38 _C16-6 نظرية المنفعة .pdf
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Transcript of 38 _C16-6 نظرية المنفعة .pdf
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.
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.
.
.
.
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)Utility(
.
(Diminishing Marginal Utility) .
.
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) Utility Index( :
. . A B A B B
A . . .
A B B C A C .
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A B A . . B A B
C B B A . A P A
B C P .
)1( P
-
)Utility Function ( .
: H L .
0 L . . 100 H
.X P . H L .
L P H
.
0)( =LU100)( =HU
)(XU
)1( P
-
. .
)Gamble( : . H L
P100 PU 100)( =
PPP 100)1(0100 =+
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: 1 :
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: ) ( )( )( .
.400=L800=H0)400( =U
100)800( =U
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: 200 . 100 $ 200
$ 800 99 . $ 400
$ 200 2
65 . .
$ 200 P = 0.65 .
: 200
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: P = 0.85
.
40021 =
65035.010065.0
)400(35.0)800(65.0)200(
=+=
+= UUU
85015.010085.0
)400(15.0)800(85.0)400(
=+=
+= UUU
)400(U)200(U)400(U)800(U
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X ) ) . ij)(XU
-
). Risk(
X .
)Risk Averse (
. .
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. )Risk Neutral( .
. X
.
.
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) Risk Seekers(
. X
). Increasing Marginal Utility(
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.
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.
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)Expected Utility Criterion(
.
.
:
. ( )
=
=k
jijji UPaUE
1)(
ijUij
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:2 0.3 1
. 0.7 .
: :
.
1s2s
2a
( )( ) 79)85(7.0)69(3.0)2(
70)100(7.0)0(3.0)1(
=+=
=+=
aUE
aUE
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:
.
260)200(7.0400(3.0)2(
440)800(7.0)400(3.0)1(
=+=
=+=
aEMV
aEMV
2a
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