ALARO-0 experience in Slovenia
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ALARO-0 experience in Slovenia
Neva Pristov
ARSO
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si04da:• 4 runs per day
00,06,12,18 UTC +54• 4.4 km, linear grid, 180s• 43 vertical levels• 3h coupling with ARPEGE• data assimilation
si09, si09ec:• 4 runs per day +72(60)• 9.5 km, linear grid, 400s• 43 vertical levels• initial and LBC ARPEGE, IFS
The operational ALADIN
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4.4 km data assimilation
B-matrix (downscaled ARPEGE) CANARI surface analysis 3D-Var upper air assimilation, Surface blending step which merges CANARI surface
analysis over land, ARPEGE sea surface analysis and 3D-Var analysis
6-h forecast as first guess (long cut-off ARPEGE LBC),
Digital filter initialization Cycling of hydrometeors, 3MT variables
OPLACE observation + local SYNOP data
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Assimilation suite performance
TemperatureWind speed
RMSE differences between data assimilation and dynamical adaptation
Jan –Apr 2012 12 run
upper air scores mostly neutral, positive in the first few hours of forecast
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Assimilation suite performance
RMSEBIAS
black - data assimilation red - dynamical adaptation
2m Temperature, Jan –Apr 2012 12 run
Improved by data assimilation
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Products for forecasters
output - 1 hour zoom - domain around Slovenia precipitation, simulated radar reflectivity time and vertical cross sections
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1h precipitation
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simulated radar reflectivity
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Cold front
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Cold front
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Few remarks
Wind wind gusts hard to tune for all situations
2m temperature weakness, daily cycle
Low cloudiness Precipitation, Convection
improving advection of convection with general flow?
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Wind gusts
Tuning of FACRAF
Red -observations
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Wind from LAEF
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2m temperature
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2m temperature
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Low cloudiness, 2m temperature
November 2011
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Low cloudiness, 2m temperature
November 2011 2m temperature Ljubljana
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Low cloudiness, 2m temperature
November 2011 2m temperature Novo Mesto
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Low cloudiness, 2m temperature
November 2011 2m temperature at 12 UTC Ljubljana
red – ECMFF blue – si04da difference to 10 deg.
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Low cloudiness
levels 43 4.4 km levels 70
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Low cloudiness
levels 43 4.4 km levels 70
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Extreme precipitation
ALADIN 2007 9.5 km
September 2007
24h precipitation
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Extreme precipitation
ALADIN 2009 9.5 km
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Extreme precipitation
ALADIN 2010 4.4 km
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Extreme precipitation
ALADIN 2011 4.4 km DA
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Applications using ALADIN data
INCA analysis and nowcasting system
BOBER hydrological forecast for Sava, Soča and Mura river catchment
NAPOM – 3D sigma-coordinate ocean model set up in Northern Adriatic
CAMx photochemical dispersion model