Automotive Safety: Driving or being driven? ESV conference...Automotive Technology. Major drivers In...
Transcript of Automotive Safety: Driving or being driven? ESV conference...Automotive Technology. Major drivers In...
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Automotive Safety: Driving or being driven?
C/OFE4 | June 15th, 2009 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2009. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung, Reproduktion, Bearbeitung, Weitergabe sowie für den Fall von Schutzrechtsanmeldungen.
Automotive Technology
Automotive Safety: Driving or being driven? ESV conference
Stuttgart, June 15th 2009 Bernd Bohr
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Automotive Safety: Driving or being driven?
C/OFE4 | June 15th, 2009 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2009. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung, Reproduktion, Bearbeitung, Weitergabe sowie für den Fall von Schutzrechtsanmeldungen.
Automotive Technology
1 Safety as top priority – examples of driving factors
2 Active and passive safety systems – markets today
3 Technology driving improved safety
4 Conclusions
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Automotive Safety: Driving or being driven?
C/OFE4 | June 15th, 2009 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2009. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung, Reproduktion, Bearbeitung, Weitergabe sowie für den Fall von Schutzrechtsanmeldungen.
Automotive Technology
World
NAMWEU
Asia w/o Japan/KoreaJapan, Korea
Driver 1: Worldwide production forecast – growth in EM
15,413,0
10,011,8 13,1 14,0
2007 2008 2009 2011 2013 2017
16,7 15,111,9 13,4 14,5 16,0
2007 2008 2009 2011 2013 2017
14,7 15,812,7
15,3 16,1 16,3
2007 2008 2009 2011 2013 2017
16 15,6 14,718,4
22,428,4
2007 2008 2009 2011 2013 2017
3,4 3,7 3,5 4,3 5,2
2007 2008 2009 2013 2017
LAM73,0 70,3
58,570,1
79,890,0
2007 2008 2009 2011 2013 2017
Asia as main driver of worldwide PC fleet growth – share of small cars increases
* Source: Bosch AMP cycle I 2009
[m Vehicles]
0,8% p.a.0,6% p.a.
3,8% p.a.
6,9% p.a.
0,3% p.a.2,8% p.a.
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Automotive Safety: Driving or being driven?
C/OFE4 | June 15th, 2009 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2009. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung, Reproduktion, Bearbeitung, Weitergabe sowie für den Fall von Schutzrechtsanmeldungen.
Automotive Technology
Driver 2: UrbanizationDevelopment of Urbanization worldwide, 1950 - 2030
Quellen: World Urbanization Prospects, UN 2007; WBCSD, C/CS Heinke
29 %
37 %
50 %
60 %
Portion of urban dwellers worldwide, %
47 %
30 %
43 %
Urbanization leads to traffic concentration – supporting segment shifts
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Automotive Safety: Driving or being driven?
C/OFE4 | June 15th, 2009 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2009. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung, Reproduktion, Bearbeitung, Weitergabe sowie für den Fall von Schutzrechtsanmeldungen.
Automotive Technology
Major drivers
In developed countries extensive governmental programs to enhance traffic safety, reduce number of fatalities and decrease cost for society lead to focus on more efficient safety systems.
Segment shift toward smaller and lighter cars – driven by growth in emerging markets and urbanization lead to growing importance of passive and active safety systems.
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Automotive Safety: Driving or being driven?
C/OFE4 | June 15th, 2009 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2009. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung, Reproduktion, Bearbeitung, Weitergabe sowie für den Fall von Schutzrechtsanmeldungen.
Automotive Technology
1 Safety as top priority – examples of driving factors
2 Active and passive safety systems – markets today
3 Technology driving improved safety
4 Conclusions
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Automotive Technology
Automotive Safety: Driving or being driven?
Active and passive systems have strongly improved traffic safety – Emerging Markets demonstrate strong increase in traffic fatalities
Source: IRTAD 2009, Government of India: Department of road transport and highways
• graph w/o Estland, Lettland, Litauen, Malta and Cyprus, Data of Slovakia and Poland partially
0
25
50
75
100
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Europe EU25*
India
105,749
39,400
Seatbelt Airbag Sidebag ESP®ABS
`000 traffic fatalities
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Automotive Safety: Driving or being driven?
C/OFE4 | June 15th, 2009 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2009. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung, Reproduktion, Bearbeitung, Weitergabe sowie für den Fall von Schutzrechtsanmeldungen.
Installation Rate by Production 2008
Automotive Technology
USA
1 Passenger cars & LCV <6t2 TCS includes ABS 3 ESP includes ABS and TCS
1
64% 55%97%
ABS TCS² ESP³
51% 49%
90%
ABS TCS² ESP³
Europe
8% 7%63%
ABS TCS² ESP³
China
33% 33%
89%
ABS TCS² ESP³
Japan
1% 1%16%
ABS TCS² ESP³
Brazil
35% 33%
76%
ABS TCS² ESP³
World
19%1%1%
ABS TCS² ESP³
India
ESP mandatory from
09/2011 onwards for all
vehicles up to 4,5 tons European Parliament
adopted legislation on
ESP for all new vehicles*
as per 11/2014
* M1, M2, M3, N1, N2, N3
ABS and Front-Airbag
mandatory from 2014
onwards for PC and LCV;
ABS for all vehicles
6% 8%
32%
Small Mini Compact
ESP-installation rates in small cars, world
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Automotive Safety: Driving or being driven?
C/OFE4 | June 15th, 2009 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2009. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung, Reproduktion, Bearbeitung, Weitergabe sowie für den Fall von Schutzrechtsanmeldungen.
Automotive Technology
Road safety – today’s world
Small car segments – which are growing – have much lower share of active safety systems.
Emerging markets need to focus much more on safety. Continuation of the current trends will lead to a strong rise in fatalities, overcompensating the improvements in the US and EU.
Legislation plays key role to improve situation.
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Automotive Safety: Driving or being driven?
C/OFE4 | June 15th, 2009 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2009. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung, Reproduktion, Bearbeitung, Weitergabe sowie für den Fall von Schutzrechtsanmeldungen.
Automotive Technology
1 Safety as top priority – examples of driving factors
2 Active and passive safety systems – markets today
3 Technology driving improved safety
4 Conclusions
11Automotive Technology
Automotive Safety: Driving or being driven?
C/OFE4 | June 15th, 2009 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2009. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung, Reproduktion, Bearbeitung, Weitergabe sowie für den Fall von Schutzrechtsanmeldungen.
Further improvements through sensor fusion
All abbreviations within this presentationused for simplification purpose
Passive SafetyAirbag Pedestrian Protection
SteeringEPS
Brake
TCSESP
EHBSuspension
Interfaces to Active Suspension
2000 2010 Future20202003
Surrounding SensorsRadar Video
PSS
ESP-AFS
ACCLateral Guidance
Vehicle Guidance
Semi- Autonomous Driving
Vehicle Dynamics Management
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Optimal deceleration with Predictive Emergency Braking
Evaluation based on 1103 rear end crashes caused by cars Source: Bosch Analysis of GIDAS Database (2001-2006)
No brakingFull braking Partial braking
20% 49% 31%
Forward Collision Warning
PCW Warning by visual, acoustic and/or brake jerk
EBA Target braking with driver brake inputAEB Automatic braking to reduce speed of the vehicle and mitigate collision
PEBPCW
Predictive Collision Warning
EBAEmergency Braking Assist
AEBAutomatic Emergency Braking
Accident situation
Driver behaviour prior
to rear-end crashes
System assistance
Automotive Technology
Automotive Safety: Driving or being driven?
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Automotive Safety: Driving or being driven?
C/OFE4 | June 15th, 2009 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2009. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung, Reproduktion, Bearbeitung, Weitergabe sowie für den Fall von Schutzrechtsanmeldungen.
Automotive Technology
Support in critical situations - Evasive Steering Support
ESS-T*
Hazards
Getting off road
Incomplete maneuver (rear-end collision)
High risk of even more severe crashes
Situation
Optimal steering support to avoid front crashes
Reduced risk of crashes and injuries
Potential rear-end collision
Emergency braking is insufficient to avoid accident Evasive maneuver must be undertaken Driver inexperienced and stressed
Driver likely over-reacts or under-reacts
* Evasive Steering Support by Torque
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Automotive Safety: Driving or being driven?
C/OFE4 | June 15th, 2009 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2009. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung, Reproduktion, Bearbeitung, Weitergabe sowie für den Fall von Schutzrechtsanmeldungen.
Automotive Technology
NavnsorPreventing Accidents – C2X and sensor fusionPositioning
Car-to-Roadside
Radar/Laser
Video
UltrasonicInfrared
Car-to-Car
Digital Map(lane geometry,
attributes& route information)
Ultrasonic: < 8 mVideo: < 80 mInfrared: < 150 mRadar/Laser: < 200 m
up to 2 km
DAB, GSM(TMC)
Car-to-Infrastructure
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Automotive Safety: Driving or being driven?
C/OFE4 | June 15th, 2009 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2009. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung, Reproduktion, Bearbeitung, Weitergabe sowie für den Fall von Schutzrechtsanmeldungen.
Automotive Technology
Customer benefits
reduced size and weight by use of innovative packaging concept
concept based on standard Bosch components
Simplified mounting concept
Bosch invests in affordable technologies - e.g. Airbag Basic Line
Approach
development at low cost location with support from RB Germany
manufactured in the customer region
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Automotive Safety: Driving or being driven?
C/OFE4 | June 15th, 2009 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2009. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung, Reproduktion, Bearbeitung, Weitergabe sowie für den Fall von Schutzrechtsanmeldungen.
Automotive Technology
Investing in road safety in emerging markets
RB-Investment in systems for low price vehicles – to support the change from 2-wheelers to affordable cars
Since 2007 ABS production in Brazil
In October 2009 ABS production in India
Supporting Motorization
Investing in the regions
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Automotive Safety: Driving or being driven?
C/OFE4 | June 15th, 2009 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2009. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung, Reproduktion, Bearbeitung, Weitergabe sowie für den Fall von Schutzrechtsanmeldungen.
Automotive Technology
1 Safety as top priority – examples of driving factors
2 Active and passive safety systems – markets today
3 Technology driving improved safety
4 Conclusions
18
Automotive Safety: Driving or being driven?
C/OFE4 | June 15th, 2009 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2009. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung, Reproduktion, Bearbeitung, Weitergabe sowie für den Fall von Schutzrechtsanmeldungen.
Automotive Technology
Conclusion
Urbanization and growth of motorization in emerging markets drive growth of the smaller car segments.
High market penetration of passive and active safety systems – esp. belt, ESP, airbag – is crucial for achieving low injury and fatality rates.
Providing systems for LPV to support the change from 2-wheelers to affordable cars is important to improve road safety in emerging markets.
Future reduction of injuries and fatalities through advanced system with a network of sensors and intelligent actuators including C2X
Legislation plays an important role.
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Automotive Safety: Driving or being driven?
C/OFE4 | June 15th, 2009 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2009. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung, Reproduktion, Bearbeitung, Weitergabe sowie für den Fall von Schutzrechtsanmeldungen.
Automotive Technology