Adam Hardy NEN2015
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Transcript of Adam Hardy NEN2015
The UK Business Population – the story so far …
Adam Hardy November 2015
2
My role• Analyst in Enterprise Directorate of BIS• Focus on evidence relating to small businesses
and enterprise – compile statistics and undertake research to understand business environment and key issues for small firms
• Support policy makers in making evidenced based decisions and evaluate impact of existing and potential policy options
3
Overview• Why Small Businesses are important• What’s happened to the Business Population
since the recession• Self Employment – Recent trends and their
characteristics• The Future?
4
Small firms contribution to economy...Share of businesses in the UK private sector and their associated employment and turnover, by size of business, start of 2015.
99.3%
0.6% 0.1%
48.0%
12.3%
39.7%32.8%
14.5%
52.7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0-49 employees 50-249 employees 250 and over employees
Businesses
Employment
Turnover
Source: BIS Population Estimates for the UK and Regions 2015
5
Number of SMEs by employee size-band, 2012
• Over 4 million private sector businesses have no employees.• 1.07 million have 1-9 employees • 204,000 have 10-49 employees, and • 33,000 have 50-249 employees.
…but most small businesses do not employ anybody…
4.08
1.07
0.200.03
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
0 1-9 10-49 50-249
Mill
ions
Employee size-band
Source: BIS Population Estimates for the UK and Regions 2015
6
Despite a large fall in GDP, the business population has continued to grow both during and since the recession….Change in GDP and UK private sector business population Q1 2008 – Q3 2015
106.4
125.8
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
125.0
130.0
Q1 08
Q2 08
Q3 08
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q3 15
Inde
x (Q
1 20
08 =
100
)
.
GDPUK private sector businesses (Q1 2008 = 100)
Source: BIS Business Population Estimates 2015 and ONS GDP ABMI Q3 2015
RECESSION
7
The recent increase is part of a longer term trend...
Number of private sector businesses in the UK, start of 2000 – start of 2015
3.5 3.5 3.6 3.73.9 3.9
4.1 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.64.8 4.9
5.2 5.4
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
mill
ions
Source: BIS Business Population Estimates for the UK and Regions 2015
8
...but growth not experienced amongst businesses of all sizes...
Change in number of private sector businesses in the UK by employee size band, indexed
173
118
97
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Bas
e ye
ar 2
000=
100
Zero employee businesses 1-249 (SME employers) 250+ (large) *
Source: BIS Business Population Estimates for the UK and Regions 2015
9
Self Employment - Overall trends • Self-employment increasing in long term – up by over 1.3m
since start of 2000• Strong growth since recession – increase of 675k since
start of 2008• Now stands at 4.6m • Self-employed now represent about 15% of all employment• Strong driver of recent employment growth – accounting
for nearly half of the rise in total employment since the recession.
• Recent high growth mainly a result of fewer people leaving self employment.
10
Self employment in the UK has been going up since 2000…
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,00019
8419
8519
8619
8719
8819
8919
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
14
Thou
sand
s
Source: ONS Labour Force Survey, four quarter average
11
…particularly amongst the longer term self-employed
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Inde
x (2
008
= 1)
5 or more years
Total
less than 1 year
1 to < 5 years
Source: BIS ED analysis of non-seasonally adjusted ONS Labour Force Survey, average four quarter data
12
Age • Self-employed workers tend to be older than employees• 43% of the self-employed are aged 50+ and just 11% aged
under 30– This compares with 27% of paid employees who are
aged 50+ and 26% who are under 30• The number of self-employed aged over 65 has gone up by
80% in last 5 years– Numbers of paid employees aged 65+ has also gone
up, but by a more modest third
13
** Data from LFS 2014 Q2 using 2014 weights
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
16-19yrs 20-24yrs 25-29yrs 30-34yrs 35-39yrs 40-44yrs 45-49yrs 50-54yrs 55-59yrs 60-64yrs 65-69yrs 70 andover
Self-employed contribute proportionately more to employment in higher age brackets
% who are self-employed % who are employees Percentage of employment due to self-employed
14
Gender • There are 1.45 million self-employed women - this is 32% of total self-employment• The number of self-employed women has increased faster - they account for half of
growth from 2009 to 2014
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
Male Female
Inde
x (B
asis:
200
8 =
1)
Source: BIS ED analysis of ONS Labour Force Survey, March-May quarters
15
Sectors, occupations and skills• Over a quarter of all people who are self-employed are in skilled trade
occupations• Nearly 60% of the rise during last 5 years has come in higher skilled
managerial, professional and associate professional jobs• But still a lot of builders - despite recent fall in share, 20% of self-
employed people are in construction. Lots of taxi drivers too. • Skills profile of self-employed not that different from employees
16
The self-employed tend to work in higher-skilled occupations
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Managers andSenior Officials
Professionaloccupations
AssociateProfessional and
Technical
Administrativeand Secretarial
Skilled TradesOccupations
Caring, LeisureAnd Other
ServiceOccupations
Sales andCustomer Service
Occupations
Process, Plantand MachineOperatives
ElementaryOccupations
Occupations of employees and self-employed in 2014
% of employees % of self-employed
** Data from LFS Q2 2014 using 2014 weights
17
Managers, Di-rectors And
Senior Officials
Professional Occupations
Associate Pro-fessional And Technical Oc-
cupations
Administrative And Secretarial
Occupations
Skilled Trades Occupations
Caring, Leisure And Other
Service Occu-pations
Sales And Cus-tomer Service Occupations
Process, Plant And Machine
Operatives
Elementary Occupations
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35Share of total amount of change in self-employment between 2009
and 2014 by type of occupation
Source: ONS, Self-employed workers in the UK, 2014; Published in August 2014
18
Self-employed and employees show similar proportions of qualifications and years of schooling
** Data from LFS Q2 2014 using 2014 weights
19
Are people content with being self-employed?
• Only 5% of self-employed are looking for a different or additional job – compared to 8% of employees
• 4.5% of part-time self employed want to work full time – similar to employees (5%)
• A bigger share of the self-employed work longer hours than employees, but also a bigger share work shorter hours
• Self-employed females tend to work shorter hours than self-employed males
• RSA research suggested that people choose self-employment for a variety of reasons, including greater freedom, and more meaning and control in their work
20
2006 2008 2010 2012 20140%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
UK employees look for jobs at higher rates than the self-employed
Self-employed Employees
% o
f em
ploy
ees
and
self-
empl
oyed
look
ing
for a
job
**Data from LFS Q2 using 2014 weights
Proportion of employees/self employed looking for work – new or additional job
21
People choose self-employment to have more freedom
22
Geography
• The spread of self-employment around the country is not wholly in proportion to the working population
– Self-employment accounts for a substantially higher proportion of employment in London (19%) and this pulls up the average
– South-East, South-West and Eastern regions are also above average
– But other English regions are below average, with the North East the lowest at 11%
23
Some variation in self-employment rates around the country
24
Back to the future? • What is likely to happen? - More of the same – people enter self employment because they want to and are happy to remain
• What we know less about- Earnings, Pensions and Maternity (Deane Review)- What we are doing to bridge gaps
• Any Questions?