American Shipping Company ASA - Zetta ASfiles.zetta.no/...American Shipping Company ASA Company...

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Slide 1 American Shipping Company ASA Company Presentation 10 September 2014

Transcript of American Shipping Company ASA - Zetta ASfiles.zetta.no/...American Shipping Company ASA Company...

Page 1: American Shipping Company ASA - Zetta ASfiles.zetta.no/...American Shipping Company ASA Company Presentation 10 September 2014 Important information Slide 2 • This presentation (the

Slide 1

American Shipping Company ASA Company Presentation

10 September 2014

Page 2: American Shipping Company ASA - Zetta ASfiles.zetta.no/...American Shipping Company ASA Company Presentation 10 September 2014 Important information Slide 2 • This presentation (the

Important information

Slide 2

• This presentation (the "Company Presentation") has been prepared solely for information purposes. In this Company Presentation,

references to "American Shipping Company", “AMSC”, the "Company", the "Issuer", "we", "our", "us", or similar terms refer to American

Shipping Company ASA, except where context otherwise requires.

• This Company Presentation is furnished by the Company, and it is expressly noted that no representation or warranty, express or implied,

as to the accuracy or completeness of any information included herein is given by the Company and its financial advisors.

• An investment in the Company should be considered as a high-risk investment. Certain risk factors relating to the Company which the

Company deems most significant as at the date of this Company Update, is included under the caption “Summary of Risk Factors" in this

Company Presentation.

• This Company Presentation is current as of 10 September 2014. Neither the delivery of this Company Presentation nor any further

discussions of the Company with any of the recipients shall, under any circumstances, create any implication that there has been no

change in the affairs of the Company since such date. This Company Presentation contains several forward-looking statements relating to

the business, future financial performance and results of the Company and/or the industry in which it operates. In particular, this Company

Presentation contains forward-looking statements such as with respect to the Company's recapitalization proposal and the potential

benefits associated therewith, the potential future revenues and cash flows of the Company, the potential future demand and market for the

Company's assets, the Company’s equity and debt financing requirements and its ability to obtain financing in a timely manner and at

favorable terms. Forward-looking statements concern future circumstances and results and other statements that are not historical facts,

sometimes identified by the words "believes", "expects", "predicts", "intends", "projects", "plans", "estimates", "aims", "foresees",

"anticipates", "targets", and similar expressions. The forward-looking statements contained in this Company Presentation, including

assumptions, opinions and views of the Company or cited from third party sources, are solely opinions and forecasts which are subject to

risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual events to differ materially from any anticipated development.

Page 3: American Shipping Company ASA - Zetta ASfiles.zetta.no/...American Shipping Company ASA Company Presentation 10 September 2014 Important information Slide 2 • This presentation (the

AMSC – “Best pure play in rising Jones Act market”?

Slide 3

Share price development explained by:

US shale oil boom

Corpus Christi seaborne shipments

Increasing TC rates

Pricing potential

looking at future cash

flows and dividend

capacity

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Slide 4

Strong market

fundamentals

• Strong and improving market conditions

• High charter rates and increasing demand for shipping as a result of the shale oil boom

• Limited supply of vessels, scrapping of old tankers, and only two shipyards

Increasing

dividends

• Increasing profit share from OSG

• Refinance current debt structure to achieve lower cost of funds and flexible amortization

• Full payout dividend policy

MLP/Yieldco

• Establish MLP/Yieldco with public listing in the US generating low cost of capital and superior valuation

• Maintain AMSC as sponsor and General Partner

• Free up capital, dividend out all excess cash

Potential M&A

• AMSC fleet and contracts are attractive to MLPs and Yieldcos as dropdown candidates

• An AMSC acquisition is highly accretive to MLP/Yieldco buyers at current valuation

• OSG out of Chapter 11

Valuation upside coming from…

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All ten AMSC vessels on bareboat charters with OSG

Slide 5

Long term

bareboat charters

50 / 50 profit split

with AMSC

Long term time

charters

• OSG has firm bareboat charters for

all vessels until December 2019 with

evergreen extension options

• OSG time charters the vessels to oil

majors for Jones Act trade

• AMSC receives fixed annual BBC of

USD 88m + 50% of the profits

generated by OSG under the TCs

• Significant upside potential through

an attractive profit sharing agreement

in tight Jones Act market

• OSG recently emerged from Chapter

11 as a financially healthy company

with new shareholders, new Board of

Directors and new management

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Lean organisation with highly experienced management team

Slide 6

Annette

Malm

Justad

Chairperson

• Member of AMSC’s Board of Directors since December 2007

• Board member of PGS, Awilco LNG, Store Norske Kulkompani and Small Turbine Partners

• 2006 – 10: CEO of Eitzen Maritime Services ASA

• Previously: Various positions within Yara International ASA, Norgas Carriers/IM Skaugen ASA, and Norsk

Hydro ASA

• Master degree in Technology Management from MIT (Sloan School)/NTH/NHH in addition to a MSc in

Chemical Engineering from NTH

Dag

Fasmer

Wittusen

President

/ CEO

• CEO of AMSC since July 2011

• Previously: Special advisor to Aker ASA and Board Member of AMSC since 2009, in addition to

numerous executive positions within the Aker Group, including CEO of Aker Finans AS, Executive

Director of TH Global (ex Kvaerner PLC), member of various Aker boards, Executive Vice President of

Aker RGI and Managing Director of RGI. Also co-founder of investment banking group Orkla Finans, Vice

President of Eksportfinans and Loan Officer at the World Bank

• BA from Brown University and an MPA from Princeton University

Leigh

Jaros

Business

Controller /

Finance

Manager

• Controller in AMSC from July 2008 and CFO July 2011 – June 2014

• Previously: +10 years of progressively responsible corporate financial experience including financial

reporting, analysis and budgeting. Ms. Jaros was employed by Aker Philadelphia Shipyard as its

Accounting Supervisor prior to joining AMSC.

• BSc in Finance and Economics from West Chester University

• Mr. Magnussen was appointed CFO of AMSC effective 1 June 2014.

• Previously: Director of the Investment Banking Division in DNB Markets where he has worked since

2007. Prior to that he worked for five years as Vice President of Corporate Banking in DNB Bank in New

York, Singapore and Oslo.

• MBA from Columbia University, New York and a Master of Science in International Business from the

Norwegian School of Management, Oslo

Pål

Lothe

Magnussen

CFO

Source: AMSC

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The product tanker market is expected to remain tight in the coming years

USDk/day

’20e ’18e ’16e ’14e ’12 ’10 ’08 ’06 ’04 ’02 ’00

Favorable supply/demand dynamics Daily Time Charter Rate Trend for Jones Act Tankers

Source: Navigistics Consulting © as of Aug 2013, Arctic Sec. / Pareto Sec. research Slide 7

Increase in shale oil production

Longer shipping distances

Limited newbuilding capacity

Orderbook includes few open vessels

Shuttle tanker requirement

Surplus refinery capacity in Gulf coast area

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Shipping demand is driven by shale oil boom and increased refining in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico

Shale oil and shift of U.S. refining to Gulf Coast increases

demand for Jones Act tanker vessels Seaborne shale oil out of Corpus Christi port, Texas

Shale oil production forecast

Eagle

Ford GoM

Permian

U.S. oil fields

% of crude refinery capacity %

Bakken

19% 28%

10%

Bluewater

Pipeline

Barges

2

0

10

8

6

4

2025 2020 2015 2010 2005 2000

MMbbl/d

Notes: 1) Fleet deployment for U.S. Jones Act product tankers by capacity Source: Port of Corpus Christi, Rystad Energy, EIA

Tanker fleet deployment, April 2014 1)

Military

33%

25%

Crude Oil

7%

Chemicals

West

Coast 6%

Clean US

GoM

29%

Slide 8

+112% increase in production in 2013-22

600

400

200

0

Kbbl/d

Jan-

14

Jul-

13

Jan-

13

Jul-

12

Jan-

12

Jul-

11

Jan-

11

Jun-

14

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-3821

-693

5296

-22

406

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

PADD I (EastCoast)

PADD2(Midwest)

PADD3 (GulfCoast)

PADD4 (RockyMountains)

PADD5 (WestCoast)

Kbbls

/Day

Surplus of refinery capacity in Gulf coast area will continue to drive product flows

9

US Petroleum Product demand forecast (EIA)

SURPLUS

DEFICIT

Source: EIA, IEA, Arctic Securities Research

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A new trade lane is emerging, driving crude oil from the U.S. Gulf of Mexico to U.S. East Coast

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2013 2014 2011 2012 2015

USD/bbl

Bakken price less LLS price

Brent price less LLS price

LLS more expensive than Brent / Bakken

LLS more economical than Brent / Bakken

Notes: 1) Brent price includes USD 2/bbl for transportation on imports while Bakken and LSS includes USD 15/bbl and USD 4.5/bbl respectively Source: Bloomberg, Plains All American, RBN Energy

It may become economical to

deliver LLS oil directly to the

U.S. East Coast, thereby

creating a significant increase

in Jones Act vessel demand

Price arbitrage between Louisiana Light Sweet oil and Bakken and

Brent oils is creating a new trade pattern

10

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Source: Rystad Energy, OSG statement Note (*): Some of these field development may also be served by pipeline

Great White: 8000ft, Shell

Gotcha: 8000ft, Shell

Walker Ridge

Alaminos Canyon

Big Foot: 5000ft, Chevron

Stones: 9500ft, BP

Chinook/ Cascade:

8200ft, Petrobras

Jack: 7000ft, Chevron

Julia: 7000ft, Exxon

Keathley Canyon

Lucius: 7100ft, Anadarko

Producing Development

Discovery

St Malo: 6900ft, Chevron

Shenandoah: 6000ft, Anadarko

Slide 11

U.S. Gulf of Mexico deepwater developments will create significant demand for shuttle tankers

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Demand for Jones Act tankers estimated to grow by 22 product tanker equivalents within 2020

12

Tonnage demand growth in US trade (converted to 46,000dwt vessel equivalents)

Source: Arctic Securities Research

2 2 2 31 23 3

34

4

2

4

7 77

77

1

2 22

34

1

13

3

4

4

0

5

10

15

20

25

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

# o

f 46,0

00dw

t vess

el

equiv

ale

nts

Other/Chemicals Product USGC - USEC Crude USGC Crude/Product USWC Shuttle GoM

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73 vessels in the product/crude tanker trade today – 14 players – consolidation?

Slide 13

# of Jones Act tanker vessels by owner

Notes: 1) OSG ATB fleet includes 2 lightering vessels, which are illustrated separate ly in OSG’s own fleet reports 2) Including 2x SeaRiver tankers from 1978/79 which are expected to enter service 3) Philly Tankers has two options that come in addition Source: Navigistics Consulting ©, Arctic Sec. / Pareto Sec. research

2

3

Philly Tankers3)

5 5

5

6

4 3

10 2 1)

17 2

Newbuild ATBs (total of 6)

Newbuild tankers (total of 14)

Tankers (total of 31)

ATBs (total of 42)

19

12

10

7

8

7

10

4

4

3 7

1

32)

1

2

2

1 3

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Yard capacity is filling up beyond 2018 - limiting supply of new vessels

Delivery schedule of new commercial U.S.Jones Act

vessels from APSI and NASSCO

Source: Navigistics, United States Maritime Administration (MARAD) / IHS / Clarksons

Only NASSCO and Aker Philadelphia Shipyard have

capability to build MR size product tankers at

competitive prices and timetables

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Yard

AKPS-Crowley 4 (H24)

AKPS-Crowley 3 (H23)

AKPS-Crowley 2 (H22)

AKPS-Crowley 1 (H21)

SeaRiver 2 (H20)

Tote Container 2

Vessel

Matson Container 2 (H30)

Matson Container 1 (H29)

Philly Tankers 4 (H28) [option]

Philly Tankers 3 (H27) [option]

Philly Tankers 2 (H26)

Philly Tankers 1 (H25)

Tote Container 1

Seacor 3

Seacor 2

Seacor 1

APT 5

APT 4

APT 3

APT 2

APT 1

Matson Container 5 (H33) [option]

Matson Container 4 (H32) [option]

Matson Container 3 (H31) [option]

Slide 14

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OSG time-charter structure – upside potential

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Increasing dividend capacity with higher OSG time charter rates (Illustrative)

Slide 16

Note: Assuming 96.5% utilization , estimated 2014 break even rates of USD 50k / day, bareboat revenue including DPO and refinanced debt structure

Profit share

Bare boat

Limited downside and significant upside potential for dividend distribution going forward

Average TC rate for the ten vessels

EB

ITD

A (U

SD

millio

ns)

$0.13 $0.15

$0.17 $0.19

$0.22 $0.26 $0.30

Potential dividend capacity per share per quarter

$0.10

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Low cost of capital achieved in an AMSC MLP/Yieldco enables vessel transactions at superior valuations

Cash flows and drop down strategy Company and capital structure post MLP/Yieldco IPO

Slide 17

AMSC Sponsor and ”GP”

IPO fleet

MLP/Yieldco Listed in New York

SPCs Ship owning entities

Public

shareholders

6-7% div yield

51%

100%

49%

2015 IPO 2016 2017 2018

Additional vessels to be

dropped down creating growth

Low leverage

term loan

Low cost of capital

Combination of

cash and equity

proceeds

Public

shareholders

Reduced

outstanding debt

Cash proceeds Growing

dividends

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Investment highlight

Slide 18

Unique position in rising market Key AMSC value triggers

• Modern asset base

• Attractive and increasing cash flows

• Strong market fundamentals

• Pure play exposure to Jones Act tankers and to

U.S. tight oil revolution

• Execution of full payout dividend policy

• Refinance current debt with lower cost of capital

and flexible amortization profile

• Launch Yieldco process aiming for a Q2 2015 listing

• OSG out of chapter 11 with new stakeholders

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Q&A