5. Pengambilan Risiko Risk Taking · PDF file–Risiko dan Pengambilan keputusan bisnis...
Transcript of 5. Pengambilan Risiko Risk Taking · PDF file–Risiko dan Pengambilan keputusan bisnis...
5. Pengambilan Risiko(Risk Taking)
Tujuan Pembelajaran
• Menjelaskan konsep resiko
• Menjelaskan bagaimana pengambilan resiko dilakukan
• Mengidentifikasi resiko-resiko yang potensial terjadi ketika memulai usaha
• Menjelaskan pengelolaan resiko
Pengantar
Entrepreneur : BERANI MENGHADAPI RESIKO, CELAAN, PENGEKANGAN, BAHKAN PENGACUHAN
Entrepreneur menurut David McClelland
• Memiliki kecenderungan mengambilrisiko yg moderat (risiko yang terhitungatau calculated risk).
• mempunyai persepsi mengenai kemungkinan mencapai keberhasilan
Landau's classification ofentrepreneurial types
Typology of Entrepreneurial Styles
Source: Thomas Monroy and Robert Folger, “A Typology of Entrepreneurial Styles: Beyond Economic Rationality,” Journal of Private Enterprise IX(2) (1993): 71.
The Level Of Entrepreneur
Little
Risk
Medium
Risk
Taker
Risk
Manager
Risk
Taker
Very Risk
Manager
Risk Free
Unemployee Employee Self
Employee (self Business)
Businessman (business
owner system)
Investor Gambler (Speculative)
0 1 2 3 4 5
Entrepreneurship Theory
• Entrepreneurs cause entrepreneurship.– Entrepreneurship is a function of the
entrepreneur:
– Entrepreneurship is the interaction of skills relatedto inner control, planning and goal setting, risktaking, innovation, reality perception, use offeedback, decision making, human relations, andindependence.
( )E f e
The uncertainty of an event occurring that could have an impact on the achievement of objectives.
WHAT IS RISK?
It is also the probability ofsomething you do not wantto happen,
happening.
Pengertian Resiko• Definisi Resiko
– Ketidakpastian (uncertainty)– Konsekuensi yang memunculkan dampak yang merugikan– Risiko dan Pengambilan keputusan bisnis– Hubungan antara: Risk - Risiko – Rizki – Rejeki
• Sesuatu yang buruk (tidak diinginkan), baik yang sudah diperhitungkanmaupun yang belum diperhitungkan, yang merupakan suatu akibat darisuatu tindakan atau kegiatan
• Motivasi mengambil resiko– Menginginkan pengembalian yang sepadan (return)
• mampu mengkalkulasi risiko– Kepepet
• tidak mampu mengkalkulasi risiko, atau• tidak tahu risiko yang dihadapi
EXAMPLES OF RISK
risk of injury to staff and clients
risk of buildings being vandalised
risk of harm to authorised and unauthorised visitors
risk of contracting communicable diseases
risk of theft
EXAMPLES OF RISK
risk of fraud
risk of storm and/or water damage
risk of poorly drafted contracts
risk of assault
risk of bad personnel appointments
risk of adverse publicity
risk of loss of computer data.
Jenis-jenis Risiko Dalam Bisnis
– Risiko Murni• Risiko hilang/rusaknya aset yang dimiliki• Risiko Kecelakaan kerja• Risiko akibat tuntutan hukum• Risiko operasional lainnya• Bencana alam (force majure)
– Risiko spekulatif• Risiko Perubahan Harga
– Perubahan harga input– Perubahan harga output
• Risiko Kredit
Kriteria Resiko
• Resiko TinggiKeberhasilannya sangat kecil dibanding kegagalannya (sering gagal)
• Resiko RendahKeberhasilan lebih besar dibandingkan dengan kegagalannya (sering berhasil)
• Resiko SedangKeberhasilan relatif lebih besar dibandingkan dengan kegagalannya
Bentuk Kerugian Akibat Risiko
– Kerugian Langsung
• Nominal yang harus ditanggung akibat dampak langsung risiko yang terjadi.
– Kerugian Tidak Langsung
• Kemungkinan sales/profit yang gagal diterima
• Munculnya biaya operasional tambahan
• Kesempatan investasi yang hilang
• Kerugian lainnya
The reason people don’t take risks is generallybecause they are not o.k. with the possibilityof failure. We must overcome the fear oflosing everything if we expect to gain more.
This is not to suggest that we should takefoolish risks, but we should never be so fearfulthat we take no risks. One author has statedthat the person who risks, does nothing, hasnothing and is nothing.
Risk Assessment is the systemic process for assessing and integrating professional
judgements about probable adverse
conditions and/or events.
RISK ASSESSMENT
THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS
COMMUNICATE
&
CONSULT
M
O
N
I
T
O
R
&
R
E
V
I
E
W
ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT
IDENTIFY RISKS
ANALYSE RISKS
EVALUATE RISKS
ASSESS RISKS
TREAT RISKS
The risk management process
Step 1 : Establish Your Context
• scope
• organisational
• environmental
• outputs and business objectives
• risk criteria (i.e. threshold levels)
• linkage to other plans
Step 2 : Identify Your Risks
• identify key processes, tasks, activities
• recognise risk areas
• define risks
• categorise risk
Communicate and
consult - at all stepsStep 4 : Evaluate and Prioritise
Your Risks
• identify acceptable/unacceptable
risks (referring risk rating against risk
criteria)
• prioritise risks for treatment
Step 3 : Analyse Your Risks
• identify controls
• determine likelihood
• determine consequence/impact
• rate risks
Step 6 : Monitor and Review Your
Risks
• process
• environment
• organisation
• strategy
• stakeholders
Step 5 : Treat Your RisksAccept/Retain
• based on judgement or
documented
procedures/policy
Avoid
• consider discontinuing or
avoiding activity
• consult
• risk treatment preferable to
risk aversion
Reduce consequence
• contingency planning
• contractual arrangements
• public relations
Transfer
• insurance
• outsourcing
Reduce likelihood
• controls
• process improvement
• training
• Policies and communication
• audit and compliance
Taking a risk: it isn’t all bad
Taking risks is a normal unavoidable
everyday necessity
Taking controlled, informed risks is a sensible
and everyday essential part of life
Taking uninformed, uncontrolled risks
is patently dumb
We take risks not to avoid harm,
but to achieve benefits and gains
Risk taking is positive,
not implicitly negative.
Risk Management is not just the
responsibility of management
Risk Management is everybody’s business
For Risk Management to be effective
it must be implemented
by every person in the organisation
Risk Management must become an integral part of the organisational culture
The risk makers and risk takers must be the
risk managers.
MANAGING RISK
Risk Management is all about maximisingopportunity by managing risk.
We all manage risk consciously or unconsciously - but rarely systematically
Managing risk means forward thinking
Managing risk means responsible thinking
Managing risk means balanced thinking
Risk Management provides a framework to facilitate more effective decision making
Where do risks come from?
• Risk involves uncertainty about the likelihood of events and the value of their consequences.
• Risk arises from interactions between people and their social and physical environment.
• Risk depends not only on physical conditions but also on human actions and decisions.
Identification of Sources of Risk
personnel/human behaviour
management activities and controls
economic circumstances
natural and unnatural events
political circumstances
technology/technical issues
commercial and legal relationships
public/professional/product liability
the activity itself.
1. Strategic Risks
a. Environment Risks
– Natural and man-made disasters
– Political/country
– Laws and regulations
– Industry
– Competitors
– Financial Markets
Risks Categories
b. Organisation Risks– Corporate Objectives and Strategies
– Planning
– Resource Allocation
– Monitoring
– Mergers, acquisitions and divestitures
– Joint Ventures and alliances
– Leadership
– Vision
– Judgement
– Succession Planning
– Tone at the Top
– Management
– Accountability
– Authority
– Responsibility
– Corporate Governance
– Ethics
– Reputation
– Values
– Fraud and illegal acts
– Human Resources
– Performance Rewards
– Benefits
– Workplace environment
– Diversity
2. Operating Risks• Workforce
– Hiring
– Knowledge and skills
– Development and training
– Size
– Safety
• Suppliers– Outsourcing
– Procurement practices
– Availability, price and quality of
suppliers’ products and services
• Physical Plant– Capacity
– Technology/obsolescence
• Protection– Physical plant and other tangible assets– Knowledge and intellectual property
2 Operating Risks (Cont’d)
• Products and Services– Development– Quality– Pricing– Cost– Delivery– Consumer protection– Technology/obsolesence
• Customers– Needs
– Satisfaction
– Credit
• Regulatory Compliance– Employment
– Products and services
– Environmental
– ALL relevant Laws
3. Financial Risks
• Capital/Financing– Availability
– Interest rates
– Creditworthiness
• Investing– Cash availability
– Securities
– Receivables
– Inventories
– Derivatives
• Regulatory Compliance– Security
– Taxation
• Information Risks– Reliability
– Sufficiency
– Protection
– Technology
• Strategic Information– Relevance and accuracy of measurements
– Availability
– Assumptions• Operating Information
– Relevance and accuracy of measurements– Availability– Regulatory Reporting
• Financial Information– Relevance and accuracy of measurements
– Accounting
– Budgets
– Taxation
– Financial Reporting
– Regulatory Reporting
4. Information Risks
HOW DO ENTREPRENEURS MAKE PLANS TO MANAGE RISK????
1. Analyzing current and future economic and market conditions.
2. Considering the consequences of alternative actions
3. Making reasonable decisions in response to conditions as they develop and change.
What to do about the risk
• RISK AVOIDANCE (eliminating the risk)
• RISK REDUCTION (minimizing the risk)
• RISK TRANSFER
• RISK ASSUMPTION
Most entrepreneurs use a combination of methods when controlling and managing risks.
Bagaimana Mengkalkulasi Risiko
– Tentukan seberapa sering risiko tersebut terjadi (frekuensi atau probability).
– Tentukan dampak yang timul dari risiko yang terjadi (dampak).
– Hitung kemungkinan prediksi kerugian, dengan formula:
Frekuensi x Dampak
Contoh– Risiko terjadinya pencurian barang dagangan
– Frekuensi: 1 bulan 5 kali
– Dampak: Dalam setiap kejadian rata-rata kerugian yang ditanggung adalah Rp 300 ribu
– Kemungkinan prediksi kerugian:
5 x 300.000 = 1.500.000
Artinya: Dalam satu bulan terdapat risiko pencurian barang dagangan yg berpotensi menyebabkan kerugian sebesar Rp1,5 juta
Pengelolaan Risiko
– Mulai dari Risiko yang memiliki kemungkinan prediksi kerugian terbesar (prinsip Pareto)
– Pilihan Strategi Pengelolaan:
• Dikontrol, supaya risiko-risiko tidak muncul, misal: SOP, Quality Control.
• Ditransfer kepada pihak lain, misal: konsumen, supplier dan asuransi.
• Dibiayai sendiri, dibuat cadangan dana untuk membiayai jika risiko terjadi.
Tips & Trik Menghadapi risiko
– Perlu difahami bahwa risiko tidak untuk menjadi penghambatuntuk maju. Risiko harus diambil sebagai konsekuensimenginginkan sesuatu yang lebih baik (keberhasilan).
– Identifikasi risiko apa yang berpotensi muncul dalam bisnis.
– Identifikasi seberapa sering risiko tersebut muncul.
– Identifikasi seberapa besar dampak dari risiko yang muncultersebut.
– Siapkan langkah-langkah mitigasi risiko hanya pada risiko yang dominan/prioritas.
is to take no risk
at all!
The greatest risk
of all