Mc 3.3.2; Bng 3.9 3.15).

Mt mng li quan trc trn t lin cn mng v khng gian v thi gian quan trc. Mng li quan st trn bin cn hn ch hn. Tuy nhin, cc quan st bng v tinh c ci thin trong vi thp k gn y.

Cc phng n t hi tic gim bt mc phi by trc him ha ma cc oan v tnh d b tn thng:

Lp bn tnh d b tn thng v cc bin php thch ng;

Lng ghp GNRRTT v thch ng vi BKH vo quy hoch th;

Duy tu cc h thng tiu thot nc;

Cc h thng cnh bo sm cn c ci thin;

Bo him vi m, chia s ri ro cp a phng.

Cc phng n thch ng, v d: - Tip tc cc chng trnh ti nh c ch trng pht trin sinh k cho ngi dn gim bt mc phi by trc him ha v gim tnh d b tn thng ca ngi dn.

(Mc 5.6.3, 9.2.4.4)

22

Loi hin

tng

V d, vi mc phi by v tnh d b tn thng quy m qun l

ri ro

Thng tin v cc oan kh hu theo quy m khng gian Phng n qun l ri ro

v thch ng Thay i quan st c (t 1961) v d tnh (n 2100)

Quy m qun l ri ro

Ngp lt do nc bin dng cao hoc nc dng do bo

Vng ven bin v ng bng d b tn thng i vi mc nc bin dng cao v c bit l nc dng do bo hoc kt hp gia bo v triu cng. V d, nc dng do bo trong trn bo nm 1881 ti Hi Phng lm cht khong 300.000 ngi. Cc s liu ghi nhn c nc dng ln nht trong cn bo Dan nm 1989 l 3,6m. Nc dng do bo xut hin vo ng thi k triu cng, kt hp vi sng to trong bo l nguyn nhn chnh gy v nh xy ra ti Nam nh v Thanh Ha trong cn bo Damrey 2005. Cui thng 10, 11 v u thng 12/2013, triu cng ti thnh ph H Ch Minh vt mc bo ng 3, gy ng ngp nghim trng cc vng ven sng, knh rch v vng trng. Ngy 20/10/2013, nh triu l 1,68m - t mc lch s trong 61 nm qua. Ngy 5-6/12/2013, mc triu cng t nh t 1,63-1,65m. Mt on b bao ti qun Bnh Thnh b v v lm trn vo khu vc ngoi thnh, gy ngp ng trn din rng. Mt s cng trnh chng ngp cng b v hiu ha. Do nhiu bao b v vo ban m, nc dng nhanh trn vo cc h gia nh, khin cc hot ng kinh t - x hi b nh tr. Cc hin tng ny gy ra xi l, ngp lt, thay i ng b bin, xm nhp mn v cc tc ng i vi cng ng ven bin, du lch, giao thng vn ti v cc doanh nghip, cc h sinh thi, nng nghip v

Quan st c: Mc nc bin trung bnh khu vc Bin ng v ven bin Vit Nam c xu hng tng r rt vi gi tr tng trung bnh dc b bin Vit Nam khong 2,8 mm/nm. S liu v tinh cho thy, mc nc trung bnh trn mt phn ca bin ng t nm 1993 n 2010 tng khong 4,7 mm/nm. Mc nc bin cao nht hng nm xy ra khi thy triu kt hp vi bo gy ra nc dng do bo, c xu th tng hu ht cc trm quan trc ven bin Vit Nam. D tnh cc oan: D tnh n cui th k 21, mc nc bin dng trung bnh ton Vit Nam trong khong t 78 cm n 95 cm vi kch bn pht thi cao A1FI. Khu vc c mc dng cao nht l t C Mau n Kin Giang (85 cm n 105 cm) v khu vc c mc dng thp nht l Mng Ci (66 cm n 85 cm).

Thay i v tn sut v cng bo c th gp phn lm thay i v mc nc cc oan ven bin, nhng cc nghin cu cho cc vng cn t nn cha th nh gi y c cc nh hng ca s thay i ca bo n s thay i ca nc dng do bo. (Mc 9.2.1.3, 9.2.1.4)

Cc phng n t hi tic gim bt mc phi by trc him ha nc bin dng cao hoc nc dng do bo v tnh d b tn thng:

Lp bn ri ro nc dng do bo

Lp bn mc phi by trc him ha, tnh d b tn thng v cc bin php thch ng;

Bo tn, phc hi v ti trng rng ngp mn;

Nng cao nhn thc ca cng ng v him ha;

Pht huy hiu qu ca h thng cnh bo sm, bao gm d bo v h thng truyn tin, cnh bo, bo ng;

Gim mc tn thng cho nhng vng nguy c cao (ti nh c khi vng ven bin, xy dng nh chng chu vi bo v lt).

(Mc 9.2.1.4)

23

Loi hin

tng

V d, vi mc phi by v tnh d b tn thng quy m qun l

ri ro

Thng tin v cc oan kh hu theo quy m khng gian Phng n qun l ri ro

v thch ng Thay i quan st c (t 1961) v d tnh (n 2100)

Quy m qun l ri ro

nui trng thy sn. Kt qu l dn n thit hi kinh t v di dn. (Mc 9.2.4.2)

Ngp lt do ma ln trn lu vc sng

Ti khu vc BSCL, trung bnh khong 4 - 6 nm li xy ra mt trn l lt ln. Cc nguyn nhn chnh gy l lt ti khu vc ny l do ma ln thng ngun hoc ton lu vc sng, x l t cc p thy in thng ngun, nn ph rng, cc h thng knh thy nng v ngn mn, pht trin th khng hp l, Trong gn 45 nm qua, c cc nm 1961, 1978, 1984, 1991, 1994, 1996, 2000, 2001 v 2011 l nhng nm l lt ln. (Mc 9.2.2)

Quan st thy: Trung bnh hng nm trn c nc c khong 25 t ma ln din rng, tp trung t thng 4 n thng 12, sm hn cc khu vc pha Bc v mun dn cc khu vc pha Nam. Din bin ma ln din rng c xu th tng mnh trong 20 nm gn y, cao nht l nm 2008 vi 56 t. Ma ln din rng gy l thng xuyn, bt thng v tc ng trn din rng, bao trm c mt khu vc, vng min. D tnh cc oan: D tnh s ngy ma ln hn 50mm tng trong th k 21 trn khu vc min Bc v min Nam, nhng khu vc min Trung c xu th gim nh. (Mc 3.5.3, Hnh SPM-7).

BSCL cng lun phi i mt vi l lt v tri qua nhiu trn l lt ln trong nhng nm gn y. Do l lt BSCL c c im ring, nn mc d din dn c v phm vi b tc ng rt ln, thi gian b tc ng ko di nhiu thng nhng mc tc ng khng c lit nh l lt min Trung v ng bng Bc B.

Nhn thc c vn trn sng M Cng, Vit Nam c u t hnh thnh h thng c bn cc bin php thch nghi, m bo chung sng vi l lt mt cch ch ng, tch cc, v gim thit hi. Phng chm ch yu trong phng trnh thin tai BSCL l thch nghi, phng trnh v hn ch mt phn tc ng ca l lt bng cc bin php cng trnh v phi cng trnh. Quy hoch tng th vng l cn thit. Vic xy dng bao nhiu thnh ph/th x cn cn nhc n thay i mc nc l ton vng v c th lm tng mc nc l ca cc khu vc khng c bo v bi cc h thng . (Mc 9.2.2.3)

L qut vng ni

Ma ln, cng mnh gy l qut ti nhiu tnh min ni Vit Nam, c bit l cc tnh min ni pha bc. L qut thng xy ra bt ng, to dng chy xit, e da tnh mng con ngi, ph hy c s h tng v nh hng khng nh n s pht trin kinh t - x hi v i sng ngi dn.

Quan st c: Vng ni c dc a hnh ln th l qut l mt dng thin tai kh ph bin v nguy him hn do lng ma cc oan v thay i s dng t.

L qut thng xy ra trn din hp v t thng tin c quan trc v o ac. V vy, kh nng a ra cc d bo v l qut

Cc phng n t hi tic gim mc phi by v tnh d b tn thng trc nhng xu hng xy ra l qut vng ni:

Lp bn ri ro l qut

Lp bn tnh d b tn thng v cc bin php thch ng

24

Loi hin

tng

V d, vi mc phi by v tnh d b tn thng quy m qun l

ri ro

Thng tin v cc oan kh hu theo quy m khng gian Phng n qun l ri ro

v thch ng Thay i quan st c (t 1961) v d tnh (n 2100)

Quy m qun l ri ro

Din bin l qut trong vi chc nm tr li y Vit Nam c xu hng ngy cng nghim trng. Tnh trung bnh trong thi k 1990-2010, mi nm c khong 12 trn l qut xy ra. Mt v d in hnh l l qut Lo Cai m 8/8/2008 lm 88 ngi thit mng. Trn l qut thng 8/2012 cng Lo Cai lm 11 ngi cht v 9 ngi b thng. (Mc 9.2.3, Bng 9.3)

D kin: Tng ma cc oan do vy s tng ri ro xy ra l qut cao trong tng lai. Tuy nhin, c nhiu bin php c th p dng gim thiu tnh d b tn thng v mc phi by trc him ha ny. (Mc 3.3.2)

quy m a phng l hn ch. Ma cc oan tng nhng a phng thng b l qut Vit Nam, bao gm khu vc min ni, c bit l Ty Bc v Nam Ty Nguyn. (Hnh SPM-6, SPM-7)

Tng cng cc quy nh v thit k v xy dng c s h tng (ng giao thng, cu cng, h thng thy li);

Tng cng quy nh v thit k v xy dng nh v cc cng trnh cng cng (trng hc, bnh vin,);

Thc hin quy hoch v ti nh c khi nhng vng c nguy c cao;

Thc hin cc k hoch gim ngho;

Kt hp pht trin nng nghip v trng rng hn ch l qut.

Thit hi do nhng cn bo

S phi by trc him ha v tnh d b tn thng vi nhng cn bo tng ln do s tng dn s v tng cc gi tr vt cht b phi by trc him ha, c bit l nhng thnh ph ven bin, nhng ni m quy hoch khng thng xuyn tnh n vic thch ng vi BKH. Nhiu khu ti nh c c th li cn thit b ti nh c do ni mi khng m bo sinh k bn vng v mi trng sng khng n nh di tc ng ca thin tai. V d TP. Quy Nhn, 3.000 h dn c ti nh c trnh xi l b bin v bo, nhng khu vc ti nh c li l vng trng, d b ngp lt. (Mc 4.3.4.1)

Quan st thy: Trong hn 50 nm gn y (1961-2010), bin i ca tn sut XTN bao gm c bo v ATN b vo Vit Nam khng r rng, tuy nhin s lng bo cp trung bnh gim, nhng bo rt mnh li c xu hng tng. Ma bo kt thc mun hn v ng i ca bo c xu th dch chuyn v pha Nam. D tnh cc oan: Kt qu m hnh cho gia v cui th k 21, s lng bo hot ng Bin ng v nh hng n Vit Nam khng ch ra mt xu th r rng. Cc sn phm d tnh kh hu cng cho thy tn sut bo gim nhng tng v cng .

Hn 3.000 km b bin ca Vit Nam b phi by trc nhng ri ro bo, c bit l khu vc min Trung. Tt c cc khu vc nh c ven bin, c bit l cc thnh ph ln, cn phi cn nhc k n nhng ri ro ny trong cc quy hoch pht trin kinh t - x hi.

Cc phng n t hi tic gim thiu mc phi by trc nhng xu hng him ha v tnh d b tn thng trc nhng cn bo:

Lp bn nguy c nc dng do bo;

Lp bn tnh d b tn thng v cc bin php thch ng;

a vo p dng v cng ch thc thi cc quy nh trong lnh vc xy dng;

Nng cao nng lc d bo v thc hin cc h thng cnh bo sm;

Chia s ri ro a phng v quy m tnh, quc gia;

Cn nhc cc ri ro trong tng lai v tng cng cc quy nh v quy hoch, thit k v xy dng c s h tng, nh v cc cng trnh cng cng, c bit l khi ti nh c v

25

Loi hin

tng

V d, vi mc phi by v tnh d b tn thng quy m qun l

ri ro

Thng tin v cc oan kh hu theo quy m khng gian Phng n qun l ri ro

v thch ng Thay i quan st c (t 1961) v d tnh (n 2100)

Quy m qun l ri ro

Gn nh chc chn s lng bo mnh (Vmax > 70 ms

-1) c xu th

tng. (Mc 3.4.2.; Hnh 3-6 3-10, Bng 3-19)

xy dng cc khu th mi. Trong iu kin c yu t bin i v bt nh cao, cc phng n c th cn coi trng qun l thch ng linh hot.

Tc ng ca cc t nng nng

Cc yu t nh hng n mc phi by trc him ha nng nng v tnh d b tn thng bao gm tui tc, tnh trng sc khe, mc hot ng ngoi tri v cc yu t KT-XH nh ngho i, c lp x hi, thch ng v cc c s h tng th. V d in hnh l 2 t nng nng gay gt v ko di (>35

oC), thng 6-7/2010 Bc

B, Bc Trung b v Trung Trung b, c ni s ngy nng nng ko di hn 1 thng. Ti cc tnh thuc ng bng Bc B v Bc Trung B, nhit ln ti 40-41C, mt s ni ln ti trn 42C. Thm vo , cc t nng nng cng gy thit hi v kinh t v sn xut nng nghip. Bc B, nng nng thng xy ra vo ma h, gy thiu nc ti v sinh hot, nh hng nghim trng ti sc khe v tiu tn nhiu nng lng cho vic bm ti v lm mt. Nam B v Ty Nguyn thng xy ra nng nng, kh hn trong giai on cui ma kh, lm nh hng ti sn xut. duyn hi Trung B, nng nng kh hn ko di thng xut hin vo gia ma h, lm thiu ht nc gieo cy v ma.

Quan st thy: Cc s liu gn y cho thy s ngy v s t nng nng hng nm c xu th tng ln trn hu khp ton quc, nht l khu vc min Trung. Mt s ni quan trc c gi tr nhit cao k lc. Nng nng din rng thng pht trin theo quy lut t bc vo nam v t ty sang ng. Cc tnh ven bin Trung B, nht l Bc Trung B, l ni c tn sut nng nng ln nht v gay gt nht Vit Nam. (Hnh SPM-4) D tnh cc oan: S ngy nng nng ( 35

oC) c xu th tng

trong th k 21, tng nhanh ng k cc khu vc ng Bng Bc B, Nam Trung B v Nam B. n gia th k 21 s ngy nng nng d tnh tng ph bin t 20-30 ngy so vi thi k 1980-1999 khu vc Nam B. n cui th k 21, tng khong t 60-70 ngy trn khu vc ng Bc, ng bng Bc B, Trung Trung B,

S t nng nng tng ln trong sut th k 21, vi tc cao cc khu vc nh Nam B v Nam Ty Nguyn.

Cc phng n t hi tic gim mc phi by v d b tn thng vi cc t nng nng:

Lp bn tnh d b tn thng v cc bin php thch ng;

H thng cnh bo sm, c bit i vi cc nhm c bit d b tn thng (ngi gi, tr em, nhng ngi b bnh mn tnh);

Nng cao nhn thc v nng nng nh mt vn sc khe cng ng

Thng tin n cng ng v nhng bin php phng trnh v i ph trong cc t nng nng;

S dng cc mng li chm sc x hi i vi cc nhm d b tn thng.

Thay i v kt cu h tng th v quy hoch s dng t, v d tng din tch cy xanh th, cc thay i v cc tip cn lm mt cho cc c s cng cng v iu chnh v kt cu h tng pht v truyn ti nng lng.

(Mc 9.2.6.3; 6.2.6.4,

26

Loi hin

tng

V d, vi mc phi by v tnh d b tn thng quy m qun l

ri ro

Thng tin v cc oan kh hu theo quy m khng gian Phng n qun l ri ro

v thch ng Thay i quan st c (t 1961) v d tnh (n 2100)

Quy m qun l ri ro

(Mc 9.2.6.1, 6.2.6.2; Bng 9-6) (Hnh SPM-4)

Nam Trung B v Nam B. S t nng nng (3 ngy lin tip xut hin nng nng) c d tnh gia tng hu ht khu vc, c bit khu vc Nam B v Nam Ty Nguyn vi mc tng c th ln ti 6 n 10 t; cc khu vc cn li c mc tng t 2 n 6 t. (Mc 3.5.1) (Hnh SPM-5)

Hn hn

Mt s nm hn in hnh gy thit hi ln i vi kinh t - x hi c th k n l hn hn nm 1997-1998, nm 2004-2005 v nm 2010. Giai on 2000-2007 c xem l c s bin ng mnh ca hn hn, thng l th hin xu th tng ln ca hin tng ny trn c nc. Cc phng thc nng nghip t tin tin lm cho khu vc tr nn d b tn thng trc kh nng ngy cng d bin i v lng ma, hn hn theo ma v cc s kin thi tit cc oan. Kh nng d b tn thng tr nn nghim trng hn do tng dn s, suy thoi h sinh thi v s dng qu mc ti nguyn thin nhin, cng nh cc tiu chun v y t, gio dc v qun l iu hnh km. (Mc 9.2.5)

Quan st thy: Cc t hn nng xut hin nhiu hn nhiu vng Vit Nam, c bit trong giai on 2000-2007. D tnh cc oan: Hn hn c th xut hin nhiu hn v ko di hn hu ht cc vng kh hu ca Vit Nam. Hn hn s tng ln trong sut th k 21, vi tc cao v vi mc khc nghit hn v ko di hn cc khu vc hn hn nhiu nh Nam Trung B, Ty Nguyn.

Hn vo ma ng ch yu xy ra khu vc Bc B, Nam B, Ty Nguyn; hn ma h thnh thnh Bc Trung B v Nam Trung B. Trang thit b o v s liu quan trc c ci thin, song thng tin n ngi dn b ri ro cn nhiu hn ch.

Cc phng n t hi tic gim mc phi by trc hn hn v tnh d b tn thng:

Lp bn tnh d b tn thng v cc bin php thch ng;

Cc h thng thu gom v d tr nc ma v nc ngm;

Qun l nhu cu s dng nc v ci thin cc bin php ti tiu hiu qu;

Nng nghip, bo tn, lun canh cy trng, s dng cc ging cy trng chu hn v a dng ha sinh k;

Duy tr v nng cp h thng ti tiu v cung cp nc gim thiu tht thot nc;

Khuyn khch s dng nc lun phin;

Tng cng cc h thng cnh bo sm tch hp d bo theo ma vi cc d bo hn, ci thin cc dch v khuyn nng;

27

Loi hin

tng

V d, vi mc phi by v tnh d b tn thng quy m qun l

ri ro

Thng tin v cc oan kh hu theo quy m khng gian Phng n qun l ri ro

v thch ng Thay i quan st c (t 1961) v d tnh (n 2100)

Quy m qun l ri ro

Xy dng quy hoch tng hp v ti nguyn nc lu vc sng, vng trng im. Lp k hoch khai thc, s dng hp l ti nguyn nc cho tng a phng, ngnh;

Cc bin php cng trnh v phi cng trnh bo v, pht trin rng v kh nng ti to ngun nc;

Xy dng chnh sch, c ch qun l, vn hnh, iu ho phn phi ngun nc a mc tiu v lin h cha ln, c bit l cc cng trnh thy in;

Chia s ri ro quy m a phng, khu vc v quy m quc gia.

(Mc 9.2.5.3; 9.2.5.4)

28

PHN 2

C C CHNG TRONG

BO CO SREX

VIT NAM

29

Chng 1

Bin i kh hu: Cc chiu hng mi v

ri ro thin tai, mc phi by trc him

ha, tnh d b tn thng v kh nng

chng chu

Tc gi chnh:

Koos Neefjes

ng tc gi:

Trn Thc, T Th Thanh Hng

Nhn xt phn bin:

T Vn Trng, L Nguyn Tng

Chng ny s c trch dn nh sau:

Neefjes Koos, Trn Thc, T Th Thanh Hng, 2015: Bin i kh hu: Cc chiu

hng mi v ri ro thin tai, mc phi by trc him ha, tnh d b tn

thng v kh nng chng chu. Trong: Bo co c bit ca Vit Nam v Qun l

ri ro thin tai v hin tng cc oan nhm thc y thch ng vi bin i kh

hu [Trn Thc, Koos Neefjes, T Th Thanh Hng, Nguyn Vn Thng, Mai

Trng Nhun, L Quang Tr, L nh Thnh, Hunh Th Lan Hng, V Thanh

Sn, Nguyn Th Hin Thun, L Nguyn Tng], NXB Ti nguyn Mi trng v

Bn Vit Nam, H Ni, Vit Nam, trang 29-61.

30

Mc Lc

Danh mc hnh .................................................................................................................... 31

Danh mc bng ................................................................................................................... 31

Danh mc hp ..................................................................................................................... 31

Tm tt ................................................................................................................................. 32

1.1. Gii thiu ................................................................................................................... 35

1.1.1. Mc tiu v cu trc bo co ................................................................................ 35

1.1.2. Nhng khi nim v nh ngha quan trng .......................................................... 36

1.1.3. Xc nh mi quan h gia thch ng vi bin i kh hu v qun l ri ro thin tai ................................................................................................................. 42

1.1.4. Xy dng cc quy trnh qun l ri ro thin tai v thch ng vi bin i kh hu .. 43

1.2. Cc hin tng cc oan, tc ng cc oan v thin tai ................................... 45

1.2.1. Phn bit hin tng cc oan, tc ng cc oan v thin tai ........................... 45

1.2.2. Cc hin tng cc oan c xc nh bng c trng vt l ............................ 45

1.2.3. Cc tc ng cc oan ......................................................................................... 47

1.3. Qun l thin tai, gim thiu ri ro thin tai v chia s ri ro ................................ 50

1.3.1. Bin i kh hu s lm qun l ri ro thin tai phc tp hn ................................ 51

1.3.2. Thch ng vi bin i kh hu gp phn qun l ri ro thin tai ........................... 52

1.3.3. Qun l ri ro thin tai v thch ng vi bin i kh hu chia s khi nim, mc tiu v qu trnh .................................................................................................... 53

1.4. i ph v thch ng ................................................................................................ 55

1.4.1. nh ngha, s phn bit, mi quan h gia i ph, nng lc, nng lc thch ng v phm vi i ph ............................................................................................... 55

1.4.2. Vic hc tp ......................................................................................................... 56

1.4.3. Hc tp vt qua ro cn thch ng ................................................................ 58

1.4.4. Khng hi tic, thch ng mnh m v vic hc tp ............................................ 59

Ti liu tham kho ............................................................................................................... 60

31

Danh mc hnh

Hnh 1-1. Cc khi nim chnh ca SREX v SREX Vit Nam ................................................. 38

Hnh 1-2. Nhng nh hng ca thay i trong phn b cc oan nhit ............................ 46

Hnh 1-3. Chu k hc tp: Cch thc, kt qu, v ng lc ca hc tp v p dng n, i v

ba vng trong qun l l lt....................................................................................... 57

Danh mc bng

Bng 1-1. Nhng c im khc nhau ca i ph v thch ng ............................................. 56

Danh mc hp

Hp 1-1. Nhng thay i trong nhn thc v i ph vi ri ro ................................................ 44

Hp 1-2. L lt lch s min Trung Vit Nam thng 11 nm 1999 ......................................... 48

32

Tm tt

Bo co c bit ca Vit Nam v Qun l ri ro thin tai v hin tng cc oan nhm thc

y thch ng vi bin i kh hu trnh by v phn tch tnh hnh Vit Nam theo nhng khi

nim v kt qu ca Bo co c bit ca IPCC v Qun l ri ro thin tai v hin tng cc

oan nhm thc y thch ng vi bin i kh hu (IPCC, 2012a). Chng 1 trnh by nhng

khi nim c bn.

Thin tai: Cc thay i nghim trng trong chc nng bnh thng ca mt cng ng hay mt

x hi do cc him ha t nhin tng tc vi cc iu kin d b tn thng ca x hi, dn

n cc nh hng bt li rng khp i vi con ngi, vt cht, kinh t hay mi trng, i

hi phi ng ph khn cp p ng cc nhu cu cp bch ca con ngi v c th phi cn

n s h tr t bn ngoi phc hi. Tnh d b tn thng v s phi by trc him ha

l cc yu t quyt nh ri ro thin tai [Hnh 1-1]. Cc hin tng thi tit v kh hu cc oan

dn ti thin tai khi m cc cng ng v h gia nh b phi by v rt d b tn thng trc

cc hin tng . Trong nhng phn tch trc y Vit Nam v trn th gii, tnh d b tn

thng c xem nh mt hm s ca mc phi by trc him ha, mc nhy cm v

kh nng thch ng ca h thng. Tch ring tnh d b tn thng v mc phi by trc

him ha gip gii thch r hn ti sao cc hin tng vt l phi cc oan v cc him ha

thng xuyn c th dn ti cc tc ng v thin tai cc oan, trong khi cc hin tng cc

oan c th khng gy nn cc tc ng v thin tai cc oan.

Cc tc ng cc oan ln h thng x hi, sinh thi v mi trng vt l c th l iu

kin tin cho cc tc ng vt l n cc hin tng k tip, v d nh cc t ma ln

Min Trung Vit Nam nm 1999 khng phi l mt hin tng n l [hp 1-2]. Mt lot cc

phn hi v tng tc kt ni cc s kin cc oan v h thng vt l vi cc phn ng sinh

thi c th khuch i cc tc ng vt l. Nhng vic c gy nn cc tc ng cc oan i

vi cc h thng x hi hay khng cn ph thuc vo mc phi by trc him ha v tnh

d b tn thng vi cc hin tng cc oan v cng ca cc hin tng vt l.

Cc chin lc qun l da vo gim thiu ri ro lin quan n cc hin tng phi cc

oan v xy ra nhiu ln lp li s gip gim nhng ri ro thin tai do cc hin tng

cc oan gy ra. Thch ng hiu qu vi BKH i hi s hiu bit v s a dng ca cc

qu trnh x hi v chiu hng pht trin nh hnh ri ro thin tai. Ri ro thin tai thng b

gy ra bi cc yu t mi trng, kinh t, x hi din ra lin tc, thng xuyn, hay ko di lm

tng tnh d tn thng v/hoc mc phi by trc him ha.

Ri ro thin tai c cu thnh v mt x hi. Mc phi by v tnh d b tn thng vi

him ha (ngha l cc oan kh hu) c cu thnh t nhng yu t chnh tr, kinh t, x hi,

vn ha, vt l v tm l. Qun l ri ro thin tai phi tnh n cc bin x hi v cc can thip

x hi c th lm gim cc hp phn ca ri ro c cu thnh v mt x hi.

Bin i kh hu lm gia tng nhng thch thc i vi vic phn b thch hp ca

nhng n lc QLRRTT. Bin i kh hu c th thay i gi tr trung bnh trong cc bin kh

hu, v d dn ti t ngy rt m v nhiu ngy cc nng ti mt a phng; tng mc

bin ng, v d rt nhiu ma h cc kh hoc cc m t; v/hoc thay i s phn b ca

mt bin kh hu, v d t ma h c nhit trung bnh v nhiu ma h rt nng [Hnh 1-2].

33

Tim nng v nhng thay i trong tt c cc c im ca kh hu s lm phc tp cho vic

nh gi, thng tin v qun l cc nguy c nu trn.

Qun l ri ro thin tai (QLRRTT) v thch ng vi BKH khc nhau v mc m trng

tm l cc hin tng cc oan, v c xem xt ti phm vi khng gian v thi gian.

Trc y, Vit Nam tp trung vo QLRRTT v c bit l v cc hin tng t nhin, nhng

hin nay kha cnh x hi cng nh t nhin ca ri ro thin tai u c xem xt v v th,

thch ng vi BKH l mt kha cnh ct li ca chnh sch kh hu.

Chnh sch, thc tin v kt qu pht trin l rt quan trng xc nh ri ro thin tai, v

th QLRRTT v thch ng vi BKH phi c lng ghp vo quy hoch v u t. Vic

lm gim t l suy gim ca cc dch v h sinh thi, nhng ci tin trong quy hoch khng

gian v s dng t th, vic tng cng sinh k nng thn, nhng tin b trong qun l

th v nng thn s gip xa i gim ngho, GNRRTT v thch ng vi BKH.

nh gi ri ro l im khi u cho vic thch ng vi BKH v gim nh v chia s ri

ro thin tai. Qu trnh nh gi v phn tch c th s dng mt lot cc cng c, ty thuc

vo bi cnh, tip cn d liu v cng ngh v s tham gia ca cc bn lin quan. Nhng cng

c ny s thay i t phn tch ri ro theo xc sut n cc phng php phn tch ri ro v bi

cnh c s tham gia cp a phng.

Hiu bit v ri ro v tc ng cc oan do BKH phi c tng cng cp a

phng, i vi nam gii, ph n, tr em, h gia nh v cng ng, gip chun b

thi v cch tip cn i vi cc vn phc tp. Nhn thc v ri ro c nh hng

bi cc yu t tm l v vn ha, cc gi tr v nim tin. Do vy nhng bi hc v truyn thng

ri ro hiu qu cn c trao i, chia s, v tch hp kin thc v cc ri ro lin quan n kh

hu i vi tt c cc nhm lin quan. [Hp 1-1]

Tri ngc vi qun l ring tng loi ri ro hoc ri ro ti cc a im c th, cch tip

cn h thng tch hp l hiu qu i vi qun l ri ro lin quan n kh hu cc oan.

Qun l ri ro hiu qu thng lin quan n mt danh mc cc hnh ng gim thiu v

chia s ri ro v ng ph vi cc hin tng v thin tai, tri ngc vi vic tp trung vo mt

hnh ng hoc mt loi hnh ng c th.

Hc tp l trung tm ca thch ng vi BKH. Hn na, nhng khi nim, mc tiu, v

cc qu trnh ca thch ng c nhiu im chung vi QLRRTT. Qun l ri ro thin tai v

thch ng vi BKH cung cp cc khung v v d v qu trnh hc tp pht trin c th gip

gim bt hoc trnh cc ro cn lm suy yu n lc thch ng hoc ro cn c th dn n

vic thc hin cc bin php thch ng km. Do s khng chc chn, mc phc tp v xy

ra trong thi gian di ca BKH, nhng n lc thch ng mnh m i hi cc chin lc qun

l ri ro lp li. [Hp 1-1; Hnh 1-3]

Cch tip cn da trn xu th v s khng chc chn ca cc him ha, mc phi

by v tnh d b tn thng trong tng lai do BKH v mc tiu phc hi nguyn

trng l cha QLRRTT v thch ng vi BKH. Phng php tip cn mi i vi

kh nng chng chu ca h thng x hi - sinh thi l m rng thm qu phm vi ca khi

nim ny bao gm kh nng t t chc, hc tp, v thch ng theo thi gian.

34

Do nhng hn ch trong qu kh v QLRRTT v din bin mi v BKH, cho nn vic

ci thin ng k trong QLRRTT v thch ng l cn thit v l mt phn ca qu trnh

pht trin, nhm gim thiu ri ro trong tng lai. Nhng n lc s hiu qu hn nu bit

hc hi cc kinh nghim v thnh cng trong QLRRTT cc vng ca Vit Nam trong nhng

thp k gn y [Hp 1-1, 1-2], hn na, nhng phng php tip cn mi xc nh, gim

thiu, chia s ri ro v qun l thin tai l cn thit. Vic QLRRTT v thch ng trong tng lai

s c hng li t mi lin kt cht ch gia th ch, ti chnh, chnh sch, chin lc, v

thc tin.

S tham gia ca cng ng trong quy hoch, bao gm s tham gia ca c nam gii v

ph n, vic s dng cc kin thc v nng lc a phng v cng ng, v s phn

cp trong vic ra quyt nh, c h tr bi cc chnh sch v hnh ng ca quc gia

v quc t, l rt quan trng GNRRTT v thch ng vi BKH. Vic s dng cc

phng php phn tch ri ro v bi cnh a phng, bt ngun t QLRRTT v by gi c

chp nhn bi nhiu c quan chnh ph v t chc x hi dn s trong vic thch ng, s thc

y hi nhp tt hn v hiu qu su rng hn gia c thch ng vi BKH v QLRRTT.

35

1.1. Gii thiu

1.1.1. Mc tiu v cu trc bo co

Bo co ny c xy dng da trn Bo co c bit ca y ban Lin chnh ph v BKH

(IPCC) v Qun l ri ro thin tai v cc hin tng cc oan nhm thc y thch ng vi

BKH (SREX) (IPCC, 2012a). Bo co c bit ca Vit Nam v qun l ri ro thin tai v

cc hin tng cc oan nhm thc y thch ng vi BKH (SREX Vit Nam) trnh by v

s dng nhng khi nim ca bo co SREX, phn tch tnh hnh Vit Nam theo nhng kt

qu ca bo co SREX ton cu.

SREX xem xt BKH v nhng tc ng ti cc hin tng cc oan (thi tit v kh hu),

thin tai, v Qun l ri ro thin tai (QLRRTT); cch con ngi i ph vi cc hin tng cc

oan v thin tai gp phn vo cc mc tiu v qu trnh thch ng; v cch thch ng vi

BKH c th c tch hp cht ch hn vi QLRRTT. SREX Vit Nam cng c trnh by

tng t, nhng tp trung ch yu vo tnh hnh Vit Nam. SREX Vit Nam trnh by nhng

bng chng mi nht v tnh d b tn thng, tc ng ca cc hin tng kh hu cc oan,

chin lc qun l ri ro, v cc la chn thch ng cho mt tng lai bn vng v c sc

chng chu ca Vit Nam. SREX Vit Nam cng trnh by ba mc tiu c th cho Vit Nam:

1) nh gi s ph hp v p dng nhng khi nim, phng php, chin lc, cng c

v kinh nghim tch ly c t QLRRTT lin quan n kh hu trong cc iu kin kh

hu trong qu kh nhm ch ng thch ng vi BKH v qun l cc hin tng cc

oan v thin tai trong tng lai trong hon cnh ca Vit Nam.

2) nh gi nhng trin vng v thch thc mi m BKH mang li cho lnh vc QLRRTT,

c bit l ti Vit Nam.

3) nh gi cc tc ng qua li gia s pht trin ca lnh vc QLRRTT v thch ng vi

BKH, c th l tng cng kh nng chng chu x hi v s bn vng m thch ng

mang li ti Vit Nam.

Tt c cc khi nim v nh ngha trong bo co SREX c s dng trong bo co SREX

Vit Nam vi nhng gii thch v minh ha hu ch. Mt s hnh trong SREX c nhc ti

nhiu ln v phn tch trong bo co SREX Vit Nam, mt s phn tch v cc oan kh hu,

tnh d b tn thng v ri ro thin tai c tm tt hoc trch dn; c bit l chng 1 trch

dn kh nhiu t bo co SREX (Lavell v nnk, 2012; IPCC, 2012a). Cng tng t nh vy,

cc khi nim v phn tch trong SREX c s dng trong nhiu chng khc ca bo co

SREX Vit Nam vi cc mc khc nhau. Ni dung ca cc chng nu r nhng phn ca

bo co SREX c s dng v trch dn, nhng khng cp hon ton cc kin ca bo

co SREX, phn ti liu tham kho t SREX cng c tm tt v dch sang ting Vit.

SREX trnh by nhng d tnh thay i v tn s, cng , phm vi khng gian v thi gian

ca cc hin tng thi tit v kh hu cc oan, bao gm cc hin tng thi tit v kh

tng thy vn nh cc t nng nng, ma ln, hn hn v bo, c th l trong Chng 3.

Mc d c nhng tin b quan trng trong nhng thp k gn y, nhng cn thit phi c

nhng quy trnh mi, ci thin v tng cng hn na d tnh v i ph vi cc hin

tng thi tit v kh hu cc oan, ci thin trong h thng cnh bo sm Vit Nam gp

phn gim nhng thit hi v ngi v ti sn.

36

Khung hnh ng Hyogo 2005-2015: Tng cng kh nng chng chu vi thin tai ca cc

quc gia v cng ng (UNISDR, 2005) c 168 quc gia thng qua trong c Vit Nam.

Khung hnh ng kt ni cc nguyn tc c nht tr, cc chnh sch v thc tin

QLRRTT. S cn thit phi tch hp QLRRTT v thch ng vi BKH hn na thc y

IPCC v C quan Chin lc Gim nh Ri ro Thin tai ca Lin Hip Quc (UNISDR) thc

hin bo co SREX. iu ny cng rt cn thit phi c thc hin i vi tnh hnh c th

Vit Nam.

i tng chnh m bo co SREX Vit Nam hng n l cc nh hoch nh chnh sch,

cc nh chuyn mn ca cc c quan chnh ph, cng nh cc t chc qun chng, chnh tr,

x hi, v ngh nghip (PSPMOs- hay gi tt l cc t chc x hi) ang quan tm n BKH

v QLRRTT. SREX Vit Nam cng nhm phc v cng ng hnh ng: (a) cng ng khoa

hc quan tm ti kha cnh mi trng, x hi v/hoc kinh t ca BKH; v (b) cng ng

QLRRTT bao gm cc nhn vin chnh ph cc cp, thnh vin ca cc t chc x hi v

cc t chc pht trin quc t c mt ti Vit Nam. Bo co tm tt phc v cc nh hoch nh

chnh sch ca bo co SREX Vit Nam trnh by nhng kt qu chnh v cung cp cc

khuyn ngh v chnh sch m cc nh hoch nh chnh sch v cc phng tin truyn thng

v cng chng quan tm.

Cc phn tip theo trong mc 1.1 trnh by nhng khi nim v nh ngha chnh c s dng

trong sut bo co v trnh by cc mi quan h gia QLRRTT v thch ng vi BKH. Mc

1.2 cung cp nhng khi nim v nh ngha c bn ca cc hin tng cc oan, cc tc

ng cc oan v thin tai. Mc 1.3 tho lun nhng thch thc trong vic nh lng nhng

thay i v ri ro do hu qu ca BKH. Mc 1.4 gii thiu cc khi nim c bn lin quan n

thch ng vi BKH.

Da trn nhng khi nim v nh ngha nhng phn tip theo ca chng 1, chng 2 m

t v phn tch su hn v mc phi by trc him ha v tnh d b tn thng, l cc

yu t quyt nh ri ro. Chng 3 trnh by v nhng hin tng kh hu cc oan xy ra

Vit Nam v nhng thay i c d tnh v cc oan kh hu, cng nh cc tc ng ln mi

trng t nhin. Chng 4 tho lun cc tc ng ca cc oan kh hu ln h sinh thi v h

nhn sinh. Chng 5 trnh by v qun l ri ro cp a phng v chng 6 tho lun cc

h thng qun l ri ro. Qun l ri ro cp quc t c lin quan n Vit Nam c tho lun

Chng 7. Chng 8 trnh by cc kt lun v khuyn ngh c th gip Vit Nam hng ti

mt tng lai bn vng v c kh nng chng chu v nhng hin tng cc oan ang tr nn

cc oan hn. Chng 9 trnh by nhng trng hp in hnh vi nhng thch thc v bi

hc t nhng hin tng cc oan lin quan n kh hu trong qu kh ca Vit Nam.

1.1.2. Nhng khi nim v nh ngha quan trng

Nhng khi nim v nh ngha lin quan n ri ro thin tai v thch ng vi BKH trnh by

trong chng ny c trch dn t bo co SREX (IPCC, 2012a). Trong phn gii thch cc

thut ng (Ph Lc 2), cc khi nim chnh v nh ngha c trnh by c bng ting Vit v

ting Anh.

37

1.1.2.1. Cc nh ngha lin quan ti nhng khi nim chung

BKH lin quan n s thay i trong trng thi ca kh hu c th c xc nh (v d nh

s dng cc kim tra thng k) bi nhng thay i trong gi tr trung bnh v/hoc s thay i

cc thuc tnh ca n, v trong thi gian di, thng l vi thp k hoc lu hn. BKH c th

l do qu trnh t nhin bn trong hoc do nhng tc ng t bn ngoi, nh s thay i ca

chu k mt tri, hot ng ca ni la hoc tc ng lin tc ca con ngi ti cc thnh phn

ca kh quyn hay trong s dng t (IPCC, 2013).

Cc hin tng cc oan (thi tit v kh hu) v thin tai l hai trng tm qun l ri ro ca

bo co SREX Vit Nam.

Hin tng cc oan l s xut hin gi tr ca mt yu t thi tit hoc kh hu cao hn

(hoc thp hn) gi tr ngng, gn cc gii hn trn (hay di) ca dy cc gi tr quan trc

c ca yu t (IPCC, 2012a trang 30).

Thin tai: cc thay i nghim trng trong chc nng bnh thng ca mt cng ng hay mt

x hi do cc him ha t nhin tng tc vi cc iu kin d b tn thng ca x hi, dn

n cc nh hng bt li rng khp i vi con ngi, vt cht, kinh t hay mi trng, i

hi phi ng ph khn cp p ng cc nhu cu cp bch ca con ngi v c th phi cn

n s h tr t bn ngoi phc hi (IPCC, 2012a trang 31).

Cc him ha t nhin c cp trong nh ngha ca thin tai c th l t nhin, t nhin

- x hi (bt ngun t cc hot ng lm suy gim hoc bin i mi trng t nhin ca con

ngi), hoc c ngun gc hon ton do con ngi to nn (IPCC, 2012a trang 31).

Ri ro thin tai c nh ngha l kh nng xy ra cc thay i nghim trng trong cc chc

nng bnh thng ca mt cng ng hay mt x hi mt giai on thi gian c th, do cc

him ha t nhin tng tc vi cc iu kin d b tn thng ca x hi, dn n cc nh

hng bt li rng khp i vi con ngi, vt cht, kinh t hay mi trng, i hi phi ng

ph khn cp p ng cc nhu cu cp bch ca con ngi v c th phi cn n s h

tr t bn ngoi phc hi (IPCC, 2012a trang 32). Ri ro thin tai xut hin t vic kt hp

gia him ha t nhin v tnh d b tn thng ca cc yu t b phi by trc him ha, v

lm tng kh nng khng thc hin cc chc nng bnh thng ca x hi khi thin tai xy ra

(Xem chng 2).

Nhng nh ngha trn v ri ro thin tai v thin tai khng bao gm cc tc ng tim tng v

thc t ca cc hin tng kh hu v thy vn ln cc h sinh thi hoc cc h thng vt l

trn tri t. Trong bo co ny, nhng tc ng c coi l c lin quan n thin tai nu bao

gm mt hoc nhiu trng hp sau: (i) Cc tc ng gy nh hng xu n sinh k bi nh

hng nghim trng cc dch v sinh thi v ti nguyn thin nhin ca cng ng; (ii) cc tc

ng c hu qu i vi an ninh lng thc; v/hoc (iii) cc tc ng c nh hng n sc

khe con ngi.

Thm ha x hi l cc tc ng nghim trng n h thng x hi nhng c th c hoc

khng tc ng n cc h thng t nhin v sinh thi (IPCC, 2012a trang 32). Thm ha mi

trng xut hin khi c tc ng trc tip ca hot ng con ngi v qu trnh t nhin i

vi mi trng l nhng nguyn nhn c bn (vi tc ng phn hi trc tip c th xy ra i

vi h thng x hi) (IPCC, 2012a trang 32).

38

hiu r hn v khi nim ri ro thin tai (v thin tai), iu quan trng l phi xem xt cc

khi nim him ha, tnh d b tn thng v mc phi by trc him ha (Xem hnh 1-1).

Hnh 1-1. Cc khi nim chnh ca SREX v SREX Vit Nam

KH HU

s kin kh

hu / thi tit

cc oan

Mc phi

by trc

him ha

Tnh trng d

b tn

thng

RI RO

THIN TAI

Qun l

ri ro

thin tai

Thch ng

vi BKH

BKH do

con ngi

gy ra

PHT TRIN

Pht thi kh nh knh

Thin tai

Bin i

t nhin

Ngun: (IPCC, 2012a trang 31)

Him ha l s xut hin tim tng ca cc hin tng t nhin hoc do con ngi gy ra c

th gy thng tt, cht ngi hoc nh hng sc khe, lm h hi hoc mt mt ti sn, c

s h tng, sinh k, cung cp dch v v ti nguyn mi trng (IPCC, 2012a trang 32).

Mc phi by (trc him ha) c s dng ch s hin din (theo v tr) ca con

ngi, sinh k, cc dch v mi trng v cc ngun ti nguyn, c s h tng, hoc cc ti

sn kinh t, x hi hoc vn ha nhng ni c th chu nhng nh hng bt li bi cc hin

tng t nhin v v th c th l i tng ca nhng tn hi, mt mt, h hng tim tng

trong tng lai (IPCC, 2012a trang 32).

Tnh d b tn thng l xu hng hay khuynh hng b nh hng xu. Khuynh hng ny

cu thnh mt c tnh ni b ca cc yu t nh hng. Trong lnh vc ri ro thin tai, iu

ny bao gm cc c tnh ca mt ngi hoc mt nhm v tnh hnh ca h c nh hng

n kh nng d on, i ph, chng li, v phc hi t cc tc ng c hi ca cc hin

tng vt l (Wisner v nnk, 2004). Tnh d b tn thng l kt qu ca ngun ti lc x hi,

iu kin lch s, kinh t, chnh tr, vn ha, th ch, ti nguyn thin nhin v iu kin mi

trng v cc quy trnh (IPCC, 2012a trang 31).

ngha x hi c bn v gi tr d on ca tnh d b tn thng c nhn mnh trong cc

nh ngha s dng trong bo co ny. Tuy nhin, nh ngha trc y ca IPCC cp n

mc m mt h thng nhy cm hoc khng th i ph vi nhng tc ng bt li ca

BKH, bao gm cc dao ng theo quy lut v cc cc oan kh hu. Tnh d b tn thng l

39

hm s ca tnh cht, cng v mc (phm vi) ca cc bin i v dao ng kh hu, m

mt h thng b phi by, mc nhy cm v nng lc thch ng ca h thng (IPCC,

2007 trang 883; xem IPCC, 2001 trang 995). nh ngha ny coi cc nguyn nhn vt l v

nhng nh hng ca chng l mt kha cnh r rng ca tnh d b tn thng, trong khi bi

cnh x hi c t trong khi nim ca s mn cm v nng lc thch ng. nh ngha trc

y ca IPCC c s dng trong cc ti liu Vit Nam, trong cc tc gi s dng

phng trnh V = f (E, S, AC) (tnh d b tn thng = l hm s ca cc mc (Phi by

trc him ha, mn cm v Nng lc thch ng)) l c s phn tch (xem v d Ng Th

Vn Anh v nnk, 2013). Tuy nhin, trong nh ngha c s dng trong bo co ny, bi cnh

x hi c nhn mnh mt cch r rng v tnh d b tn thng c xc nh c lp vi

cc hin tng t nhin (IPCC, 2012a trang 33).

Nng lc l tng hp cc ngun lc, im mnh v c tnh sn c trong tng c nhn, cng

ng, x hi v t chc c th c s dng nhm t c cc mc tiu chung (IPCC, 2012a

trang 33). Nng lc bao gm cc iu kin v cc c im cho php cc t chc, cc a

phng, cc c nhn v.v tip cn v s dng cc ti nguyn x hi, kinh t, tm l, vn ha

v ti nguyn t nhin c lin quan n sinh k, cng vi nhng thng tin cn thit gim tnh

d b tn thng v gii quyt cc hu qu ca thin tai.

Thiu nng lc c th coi l mt phn ca tnh d b tn thng, v cng c th coi l mt khi

nim ring bit, khng phi l mt phn ca d b tn thng nhng gp phn lm tng tnh d

b tn thng. S hin din ca tnh d b tn thng l s thiu nng lc tng i ch khng

phi l tuyt i.

Nng lc c nhn mnh trong nghin cu v khc phc thin tai ca Anderson v Woodrow

(1989) nh mt cch thay i cn cn phn tch t cc kha cnh tiu cc ca tnh d b tn

thng n nhng hnh ng tch cc ca ngi dn, v khi nim v nng lc l nn tng