2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
Transcript of 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
1/40
H U LDHP DM NO:
GH FOM MOM LY
aua 2011 (v p 201)
B Ba oo f of aval Opao tatg t Gop
Ppa fo: Of o t mt Of o h ta of Df
The views expressed in ths eprt are thse f the autor and d t reflect the fficia view,
pliy, r piti f te Deprtmet f efee r the Uited Stte Gverment.
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
2/40
[H P NOLL LF BLK]
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
3/40
to touto
to 2 Pzzl
BL OF ON
to latv Mtoolog
to Log o Movm Patt al
to to Ma Mvv a h Pa Pu)
to 6 ompx ahp
to - am of wo hat Wor
to a Do Pf
to ompat a t 202 Wat
to 0 Ba o h Pzzl
to 1 oato o U to
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
4/40
[H P NOLL LF BLK]
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
5/40
H UN LDHP DM NO:
GH FOM MOM LY
by
Bed oo,
e v Opeto te tue Gou
Jay 2011 (eve p 2011)
T pa pou a at o th BDY LA pjt o th at t
G apl nnvba ol pa vnt ttn Aa t h
t o uuua a ova pw-ha ant ontpoa
a ua a oal a wo ow law t a wa om
cqnta an a aj ta ct Ut tat lc thuh th t
lauch n It put o th Ut tat Gvt t uta wat
a th ht lvl Mcw an hw th actvt mpac Aca ntt
a cc
onvntonal a tt at lah ntal an tv a
ptca a Raa o tt at a t a p tcal
p wh obv bt o a a ava atala
hap b a ma ct an b th ccuv uch th
oato at b lan o th b c A a upt an otv
to th t tcq th ana o vb ata pov valuabl po t
u pto a a ba o oat vlopmt
2
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
6/40
e zzle
R h b ru lt thr. r b urcd tw-h
ledrhp te c refee t e tde ece ld ut, he
ctv pplr, cr dcrtc pd nc. 2000, w.
cttll bl t rv th ccutve tr d nwl t puh r
nd t l ft th ct h dced t tp dw f th prdc t
thrw h prt n th lctn Mch 200 t tr Mdvdv, prt tht
r h jr tht w Pt ptc c l nd hd th tt
ppr ed t dpl Mvv cft b the ctr w
frene ccn; h truphed wth v 70 perent f e tt vt d w
red tht M
Wh w tctve but the trfe pwe w t l the pcpt
prt f Medvedev creer fctr wh h neve f ffice nt l th, but
tht h tr Pt ch t t prt th c d d rd t th p
trh, e cndrk pt n the ctv brnch d the pltcl
t Nl l . cutr wth ppulrl lct prnt . fc f hd
v, t t ll r "prdtl ch vt rr
pt nuc t tht f ed f Th w th tt R whe
r Ylt w pnt th d wh Pt r upr r 200 t
200 e kw h v tp-trv b trck btwee Pt
Mdvdv wu wrk pctc r whr t wuld tk Ru pltc d pl
pclt b hw w en l fct be eve be
T tadm i m i i i gli i bvr rii b hv ih vri ly o orslik or l adry sr r d drcy" or, , m my
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
7/40
the trato a alze At a fareell res cfeece tin di no atet t
conceal tat s relihi th rdn Medvedev u ve uie quaty" o
t, hch cons n the fact at yelf a redet fo eght years ad ddnt do a
b ob By ilicatio Medvedev a gog to be aog h etor had .
ut roed to gve s sccesor he leeay o ae redeta decons le
tg that "I natall y [l l ave the rght to ere y ie in ackoledged
tha dfereces of o gt co a lo a thrd arte ght try to drie
edge betee the A y ibe dfclte , e aured he ni, u be
fretlled by the ecelle rk elatoh, gog bck o jot ervce at S
eterbrg cit hall e 90 "Dmrii Anatolevc ad are e aae that atac
ll e ae alog ernl oltcal ad ecooc e ere l be edle ate
to d dfeence in r roace here e ly differece ave o y, bu
over our ore than ffee yeas of og ogeer e have goen used to l iteig o
each oer
tn hads th os of t as gad ovngt o h
otet, e a actve olcy eal uc a energy rei ecooc aar, an
fdral hc had consd rdntal nool t l t alo
reaed front ad cente ulc oltc, ag over te cir of he ited Rsa
rty hc h coadg tothd ory e Sae D) and
cocatng th e citizery hugh the a i and heay bczed tr of
the ovnce Mevede ook over e redent' ctituti reibty fr
dloacy enal seciy and la eoceent an ric ited th Pi sing
Prsidil r corc brry 1 200 ssi-l rscri //rlir/r/00/0/ 14/137_y6330y8634_16008hm
4
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
8/40
the esose to the globa economic ecession of 0 Moe nteestig ti a yea
o hs augaton the ce esde also od a btg ci tie o e ssa
stats qo ot l imtg msel to tadtoal foms ch as te anal esdental
adess to. aament e took adatage of e tet and oeed a deobog a a
T accot n "Go ussa a amblg ssay blshd a lbal o
esae Seembe 209, Medede assaled Rssas choc couto ad "legal
hlsm, "mte amateals ecoomy and technologcal backadess a
calle fo a semtoste "modeato of socety ad state hetocay e
ostoned himself a moe efomst lace tha Pme Mste Pti
As the dms hae tace e esecte oes they hae ha amost othg
o sstace o say abo tei eac iso of abo efeig olelae hases
abou mtal esect, coeaton and egla coslato No hae they oe moe
tha e od tdbt about the coitio of e esol eatos Medede and ti
seldom aea togee lc a stee clea of comet on oe anoe's o ey
hae bee tght-led aout ha ou ae e eatos soea gay oe
hee Meee bette eqed th omal eogate bt Pt osee
eomous fomal authty th e ete and the oulaton a cools the ug
aty, to boot A ey hae destee quetons abo the mendng fok n te oad
F mpl P h dcl h d Mdvdv s h m h p"yu (lgs t u i rch), wrs Mdvdv drss im wi th mr rml y (lk vous Fench) ppr th prsidt Ru e g ude he 93 cti t th me tepmpty Mdvdv d h wld b ig pcmnt cnn ye Se Dm he e se pme h dy mne by Ue Ruhseldr is tr ph c v ti wld hv h vt m t gml isd s prim mir , w rm Mdvdv s sdpi, wld hv prby gh hv Mdvdv impchd s prsidt
5
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
9/40
o a ' ol tc e eetal electon o 0 1 ; hey eea ad aeam tha e to
o them l dc the omnaton beoeha ad ave a a commo oton
Mch aot e a andem zzlg een to eaoed and ell-beed
aaly tn the moe amla ge havg ee n e l melgh nce el t
hm a h nd o t 19 Mdvdv qntly dmd a an mo o a
ll g accomlce a elaboate aade mang a t dctatoh "t hole
ne ment tt ha ad, "at n a conty th a edetal tadtn
hee the ceal oe a alay he eal oe ad no a bob, e have eded
th a eeeave lke omeone ho no dent a al l M n e
commentaa ho bete Medvedev ed tha tn ll dlace hm and et o
the Kem a edet oce Medvedev' em ee n 01 2 Aalyt ho ae moe
chtable to Medvedev te egage "tandemoogeag a lo to ymolc
evet ometme mte deece odg a oalty a e lke
t e to cte to moe obg ae by leadg cola o Ra d
ot-comm aa O o the by Geog ea a oltcal cett at e
vety o aa t Beeley, comb thogh Medvedev ad t' l
tatement ad ace thm n he cntet cycle o cage Svet a Ra
htoy hat to mae o the aae hamoy e betee the o cet?
Beae ae ocommittal "Mch dee e ve e e
Bi N i dpy pi mi ini itp:vobononic227998t Th ui-Aicn co NiKshea a geagandaghe ie leade ikia Khse has aasially eeed edede a "Ria dy.6Wehe ey like i n miy Medede and Vladmi Pi ae sk i ea e. . . . ey ogh al e [display] ad adpinig adegy Lk Medee i asseing imel!O y utin bck h jut ho hi o' bo!) ok t t i ogic, i i c any cocio. Bi Wio, oog " F, Jy O ; i inJonon' Rui i o tha date
6
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
10/40
elatosh betee the to ad ones ve o the gtde of the dffeeces ve
olcy He setches a fold tyology of th ossl tes ded by elatvely gh
a eatvely lo ocy ffeeces betee Put ad Medvedev o oe eson,
a a elatvey hgh a a elatvey lo e dffeetal betee the a send
Hs ages o the ossbtes ae endeed able 1
Table 1 Beslae s ages f e Put-Medvede Plcal Reats
Powe deetPy deee L
Hgh Pu tatv A Put cha
B
Lowntable cllectve leadeh tab cllcv ladh (D
Ce A, ee olcy dfeece ae lage but Medvedev s ot ca y
deedet on Pun Pt s cage ad ll lely scad o dongae Medveev
hen t suts h Ce B hee e e dfeetal s also geat but dffeees n
oo ae no Medvedev colanty do Pt s bddng " hs sceao
Medvedev ou be og ceta costtences th scee hetoc as a to of
Put o saes Put's esecves e hyotetca Ce C a o oe
dfeental (that s Medvedev avng olca esoces of s on) ad a de ga n
olcy ences gete cto a cofct th e tae, th the outco
deeet on the elatve stength o the as bases f sot ad the s
bzg assets And whe the oe ffeeta s. lo bu lcy dffeences a
7 eoe W. esaue "Rectios o Paten of Leaesip i oviet an PotSoviet [usian]iso Post-Sviet Afair 6 Jpt 2010) 234; ottios t fo 2970"Poe iffeeti i tis ne is efie s ee Mevev i epenent on utin poitic hiifi o cs his o o ifnti
7
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
11/40
sleder as Cell D the resl u be stable leadrsh dut sch tme
Bresae d "a accmlatn cact em e bth eaes t try eze
the tatve by embrac cycal ly r t, ethe a remst r evanchs latrm
Bresaes eleat eve the sbt es ad rcumtces tha mht aect e
rbably n c ath matral, ccds hat rs sa
ee ab the rblem des t et rm ccluss t be dra e ll
jus hve t at ad ee
A nublhed ae by mthy C te arvard Uverty verment
Deartment cmmssed by me r S es ver mch the ame nd,
devt rther mre attet t Medvedev mtvas Mk use the e
recrd the Msc m mll ad ccess t Pt ad Medvedev thrh the aal
sesss e vemet-snse Valda Dscuss Club, Cltn cses n e
ul betee rds and eedsbeteen the ardety remst vls Pesdet
Medvedev ad the t mdty e mrvemet actl ly ndertaken ke Beslauer ad
mst clse atchers te uss scee, Cltn ccedes tha a e chanes ave take
ace nstace uld clde Medvedevs dmsl me ach-cservatve cl
(uch a ur kv, th vtra mayr Msc Smb 2) rmtn
techcrt bessme t t here ut redent ved veterns
the secry ervces h uch crtcm the Slnst t leslt t end the
retrl etentn vuas acced ecnmc cme me acke the
dmsatve ressre n stn artes mvemets, ad NOs creatn a
hh-technly brtry tn Skkv) tde Mc Neees Cl s
Ibi. Ti J n, S p nig Mv n i, Jnu
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
12/40
t tuc by dy btw dt dcn ad the ng gl lted
th eident' chyg l ly d dvdv nttv t
hv eteed t b tyd by buuctc nd nc And
nt dc v. bn bg cnt d cy cc t
ut wuld hv chwd d 0
T cc f cntdct betee wd d dd l dvc v
vl hyth hy ld t bl 2
Tbl 2 t vl ytheses t G betee Medvedevs Retic d
Actn T
Hhei upton
Incy dvdv d t lv h dd th t d lvl
igtigt Algh Medvedev y be c h w lctd lt cll
h w
h ncbl dlv
n ny p
.
cn dvdv tic digd t tt l tc dt dcntn d l ptue th Pt p w
ut dvdv guly w cl hy thwtd by ld-chl Pt.
dvdv a Pt agree the eed cge but w it tc t ly ll, gb d
I lt' dgn, dvdv y y t lv wn tcth
degree f h cty d deth f ndestndng nnwn n th Inncy
cn, d Ftt c, he eide lcg bth hety d
A in poin i h iil o Lukov i un' lion ih h o l tin, going k to tggl o oi Yti in t lt 190. Lkov plSg Sobin, i o losl i to i o Mvv n sv s hi o o i oht pintil inisio n t pi ii hn. pl o sti initiiv ob lk o oloup to h iqu io th it o Sgi Mgnitkii h Moo to o goup of invo o i i n pion i ovb 00. Af ii, Mvv o oi po ooug vi, bu lil pp i h
9
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
13/40
udrtanding; th ghtwght vio hi coint ar a but hazy; n
ns d avr chang ny wth tht us b or
uthatng nhud chg t cctbl to poor Pt t i t
g s. hypoth n varyng way ncty and gtwgt
hypoth, h tnd th curt tuat, havg lctd oa
cc wh cp o ngnng cg I th tt ypoth
ut p chng dvdv wh t nstt wg th Scn d
ns ypoth tn w b dvdv ' ccpt wrkng wth i
th t bt t c t t bby tp
O pnc t tk n tht nw th h gnt tht thy
t prct ly n Akd but h allgd jb v--vs tn a tvw
wt F o NN Stb 209, t vv pot s h
ha bor, that had away coidrd hs a br Pt ' ta ad that th
tw. ttdd th . w co a nga t St tbg) S Uvty
bi or a dcad aat Bt r wa or to t toy, aid:
I th u vct vy clo B yu tk bt ct kd
c, bo pnchant, , s, th ca b dititio I hv y
convc nd h hs Ov th c gt ys h [ut] hd th
chnc h cnvc nt c d y pnn h pt th nt
ct ccy h tc p n th n dntc
ldr
t s gsc b wh th nnc pncht ght
wh wd prvail thr dic wr to calat I though hi jdgnt i
At ://kmi/tt/551
0
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
14/40
tha dic wl l b coaind ad tin wi coti to av th advaag, baig
ci that to boad contt o high oitc i Blau h ag that
only i wil l th a
n latv Mtoolog
T pi o D LAD i at clo attto to nonvbal igalto
th pyica ovnt bod and t pt, a ditict o ch yld
iight ito bhavo o vial, cluig o pnt po political a
I uch cnt ach ad i th pt ay, th i tool ploy ov
att Aay PA a tchu that vlv bt 930 a 960 a a
ul o ygy btw two oudg figs h. bil li Hngaa choogah
dol Laban, who atd th ll llig with a yt o notating dc ;
b a ivtiv Bi tih aagnt coltant wo oud applicatio o th
volvg thod i dty ad whit-colla oic wok PA ad ch
ovbal/ov ay gal pot tha th tuy o boi ly ov gv
th aalyt owi uvailab oaton about t an o woa bnath th k
A ab collaboato, aolLyn oo p it, oally vbl oght
ad g co pcptibl a thy a a o in ovt O cou ay
tha ov. tanlcnt wap o lo in ood ad inttio a
pgnt thoug whch g o th ov i pc ay b s
In earlie resea pae y Lea elated speeh t min ae he veet baelne aetablihed. is press was nderake in the edbiiy vlitin tdy ad in leade pe eie tlevl ctiue n picl pc Car-yne Mre M a Mak Dc:. Th y-M c h Wkcw c Mn r 2005, 60
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
15/40
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
16/40
PA cocptazs pop akig dcsos n th sqta stags ah
l kd to tta body pssions At vy sag th s ai o ovchg wys
wch dcso pocss s ppoachd h ASSERTVE ppoach th o acta
ptl h tw t d wth plyg t nd gy t th pc
occ PERSECV s o statgc otloo ad has o do wth ostong onsl
shpg ot to chv th s slt h cobato o th
tag nd th tw gl d yld s ct tvatns altgh S b 3
o y o th typ
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
17/40
Th Log o Movnt Patn alss
Tabl Th Lgic f Mvnt att aly
Dson sg to tatnSSERVE PSECVE
Ivs i
a
Ex
l
Makg th t b ca aig ppctiv by civgd lify ifatin wii a c valabl ncvingpcbd aa ncpag g
Aendngcpv t iati ay a
Ouc yatic ach Otc: dcvgtablihing thd dig altnativ w apachtadad
Di
Evalua
Makg th t a aing ppctiv by civgp uild lv g lativ iptc wighg cnvici jutify i tnt idat d ig
Intnding p t i
Ouc pitig aga Otc: clty ittidicul dd ianc cytallzati f i asu
i
i
Makg th ing ppciv by civg
iplntati t adjt th dvlpig tag f actnt--t t ig and g th cqc
Comng cti ac tg
Ouc alt t tcc ad Otc: ttg gal aingti piti pptu g, and pating lilnttin
T it M tag i nwn th ATTENDIG ha t. bdy'
v int tw pl iiy cidati ad tcig f pbl at
hand I th individa vi cu ativly th ctly ndictly t
hizal plan tiva cnid t b f IVSTIA. In
4
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
18/40
ivtgatig h o cioly a a pobl by oig dctly o caig
ad cagozig idictly f pctv ath tha astio is doat apoach
th otvatio s o o XR wch volvs saching out w da ad
altatvs. aong a boa gat o ioatio s th. oth two phass A
aaysts hav obvd a consnt colatio btwn physical ov ad th
ta activt o dci aing Ivtgating qi caacity to tiliz sac
ffo vaying th focus bwn dictig (wth its p ipotig a obig qalit) a
iicting wth ts scang ad scutiing qaty xploig qui th ailiy
to hap th oonta pa vayg os latiohp o th filds of availab
ioatio b closing gaig in idas fo vty o socs and spadg
(aing oslf o to a ag of viw)
idat dcson tag in th PA l ico s h phas th
bdg btw nit ial coplatio and taing aco spon to th dignatd
pol I Ri o asso ivua blds. solv to s
th i c olton to pocd Ts s dipayd pyical ly ovt in th
vtcal pa xpd th a lght o dcad psu. pwa o a tog
icasd p dowwad to ast oc o soal wght ltatvy, in
AAT und pcv h indivdal tabiss th latv poac h
action and as ss o o av a alstic sn f poiis and a ca
pspctiv T body gins pctv o pol by iig in th vcal pla to
loo a iu ov o to ay o by dcndig to ptat bah ufac o gt a
dnt o popoo
i, 8
15
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
19/40
T thid and clmating M tag i COMI, which th
implmttio c o dciio poc ommiting i aot chooing igh
momnt o ct and siig oppotnt to ag t tion and dliv lt t cntal ly
ivov ith TIMI o AIPATI T tiv vaa ting ntil magig
th pac of lntaton lctig oppot ont to pocd It chod
phyiclly acclatio o dclaton o cyclg ovt th gittal pa
pctvointd aticiatg volv tatgca coollig th ongoig po of
timg ach dcion tag to ach long obctv and avoi ngaiv
coqc I Moo wod hi ui th ab ili y to ap gial pl
cotol lg th poynt o ctio y tating tpoail y wthdwing fo ttgic
ao) ad advacg ocig wh a avnu o fowad oto bcom
op)'
hn mb and hi col lag hav aplid M to cooat xctiv, y
omally da an i tvw of two ho wh iiv iua on copay pmi
ywh fom o ndd to sval nd GM w ll b dcd i th typcal
i tviw lv ad on vdotap th a codd ad th cod y th alyt og a
mb of ax of mat lad to t p gy, pac h otl
o ubjct' M potait fod by timat of th latv occc dvotd to
th vaou cod ak T m to cnt ad may b pt a
tng th intit o th po bavioal vm pcif gt
o th dciio oc
o poltcal g th logc dntcal, athogh implmttio will vy
bca a ogn lad caot bjctd to a t-dow viw o tm by th
id,
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
20/40
aalyt 18 a poxy M exploit video ecoig of the taema beig iteviewed
deliveing peeche conveg wh bodte. an ellow leae a pe
confeece o anweing joali' quetio, and o o The am i te amet ift
ytemac mvemet cle. abut inate educible. decio poclive Sdyig a
lad' PM i coxt iddld with hig t wch mo tycal of t dco
eviome eouly tae into coideatio
o M h a
Fo the andem i owe i the ian Fedeaton we ae foae to ave MP
wokp o bo o the executed oBODY LA b the M pioee ae Lamb
am analyzed Medvedev in e pigumme of 2 a he etled io i ew
poition baig i on video o him i acton fom le comled at the SNC uin
wa tded y am in - o the pojec an hi MP wa eviewed o ae
tability at thi ime ab ad en coepoded at leng about hi findig M
coe chat fo Medvedev and Pti ae epodced a Table ad idicato
onded of o the eaet pece w ll tat y expl icaig e coe fomatio aot
each dvidal acton motivaio
medlgicl diici Bdy Led ha ug o dy leader in high e ce he poect'incpin MA md iv ion ignu icid m n inviw in whiccndiio uppr he nrl eiciin e idivil veme. i pec merenwill b fuh f ok
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
21/40
Tbl : MA Pofil o Mdvd
Dison stagcton otato
ERVE- 55 PERV- 5A dig- 5 Iv g ig- 5 xoig- 1
Id 4 Dti- vlti 2Comittig 5 im 30% A iit 1
Dyamis 8 (o l of 1 1
Eitd by n mb, Mytb 28
f l p cpt mt ii Mdvv ppoch to dcion l
), i i Acto Ma. n t o th th of dcion i, i motivt o
toly to comin to ctio whic ccont fo pct of Mdvv M
cod by mb Id o bildn ppo, i lttl l poit hi pof
with co on tht coot of pct y f th o ctd of th th
t fo Mdvdv i t fit tti, o piy whin d ly of th
pobl cooti Attd occp hi 1 5 ct of tim 19 A
bw tiv pod to th mo contpltiv pctiv o,
Mdvdv b bi owd th o h i ymty i pcly vdnt
i th committi t wh Mdvv xpnd ot twic mc fot o tim
thn o nticipin o-t coqc nd tdin owd ltimt ol A b
d con th mov vidc Mdvdv i c li o z p ituto ucly
d o do o blc wt tm hn btl hd o y wid-ld
pc of wh hi opod i ittv wil l iv i to ubttivly my b of l itt l
i rla o o hr h Medvedev abiliy o mo ao in a ngrad way el o spa slow. ha capaciy i syonyos beavioaly wh os ad anss o oron. has said pad ov s o to wok a ha o th uian uii commiio bca h wolda od s dald admiive wok borin See Maina ikoay a Svandize DmiriyMdvdv Gog a ounry k ussa s Aways Gog To Trckr Than Ohr onrsransa by https://www.opensouce.gov/port lserver/pt/g ew y, w Book Cs Mdd o asf, aw, oracy , Slovk p
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
22/40
concous itst o hi d h w s justictin o wt h poots s cg
oly tospctivy, oc h h c
It i notbl tht Mdvdv hisl h d to so o th qliti
itviw wth . joli Nioli vidz. i l 08 . cod tht h tds to
li n t t: "I on ovly hh n y jdgt Uot, s
i th cs d it oti co ot tty sply It i d o to stuggl with
ths lo votd tht h p to g ow to ing coics witho ly
"O ny vydy qtos, h sid to Svnd, I v lwys d dcos
qicy And, spg ly, I hv lot v i t I s jt tht I
udstd tht o t dcsio, wi ll d xpnding xt t o t
i s Ad onc I hv d dcio, I cy t o itly d lot v
goi ov wt hv o L i ho
Nikoi Min S, Mdd (S. bug A, 208, 3
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
23/40
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
24/40
two o thee tes moe requetly than in ssertive ode Fo tin evalating and
icitig ctivty oveshadows deteriig an ting activty; for Mdvedev
detering s vileg as ofen s evalating a tmg s vileged ove
tctig
O ovrall crtrio o whic ut and Mdvdv a faiy siar is i trs
o YA wch Lb and his grou defe as the nmbe o sultaeos nvel or
orotie cycles of esio a indivdual will ie ad cotie O a scale of 1
to cotructed b cotg the nmbe o sultaeo efort hae chges the
iivua akes) Put scores 7 Medvedev regse 8 o of . Medvedev s sghtly
hghe th Puti s city to ndetke siml teous novel decsios
Te MPA ethoology ots some cocluios at vriance wi the
covetiol wisdo abut the Russian duvrs It is Mevedev not Pti who s
argial ly e oe dyic of e two ad the ore roficiet at suig ulti le
ssgmes a the same time Put i s the moe. gitive ad strtegic eber the.
do e is ardwred to ae order to ga ersectve o his geda Desite hs
iage as n uthoritri strog hs agge of e body imlies at he. ees
ch ore energy o strtegig than he does o strgrmig Puti ersistetly
ostoes gettig on the sloe t action he dager tht e ay be excessivel
dssed t cllect rocss store iftio a ay we ff metay raer
tha focus o the ractcl choice set or eae t as talked off an on sie
2000 about the eed to ruce corutio in Rssia s reset rie in istr
evereless he has don l it le cocretely to make hedway towa is goal
MoreMo and Mkig Dsios, 90.
2
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
25/40
Mdvdv oft picturd s wk udrlig o utis is i fct th or
ction-d of th tw H pus uch o rgy thn uti to coiting os of
wc flows to tccly-l ting chocs Mddv s n so wys or
rict of Wst coport xcutv . o tyicl o st h. is
otv o bgi g dcsos by cottg t ction bsd on
pltto of is blfs nd ports s pnc s to gt hold of soig h
vl d gt rght dow to dong t
T fl sid of ts chrctrstc s t Mdvdv is gv to ovng wi tot
gnrl stgic dsign in nd His spcs d rocs ofn lck intllctl
dpth spccs bot ow hs rogr ght co ou i prctc strtgc
vsio s to ow th rts fit togr d th sqc in whc y ight fold
Concrng ction otcos h ss or ftd cig th o contt o n
rlzl tgts His sttts sotis cotn grig contdictios In Go
Rssi! ifso for xl Mdvdv lntd Rsss ddcy o gy
xtrcton b sd fs vctor o cooc odnto sould bou
rkng Rus nto o o th ldng cou i ficicy of produco
trnsporttion nd s o nrgy O occson Mddv y gi o dvlop n
clsiv dsig only tr s cotd to oly His hsy dciso to rcog
Soth Osst nd Abkhi Moscow-rotcd clvs i og s sovrgn
stts i Agust 20 oly two ws tr Russs wr w org i l luss hs
tdcy
22
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
26/40
oplex Ptep
Put . h. Ply ad Mvv h cto Ma sml hum
bngs Poltclly on ows hs poso tly to t oth, stablshd nto
ld . dlay md. h ovm ga Ital pom.
alyss y BDY AS o apaanc a Mdvdv' s swag- cony May
200 ndcad tha whl Mdvdv wa kg to og had o h ow h d o
wth a act dg o atal pct d dc to o m 3 H ltally l l
back nto whnv Pt dgd aad th two pntd hlv n
combnton o th wol aumpo tha Pt t h p ad n t o
aw pow and andng wthn th tad
e o wo ok
Tat, owv s ot by a log shot th only ln n stoy, as acd by MP It
hold ot dtct om no nsghat any way Pun and Mdvdv m a
copleay and qt coatbl
ldsp t n lay look
t Pt ovnt att 204
Wn ab d tat d o
Pun low comg ncton "
bn o td ad who
i i by npgi T H Th Hidn Dmio (Nw Duby2 udy h u p d din n pp h n iy n piy in bi i inn n hi
2
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
27/40
comlm hi m i coagig wo og owa mmao ad ca
oaioal wok nviomn hi am i a fc dscio o
Mdvdv who a h i wa evng a u' mli chif of saff am
conjcud n 0 wh h viid Pis ofl n mo dail ad xami
Mdvdvs fo h is m ha P was aacd o Mdvdv bca Mdvdv i
a og ac of mlmao whch Pui s o Mdvdv fo hs a has ad
u blic ly f hi xm a da wic Mdvdv lans owad skiig
ov 2
Tandem Decisio Prefeeces
O mau of goon. o i mg if w avag civ. gh d
wanss of h id and m mi bwn h fi and cod colu of
Tabls 4 and 5 Th cobid fcs vn o ah icy wh ach ma
comng fo ohs dc i h andg cgoy (fo Mdvdv d
commg (fo un h do o df makdly ndg cagoy ogh
hy ddica 3 c o h os o andg ( 1 5 cn Mdvdv 45 n
Pun 375 cn o ndng 4 c Mdvdv 35 c n and 32
c o commg 45 cn Mvv 2 cn u As bw h av
(accal mod of aco and h cv (sagi hy a oly sghly basd
owd h cv mod (y 525 c o 475 cn Ths dibtio of n
4 Warrn Lab ora o rna Conor, eeme 005 Mvv sai o i nr Yo now w sc ir wa is eilou ai warsinin and ow is o iigat o os hoogh dgr vy pob a h om acoss ad ame across vn i eriod d how he ake deiio oy on ai o h a omlex adovrarchig anaysis i h i vry iporan for any ar an vn or o or a prsi Anee r is soing or n pp ro rsn uin." S Lio Barbr, FilT nrviw wih iri Mvv, Mach 008.
24
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
28/40
otivato sts vhadd sctv on y oliticl agdovidd at
th dcio nc lly shd h balanc is sca vdt a th.
itdg sag, w in, ansid y s i o oaton, is oy ha as
otivatd as. Mdvdv o g o th. lly l
h vg o Mdvdv ad tin i s ovdd by MPAs awok o
gaging th aty o ITRATJO btwn idividuas bls 6 and 7 covy h
xt to wch Mdvdv and Pti ull th ottal o HAI ad RIVA yl
o dciio ing
Ts asu dvd o ov obsvao ad th calculao o th
achig o coonc btw ot and h ov o hang o
satching o dssoanc o ot
d sha ovnts ivat
I shag styl th inividal
ls d o cay ot i ntatvs
with ad though o ol n
th ivt styl th dsi s to go
it alo I a so s ov consoanc s hig h 5 c o otial d
ov disonac is low than 5 cnt MA conds h o hi to hav
haig syl I aio a vd th indvidl i dd va i syl both
cononac ad donc co o a l h 5 c th dvidal claid
EU styl o at o th intctiol it itivs o oths abs sch
25
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
29/40
l pvds r t tyl SAE whc th dvdl wvs btw
hg prv cs
gn w wts gnct dcpcy mvmt l bw t
tw pcps tm Mvv bl 6) psnts hghy hrg xt n
tw th th ccl tg (ntdg nd cmtng t ttdg stg b
cm cs s tl d dsncld t ct th pvcy shg hs sg
stnct xcds s pvt nstct wh l nth cl th 50 pcnt m Mddvs
tlty t ut t tgs d ppty hg t th tw hlp
xpln hs utstl nctl cl btsZ
T 6 ctn Mdvdv a
Don tag S
tl Pvt ntlAtt Nutl 40 2%Id
Vtl 8% 55%Cmm
hr
7% 3%ntng
H
Esmtd b W mb Mytm 2008
T MPA t dmtt tn l 7) b tgly prv d
dpndnt-mdd d bby dsncl t h ds d cndcs w
th th dcs stgs ttndng d cmmttng ndd Put s th mst
prv-rgdng ld sdd v th w spn O AS lw tt
ly d lt t dcn pc h s t pt t b nlucd mc by nyt
6 Versaile inerain is reed wen b sa ad rivae are 55% r mre. Verie Inennwih edvedev al under mbines ai an prvae yle. he Vesaie iener i able t reenti r piin an invi ripra haig ith h im ablihig a agrp jint pps;as veratle enders are able preserve indepedee i deermiin an evalatin s tat te re ming an ntio i maad witut bing i by i th ppl7 In er reen w BODY LDS I ave e edvedevs inabiliy u hruh he relvaoing o hi a an y uy in viw a havio
26
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
30/40
preside of Rssia clde Te overbal evdenc aso sggests how wtever er
rlatios i th past Pti could hol gret influec ove the ifomtio pltform o th
curr-day tandm escially since Mevev hislf is so unotivatd to focs o he
ifomtio-gathig andig stag a all By caton Mvv cold b big
usd by u in o broadcst olicis at do mollify rml opponsas y of
charg
Tabl 7: Itrctio for tin b
Deon tage rig potal Pivt otl i
rivt 4% 9%Ied
Sin
% 35%Cmiig rivte 4% %
Idnyng - Meim
b) Estiate by We ab -; MaySeptmer
Itedg i th de of our re successve decision phses is of spa
itrst vis--vis itractio sinc it is r and ly r tht Mvdv d Pti ar
both peispose o operte though saring Medvedvs saring is scored at prcet
o the pottial l thog Pti s rtig is oticebly lower at ercent at this sg
is jus as otceably ess private moe shag-mide a anywhee else in h
potfolio Ts concrc is ontal fondato fr cooprtioor lso
coceivably for sess he mets o tis or that polcy optio aside ey may ot lways
fl comfortabl wth aroacg th dcsio procs p s i sch difft fasons
Yt this is th dciio a whr thy o hv t gratt propct for gttig
togthr
27
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
31/40
With gd to th gl MA at o ENTIFIG with o Pt ad
Mdvd a c o i coh h boto ow o abl 6 ad 7 dtyg
to th g o pontaiy idivid tai in th liohp with o
viot h ucy o vaitio o th -oud ot ow nd
gowingig o hap low dcat high iu o low idtiyg Mvv
ovt ti a hig aont o what i known in MP plnc hap low
aig h thuiticlly idtii gag wi oth Pti o in
idtiyg o ggg ith o oig ovt' ot
low i o bod o tid which d o k hi pctiv tghty
tuctd cotad igig apct togth i o Pt i ot ta padg
otwd H c di ctio bout whth a w to gt ivovd with o
pla and th 202 Washd
T copi o th. MdvdvPt php . coidb Ty a.
dnt pon with dnt t ad labi lit i A a ha cod i i
td ov th y th i o t on wy o
ay ld o do o h job ad th o t
on wy to cotit lahp
Fo th tag oit t Mocow tad
whi l dl pct o wtot i o h g
o oia to t pogaatc pc o
Mdvdv d ti dvg owa oit o
hi bt at last to ow av b tyi
28
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
32/40
r y rl gret Althugh Mdd h rid fct f th t
q h d t dct ddn r ricl cgcidrig rltiry chg t
h b lth t w ll -big f i t d cty i th t
i! xd h. iw i wy
N y tfd wth th rt t wc w ng y tl
bu th nd t rc th c chg i t lt cl yt d t
bu gg bck th dcrtc 1 N t cbl t t
rly th tt h di th ur t ut
W n gg t ru Hty d i ll -cidrd liticl h r
thn c i n tr d t gic cc nd ud i t brk
f c W c' rd cil bl ty r t fy f ctz f
th k y knd btrc try W h rigt t cric tb l f
n fr higet gl Chng wi ll c bt y wi ll tdy
wll-ccid t by t
Tr l it l i g Pt wuld fd bctb
Whn t c t dc ty wuld hglight bc. cltity f
th c' nc hy n n h th ndbl rqt f ud
dc g crd hi t nift trgth nd w td t ft
nr wth Mdd dit gihig hilf i ittig d ut n ttg
T tw cnrg hlthy i trt i tig d it i ciy thi tg thy
r bth thir t iterci I thr wrd ctry t ch yi i u d
brd grud fr ig tht th Mdd-Puti rtnrhi i bl
hlty d rdcti
29
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
33/40
Wll the team rean tact and past e elet year 01? Hee s wha
Medvedv sa t aara
I we ae talng ee abt respsble pl tcas wh represe a sge plt ca l
rcand Prm t and atral rprsnt a ngl ltcal cthn
mag sch dcss 20 2 r 2, w hav t l at th ra
stat Whe Jet s say a party taes a ecs whm t pt rwa
the pst pesde t bases t what ctn s pes perates n
hw vable e s whether e s capable wng T what happened whe
Vladmr Pt asweed s qest [ 2008]. he ms mdae dcatrs
le pplarty ratgs have be tae nt act S ar we have gd ratgs
Tats why we btedly wl l cme t agreeme beween rselves
Cntrary t wha may ave been wng ab e andem pedc at eer
pragmatsm and a erel sared beles wll eep te eam n haress 0 e
dds ar. tha ach w l l an pesent stttal rle . T. prsdental em as bee
elngated by csttal amendet t sx yes sartng n 202 and s e tade
ma wl l cn tl 0 v byd rt rmla m
avale Pt's nterests than Medvedv's a at s the wld cd he game
It ble thg le a lely tha Medvedev wl le atece wt d'
jnt nactn ad attemp t stage a plt cal breat
28 Som rent pol ave repred tha ltly ore R would prr Mdvdv to e rlte in2 tha o utin turn all he ound take f rnd ha dvdv ad P eai oe ame pag poliialy Pin were o o on he aak aain Mdvdv iuaion wod verydfr.
0
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
34/40
B t t Puzzl
e rc coose ce o he ssan duvrs daw y M eable s o
reflec aew on he e of ow he ade ncos ha was rased early hs
aer
L s bg wh Brslaur a wh s wo-y-wo arx of ossbls
fo nerreaon dene by aes o deologca and owe dffereals ewee
wo heoes O hs or caegores C A eaures Medvedev as Ps olcal saell e
wh a aonoos o of vew u o ably o o effec ad hece vulerale
o beng ded or deed I y oo hs ovesaes e olcy dfeences
bewee P and Medvedev Cell B, Medvedev ccrs n un's onons b s
on a sow of ndeedence I a dbos abo hs ossbl y becase Medvedev bold
cal or acceleraed ansorao o he syse gve every sg o beng aue
MP aes e asso a as a racca aer egral oveen cano be
coerfeed b e sjec Medveev lely gves. vce noos. e holds re
whou h beng ully eedfl o he ercal conseuences or calleges ey ly
Te erence s ha he rheorcal general es. and oversaee w ch Medveev
dulges have o do a roo w hs nadua ovo and cocave labl s
ad no w s ne sese of urose
I reslaes C C, Medveev has oh a cuevalg l cal ase and
dscee oos We suld e awake o hs ossby b as c ers of
decso syle as o olcy osos The osec s gaed by Medvedevs and
un's ecrocal oeness o eracon a e sage of deernaon o en ally
he saon o C D accordng o eslaer he ade s a sale darcy or s
3
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
35/40
ules d until e princp seies the inttve nvtes pgrtclly d
hve s cep de I hery here i ig e cbtve peil
uc lg pwe d picile MA itructs th he dds l itte git i
I hve explined
Tring ls hypths b th g bw Mdvdv' ridti
retic d the ege reul chieve vee lyi gve s se prce n
ll ve
Meveev insncere hi ries chnge? r e MPA we n
ier t he pbty t Wht he. thh. s crry hi ppch t
tters stte d t uch drive deve brdy prudy nt rt d
ides Mrever he. eutrl we i ces t exudig hi ides c ey e.
whch ke pedic deced inep iring nd sring he e
iherently reer grise either-r ccept d values te dscnected r the
sce w e wld d he in el l e r hs w her ice
dlecece he hs exiited hyic rng iuit which iibit rus
vee Tdy s py expi why he c e cprehensive chg nd
ye be u ch wh l hi herc ir excie nd tick
9 Eli pj rp g ddiil hvl r g i' i y je w pi g e veiey e we. See re r MoentPaig ad h Dciso-akig Procss Dur Crsis: Vladimir Pui- A Excpoal Cas,Si Sdi G Dmbr 200. Br At of Tus o Move had ladr
Pu Prd oRussia Bhaioral Mom alysis wi Isoorphi Lik o olicy giRee Dee Nvl W Cllee 200 .
30re s Dmr Mdd A Sudy Polial adrhp ad Dci-Makg Syl pril20 I0 Srgi Sdi r r dii yyil vb yl dperliy
32
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
36/40
Colo s scod hory hgs o Mdvdv bing a docy a pol tcal
gtwgt who covtos. ar a kd o pronal oby proc ad do o at o
way o th oth t thi von, dlbaty lcd Mdvdv a a plachld,
pasig ov tiats ro his in crcl oovk oicials wi a ackgrond in
ct vc and ocl onalts who gh av td -pdnt o
tood n way o h rclag th Krln n 202 h MA vdnc do o
with Mdvdv a wak or pasv alog s saing ropnsy do iply o
lanc on oths to a dcso H s g tn ot pota oth
Mdvdvs poona and poliical l and us b ron on wo las
havt On th posiiv d Mdvdv s or dynic ad caabl o inovatg than
uin and is or rol and acical As copn or s saig dcy an o
o raons h act artiv ly wich on occasion a yild ipu lsiv and v
aggrv dciion notio a Mdvdvs ids ar no or han a prsoal
hob is. iplabl Idivduals ar incapal o silating bavioral potoyp
o ad abou whc Mov att Aalyss aks c
Wha o d hypo loatd y Colton. wch is that dvdv
chgd w towng o a mr at tat dvsty and cang ad aks
th contiac n ow o Pti and h cl? h MA tiato ovd paal
valdation or ti hypoti, nauch a t tand i a wll-adjustd t wo
bs a o th wo tally potv ad d o o o aoth'
diccis Sti ll r i ty o purpo hould not xaggratd uti i i clsd
ad val-dv way is pron to conductig hil a bad cop poting arh
tatnts abo indiv idual ad oth acors who do not coply with i xpcatos
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
37/40
Mdvdv ha on occai lgraphd rsvatio aot ut' roclaatioos
rcntly s nitabl rso o nhaps wth a rark by th p
tr nsuatg hat b agat Mkha hodorovsk, was gly a
chargd i h cod trl or cooic cri I t s a dv ion o taks tw
th colads n s ar Mdvdv taks o to th pa o good copn y
tiato owg to h drlyng pychologcal tcy to b a lasr ad shar t
Mdvdv ody o t to t paks to a wl upprssd ang that coul d
otlt n badcop havr
Yt anor ossbiity wold b that an narav about th tad i abot
frustraon tha s Mddv gnunly was abts rors and thy a
ytatically obtruct by tin h s o dnyig hat junior ladrs horic
pcial ly c h atun o0 ha bn incrasgly csorio about sia'
ailing ad incrasingly adaat abo th nd to rdy th throg ro or
ca t b dnd ha Mvdv s oltcally dndt o a sno ladr wo ha th
rorcs to vto chag h daprov o ha sad, ot vy nac o pnchat
a Mdvdv pt t o akara wll brd btt dscrd ad to dat ay icro
dnc hav bn bddd a acro contxt o broad cocord o udantals
v dvions occr ad Mdvdv o th o ad grows dicont h wll
hbtd y s lack o spotaty and h lac o th capacty or gtcal ly nid
ovrbal aggso short powr to lgrah h appal o chag ad
costtly obili ots bhd th cas s litd Wh tin o th othr ad
1 Mdvdv mad i thily ild pimad n Db 24 200 ay ial ld ha tigt t ct n a ciminal ca f a vi i ah Ti wa ly a utin tat taKdvii wa a ti w ld "it i ai h w at Mvv intvnti, a Mw und vii gilty a ad a g pi tc t n wa alady vig
34
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
38/40
t the bake o tande acio oe o the tie wi ll be de to hi abit of
contilly etuing o i nfoatio gtheig befoe ogg head i e decio cycle
y nate deey ivae eo he c be coute to kee hi oliticl cacltio
to hie util e lt oible oet fo veting te
Scao ub iv o olto ahi conseu, would t wth al
eoe Medvedev cedetia l a a eoe ad ut' oe conevatve
it inct whe ytheig the ito a gand agi wheeby cage i i ntuce bu
oly in all contollabe oe he le o MPA coni thi yothe to oit
y e ae toe it hw. tha the co-leade have. ylitic attibte that cotibe to
the eent taleate u ti ow e legitiacy a uthoity o h thugh chage;
oly to a ited etet oe e ake e coiten to do o e i lggih i
tdyig any itaton d oig itet o ake chce; hi weet it o al l
ileetatio Medveev i oe ecetve o cage bt le abe to effectvely
coceive o it A he coe hot i geting o the eat o the obe o hi geda
he ote d hiel tuggling to cay ot vague anodyne in tatve Medvedev
defect concat eotonal etaty e otacle to allying the
itegi and the lcla a wo owie wold be hi ata ace
omatons o U.. to
Te oegoig alyi oe acton oie SG olyake and
dlot
o Aeica eeetative who wih to egage the ui tade of Ation
Man d he Playe efectively a aeal t thei iteding efeence i e b
3
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
39/40
it f y Psntig w
SG t slid kwldg b
i trgly dviabl Shrg at th
ittig tg i cmm
chn fr ldr
iiv uay wll a w thm It
my th d t fifl rway irchg
O bnc mty licy rrch d wt r mt cmmdd fr
th. frmt-crvig ti T frm sld s t nw dt ad t
ld mlv valai ad rzat withut askig fr rm act
cmmim i lath giv withu dw-ut r csirati . ti th. ivt
dcii mr ct b cd t l chg wi r
imtin itrrtatn r l cur cti may al l th sm b fi
dg brd ltiv intilhugh w il l lkly w t rviit
imtin tg t verify fr crytlliing s gls r satgy Whn slsig
gl h my rdy t gt int rcg xchang ida
With Mdvdv rcmmd th th S snt riritis th t st
with hi val and dcld bctiv d ctain a iml i fr cmmitmt th tag
whr h i mt t m Mdvd may b n t rticit ig-lv dilg in
th shrs f tnding ad cmmitting fr ml ss l k ghait ad
miil df H i t t gg bttivl wit whatvr rtnr gt im
rd t hi tatd blis hl-fd as thy may nd hi aci lan t dat
6
-
8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf
40/40
I I am gh n my analyss the bicephalo leadehp n Moscw w ll pesevee
o o tm to omwhh no t ay tht th cas t nwdg zeo
a mmm, w l ec ssan oeg olcy o te net yea ad a hal a Aeca
plcy vga ogh hoppy wa ad o wn 0 1 lctio appoach. Wth
th tad pts pat , oms apat, o gd, wl ba cau oog
a analyi t beoove to ake fll use f a the conventional a cveta
set vaabl o the job