20171204先鋒週報 參院通過稅改 基本面支撐美股多頭

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參院通過稅改 基本面支撐美股多頭 2017/12/04 先鋒週報

Transcript of 20171204先鋒週報 參院通過稅改 基本面支撐美股多頭

  1. 1. 2 0 1 7 / 12 /0 4
  2. 2. 0.25 (0.18) (0.27) (0.29) (0.63) (0.66) (0.67) (0.70) (0.75) (0.77) (1) 0 1 2.0 (5.5) 0.6 (8) (6) (4) (2) 0 2 4 6 : Bloomberg 2017/12/3 (%) (bp) 2.362 0.035 0.305 1
  3. 3. (%) (bp) (bp) (bp) 2.97 265 236 6.15 367 335 4.64 245 238 3.76 159 155 % % 2.96 6.21 3.74 4.73 : Bloomberg 2017/11/12 2
  4. 4. (0.5) (0.6) (1.2) (1.3) (2.8) (3.1) (3.3) (3.4) 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 (1.4) (2.4) (4) (3) (2) (1) 0 1 2 3 4 : Bloomberg 2017/12/3 MSCI MSCI (%) 3
  5. 5. : Bloomberg 2017/12/3 ==225= (%) 3.1 2.6 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 (0.7) (0.9) (1.1) (1.4) (1.4) (1.4) (1.5) (1.5) (1.9) (2.1) (2.3) (2.5) (2.6) (2.7) (2.7) (2.8) (2.9) (3.9) (5.0) (3.0) (1.0) 1.0 3.0 5.0 4
  6. 6. (3.1%) (2.6%) (-3.9%) 5
  7. 7. Bloomberg 6
  8. 8. ()Bloomberg : 2017/12/3 () 7
  9. 9. ()Bloomberg : 2017/12/3 () 8
  10. 10. (0.6) (1.0) (0.8) (2.4) 3.0 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.3) (0.4) (0.6) (0.8) (0.8) (4) (2) 0 2 4 CRB : Bloomberg 2017/12/3 (%) $1.1896 112.17 92.89 $58.36 $1280.50 9 $64.46
  11. 11. : Bloomberg 10 11/27 () 10 68.5 62.4 66.7 11/28 () 11 129.5 123.5 125.9 10 -0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 11/29 () 10 8.8% - 8.9% CPI 11 1.5% - 1.4% GDP 3.3% 3.2% 3.0% 11/30 () , PMI 11 51.8 51.5 51.6 10 0.3% 0.2% 1% 10 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 12/1 () , , GDP 3.8% 3.6% 3.6% CPI 10 0.2% 0.2% 0.7% PMI 11 50.8 51 51 MarkitPMI 11 62.5 - 62.5 MarkitPMI 11 60.1 - 60 ISM 11 58.2 58.3 58.7 10 1.4% 0.5% 0.3%
  12. 12. 12/4 () () 10 - -1.2% 10 -0.4% 1.4% 12/5 () 10 -$45.4b -$43.5b GDP () 3 2.5% 2.5% PMI 11 - 51.2 PMI 11 - 51.0 12/6 () ADP 11 190k 235k 10 -0.1% 1.0% 12/7 () 10 1.0% -1.6% 12/8 () 11 210k 261k 11 4.1% 4.1% () 12 98.9 98.5 10 - 0.7% 11 5.1% 6.9% 11 12.0% 17.2% GDP 3 1.5% 1.4% : Bloomberg 11
  13. 13. 12 5149 12/8 12/22 12/4 12/7-12/9 12/5 (1.5%) 12/6 (6.0%) 12/6 (1.0%) 12/6~12/7 (27.0%)
  14. 14. 13
  15. 15. Fed ECBQE OPEC 14
  16. 16. 15
  17. 17. (%) MSCI 2040.25 -0.26 0.60 5.29 7.78 16.50 20.23 2582.30 -0.21 1.14 5.77 8.01 15.34 19.31 1475.28 -1.31 -1.82 7.35 6.69 8.71 15.04 388.69 -1.86 -0.70 4.45 -1.75 7.55 15.17 291.11 -2.03 -1.17 4.59 -0.17 13.14 20.81 225 22681.42 0.63 6.76 14.47 13.59 18.16 29.99 6779.14 -2.46 -1.93 5.43 14.76 29.30 48.29 3432.67 1.81 1.24 6.99 11.32 10.60 7.40 MSCI 1128.49 0.21 0.23 8.22 12.58 30.87 32.90 MSCI 579.47 0.28 2.17 10.90 16.77 38.31 37.05 MSCI 333.91 1.99 -1.30 5.82 6.96 12.44 25.76 MSCI 2755.47 -0.62 -7.08 0.02 1.39 17.72 24.91 MSCI 269.20 0.52 -3.05 2.26 2.74 9.98 20.19 Bloomberg 126.06 -0.29 -0.15 -0.53 1.21 2.03 0.81 Bloomberg 140.32 -0.27 0.63 0.61 1.61 2.04 1.99 Bloomberg 150.98 -0.70 -0.32 0.37 3.09 5.08 4.59 Bloomberg 174.11 -0.63 -0.62 1.19 3.87 8.73 10.40 Bloomberg 181.68 -0.75 -0.61 1.21 2.61 7.01 9.34 Bloomberg 183.41 -0.67 0.45 1.33 2.91 5.92 7.26 ETF 51.74 0.25 0.56 4.04 6.13 13.34 15.23 Bloomberg 167.98 -0.66 -0.47 1.10 3.12 8.00 7.97 Bloomberg 131.13 -0.18 -0.91 -0.48 3.33 7.02 3.69 Bloomberg 172.41 -0.77 -0.64 0.36 3.15 7.74 5.31 Bloomberg 2017/11/12 16
  18. 18. (%) () MSCI 216.40 1.10 2.72 10.60 6.25 -1.18 8.16 MSCI 270.08 -0.50 1.19 9.14 14.61 21.72 24.09 MSCI 121.18 -1.27 -0.48 3.85 8.95 14.13 20.82 MSCI 227.20 -0.08 0.54 3.78 5.08 15.66 19.50 MSCI 228.18 1.05 -1.28 -0.13 0.72 9.95 12.36 MSCI 251.73 -1.03 -0.25 5.60 8.34 18.47 20.27 MSCI 220.82 0.08 5.19 12.75 16.41 36.96 40.19 MSCI 67.01 -0.91 -3.39 -4.69 -3.06 -3.62 4.01 MSCI 132.26 0.20 1.00 1.00 6.79 15.05 20.22 MSCI 222.05 -0.89 -2.55 2.24 3.79 15.16 13.21 NBI 3270.52 -1.50 -7.10 1.84 6.71 17.95 8.57 AMEX 187.04 0.54 -7.76 -5.49 -5.13 2.59 3.80 REITs FTSE 17486.83 2.70 1.48 5.90 8.57 9.88 17.96 REITs FTSE 2008.15 2.36 0.04 4.30 6.37 4.31 11.52 REITs FTSE 1358.59 -0.27 0.48 2.83 -4.49 2.84 10.93 REITs FTSE 1769.93 2.04 1.65 0.14 2.47 5.80 7.85 (/) 1275.47 0.45 -2.23 -1.08 3.85 10.69 3.88 (/) 16.88 0.24 -2.91 -0.98 1.69 6.19 -0.12 (/) 6786.00 -1.58 0.38 5.65 23.37 22.59 21.16 (/) 63.52 2.34 11.30 22.13 25.16 11.99 42.19 (/) 56.74 1.98 10.52 16.47 18.85 5.85 30.98 CRB 191.65 1.20 3.69 6.70 5.48 -0.45 4.53 817.11 0.34 0.89 -0.02 -1.99 -2.84 -2.54 Bloomberg 2017/11/12 17
  19. 19. (%) 1.1665 0.49 -1.46 -1.13 6.12 10.74 8.48 113.53 0.47 -1.61 -3.54 0.12 2.91 -4.60 1.3196 0.91 -1.24 1.20 1.74 6.32 5.04 0.9961 0.46 -2.27 -2.52 -0.05 2.20 0.10 1.2682 0.64 -1.79 0.21 7.39 5.88 6.79 0.7661 0.14 -3.04 -2.61 3.16 6.09 1.23 1116.99 -0.29 0.75 1.72 0.27 7.61 4.55 30.1720 0.09 0.57 0.47 0.29 7.14 4.73 6.6409 -0.03 -1.00 0.09 3.95 4.58 2.48 13543.00 -0.33 -0.23 -1.55 -1.36 -0.52 -2.99 65.1663 -0.96 0.18 -1.67 -0.83 4.23 2.24 33.1150 0.18 -0.20 0.41 4.32 8.20 7.15 1.3602 0.34 -0.93 0.07 2.67 6.24 3.90 4.1918 1.06 0.61 2.31 3.15 6.90 3.19 51.2530 -0.14 0.43 -0.94 -2.52 -3.23 -4.93 14.3773 -1.08 -7.90 -7.51 -8.48 -4.62 0.18 3.8644 0.59 -5.98 -8.80 -8.22 -8.86 -14.90 59.1593 -0.17 -3.25 1.07 -4.89 3.83 11.36 3.6227 0.93 -0.97 0.25 5.43 15.43 13.56 267.11 0.24 -2.59 -3.52 5.16 9.98 8.15 3.9961 -0.97 -2.76 -2.68 3.94 8.12 5.44 3.2837 0.91 -3.15 -3.28 -3.54 -0.87 3.33 19.1017 0.53 -1.03 -7.00 -2.12 8.48 8.29 17.4970 0.84 -0.42 1.23 -11.35 -9.24 -14.03 Bloomberg 2017/11/12 18
  20. 20. (%) () (bp) 30 2.8797 6.7 7.5 9.4 -10.9 -18.5 -5.5 10 2.3984 6.6 12.5 21.0 7.3 -4.6 24.8 0.0430 -1.2 -2.1 -2.0 -0.4 -0.3 6.5 0.4100 4.6 -3.2 -0.5 -1.2 20.2 13.6 0.7790 2.6 6.2 6.7 -6.7 9.3 10.1 1.8460 5.4 -28.1 -18.9 -40.4 3.1 -5.1 1.5760 10.2 -11.9 11.8 -3.0 19.2 18.6 2.0590 -0.9 -33.3 -80.9 -133.7 -170.5 -133.8 3.3740 -8.9 -9.2 -3.1 -4.3 -25.9 5.0 12.2800 3.0 89.0 149.0 167.0 89.0 167.0 7.7226 5.5 7.4 -8.6 -6.7 -73.7 -107.8 2.2700 -13.0 -46.0 -82.0 -83.0 -89.0 -106.0 9.3570 8.0 67.6 75.2 61.2 43.3 32.3 10.1920 3.4 45.2 9.4 3.3 -120.9 -178.3 7.2630 1.0 10.6 38.5 -2.0 -17.3 17.5 2.5700 3.8 15.3 25.5 27.0 47.8 73.5 6.6620 2.0 9.8 -23.5 -47.4 -131.1 -122.7 * 6.9310 7.3 19.0 43.7 -1.2 41.6 27.0 2.3420 4.3 6.0 -2.8 -40.1 -30.7 9.0 : Bloomberg 2017/11/12 * 19
  21. 21. 2008 2014 -26.69% -5.61% -36.09% -7.28% -20.81% -- -18.82% -5.58% -21.11% -12.76% -9.52% -5.56% Bloomberg() 2017/10/30 % 20
  22. 22. 106022 (02)7708-8888 407225F-1 (04)3700-7988 360171 (07)972-1188 39 21