A RISEN CHINA - NSCS · The Of Distance tirnes are in parentheses. CHINA 1,900 miles Perth RUSSIA...

A RISEN CHINA & GEOPOLITICS

IN EAST ASIA

Evelyn Goh

Australian National University

18 July 2017

OUTLINE

1. China has risen

2. The return of geopolitics

3. Geopolitical connectivity

4. China’s effect on East Asia’s geopolitics

1. CHINA HAS RISEN

‘Thucydides Trap’

OR

新型大国关系 (‘new model of major power relations’)

2. THE RETURN OF GEOPOLITICS

Location, location, location!

Priority for which connections?

East Asia’s 2 competing connectivity

projects:

a) The “Asia-Pacific”

East Asia’s two big competing

geopolitical projects:

b) The new silk routes (“Belt and Road”)

China’s ‘new silk roads’ c.2014 (Source: Xinhua)

3. GEOPOLITICAL CONNECTIVITY

Feedback loops & unintended consequences

西进

Proposed ‘Xinjiang corridors’

Source: YaleGlobal Online

4. CHINA’S EFFECTS ON GEOPOLITICS IN EAST ASIA

3 DRIVERS

DRIVER 1: RESPONSE OF GREAT POWERS

DRIVER 2: RESPONSE OF OTHER STATES

USN 7th Fleet

DRIVER 3: SUSTAINABILITY OF CHINA’S POWER

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