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สถานการณ์การลงทุนในอนุภูมิภาคลุ่มแม่น ้าโขงภายใต้กรอบนโยบายการลงทุนเพื่อการพัฒนาที่ยั่งยืน (Investment Policy Framework

for Sustainable Development) ของ UNCTAD

การลงทุนเพือ่การพฒันาที่ยั่งยืนในอนภุูมิภาคแม่น ้าโขง


Growth and FDI in GMS (I): Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar and Vietnam


Growth and FDI in GMS (II): Thailand and China


Growth and FDI in GMS (I): Is FDI Really Important?

No Information


Growth and FDI in GMS (II): Is FDI Really Important?


Sources of Funds of Selected GMS Countries

งบประมาณ49%

เงินกู้ภาครัฐ7%

บริษัทจดทะเบียนใน

HOSE, HNX3%

ธนาคารพาณิชย์และ

ธนาคารเฉพาะกิจ

24%

FDI10%

ODAs7%


เงินกู้ภาครัฐ8%สถาบันการเงิน

ของรัฐ1%

บริษัทจดทะเบียน

2%

ธนาคารพาณิชย์10%

FDI10%

ODAs8%



บริษัทจดทะเบียน

1%

ธนาคารพาณิชย์และธนาคารเฉพาะกิจ

26%

Microfinance 9%

FDI19%

ODAs12% งบประมาณ

22%


บริษัทจดทะเบียนใน ตลท.

4%


FDI22%

ODAs19%

GDP Growth 2015 7.0% 6.7% 7.2% 6.7% 2.8%GNI per capita 2015 (USD)

1,070 1,740 1,160 1,990 5,720

MYANMARLAOSCAMBODIAVIETNAM

VIETNAMMYANMAR

LAOSCAMBODIA

THAILAND



สถาบันการเงินของรัฐ

6%

บริษัทจดทะเบียนใน

ตลท.11%


FDI10%

ODAs0.0024%

THAILAND


Economic Structure of GMS (I): Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar and Vietnam


Economic Structure of GMS (II): Thailand and China


Why Sustainable Development?

2Source: World Bank

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

0

1E+09

2E+09

3E+09

4E+09

5E+09

6E+09

7E+09

8E+09

19

60

19

64

19

68

19

72

19

76

19

80

19

84

19

88

19

92

19

96

20

00

20

04

20

08

20

12

World Population

World Population Thailand Population

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

19

60

19

64

19

68

19

72

19

76

19

80

19

84

19

88

19

92

19

96

20

00

20

04

20

08

20

12

CO2 Emission (kton)

World CO2 Emission Thailand CO2 Emission

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

19

60

19

63

19

66

19

69

19

72

19

75

19

78

19

81

19

84

19

87

19

90

19

93

19

96

19

99

20

02

20

05

20

08

20

11

20

14

World Forest (% of Land Area)

World Forest Thailand Forest

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

19

60

19

63

19

66

19

69

19

72

19

75

19

78

19

81

19

84

19

87

19

90

19

93

19

96

19

99

20

02

20

05

20

08

20

11

20

14

World Electricity Consumption per Capita (kWh per capita)

World Electricity Consumption per CapitaThailand Electricity Consumption per Capita


Sustainable Development Goals: SDGs

10


Level of Sustainable Development of GMS Countries

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

Cambodia Lao PDR Myanmar Vietnam Thailand China

SDG Index 2017

#55#68

#71

#106

#109#111

Source: SDG Index and Dashboards Report 2017, based on 150 countries and arithmetic average


Investment Issues : Trade off

Investment Attractiveness VS.

Sustainability

The host countries need FDI to generate growth, but their sustainability’s effect likely to incur more costs to investors


Investment Issues: Type of Investment Policy (I)

Investment Liberalization: Opening up to foreign investments and investors• National treatment• Most-favored-nation (MFN)• Right-of-establishment• Foreign ownership• Performance requirements

Investment Protection: Protect to all investors and investments • Conditions for expropriation and nationalization• Transfer of funds• Repatriation of capital and income (profits and dividends)• Safeguard• Full protection and security• Treatment of compensation for losses• Dispute resolution and settlement


Investment Promotion: Create attractive environment to promote investment• Tax incentives for targeted industries• Tariff exemptions for targeted industries• Special economic zones• Access to credits

Investment Facilitation: Make investment easier with lower risk• Transparent, consistent and predictable policies• Integrated investment policies• Streamlined and simplified investment procedures• Regularly update on information, rules and regulations

Investment Issues: Type of Investment Policy (II)


Scope of Today Discussion

GMS minus China Compared to ASEAN as a Whole

VS.


The Rise of New Generation of Investment Policies2000 2015


IPFSD’s National Investment Policy Guidelines

Core Principles“Design criteria for investment strategies,

policies and treaties”National Investment

Policy GuidelinesIIA Guidance: Policy

OptionsAction Menu: Promotion

Investment in Sustainable Development

Concrete guidance on how to formulate investment policies and regulations and on how to ensure their effectiveness

Framework and toolkit for designing and negotiating international investment treaties

Strategic initiatives to mobilize funds and channel investment towards sectors key for sustainable development prospects

Source: UNCTAD (2015)

Core Principles- Policy Coherence- Public Governance &

Institutions- Dynamic Policy making- Balanced Rights &

Obligations- Right to Regulate- Openness to Investment- Investment Protection &

Treatment- Investment Promotion &

Facilitation- Corporate Governance &

Responsibility- International Cooperation


UNCTAD’s the Investment Policy Framework for Sustainable Development (IPFSD)

FROM PLANNING TO EVALUATION

National Investment Policy Guidelines

Pillar I: Investment & Sustainable

Development Policy

Pillar II: Investment Regulation & Promotion

Pillar III: Investment-Related

Policy Areas

Pillar IV: Investment Policy

Effectiveness

Integrate investment policy in sustainable

development strategy to focus on capacity building

and competitiveness

Design investment policy regarding liberalization,

protection, promotion and facilitation including investor

responsibilities

Ensure coherence w/ other policy areas: trade, taxation, IP, competition, labor, land access, corporate responsibility & governance, environment, infrastructure & PPPs

Build capacity for investment policy

implementation and measure investment policy effectiveness



IPFSD’s International Investment Agreements: IIA Guidance - Policy Options

Post-Establishment

Pre- Establishment

Special and Differential Treatment

Preamble

Treaty Scope

Admission

Standard of Treatment & Protection

Public Policy & National Security

Exceptions

Dispute Settlement

Investor Obligations & Responsibilities

Relationship to Other Agreements

Not Lowering of Standard Clause

Investment Promotion

Institutional Set-up

Final Provisions

Most Investor Friendly

Most Host

Country Friendly

Most Sustainable

Determine whether an existing international investment agreement supports sustainable development

Determine current policy options and their implications

Negotiate for sustainable

development friendly agreement

Explore options for parties with different

capacity



GMS countries’ investment policies and IPFSD: National Investment Policy Guidelines

- Strategic investment policy priorities- Investment policy coherence for

productive capacity building

Make an assessment for investment policies on 4 Pillars and 18 Subsections

- Trade- Tax- Intellectual property- Competition- Labor market- Access to land- Corporate responsibility

and governance- Environment- Infrastructure & PPPs

- Public governance & institutions

- Dynamic policy and development

- Measuring investment policy effectiveness


- Entry, establishment and operation of foreign investors

- Treatment and protection of investors

- Investor obligations- Promotion and facilitation of

investment

GMS Countries

I. Investment and

Sustainable Development

Strategy

II. Investment Regulation

and Promotion

III. Investment –

Related Policy Areas

IV. Investment

Policy Effectiveness


GMS countries’ investment policies and IPFSD: Methodology (I)

I. Use IPFSD National

Guidelines

Review investment policy, development plans and related policies of all ASEAN member countries

Review related studies and reports

Search for relevant secondary and indices

II. Find Indicators, Proxies

III. Set Criteria

IV. Estimate Score for each country

V. Provide Policy Recommendations

4 Pillars 18 Subsections

For each pillar, set criteria to measure the consistency between individual country’s policies and IPFSD

Apply the criteria to estimate score for each country

With the results from national and regional analysis, provide policy recommendations


GMS countries’ investment policies and IPFSD: Methodology (II)

1 2 3 4

LEVEL

UNCTAD’SIPFSD Goals

GMSCountries’Investment

PoliciesNone or Very Low

Level

Low Level

MediumLevel

Strength = Equal or better than ASEAN AverageChallenge = Lower than ASEAN Average


Example (I)


Example (II)


Example (I)


Country Assessment: Cambodia

2.50

2.50

2.56

2.00

2.86

2.19

2.74

2.430.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.00

Cambodia

ASEAN

Sustainable level

I. Investment and Sustainable

Development Strategy

II. Investment Regulation and

Promotion

III. Investment – Related Policy

Areas

IV. Investment Policy

Effectiveness

Strengths:- Have decent investment policy,

especially for investor obligations.

Challenges:- Work to integrate investment

policy to sustainable development strategy for productive capacity building.

- Provide better investment-friendly policies in corporate responsibility and governance and environment.

- Emphasize on policy effectiveness via improving public governance and institutions.


Country Assessment: Lao PDR




Promotion


Areas


Effectiveness

2.13

1.75

2.33

1.67

2.86

2.19

2.74

2.430.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.00 Laos

ASEAN

Sustainable level

Strengths:- Have a rather balanced

development in all areas.

Challenges:- Concentrate on an integration of

investment policy in sustainable development strategy, especially for capacity building.

- Improve investment regulation and promotion policy in all areas

- Upgrade investment-related policies in corporate responsibility and governance and environment.

- Strengthen policy effectiveness through better public governance and institutions and more dynamic policy development.


Country Assessment: Myanmar




Promotion


Areas


Effectiveness

1.63

1.00

2.00

2.00

2.86

2.19

2.74

2.430.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.00

Myanmar

ASEAN

Sustainable level

Strengths:- Have tremendous potential after

economic liberalization.

Challenges:- Need to incorporate investment

to sustainable development strategy for capacity building.

- Work on more investment regulation and promotion in all areas.

- Provide more friendly environment for investment, especially for access to land, corporate responsibility, environment and PPPs.

- Have satisfactory measurement of investment policy effectiveness but can still improve on dynamic development of policy.


Country Assessment: Thailand




Promotion


Areas


Effectiveness

3.50

1.75

3.28

3.17

2.86

2.19

2.74

2.43 0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.00

ThailandASEANSustainable level

Strengths:- Highly incorporate investment

policy to sustainable development strategy.

- Grant good supporting policies in all areas.

- Already adopt a system of investment policy effectiveness.

Challenges:- Improve investment regulation

and promotion in liberalization and investor obligations.


Country Assessment: Vietnam




Promotion


Areas


Effectiveness

3.25

2.50

2.83

2.50

2.86

2.19

2.74

2.430.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.00

VietnamASEAN AverageSustainable score

Strengths:- Highly integrate investment

policy to sustainable development plan

- Provide decent investment and promotion policies in investment obligations, promotion and facilitation.

- Have strong investment related policy in trade, tax, intellectual property, competition, labor market and PPPs.

- Implement an assessment of investment policy effectiveness.

Challenges:- Continue to improve all areas

evenly.


STR

ENG

THW

EAK

NES

S

LEVEL of POLICY DEVELOPMENT

- Decent investment policy in promotion, liberalization and facilitation in some countries.

- Opportunity to learn from other countries

- Investment policy realignment- Lack of competitiveness

improvement policy- Improvement in supporting

policies- Transparency and investment

policy assessment

- Investment and development policy alignment

- Good investment policy in some areas.

- Good supporting policy in some areas

- Regular investment policy assessment.

- Competiveness policy improvement.

- Continuous investment and supporting policy improvement

- Investment and development policy alignment with decent competitiveness policy

- Better investment policy in most areas

- Better supporting policy in most areas

- Regular investment policy assessment.

- Remaining specific issues for further improvement.

Track I:

Track II:

Track III:

POLICY ANALYSIS: INVESTMENT POLICY PERSPECTIVE


SECTION A

Article 1 Objective

Article 2 Guiding Principles

Article 3 Scope of Application

Article 4 Definitions

Article 5 National Treatment

Article 6 Most-Favoured-Nation Treatment

Article 7 Prohibition of Performance Requirements

Article 8 Senior Management and Board of Directors

Article 9 Reservations

Article 10 Modification of Commitments

Article 11 Treatment of Investment

Article 12 Compensation in Cases of Strife

Article 13 Transfers

Article 14 Expropriation and Compensation

Article 15 Subrogation

Article 16 Measures to Safeguard the Balance-of-Payments

Article 17 General Exceptions

Article 18 Security Exceptions

Article 19 Denial of Benefits

Article 20 Special Formalities and Disclosure of Information

Article 21 Transparency

Article 22 Entry, Temporary Stay and Work of Investors and Key Personnel

Article 23 Special and Differential Treatment for the Newer ASEAN Member States

Article 24 Promotion of Investment

Article 25 Facilitation of Investment

Article 26 Enhancing ASEAN Integration

Article 27 Disputes Between or Among Member States

SECTION B Investment Dispute Between an Investor and a Member State


Article 29 Scope of Coverage

Article 30 Conciliation

Article 31 Consultations

Article 32 Claim by an Investor of a Member State

Article 33 Submission of a Claim

Article 34 Conditions and Limitations on Submission of a Claim

Article 35 Selection of Arbitrators

Article 36 Conduct of the Arbitration

Article 37 Consolidation

Article 38 Expert Reports

Article 39 Transparency of Arbitral Proceedings

Article 40 Governing Law

Article 41 Awards

SECTION C

Article 42 Institutional Arrangements

Article 43 Consultations by Member States

Article 44 Relation to Other Agreements

Article 45 Annexes, Schedule and Future Instruments

Article 46 Amendments

Article 47 Transitional Arrangements Relating to the ASEAN IGA and the AIA

Article 48 Entry into Force

Article 49 Depositary

ANNEX 1 Approval in Writing

ANNEX 2 expropriation and compensation

Overview of ACIA

33


Methodology (II)

34


Example (I)


IPFSD Sections and

SubsectionsRelevant Articles of ACIA

Level of

SD

1 PreambleArticle 1 Objective

Article 2 Guiding Principles1

2 Treaty scope

2.1 Definition of investment Article 4 Definitions 4

2.2 Definition of investorArticle 4 Definitions

Article 19 Denial of Benefits4

2.3 Exclusions from the scopeArticle 2 Guiding Principles

Article 3 Scope of Application2

2.4 Temporal scopeArticle 1 Objective

Article 3 Scope of Application1

3 Admission Article 4 Definitions 4

4 Standards of treatment and

protection

4.1 National treatment (NT)

Article 3 Scope of Application

Article 5 National Treatment

Article 9 Reservations

3

4.2 Most-favoured nation (MFN)Article 3 Scope of Application

Article 6 Most-Favoured-Nation Treatment3

4.3 Fair and equitable treatment

(FET)Article 11 Treatment of Investment 3

4.4 Full protection and security

(FPS)Article 11 Treatment of Investment 2

4.5 Expropriation

Article 1 Objective

Article 13 Transfers

Article 14 Expropriation and Compensation

4

4.6 Protection from strife Article 12 Compensation in Cases of Strife 1

4.7 Transfer of funds Article 13 Transfers 4

4.8 Transparency Article 21 Transparency 4

4.9 Performance requirementsArticle 7 Prohibition of Performance

Requirements2

4.10 “Umbrella” clause No clause 4

4.11 Personnel and staffingArticle 22 Entry, Temporary Stay and

Work of Investors and Key Personnel2

IPFSD Sections and

SubsectionsRelevant Articles of ACIA

Level of

SD

5 Public policy and national

security exceptions

5.1 Public policy exceptions Article 17 General Exceptions 3

5.2 National security exceptions

Article 16 Measures to Safeguard the

Balance-of-Payments

Article 18 Security Exceptions

3

6 Dispute settlement

6.1 State-State Article 30 Conciliation 3

6.2 Investor-State: Scope and

conditions of accessArticle 29 Scope of Coverage 2

6.3 Investor-State: Procedural

issues

Article 33 Submission of a Claim

Article 35 Selection of Arbitrators

Article 36 Conduct of the Arbitration

Article 38 Expert Reports

Article 40 Governing Law

4

6.4 Other options for investment

dispute settlementArticle 30 Conciliation 4

6.5 Remedies and compensation Article 41 Awards 4

7 Investor obligations and

responsibilities


Article 19 Denial of Benefits2

8 Relationship to other

agreements

Article 44 Relation to Other

Agreements3

9 Not lowering of standards

clauseNo clause 2

10 Investment promotion

Article 25 Facilitation of Investment

Article 26 Enhancing ASEAN

Integration

3

11 Institutional set-up

Article 23 Special and Differential

Treatment for the Newer ASEAN

Member States

Article 42 Institutional Arrangements

4

12 Final provisions No clause 1

ACIA Assessment (I)


ACIA Assessment (II)


Policy Recommendations

• The investment policy for sustainable development must take into account the economic structure of each individual country.

• The cooperation among GMS nations to pursue sustainable development depends largely on mutual benefits. We should start working with the countries of the same interest and expand the circle.

• GMS must shows commitments for new investment policy through its laws and regulations, international agreements and the participation of their people in monitoring the use of this new policy.

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