Financial Year 2012

1H review

Saturday 25th February

1

Austock

证券 & 公司金融

Austock

房地产

Austock

人寿保险

调研部 企业咨询 房地产基金管理 避税债券

机构合作 合并 & 收购 房地产资产管理 儿童基金债券

私人客户股票交易 股票市场

Agenda 讲座进程

Part 1 – FY 2012 Market Performance

2012财年市场表现

2012 H1 Share market performance

2012 上半个财年股票市场表现

Forward looking 2012

2012年展望

ASX Sector analysis

ASX各板块分析

Stock Picker Must knows

股票挑选须知

Part 2 – Leverage your investment returns via Exchange Traded Options

通过交易所买卖期权获得投资回报

Call options

看涨期权

Protective Puts

保护性看跌期权

ASX: FY 2012 First Half Global Index performance

2012上半财年全球股指表现

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

Mar-07 Oct-07 May-08 Nov-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jul-10 Jan-11 Aug-11 Mar-12

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

SP 500

ASX

Sector performances 各板块表现

12 Months

Energy 能源 -17%

Materials 原材料 -22%

Industrials 工业 -8%

Consumer Discretionary 非必需消费品 -21%

Consumer Staple 必需消费品 -8%

Health Care 保健 -12%

Financials 金融 -15%

Info Tech 信息科技 -18%

Telecom Services 电信服务 14%

Sector performances 各板块表现

12 Months 2012

Energy 能源 -17% 7%

Materials 原材料 -22% 7%

Industrials 工业 -8% 7%

Consumer Discretionary 非必需消费品 -21% 3%

Consumer Staple 必需消费品 -8% -1%

Health Care 保健 -12% -3%

Financials 金融 -15% 1%

Info Tech 信息科技 -18% -1%

Telecom Services 电信服务 14% 2%

ASX Sector Analysis Winners ASX各板块分析

Reporting season highlights

Consumer discretionary remains soft

DJS *-11%, SFH -64%, JBH –9%, PBG -38%

非必需消费品板块疲软

Banking sector forecast remains challenging due to

cost limited capital management activity within

large cap resources

ANZ+4.6%, NAB+3.8%, CBA+7%, WBC-3%

银行板块前景遭遇挑战

Domestic cyclical remain at risk to the strong AUD

(ANZ, NVT, BSL)

本地周期性产业因强势澳元而面临风险

Expectations were low coming in to the reporting

season

(OST, JBH, PRU, BXB)

财报季利润预期下调

Below

32%Above

36%

In line

32%

1H 2012 results

*2Q sales

Reporting Season Highlights 财报季重点关注

BEST 之前 之后 %

BBG $1.79 $2.76 +54.19%

OST $0.73 $0.95 +30.14%

IMD $2.03 $2.44 +20.20%

ALS $1.16 $1.35 +16.38%

Worst

TWO $0.55 $0.47 -14.55%

ERA $1.54 $1.32 -14.29%

AQP $2.50 $2.17 -13.20%

PMP $0.42 $0.37 -12.94%

Forward looking 2012 2012年展望

Why the Australian Share market is going higher this year

China GDP growth to remain strong

中国GDP继续强劲增长

Meaning funding support for the debt ridden areas of Europe from EU and IMF

欧盟和国际货币基金组织援助欧元区债务问题严重的国家

Sustainable recover in growth from our major trading partners

周边主要贸易伙伴国家实现可持续性发展

Domestic stocks remains undervalued

本地股票价值被低估

Record level of cash

现金储备量达到记录高点

Rate Cutting Cycle

降息周期

41%

28%

31%

BHP FMG LNC OSH WPL ALK RSG NCM STO BCI BLY PBG

ASX Sector Favourites ASX最值得关注板块

Financials 金融

ANZ, NAB, SUN, AMP

Materials 原材料

BHP, RIO, FMG, PDN, RSG, GBG

Energy 能源

OSH, LNC, DYE

Industrials 工业

DCG, MIN, RCR, NWH, EHL

Consumer 消费

RFG, PBG, MYR, CRZ, WEB

Tel Co & Information Technology 电信科技

TLS, SMX, CPU

Stock Picker Must Knows 股票挑选须知

Things to consider when picking your stock of choice

挑选股票所要考量的因素

Invest in companies, not just a stock

投资一家公司，而不是一支股票

− Strong Balance sheet, Strong Management, Strong Cashflow

− 财务报表乐观，管理得当

Diversify your investments

多样化投资组合

Investor for Income or Growth

稳定型和增长型投资

Protect your investments Through Options

通过期权保护投资收益

Just because the share price is large, doesn’t mean it’s expensive

股票价格高，不代表股票价格“贵”

Opportunities in 2012 2012投资机会

Stocks offering “sustainable yields”

提供稳定收益的股票

Income FY 12 Yield Dividend$

1 TLS 8.40% 0.28

2 MYR 9.20% 0.19

3 APA 7.30% 0.35

4 ENV 7.70% 0.058

5 QBE 10.50% 0.87

6 SGP 7.50% 0.237

7 TTS 8.70% 0.22

8 ANZ 6.60% 1.43

9 NAB 8.00% 1.85

10 WES 6.10% 1.8

Stocks offering Higher “Growth”

提供高增长的股票

Growth FY 12 EPS %

Price

Target

Up side to

PT

PDN 92% 3.00 68%

LNC 74% 3.01 114%

PBG -24.5 0.89 69%

MIN 37% 17.05 35%

DCG -1% 3.50 73%

GBG 98% 0.93 26%

BLY 40% 4.90 36%

RSG 28% 3.26 36%

NWH 91% 3.50 7%

OSH -14% 7.40 12%

第二部分：从股票期权中获益

Exchange Traded Options 交易所买卖期权

期权是金融杠杆产品，给予买方在一定时间段内或特定日期，以约定价格购买或变卖证券的权利。

针对特定上市公司股票

小资产投入，高杠杆投资回报

保护所持有股票组合的价值

熊市牛市皆可获益

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Call options

看涨期权( + )

Put options

看跌期权( -)

The right to BUY Stock for a certain price in the future without the

Obligation to do so 买方拥有在未来以约定价格购买股票的权利，而并非义务.

Buyer Seller

The right to SELL Stock for a certain price in the future without the

Obligation to do so买方拥有在未来以约定价格变卖股票的权利，而并非义务

Buyer Seller

14

期权的组成部分

1. 合同大小 1份合同=100单位相关股票

2. 相关证券 合同中所指的相关股票

3. 有效期 合同涵盖的有效时间

4. 目标价位 合同中约定的买进、卖出价格

5. 期权类型 看涨或看跌

6. 价格 期权合同中买方支付给卖方的费用

1 ANZ OCT11 $20.00 Call @ $0.50

看涨期权：低廉的看涨获益途径

第一天： ANZ股价=$20每股

投资者认为ANZ股价会在十月到期日时上涨$1 至$21每股

投资者的选择：

以现价$20每股购进1000股ANZ股票= $20,000

买入10份ANZ看涨期权 @ $0.40 = $400

股票 期权

1000股 花费 $20,000 $400

ANZ 股价@ $21.00 $1,000 $600

ANZ 股价@ $19.00 -$1,000 -$400

% 回报率 5% 150%

看跌期权：保护股价下跌可能造成的损失

第一天 BHP股价= $38.00 每股 投资者认为BHP股价会在10月到期日时下跌$1,至$37每股.

投资者的选择：

以现价$38每股卖出BHP股票

买入10份 BHP 看跌期权@ $0.60

股票 期权

1000股花费 $38,000 *$600

BHP 股价@ $37.00 $0 $400

BHP 股价 @ $39.00 -$1,000 -$600

% 回报率 0% 66%

Conclusion 总结

Macro Economic environment will remain challenging for 2012 but we remain

selectively bullish on some sectors.

经济大环境将在2012年面临挑战，但我们仍然选择性看好一些板块

We prefer companies with operational leverage to the Industrial and Mining Services

Sectors.

我们偏向工业和矿业板块

Falling demand for fix interest assets will boost demand for high dividend paying

stocks

固定收益资产的需求下降可能推动高股息股票的需求

Options can be used to protect the value of investments in falling markets

在市场低迷时，期权可被用来保护投资组合

Utilize market research available to you to make an informed decision.

整合可获得的市场分析，帮助做出投资决定

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Daily 每日

Market Bulletin

市场快报

Stock Research

股票研究

Weekly 每周

Weekly News Letter

每周时事通讯

Quantitative Review

定量分析

Trader’s Book

交易员手册

Monthly 每月

Model Portfolio Update

资产组合更新

From the Grassroots

Austock Research

Austock Research is an independent and premier research house

specialising in Australian mid-cap and emerging companies

Austock Research是一家专注于澳洲中等规模和新兴公司的专业独立研究机构

Austock Trader’s book 交易员手册

19

Broker Services 经纪服务

Managed

Portfolios

Options

Strategies

International

Equities Dealing

Margin Lending

Facilities

21

Austock Securities Limited

Xiaoming Huang 黄小茗 Client Adviser, Equities & Derivatives

Phone 03 8601 2088 Austock Securities Limited

Level 12, 15 William Street

Melbourne VIC 3000

www.austock.com

Disclaimer

This presentation has been prepared solely for the information of the particular person to

whom it was supplied by Austock Securities Limited (“Austock”). Austock and its

associates within the meaning of Chapter 7 of the Corporations Act may hold securities in

the companies referred to in this presentation. Austock believes that the advice and

information herein is accurate and reliable, but no warranties of accuracy, reliability or

completeness are given (except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded).

No responsibility for any errors or omissions or any negligence is accepted by Austock or

any of its directors, employees or agents.