‘Adapting the Blues’Sir Denis O’Connor CBE QPMHer Majesty’s Chief Inspector of Constabulary

4th July 2011

4th International Evidence Based Policing Conference

What lies beneath….Tangled up in blue

“Her folks they said our lives together

Sure was gonna be rough…

Lord knows I’ve paid some dues

getting through

Tangled up in blue.”Bob Dylan

Policing is intrinsically adaptive

A simple shop-lifting call ……could turn out to bea child protection case

Adaptation … lessons from nature

Our Noble Mission

What lies beneath….

“The wicked flee when no man pursueth…”

 Proverbs 28:1

What lies beneath….Some questions for you….

Please tick one or more of the following:

Is your research geared to:

Generational austerity?

Garnering the political will to make the necessary hard choices?

Being able to inform the ‘better for less’ requirement of police leadership?

What lies beneath….The case of the peppered moth

“The significance of an adaptation can only be understood in relation

to the total biology of the species”

J. S. Huxley

What lies beneath….‘Outside in’…

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Crim

es p

er 1

,000

pop

ulati

on

Change in USA crime versus comparable recorded crime in England and Wales

USA (murder, rape, robbery, agg. assualt, burglary, theft and motor theft)

E & W (murder, rape, robbery, more serious wounding, burglary, theft from vehicle, theft from person, vehicle theft)

Source: Uniformed Crime Reporting StatisticsHome office recorded crime

What lies beneath….US / England & Wales Crime trends 1981 – 2011

Since 1997 crime spending has increased and overall crime has been reduced by 32% yet confidence in the government to stop crime is low.

When Mori asked respondents, only 20% were willing to accept crime overall is actually declining

Source: IPSOS MORI - ‘Closing the Gaps: Crime and Public Perceptions’.

The “Reassurance Gap”

What lies beneath….ASB has not gone away

What lies beneath….The real story of adaptation

The big changes depended on:

• Explanation (research)

• Operationalising (police leadership)

• Promotion (politicians)

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

Crim

e (m

)

Year

Comparison of recorded crime and BCS crime

All BCS crime

Total recorded crime19.3m

9.6m

5.1m4.3m

• BCS reductions flattening

• Forces already declaring crime rises

1995 – 2010 BCS and recorded crime

Crime can go up as well as down

“Once in a while a door opens, and lets the future in”Graham Greene

The changing police / security paradigm

Peaceful protestor

criminal activityor

BOTH?

Adapting to Protest

What lies beneath….Austerity bites

5 - 10% ….

10 - 20% ….

20% +….

What lies beneath….Disruption and change

Florida brush fire

Leadership in a Policing revolution

Simultaneous policing revolution in

Accountability

Funding

National Institutions

City Hot SpotsCourtesy of Lawrence W. Sherman

What lies beneath….

“…believing as I do that man in the distant future will be a far more perfect creature than he now is.”

Charles Darwin

DNA

What lies beneath….A hardy hybrid

Striata Hybrids Bletilla

What lies beneath….

“The wicked flee whenno man pursueth;

but the righteous are as bold as a lion”

 Proverbs 28:1

Any Questions?

Sir Denis O’Connor CBE QPMHer Majesty’s Chief Inspector of Constabulary

4th July 2011

4th International Evidence Based Policing Conference