American Shipping Company ASA - Zetta ASfiles.zetta.no/...American Shipping Company ASA Company...
Transcript of American Shipping Company ASA - Zetta ASfiles.zetta.no/...American Shipping Company ASA Company...
Slide 1
American Shipping Company ASA Company Presentation
10 September 2014
Important information
Slide 2
• This presentation (the "Company Presentation") has been prepared solely for information purposes. In this Company Presentation,
references to "American Shipping Company", “AMSC”, the "Company", the "Issuer", "we", "our", "us", or similar terms refer to American
Shipping Company ASA, except where context otherwise requires.
• This Company Presentation is furnished by the Company, and it is expressly noted that no representation or warranty, express or implied,
as to the accuracy or completeness of any information included herein is given by the Company and its financial advisors.
• An investment in the Company should be considered as a high-risk investment. Certain risk factors relating to the Company which the
Company deems most significant as at the date of this Company Update, is included under the caption “Summary of Risk Factors" in this
Company Presentation.
• This Company Presentation is current as of 10 September 2014. Neither the delivery of this Company Presentation nor any further
discussions of the Company with any of the recipients shall, under any circumstances, create any implication that there has been no
change in the affairs of the Company since such date. This Company Presentation contains several forward-looking statements relating to
the business, future financial performance and results of the Company and/or the industry in which it operates. In particular, this Company
Presentation contains forward-looking statements such as with respect to the Company's recapitalization proposal and the potential
benefits associated therewith, the potential future revenues and cash flows of the Company, the potential future demand and market for the
Company's assets, the Company’s equity and debt financing requirements and its ability to obtain financing in a timely manner and at
favorable terms. Forward-looking statements concern future circumstances and results and other statements that are not historical facts,
sometimes identified by the words "believes", "expects", "predicts", "intends", "projects", "plans", "estimates", "aims", "foresees",
"anticipates", "targets", and similar expressions. The forward-looking statements contained in this Company Presentation, including
assumptions, opinions and views of the Company or cited from third party sources, are solely opinions and forecasts which are subject to
risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual events to differ materially from any anticipated development.
AMSC – “Best pure play in rising Jones Act market”?
Slide 3
Share price development explained by:
US shale oil boom
Corpus Christi seaborne shipments
Increasing TC rates
Pricing potential
looking at future cash
flows and dividend
capacity
Slide 4
Strong market
fundamentals
• Strong and improving market conditions
• High charter rates and increasing demand for shipping as a result of the shale oil boom
• Limited supply of vessels, scrapping of old tankers, and only two shipyards
Increasing
dividends
• Increasing profit share from OSG
• Refinance current debt structure to achieve lower cost of funds and flexible amortization
• Full payout dividend policy
MLP/Yieldco
• Establish MLP/Yieldco with public listing in the US generating low cost of capital and superior valuation
• Maintain AMSC as sponsor and General Partner
• Free up capital, dividend out all excess cash
Potential M&A
• AMSC fleet and contracts are attractive to MLPs and Yieldcos as dropdown candidates
• An AMSC acquisition is highly accretive to MLP/Yieldco buyers at current valuation
• OSG out of Chapter 11
Valuation upside coming from…
All ten AMSC vessels on bareboat charters with OSG
Slide 5
Long term
bareboat charters
50 / 50 profit split
with AMSC
Long term time
charters
• OSG has firm bareboat charters for
all vessels until December 2019 with
evergreen extension options
• OSG time charters the vessels to oil
majors for Jones Act trade
• AMSC receives fixed annual BBC of
USD 88m + 50% of the profits
generated by OSG under the TCs
• Significant upside potential through
an attractive profit sharing agreement
in tight Jones Act market
• OSG recently emerged from Chapter
11 as a financially healthy company
with new shareholders, new Board of
Directors and new management
Lean organisation with highly experienced management team
Slide 6
Annette
Malm
Justad
Chairperson
• Member of AMSC’s Board of Directors since December 2007
• Board member of PGS, Awilco LNG, Store Norske Kulkompani and Small Turbine Partners
• 2006 – 10: CEO of Eitzen Maritime Services ASA
• Previously: Various positions within Yara International ASA, Norgas Carriers/IM Skaugen ASA, and Norsk
Hydro ASA
• Master degree in Technology Management from MIT (Sloan School)/NTH/NHH in addition to a MSc in
Chemical Engineering from NTH
Dag
Fasmer
Wittusen
President
/ CEO
• CEO of AMSC since July 2011
• Previously: Special advisor to Aker ASA and Board Member of AMSC since 2009, in addition to
numerous executive positions within the Aker Group, including CEO of Aker Finans AS, Executive
Director of TH Global (ex Kvaerner PLC), member of various Aker boards, Executive Vice President of
Aker RGI and Managing Director of RGI. Also co-founder of investment banking group Orkla Finans, Vice
President of Eksportfinans and Loan Officer at the World Bank
• BA from Brown University and an MPA from Princeton University
Leigh
Jaros
Business
Controller /
Finance
Manager
• Controller in AMSC from July 2008 and CFO July 2011 – June 2014
• Previously: +10 years of progressively responsible corporate financial experience including financial
reporting, analysis and budgeting. Ms. Jaros was employed by Aker Philadelphia Shipyard as its
Accounting Supervisor prior to joining AMSC.
• BSc in Finance and Economics from West Chester University
• Mr. Magnussen was appointed CFO of AMSC effective 1 June 2014.
• Previously: Director of the Investment Banking Division in DNB Markets where he has worked since
2007. Prior to that he worked for five years as Vice President of Corporate Banking in DNB Bank in New
York, Singapore and Oslo.
• MBA from Columbia University, New York and a Master of Science in International Business from the
Norwegian School of Management, Oslo
Pål
Lothe
Magnussen
CFO
Source: AMSC
The product tanker market is expected to remain tight in the coming years
USDk/day
’20e ’18e ’16e ’14e ’12 ’10 ’08 ’06 ’04 ’02 ’00
Favorable supply/demand dynamics Daily Time Charter Rate Trend for Jones Act Tankers
Source: Navigistics Consulting © as of Aug 2013, Arctic Sec. / Pareto Sec. research Slide 7
Increase in shale oil production
Longer shipping distances
Limited newbuilding capacity
Orderbook includes few open vessels
Shuttle tanker requirement
Surplus refinery capacity in Gulf coast area
Shipping demand is driven by shale oil boom and increased refining in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico
Shale oil and shift of U.S. refining to Gulf Coast increases
demand for Jones Act tanker vessels Seaborne shale oil out of Corpus Christi port, Texas
Shale oil production forecast
Eagle
Ford GoM
Permian
U.S. oil fields
% of crude refinery capacity %
Bakken
19% 28%
10%
Bluewater
Pipeline
Barges
2
0
10
8
6
4
2025 2020 2015 2010 2005 2000
MMbbl/d
Notes: 1) Fleet deployment for U.S. Jones Act product tankers by capacity Source: Port of Corpus Christi, Rystad Energy, EIA
Tanker fleet deployment, April 2014 1)
Military
33%
25%
Crude Oil
7%
Chemicals
West
Coast 6%
Clean US
GoM
29%
Slide 8
+112% increase in production in 2013-22
600
400
200
0
Kbbl/d
Jan-
14
Jul-
13
Jan-
13
Jul-
12
Jan-
12
Jul-
11
Jan-
11
Jun-
14
-3821
-693
5296
-22
406
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
PADD I (EastCoast)
PADD2(Midwest)
PADD3 (GulfCoast)
PADD4 (RockyMountains)
PADD5 (WestCoast)
Kbbls
/Day
Surplus of refinery capacity in Gulf coast area will continue to drive product flows
9
US Petroleum Product demand forecast (EIA)
SURPLUS
DEFICIT
Source: EIA, IEA, Arctic Securities Research
A new trade lane is emerging, driving crude oil from the U.S. Gulf of Mexico to U.S. East Coast
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2013 2014 2011 2012 2015
USD/bbl
Bakken price less LLS price
Brent price less LLS price
LLS more expensive than Brent / Bakken
LLS more economical than Brent / Bakken
Notes: 1) Brent price includes USD 2/bbl for transportation on imports while Bakken and LSS includes USD 15/bbl and USD 4.5/bbl respectively Source: Bloomberg, Plains All American, RBN Energy
It may become economical to
deliver LLS oil directly to the
U.S. East Coast, thereby
creating a significant increase
in Jones Act vessel demand
Price arbitrage between Louisiana Light Sweet oil and Bakken and
Brent oils is creating a new trade pattern
10
Source: Rystad Energy, OSG statement Note (*): Some of these field development may also be served by pipeline
Great White: 8000ft, Shell
Gotcha: 8000ft, Shell
Walker Ridge
Alaminos Canyon
Big Foot: 5000ft, Chevron
Stones: 9500ft, BP
Chinook/ Cascade:
8200ft, Petrobras
Jack: 7000ft, Chevron
Julia: 7000ft, Exxon
Keathley Canyon
Lucius: 7100ft, Anadarko
Producing Development
Discovery
St Malo: 6900ft, Chevron
Shenandoah: 6000ft, Anadarko
Slide 11
U.S. Gulf of Mexico deepwater developments will create significant demand for shuttle tankers
Demand for Jones Act tankers estimated to grow by 22 product tanker equivalents within 2020
12
Tonnage demand growth in US trade (converted to 46,000dwt vessel equivalents)
Source: Arctic Securities Research
2 2 2 31 23 3
34
4
2
4
7 77
77
1
2 22
34
1
13
3
4
4
0
5
10
15
20
25
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
# o
f 46,0
00dw
t vess
el
equiv
ale
nts
Other/Chemicals Product USGC - USEC Crude USGC Crude/Product USWC Shuttle GoM
73 vessels in the product/crude tanker trade today – 14 players – consolidation?
Slide 13
# of Jones Act tanker vessels by owner
Notes: 1) OSG ATB fleet includes 2 lightering vessels, which are illustrated separate ly in OSG’s own fleet reports 2) Including 2x SeaRiver tankers from 1978/79 which are expected to enter service 3) Philly Tankers has two options that come in addition Source: Navigistics Consulting ©, Arctic Sec. / Pareto Sec. research
2
3
Philly Tankers3)
5 5
5
6
4 3
10 2 1)
17 2
Newbuild ATBs (total of 6)
Newbuild tankers (total of 14)
Tankers (total of 31)
ATBs (total of 42)
19
12
10
7
8
7
10
4
4
3 7
1
32)
1
2
2
1 3
Yard capacity is filling up beyond 2018 - limiting supply of new vessels
Delivery schedule of new commercial U.S.Jones Act
vessels from APSI and NASSCO
Source: Navigistics, United States Maritime Administration (MARAD) / IHS / Clarksons
Only NASSCO and Aker Philadelphia Shipyard have
capability to build MR size product tankers at
competitive prices and timetables
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Yard
AKPS-Crowley 4 (H24)
AKPS-Crowley 3 (H23)
AKPS-Crowley 2 (H22)
AKPS-Crowley 1 (H21)
SeaRiver 2 (H20)
Tote Container 2
Vessel
Matson Container 2 (H30)
Matson Container 1 (H29)
Philly Tankers 4 (H28) [option]
Philly Tankers 3 (H27) [option]
Philly Tankers 2 (H26)
Philly Tankers 1 (H25)
Tote Container 1
Seacor 3
Seacor 2
Seacor 1
APT 5
APT 4
APT 3
APT 2
APT 1
Matson Container 5 (H33) [option]
Matson Container 4 (H32) [option]
Matson Container 3 (H31) [option]
Slide 14
OSG time-charter structure – upside potential
Increasing dividend capacity with higher OSG time charter rates (Illustrative)
Slide 16
Note: Assuming 96.5% utilization , estimated 2014 break even rates of USD 50k / day, bareboat revenue including DPO and refinanced debt structure
Profit share
Bare boat
Limited downside and significant upside potential for dividend distribution going forward
Average TC rate for the ten vessels
EB
ITD
A (U
SD
millio
ns)
$0.13 $0.15
$0.17 $0.19
$0.22 $0.26 $0.30
Potential dividend capacity per share per quarter
$0.10
Low cost of capital achieved in an AMSC MLP/Yieldco enables vessel transactions at superior valuations
Cash flows and drop down strategy Company and capital structure post MLP/Yieldco IPO
Slide 17
AMSC Sponsor and ”GP”
IPO fleet
MLP/Yieldco Listed in New York
SPCs Ship owning entities
Public
shareholders
6-7% div yield
51%
100%
49%
2015 IPO 2016 2017 2018
Additional vessels to be
dropped down creating growth
Low leverage
term loan
Low cost of capital
Combination of
cash and equity
proceeds
Public
shareholders
Reduced
outstanding debt
Cash proceeds Growing
dividends
Investment highlight
Slide 18
Unique position in rising market Key AMSC value triggers
• Modern asset base
• Attractive and increasing cash flows
• Strong market fundamentals
• Pure play exposure to Jones Act tankers and to
U.S. tight oil revolution
• Execution of full payout dividend policy
• Refinance current debt with lower cost of capital
and flexible amortization profile
• Launch Yieldco process aiming for a Q2 2015 listing
• OSG out of chapter 11 with new stakeholders
Q&A