谨呈:研祥集团

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谨谨 谨谨谨谨 谨谨 谨谨谨谨谨谨谨 西 谨谨谨谨谨谨谨谨谨谨谨 2009.8.1 2

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谨呈:研祥集团. 研祥西安高新区写字楼 项目基础研究及定位报告. 2009.8.12. 本案目录. Part 1 | 市场篇 Part 2 | 项目地块分析 part 3 | 项目发展方向思考 part 4 | 项目物业发展建议 part 5 | 项目经济测算. Part1 | 市场篇. 寻找易于成功的写字楼产品. 一、西安市经济基础 二、西安市写字楼经济基础 三、西安市写字楼市场分析 四、西安写字楼现状分析 五、市场给予本案的启示. Part1 | 市场篇. 一、西安市经济基础. 人均可 支配收入. GDP. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of 谨呈:研祥集团

  • 2009.8.12

  • *Part 1 Part 2 part 3 part 4 part 5

  • *Part1

  • *Part1

  • * 200870 GDP0770GDP28 200839 20087017

    GDP124039178372190152071906

  • *21GDP13;30%

  • *

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    8301750126621435.33387.33

    GDP5097390121903004300116651468301725122284

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    91675341254254275275275

    1011618-4745-9461-9461102813671707223122312231313931393139306822902290247524752475

    11-138060-4745-14207-23668-22640-21273-19566-17335-15104-12873-9734-6595-3456-388190241926668914311618

    201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027

    151615000129617282160279927992799390539053905421842184218455545554555

    1.151615000129617282160279927992799390539053905421842184218455545554555

    233891474594619461268361453568568568766766766825825825888888888

    2.123668474594619461

    2.21191425875797979838383878787919191

    2.328397195119154154154215215215232232232251251251

    2.46194156207259336336336469469469506506506547547547

    34431000000000-16848848917917917

    4(1-2)17723-4745-9461-9461102813671707223122312231313931393139339333933393366736673667

    5-4745-14207-23668-22640-21273-19566-17335-15104-12873-9734-6595-3456-6333306723103901405717723

    613293-4745-9461-9461102813671707223122312231313931393139340825452545275027502750

    7-4745-14207-23668-22640-21273-19566-17335-15104-12873-9734-6595-3456-472498504277921054213293

    irr5.98%4.93%

    npv($34.58)($4,428.29)

    -1.018478640811.7-1.013795251212.87

    Sheet6

    260006000

    201020112012

    12430

    1.12790/24302430

    2895895

    2.13200075/240

    2.280600.13%10

    2.380600.05%4

    2.43200026

    2.580603.55%286

    2.63200030/96

    2.7320006/19

    2.8320001.5/5

    2.93200050160

    2.1030

    2.11320001238

    3806040304030

    3.1260002500/6500

    260001500/3900

    3.1.226000700/1820

    3.1.326000300/780

    3.260002600/1560

    4/560

    3.3.13200020/64

    3.3.2320005/16

    3.3.332000400

    3.3.43200025/80

    680601%8140.340.3

    790362%181606060

    992173%277929292

    11923

    10

    11923347842234223

    2838.8717911429

    8%

    201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027

    /454545494949525252575757616161

    160001800018000180001800018000180001800018000180001800018000180001800018000

    864972972105010501050113411341134122412241224132213221322

    6000201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027

    /60606064.864.864.8707070767676828282

    432432432467467467504504504544544544588588588

    npv13515

    201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027

    124602000129614041404151615161516163816381638176917691769191019101910

    20000000000000000

    5%2.10000000000000000

    7%2.20000000000000000

    3%2.30000000000000000

    12%30000000000000000

    424602129614041404151615161516163816381638176917691769191019101910

    201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027

    124602129614041404151615161516163816381638176917691769191019101910

    211923347842234223

    31191425875797979838383878787919191

    411488-3478-4223-4223125413461329143814381438155515551555168216821682181918191819

    5-26102-3478-7701-11923-10669-9323-7994-6556-5118-3681-2126-5709852667434960317850966911488

    62872667420420455455455

    78616-3478-4223-4223125413461329143814381438155515551555101512611261136413641364

    8-36615-3478-7701-11923-10669-9323-7994-6556-5118-3681-2126-570985200032614523588772528616

    9763102126126136136136

    107853-3478-4223-422312541346132914381438143815551555155591411351135122812281228

    11-39178-3478-7701-11923-10669-9323-7994-6556-5118-3681-2126-570985189830344169539766257853

    201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027

    124602000129614041404151615161516163816381638176917691769191019101910

    1.124602000129614041404151615161516163816381638176917691769191019101910

    213114347842234223425875797979838383878787919191

    2.111923347842234223

    2.21191425875797979838383878787919191

    2.30000000000000000

    2.40000000000000000

    32872000000000667420420455455455

    4(1-2)11488-3478-4223-4223125413461329143814381438155515551555168216821682181918191819

    5-3478-7701-11923-10669-9323-7994-6556-5118-3681-2126-5709852667434960317850966911488

    68616-3478-4223-4223125413461329143814381438155515551555101512611261136413641364

    7-3478-7701-11923-10669-9323-7994-6556-5118-3681-2126-570985200032614523588772528616

    irr8.03%6.75%

    npv$1,784.60($868.46)

    0.585396817711.70.969760699412.87

    20000

    260006000

    201020112012

    12430

    1.12790/24302430

    2895895

    2.13200075/240

    2.280600.13%10

    2.380600.05%4

    2.43200026

    2.580603.55%286

    2.63200030/96

    2.7320006/19

    2.8320001.5/5

    2.93200050160

    2.1030

    2.11320001238

    3806040304030

    3.1260002500/6500

    260001500/3900

    3.1.226000700/1820

    3.1.326000300/780

    3.260002600/1560

    4/560

    3.3.13200020/64

    3.3.2320005/16

    3.3.332000400

    3.3.43200025/80

    680601%8140.340.3

    790362%181606060

    992173%277929292

    11923

    10

    11923347842234223

    2838.8717911429

    8%

    201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027

    /454545494949525252575757616161

    100001800018000180001800018000180001800018000180001800018000180001800018000

    540972972105010501050113411341134122412241224132213221322

    6000201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027

    /60606064.864.864.8707070767676828282

    432432432467467467504504504544544544588588588

    npv13215

    201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027

    12427800097214041404151615161516163816381638176917691769191019101910

    21335537777838383909090979797105105105

    5%2.11214497070767676828282888888969696

    7%2.285355555666666777

    3%2.336122222222333333

    12%32913117168168182182182197197197212212212229229229

    42002980211581158125112511251135113511351145914591459157615761576

    201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027

    12002980211581158125112511251135113511351145914591459157615761576

    211923347842234223

    31191425875797979838383878787919191

    46915-3478-4223-422376011001083117211721172126912691269137213721372148514851485

    5-62430-3478-7701-11923-11163-10063-8979-7807-6635-5462-4194-2925-1657-28410882461394654306915

    61729-71343343371371371

    75186-3478-4223-422376011001083117211721172126912691269144410291029111411141114

    8-67319-3478-7701-11923-11163-10063-8979-7807-6635-5462-4194-2925-1657-2138161846295940735186

    9684144103103111111111

    104502-3478-4223-4223760110010831172117211721269126912691299926926100210021002

    11-69780-3478-7701-11923-11163-10063-8979-7807-6635-5462-4194-2925-1657-3585691495249835004502

    201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027

    12427800097214041404151615161516163816381638176917691769191019101910

    1.12427800097214041404151615161516163816381638176917691769191019101910

    217363347842234223212304321344344344369369369396396396425425425

    2.111923347842234223

    2.21191425875797979838383878787919191

    2.31335537777838383909090979797105105105

    2.42913117168168182182182197197197212212212229229229

    31729000000000-71343343371371371

    4(1-2)6915-3478-4223-422376011001083117211721172126912691269137213721372148514851485

    5-3478-7701-11923-11163-10063-8979-7807-6635-5462-4194-2925-1657-28410882461394654306915

    65186-3478-4223-422376011001083117211721172126912691269144410291029111411141114

    7-3478-7701-11923-11163-10063-8979-7807-6635-5462-4194-2925-1657-2138161846295940735186

    irr5.16%4.23%

    npv($701.02)($2,552.53)

    -1.207072978711.7-1.147660603712.87

    30000

    360006000

    201020112012

    12430

    1.12790/24302430

    211651165

    2.14200075/315

    2.2105600.13%14

    2.3105600.05%5

    2.44200028

    2.5105603.55%375

    2.64200030/126

    2.7420006/25

    2.8420001.5/6

    2.94200050210

    2.1030

    2.11420001250

    31056052805280

    3.1360002500/9000

    360001500/5400

    3.1.236000700/2520

    3.1.336000300/1080

    3.260002600/1560

    4/610

    3.3.14200020/84

    3.3.2420005/21

    3.3.342000400

    3.3.44200025/105

    6105601%10652.852.8

    7118312%237797979

    9120673%362121121121

    14859

    10

    14859379555325532

    3537.9585411429

    8%

    20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    /4545454949495252525757576161

    1600024000270002700027000270002700027000270002700027000270002700027000

    8641296145815751575157517011701170118371837183719841984

    600020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    /60606064.864.864.87070707676768282

    432432432467467467504504504544544544588588

    npv13041

    2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

    1200320001296172818902041204120412204220422042381

    200000000000

    5%2.100000000000

    7%2.200000000000

    3%2.300000000000

    12%360139525761616166666671

    4194311257167618331980198019802138213821382309

    2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

    1194311257167618331980198019802138213821382309

    214859379555325532

    374542587579797983838387

    43827-3795-5532-55321216161817581901190119012056205620562223

    5-80841-3795-9327-14859-13644-12026-10267-8366-6465-4563-2508-45216043827

    6957957

    72870-3795-5532-55321216161817581901190119012056205620561266

    8-81797-3795-9327-14859-13644-12026-10267-8366-6465-4563-2508-45216042870

    9127127

    102744-3795-5532-55321216161817581901190119012056205620561139

    11-81924-3795-9327-14859-13644-12026-10267-8366-6465-4563-2508-45216042744

    2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

    1200320001296172818902041204120412204220422042381

    1.1200320001296172818902041204120412204220422042381

    21620537955532553280110132140140140149149149158

    2.114859379555325532

    2.274542587579797983838387

    2.300000000000

    2.460139525761616166666671

    3957000000000957

    4(1-2)3827-3795-5532-55321216161817581901190119012056205620562223

    5-3795-9327-14859-13644-12026-10267-8366-6465-4563-2508-45216043827

    62870-3795-5532-55321216161817581901190119012056205620561266

    7-3795-9327-14859-13644-12026-10267-8366-6465-4563-2508-45216042870

    irr3.51%2.78%

    npv($2,990.22)($3,342.01)

    0.721700780611.71.267086911912.87

    40000

    460006000

    201020112012

    12430

    1.12790/24302430

    214351435

    2.15200075/390

    2.2130600.13%17

    2.3130600.05%7

    2.452000210

    2.5130603.55%464

    2.65200030/156

    2.7520006/31

    2.8520001.5/8

    2.95200050260

    2.1030

    2.11520001262

    31306065306530

    3.1460002500/11500

    460001500/6900

    3.1.246000700/3220

    3.1.346000300/1380

    3.260002600/1560

    4/660

    3.3.15200020/104

    3.3.2520005/26

    3.3.352000400

    3.3.45200025/130

    6130601%13165.365.3

    7146262%293989898

    9149183%448149149149

    17796

    10

    17796411268426842

    4237.0452911429

    8%

    20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    /4545454949495252525757576161

    1600024000320003600036000360003600036000360003600036000360003600036000

    8641296172821002100210022672267226724492449244926452645

    600020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    /60606064.864.864.87070707676768282

    432432432467467467504504504544544544588588

    npv15533

    2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

    1241890001296172821602566256625662771277127712993

    200000000000

    5%2.100000000000

    7%2.200000000000

    3%2.300000000000

    12%300000000000

    4241891296172821602566256625662771277127712993

    2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

    1241891296172821602566256625662771277127712993

    217796411268426842

    374542587579797983838387

    45649-4112-6842-68421254167020852487248724872689268926892906

    5-94682-4112-10954-17796-16541-14871-12786-10299-7811-5324-26355427435649

    614121412

    74237-4112-6842-68421254167020852487248724872689268926891494

    8-96095-4112-10954-17796-16541-14871-12786-10299-7811-5324-26355427434237

    9149149

    104088-4112-6842-68421254167020852487248724872689268926891345

    11-96244-4112-10954-17796-16541-14871-12786-10299-7811-5324-26355427434088

    2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

    1241890001296172821602566256625662771277127712993

    1.1241890001296172821602566256625662771277127712993

    21854041126842684242587579797983838387

    2.117796411268426842

    2.274542587579797983838387

    2.300000000000

    2.400000000000

    314120000000001412

    4(1-2)5649-4112-6842-68421254167020852487248724872689268926892906

    5-4112-10954-17796-16541-14871-12786-10299-7811-5324-26355427435649

    64237-4112-6842-68421254167020852487248724872689268926891494

    7-4112-10954-17796-16541-14871-12786-10299-7811-5324-26355427434237

    irr4.17%3.32%

    npv($3,157.04)($3,676.34)

    0.943701953911.71.835729904412.87

    50000

    560006000

    201020112012

    12430

    1.12790/24302430

    217051705

    2.16200075/465

    2.2155600.13%20

    2.3155600.05%8

    2.462000212

    2.5155603.55%552

    2.66200030/186

    2.7620006/37

    2.8620001.5/9

    2.96200050310

    2.1030

    2.11620001274

    31556077807780

    3.1560002500/14000

    560001500/8400

    3.1.256000700/3920

    3.1.356000300/1680

    3.260002600/1560

    4/710

    3.3.16200020/124

    3.3.2620005/31

    3.3.362000400

    3.3.46200025/155

    6155601%15677.877.8

    7174202%348116116116

    9177693%533178178178

    20732

    10

    20732442981528152

    4936.1320411429

    8%

    20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    /4545454949495252525757576161

    1600024000320004000045000450004500045000450004500045000450004500045000

    8641296172823332333233328342834283430613061306133063306

    600020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    /60606064.864.864.87070707676768282

    432432432467467467504504504544544544588588

    npv17214

    2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

    1272020001296172821602799279927993338333833383605

    200000000000

    5%2.100000000000

    7%2.200000000000

    3%2.300000000000

    12%300000000000

    4272021296172821602799279927993338333833383605

    2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

    1272021296172821602799279927993338333833383605

    220732442981528152

    374542587579797983838387

    45726-4429-8152-81521254167020852721272127213256325632563519

    5-119010-4429-12580-20732-19477-17808-15722-13002-10281-7560-4304-104922075726

    614311431

    74294-4429-8152-81521254167020852721272127213256325632562087

    8-120442-4429-12580-20732-19477-17808-15722-13002-10281-7560-4304-104922074294

    9209209

    104086-4429-8152-81521254167020852721272127213256325632561878

    11-120650-4429-12580-20732-19477-17808-15722-13002-10281-7560-4304-104922074086

    2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

    1272020001296172821602799279927993338333833383605

    1.1272020001296172821602799279927993338333833383605

    22147644298152815242587579797983838387

    2.120732442981528152

    2.274542587579797983838387

    2.300000000000

    2.400000000000

    314310000000001431

    4(1-2)5726-4429-8152-81521254167020852721272127213256325632563519

    5-4429-12580-20732-19477-17808-15722-13002-10281-7560-4304-104922075726

    64294-4429-8152-81521254167020852721272127213256325632562087

    7-4429-12580-20732-19477-17808-15722-13002-10281-7560-4304-104922074294

    irr3.58%2.83%

    npv($4,278.12)($4,804.46)

    0.627255311211.71.057434142212.87

    60000

    660006000

    201020112012

    12430

    1.12790/24302430

    219741974

    2.17200075/540

    2.2180600.13%23

    2.3180600.05%9

    2.472000214

    2.5180603.55%641

    2.67200030/216

    2.7720006/43

    2.8720001.5/11

    2.97200050360

    2.1030

    2.11720001286

    31806090309030

    3.1660002500/16500

    660001500/9900

    3.1.266000700/4620

    3.1.366000300/1980

    3.260002600/1560

    4/760

    3.3.17200020/144

    3.3.2720005/36

    3.3.372000400

    3.3.47200025/180

    6180601%18190.390.3

    7202152%404135135135

    9206193%619206206206

    23668

    10

    23668474594619461

    5635.2187911429

    8%

    20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    /4545454949495252525757576161

    1600024000320004000048000540005400054000540005400054000540005400054000

    8641296172823332333233334013401340136733673367339673967

    600020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

    /60606064.864.864.87070707676768282

    432432432467467467504504504544544544588588

    npv18418

    2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

    1295150001296172821602799279927993905390539054218

    200000000000

    5%2.100000000000

    7%2.200000000000

    3%2.300000000000

    12%300000000000

    4295151296172821602799279927993905390539054218

    2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

    1295151296172821602799279927993905390539054218

    223668474594619461

    374542587579797983838387

    45102-4745-9461-94611254167020852721272127213823382338234131

    5-147537-4745-14207-23668-22413-20744-18659-15938-13217-10496-6674-28519725102

    612761276

    73827-4745-9461-94611254167020852721272127213823382338232855

    8-148813-4745-14207-23668-22413-20744-18659-15938-13217-10496-6674-28519723827

    9286286

    103541-4745-9461-94611254167020852721272127213823382338232570

    11-149099-4745-14207-23668-22413-20744-18659-15938-13217-10496-6674-28519723541

    2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

    1295150001296172821602799279927993905390539054218

    1.1295150001296172821602799279927993905390539054218

    22441347459461946142587579797983838387

    2.123668474594619461

    2.274542587579797983838387

    2.300000000000

    2.400000000000

    312760000000001276

    4(1-2)5102-4745-9461-94611254167020852721272127213823382338234131

    5-4745-14207-23668-22413-20744-18659-15938-13217-10496-6674-28519725102

    63827-4745-9461-94611254167020852721272127213823382338232855

    7-4745-14207-23668-22413-20744-18659-15938-13217-10496-6674-28519723827

    irr2.78%2.17%

    npv($5,778.06)($6,247.10)

    0.235190284611.70.340262526312.87

    Sheet5

    25.16%

    36.25%

    46.53%

    56.33%

    65.98%

    Sheet5

    %

  • Part4

  • 12001500:1100200;220030%

  • :1;23

  • 5A

  • ()

    (m)8006000(-/() -320200120-51---10- -+-

  • /2502500/2001200//1001100250012500/600160060016005001500100011000

  • 1.120 2.320B

    180092.5546000140000260006000

  • Part5

  • 2010201120122013

    201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027

  • 127246,000 2.1400002.260003600042.55530

  • [2002]1020021980 2006[1999]12831999

  • 12430214353130604660513162937448817796

  • 45//8%16000800090%60//8%18

  • 20132014201520162017201820192020/45454549 49 49 52 52 16000 24000 32000 36000 36000 36000 36000 36000 864129617282100 2100 2100 2267 2267 /60606064.864.864.870 70 432432432467467467504 504

    2021202220232024202520262027/52 57 57 57 61 61 61 36000 36000 36000 36000 36000 36000 36000 2267 2449 2449 2449 2645 2645 2645 /70 76 76 76 82 82 82 504 544 544 544 588 588 588

  • 201320142015201620172018201913987312961728216025662566256627712219371951191411411411522.1199465861081281281281392.2140568999102.3602334444347851562072593083083083334328951069142617822117211721172286

    2020202120222023202420252026202712771277129932993299332333233323321521521651651651781781782.11391391501501501621621622.210101010101111112.3444445553333333359359359388388388422862286246924692469266726672667

  • 2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620271328951069142617822117211721172286228622862469246924692667266726672177964112 6842 6842 3119142 58 75 79 79 79 83 83 83 87 87 87 91 91 91 413909-4112 -6842 -6842 1028 1367 1707 2038 2038 2038 2204 2204 2204 2383 2383 2383 2576 2576 2576 571688-4112 -10954 -17796 -16768 -15401 -13693 -11655 -9617 -7578 -5374 -3170 -967 1416 3799 6181 8757 11333 13909 63477354596596644644644710432-4112 -6842 -6842 1028 1367 1707 2038 2038 2038 2204 2204 2204 2029 1787 1787 1932 1932 1932 883037-4112 -10954 -17796 -16768 -15401 -13693 -11655 -9617 -7578 -5374 -3170 -967 1062 2849 4636 6568 8500 10432 91140203 179 179 193 193 193 109292-4112 -6842 -6842 1028 1367 1707 2038 2038 2038 2204 2204 2204 1826 1608 1608 1739 1739 1739 1187022-4112 -10954 -17796 -16768 -15401 -13693 -11655 -9617 -7578 -5374 -3170 -967 859 2467 4076 5814 7553 9292

  • 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 1 39873 0 0 0 1296 1728 2160 2566 2566 2566 2771 2771 2771 2993 2993 2993 3233 3233 3233 1.1 39873 0 0 0 1296 1728 2160 2566 2566 2566 2771 2771 2771 2993 2993 2993 3233 3233 3233 2 25964 4112 6842 6842 268 361 453 528 528 528 568 568 568 610 610 610 657 657 657 2.1 17796 4112 6842 6842 2.2 1191 42 58 75 79 79 79 83 83 83 87 87 87 91 91 91 2.3 2193 71 95 119 141 141 141 152 152 152 165 165 165 178 178 178 2.4 4785 156 207 259 308 308 308 333 333 333 359 359 359 388 388 388 33477 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 354 596 596 644 644 644 4 (1-2)13909 -4112 -6842 -6842 1028 1367 1707 2038 2038 2038 2204 2204 2204 2383 2383 2383 2576 2576 2576 5 -4112 -10954 -17796 -16768 -15401 -13693 -11655 -9617 -7578 -5374 -3170 -967 1416 3799 6181 8757 11333 13909 6 10432 -4112 -6842 -6842 1028 1367 1707 2038 2038 2038 2204 2204 2204 2029 1787 1787 1932 1932 1932 7 -4112 -10954 -17796 -16768 -15401 -13693 -11655 -9617 -7578 -5374 -3170 -967 1062 2849 4636 6568 8500 10432

  • 6.53%()5.42%-165912

  • 15206.53%8.79%5.42%7.55%-165911551212

  • THANKS!

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