Advanced Analytics for High Tech Manufacturing · PDF fileAdvanced Analytics for High Tech...

Mike Alperin

Industry Consultant

7/14/2016

Advanced Analytics for High Tech Manufacturing:

Process Control Systems

© Copyright 2000-2016 TIBCO Software Inc.

Agenda

Tibco Analytics

History and Theory

Basic Capabilities

Demos

Predictive Models

Alerting


• Integration• Business Process Management• API Management

• Data Visualization & Dashboards• Advanced Analytics• Streaming Analytics

Visualizing Data in Spotfire

Analytics Spectrum

Spotfire in Manufacturing


Selected Spotfire Manufacturing Customers

Supply

Chain

• Demand Forecasting• Order Management• Inventory

Optimization• Supplier

Performance• Transportation

Analytics• Early Warning

Systems

Manufacturing

Operations

• Real-time Equipment & Process Monitor

• Process Capability• Optimize

Maintenance• OEE & Factory

Productivity

Field Service &

Support

• Optimize Maintenance

• Repair & Customer Service Analytics

• Supplier Performance

• Order Management• Inventory

Optimization• Transportation

Analytics

Product Quality &

Reliability

• Real-time Quality Monitor

• Root Cause• Reliability• Warranty

Sales &

Marketing

• Customer Needs

Product Requirements

• Market Segmentation

• Propensity• many others

Manufacturing Use Cases


History and Theory



• Control Chart developed by Walter Shewhart at Bell Labs in 1924

• Adopted by Japanese industry after WWII. ‘Quality Revolution’

makes it back to US in 1980s – Toyota, Ford, Motorola

• Statistical methods used to monitor and control a process

• Ensures that the process operates at its full potential.

Statistical Process Control

• Make as much good stuff as possible with a minimum of bad stuff

• SPC can be applied to any process where output can be measured:• Manufacturing

• Marketing & Sales

• Medical / Healthcare

• Services, etc.

Walter Shewhart’s first Control Chart

Western Electric Candlestick phone

Voice of the ProcessAssess temporal variability

Key Metric: Instability Index = St = % out-of-control data points

Voice of the CustomerCompare actual distribution to Spec Limits

Key Metric: Process Capability Index = Cpk= (mean – closer spec limit) / 3 Sigma

ASTM International

Process Control vs. Process Capability

Control Limits


The Normal Distribution


Western Electric RulesProbability

0.3 %

1 %

1 %

Basic Capabilities


X-bar R Control Charts with Limits and Rules set-upX-bar R Control Charts with Limits and Rules set-up

• Solution Areas

• Assess Process Capability

• Process Control: Detect changes from baseline

• Root Cause Analysis

• Alerting

Process Capability & Control


• Capabilities

• High Level Summary

• Spec Limits

• Trend Charts

• Visualize Distributions

Process Capability


Process Capability Summary with drill-downProcess Capability Summary with drill-down

Summary with drill-down to Control ChartsSummary with drill-down to Control Charts


Process Control

• Capabilities

• Shewhart charts: Xbar-R, Individual-Moving Range, EWMA, Cusum

• Control Limits: Setting & Storing

• Western Electric or Nelson rules

• Advanced: multivariate, Predictive models

Interactive Limit Setting on Individuals Control ChartsInteractive Limit Setting on Individuals Control Charts


Process Control

• Capabilities





Limits Set-up for Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Control Charts. Limits Set-up for Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Control Charts.


Process Control

• Capabilities






Root Cause Analysis

• Investigate problem cause

• No single method or analysis technique

• Develop specific workflow most relevant for each industry / use case / company / etc.

• Capabilities

• Basic drill-down to visualizations

• Classic Statistics: Correlation, ANOVA, Regression, etc.

Equipment Commonality Analysis - ANOVAEquipment Commonality Analysis - ANOVA


Root Cause Analysis

Root Cause - Machine Learning (GBM) – Advanced Root Cause AnalysisRoot Cause - Machine Learning (GBM) – Advanced Root Cause Analysis

• Investigate problem cause

• No single method or analysis technique

• Develop specific workflow most relevant for each industry / use case / company / etc.

• Capabilities

• Basic drill-down to visualizations

• Classic Statistics: Correlation, ANOVA, Regression, etc.

• Machine Learning

Demos


Customer Case Study


© Copyright 2000-2013 TIBCO Software Inc. 24

Electronic Test Equipment Calibration:

Discovery, Trouble-shooting, Resolution:Tens of Service Centers– 100s of calibrations– 1000s of tests– 100,000s of measurement points


Daily email summary: highlights two issues:

Drill-down on first issue yields 3 observations:1. Variation > Measurement uncertainty significant issue

2. Not related to calibration software version3. Smaller prior variations have been seen previously

Discovery + 2 min Discovery + 2 min


Discovery + 10 min


Discovery + 15 min

Advanced & Predictive Models


Automotive Warranty Early Warning System

Business Problem

• Major Automotive Manufacturer

• Costs of producing unreliable product

TIBCO Solution

• Rapidly detect and respond to warranty problems

• For every component: Model Fail rate

• Use model to predict Field Fail rates

• Alert when Field Fail rates exceed predictions

Model: Fail rate = f(production date, days in service, model)

Control Chart

showing actual and

predicted fail rates

for a component

Yield Differences between Batches with varying Sample Sizes

Problem

• Batch Sample Sizes Vary

TIBCO Solution

• Funnel Plot to identify outlier batches with abnormally high yield loss

• Trend yield data


Alerting: Scheduled to Real-time


REAL-TIME ANALYSIS BATCH ANALYSIS

PROCESS ZONE STRATEGICTACTICALOPERATIONSEXECUTION

TIME INCREMENT

IMPORTANCE OF AUTOMATION

Quarters/Years

Months/Quarters

Hours/Days/Weeks

Seconds / Minutes

Not ImportantImportantNecessary

Analytics Time Scales

Automated Scheduled Alerting System for Control Charts. Automated Scheduled Alerting System for Control Charts.


Scheduled Alerting

• Capabilities

• Scheduled Alerting using Spotfire Automation Services


Scheduled Alerting – Rule and Alert Configuration

Scheduled Alerting – TERR enables advanced rules

Rule Breaches above are calculated with a TERR data function

This simple chart actually drives the alerting

Solar Cell Manufacturing

Business Problem

• Solar Cell Manufacturer – 600K Wafers / day

• Immediately Troubleshoot Process when producing bad product

TIBCO Solution

• Real-time Monitoring of Equipment and Product critical metrics:

• temperature, pressure, resistivity

• Alert when metrics beyond limits

• Root Cause Analysis to improve process

Results• Improved solar cell efficiencies

• Reduced equipment downtime


“For every 1% increase in shipped product, we make $11MM in profit. The demand is there, we just need to fulfill it.”

- Head of Quality, Solar Panel Manufacturer

“For every 1% increase in shipped product, we make $11MM in profit. The demand is there, we just need to fulfill it.”

- Head of Quality, Solar Panel Manufacturer

Real-time Operational Visibility & Alerts: Tibco Solution

(E-mail) Alert

Drill-down

Real-time Monitor

Diagnostic Analysis

• Real-time operational visibility - Detect problems in a timely manner• Automated Alerts for Critical Equipment & Product Alarms

Streambase Workflow

Remote Monitoring of Pumps

• Continuous data (sensors)

• Electrical parameters

• Downhole pressures and

temperatures

• Surface pressures

• ~10 values / pump / minute

• Parameters constantly

monitored

• Prevent failures (extend equipment

life)

• Enhance production (keep systems

running)

Transformer

ESP Controller

Well head sensors

P

P P

Controller

VSD

RTURTU

Remote Terminal Unit

Antenna

Spotfire steps

1. Navigate to wells w issues; focus on best time range

2. Filter to get best data

3. Mark the event for detailed analysis

4. Highlight leading indicator zone

5. Calculate features to define anomaly

6. Incorporate any required cleaning

7. Calculate control limits on reference set of wells

8. Modify limits, time zones and backtest rules/limits on data history

Develop rules for real-time monitoring


Calculate Limits & Deploy Real-time Alerts

4. Calculate limits on reference set, backtest and deploy

Streambase steps

1. Read data

• PI

• ODS (Oracle)

2. Data Cleaning

3. Feature calculation

• Leading indicators

4. Test results against rules

and thresholds

5. Send notifications

• Spotfire automation

Action on Data in Motion – Streambase Analytics

Event Flow

Drill-down to Root Cause Analysis

Notifications and Alerts

Examples of Notifications & Alerts


Dashboards

E-mail

Mobile Devices

Value Creation

• Extend Equipment Life / Increase Production

• ESP install approximately $200,000

• 10% improvement in ESP runtime =

$100+ MM/yr on collection of 2000 pumps

• Spread organizational best practices digitally

• SME into digital form

• Standardizing operational practices

• Bad actor identification

• Data cleaning and feature development

• Central to problem

• Feeds other systems

Q & A


Thank you!

Mike Alperin

Manufacturing Industry Consultant

[email protected]

+1(603)-315-4340

First to Insight, First to Action

mailto:[email protected]

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