2011/09/16

Inflation Expectations on the Rise: PBOC Survey

Presenters: 邱阿婵 0903012302 张冬金 0903012315 商 露 071011109

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2011-09/16/content_13712949.htm

Inflation expectations among Chinese households for the next quarter have raised, despite an August decline in the year-on-year growth of the country's consumer price index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation. That's according to a central bank survey released on Thursday.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC), the country's central bank, said in a statement that "expectations of future price rises remain strong". On Monday it said it will continue to make price stabilization a priority as inflation remains white-hot.

The PBOC will maintain its anti-inflationary bias until it feels comfortable with the month-on-month momentum of CPI, said Chang Jian, a China economist with Barclays Bank Plc. "It needs to see a clear downward trend.“

"On the other hand, in view of the expected slowing domestic economy, easing inflation and rapidly deteriorating external growth outlook.

We expect some 'selective' or 'targeted' easing in the months ahead rather than interest rate hikes, although we do not expect an official switch of the policy bias in the near term," said Chang.

A separate survey showed that 50.6 percent of 5,000 entrepreneurs expect rates to be "relatively high" in the fourth quarter, 6.1 percentage points higher than in the previous quarterly survey.

WORDS AND EXPRESSIONS

consumer price index: 消费者物价指数

eg; They're both deflated by the Consumer Price Index or, in the case of the UK, the Retail Price Index to give us a real home price.

a main gauge of : 一个主要指标

eg : The development of Software industry has become the main staff gauge that measures level of modernization of a country.

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

white-hot: 狂热的 ;( 金属 ) 白热的

Her soul is under the white-hot sadness and jealousy.

interest rate hikes: 加息

President Barack Obama has told the US credit card industry to scrap unfair interest rate hikes and to be more transparent and accountable.

entrepreneurs 企业家 , 承包人

Young entrepreneurs have proved the old adage: ''when life hands you lemons, make lemonade.''

Background

通货膨胀（ Inflation ）指

在纸币流通条件下，因

货币供给大于货币实际需

求，也即现实购买力大于

产出供给，导致货币贬值，而引起的一段时间

内物价持续而普遍地上涨现象。其实质是社会

总需求大于社会总供给 （供远小于求）。

消极影响：

　　①对经济发展的影响。通货膨胀的物价上涨，使价格信号失真，使产业结构和经济结构发生畸形，从而导致整个国民经济的比例失调。

② 对收入分配的影响。货币贬值，使一些收入较低的居民的生活水平不断下降，使广大的居民生活水平难以提高。

③ 对对外经济关系的影响。通货膨胀会降低本国产品的出口竞争能力。引起黄金外汇储备的外流，从而使汇率贬值 。

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