120601_M7-BH

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

1/108

FUTURE CHRISTCHURCH : SOLUTIONS.

Biran He

HOUSING

#4715695

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

2/108

2 Thesis | Chapter | Section

CONTENTS

Thesis Statement

1.0 Evolution of Cities

1.1 Global Trend1.2 Where to now?1.3 Current Global Trends of Housing1.4 The Demographia Housing Affordability Survey1.5 The Rise of Suburbia1.6 National Trends

2.0 The Other Cities Case Studies

2.1 Lessons from the United States_ Boulder, Colorado2.2 Lessons from Australia _ Perth, Western Australia2.3 Lessons from London_ Urban Infill

3.0 Urban Planning Research3.1 The Urban Sprawl Argument3.2 The Intensification Argument3.3 The Greater Christchurch Urban Development Strategy3.4 The Christchurch Central City Plan

3.5 The Issue with Affordability

4.0 Christchurch City - Market Research4.1 Age & Sex4.2 Ethnicity4.3 Impact of Earthquake on Households4.4 Household Changes4.5 Income

4.6 Median House Sale Prices4.7 Current Housing Supply4.8 Real Estate Market4.9 Automobile Dependency

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

3/108

3Your Name

4.10 Current Housing Demand4.11 Temporary Housing

5.0 Summary of findings

6.0 Urban Strategy6.1 Where Do We Live?6.2 What Sort of Houses Do We Want to Live In?6.3 Precedent Housing Projects6.4 Hidden Costs of Living in the Suburbs6.5 Location, Location, Location

6.6 Alternative Housing Types

References

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

4/108

4

Thesis Statement

Housing & EconomyHousing is vital in supporting uture social anddemographic change, and the housing sector isan economic driver that contributes to wealth

creation and distribution in the community.Housing makes up just over 70 percent ohousehold net wealth. It also accounts or 22percent o average household expenditure orowner-occupied households and 28 percento renting households average householdexpenditure. (CHRANZ, 2003) Aggregatedhousing statistics demonstrate its economicimportance. In 2007 the New Zealand housingstock was valued at $614 billion, nearly our

times the value o total G.D.P o $164.7 billion.In 2006, o a total household wealth o $584billion, $420 billion was held in residentialproperty.

Aordable housing is one o the primaryactors or attracting and retaining prospectiveworking and student populations. Innovationdrivers can be undermined i successulregional economies alienate young, creative

workers at the beginning o their careersbecause the struggle to access aordablehousing in the local market is too great.Along with other inrastructure components,aordable housing helps to determine whetheror not companies and employees locate and/orremain in a city or region. Thus the availabilityo aordable housing will be a main economicdriver in the rebuild o Christchurch.

Housing DemandMy thesis is about providing aordablesolutions to Christchurchs housing problems.Christchurch has lost an estimated 6,000

houses due to the earthquakes in 2010/2011.With projections o 36,000 workers expectedto move into the city or the rebuild by the endo 2013, there is a very real and urgent housingcrisis. According to the Greater ChristchurchUrban Development Strategy (GCUDS, 2007),Christchurch Citys population is expectedto grow by more than 70,000 people by theyear 2041. This would mean around 40,600additional dwelling are required. So where will

all these new people live and in what type ohouse?

Market research shows that there are limitedchoices or the home buyers in Christchurch.With single detached housing comprising74%, o the market and multi-unit housingtypes accounting or 22%; there is a hugeopportunity or the city to consider newhousing typologies or its rebuild. Projected

demographic data rom Statistics New Zealandalso indicates changing housing needs. By2041, Christchurch will see more single personhouseholds, amilies will have become smaller,and more couples without children and anincrease in empty-nesters. This mismatchbetween smaller households and the large sizeo the average Christchurch house is leadingto an imbalance in supply and demand.

Housing OptionsThere are two housing strategies options: todevelop the ringe land, and create new sub-divisions; or inll within the urban boundary

and build higher density housing. Each optionhas advantages and disadvantages.

Creating subdivisions incurs signicantinrastructure costs or roads and ootpaths,water supply, electricity, sewerage. So it isimportant to ensure inrastructure is in theright place, with the right capacities andat an aordable cost. . A scenario studycompleted in 2011 by the Greater Canterbury

Urban Development Strategy (GCUDS, 2007)partnership shows a compact city will cost$150 million less on public inrastructure thana sprawling one.

The GCUDS partnership proposes to intensiythe city, controlling sprawl at the urban ringe.The plan aims to change the intensicationversus greeneld development ratio rom 25:75,to 60:40 by 2041. However Hugh Pavletich

and Wendell Cox (Demographia HousingAordability Survey authors) argue thathaving a tight control on ringe-land releaseleads to increase land prices, thus makinghouses unaordable. However, there are alsoways to develop within the city boundarieswhile being aordable such as, picking outunder-used inll sites and redeveloping themor housing. Or developing sections wherethe prices are not inated within the urban

boundary.

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

5/108

5

Housing SolutionsMy thesis looks at the current and uturehousing situation in Christchurch and aimsto propose solutions to the unprecedented

demand. To accommodate the additional70,000 people within the present boundarieso Christchurch I believe we have to buildmulti-storey apartment blocks as well as allowor two or more townhouses on remainingquarter-acre sections. It is clear we cannotcontinue building the same housing type romthe 1960s; it no longer meets the demographicdemand, and the hidden costs are taxing onour economy and individuals income.

While the population is increasing, the averagehousehold size is decreasing, which means wewill require even more dwellings. Liestyles arealso changing the type o houses we want tolive in, the location and demand or servicessuch as shops, schools and recreationalacilities are important to the new home buyer.

This thesis aims to address the housing

crisis by proposing housing types that meetdemographic demands and provide choices,to the otherwise heavily suburban dominatedlandscape. It also advocates or intensicationas a means to provide citizens with more costeective housing choices.

Housing Shortage Demographics

Existing Housing Stock What is Missing ?

Where?

What type?(Create catalogue)Future DemandNow Future

Red Zone :

6000 homesdemolished

2013 inux of 36,000workers.

Future Population growth:

40,593 houses needed by2041

74%

single detached

more choicesof housing type

22%

multi- units

Mind map o the housing economic argument, and how it leads to the urban strategy.

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

6/108

6

1.0 The Evolution o Cities

Book Cover o The Endless CitySource: LeGates & Stout, 2011

Intersection o High, Manchester and Licheld Streets, Christchurch, 8 May 1923Source: Photographic Archive, Alexander Turnbull Library, National Library o New Zealand

Rapid UrbanizationUrbanization is the increase in the share o asocietys population that lives in cities.

The rapid recent and continuing growth in the

number and size o cities and urbanizationtheshit o population rom rural areas and smalltowns to urban areasare striking phenomenain human history. In 1800 only about 6% othe world population o approximately 900million peopleabout 54 million peoplelivedin urban areas and only one city (London)had more than one million inhabitants. Todaynearly hal the world population o 6.5 billionabout 3.25 billion peoplelive in urban areas.

Nearly 1.3 billion people live in 524 urbanagglomerations with populations o 750,000 ormore. (LeGates R. , 2006)

The urban transition: an S-shaped growthcurve showing the urbanization process overtime.

Urbanization oten ollows a pattern thathistorical urban demographer Kingsley Davisdescribes as an attenuated S curve with along let tail as the population in a regionslowly becomes more urban, a steep middleportion o the S as the region urbanizesrapidly, and then a nearly at upper part o theS curve once the region is essentially ullyurban. (LeGates & Stout, 2011)

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

7/108

7

1.1 Global Trend

(projected)

The S Curve of Urbanisation

1100

0

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1200 1300 15001400 1600 1700 1800 20001900 2100 2200

percentage

urban

year

industrialrevolution

WWII ended, 1945

A Chatholic Town in 1440 (Augustus Pugin)

A modern downtown of the 1920s

Market Street, San FranciscoIndustrial Town in 1840 (Augustus Pugin)

Suburban development in

Colorado Springs, USA. 2008

The Garden City, 1898

(Ebenezer Howard)

introduction of thesteam engine

Mass production of

the motor-car, 1920s

Time line o global urbanization.Image source: LeGates & Stout, 2011

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

8/108

8

Grant Avenue rom Market Street, San Francisco, Caliornia Postcard. ca. 1915-1925, GrantAvenue rom Market Street, San Francisco, Caliornia PostcardSource: Universal Images Group / SuperStock

Colombo Street, Christchurch, looking south towards the Cathedral. ca. 1930Source: Christchurch City Libraries

The Decay of TasteDuring the rst part o the nineteenth century,new industrial cities based on steam poweredmachinery sprang up in Europe. AugustusPugin, a contemporary observer, contrasts

the same city beore and ater the industrialrevolution. The rst plate titled A CatholicTown in 1440 shows a city where churchspires are the dominant architectural element,the land surrounding the medieval city walls islargely empty, and the air and water are clean.(See time line on previous page.)

The second plate titled The Same Town in1840, shows a layer o smog, with actory

smokestacks that have replaced the steeples.Development has sprawled to the once-emptyland, and the oreground is dominated by amassive prison. Pugin subtitled his work: AParallel between the Noble Edices o theMiddle Ages and the Corresponding Buildingso the Present Day Showing the Present Decayo Taste. (LeGates & Stout, 2011)

A modern downtown o the 1920s. (FIG) One

o the prevailing urban eatures in the mid-nineteenth century was the appearance olarge streets where the upper classes couldtravel without coming into contact with thesqualid living conditions o the residentialslums that comprised the greater part o thecity. This postcard shows the bustling MarketStreet in San Francisco in about 1920 is typicalo the new downtown o the modernist period.Not that the trams, buses, automobiles, and

pedestrians all share the public space.

The picture o Colombo Street in Christchurcharound the same era shows some remarkablesimilarities. There where large streets where

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

9/108

9

people would travel along with the trams andautomobiles. Pedestrians and cyclists sharethe same public space. Also note the largeamount o cyclists on the road compared to

cars. Since then, the urban orm has evolved,to become more sprawled out, paved withhighways and clogged up with automobiles.Almost like Augustus Pugins disappointmentat the 1840s industrial town, our cities havebecome a decay o taste again.

Levittown, New York, 1947.

While suburbs have a long and varied history, it was during the period ater WorldWar II that many o the suburbs surrounding US cities arose. Levittown, New York,provided entirely new communities o aordable, cute, single-amily houses onindividual lots to returning soldiers and rst-time home buyers.

Aerial view o Levittown, New York, 1947Source: http://instanthouse.blogspot.co.nz/2011/08/levittown-ny.html

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

10/108

10

1.2 Where to now?

According to (Newman & Kenworthy, 1989),increasing the intensity o urban activitywithin the present urban area rather thancontinuing to push into green-eld ruralareas has come to be called re-urbanization.

It ollows the pattern o urban trendsoutlined in the diagram to the right. In there-urbanization process, population and jobsonce again begin to grow in inner areas andouter areas concentrate development andbegin to take on more o the intensity andmixed character o the old inner areas.

Re-urbanization is discussed mainly in Europe

and is only minimally considered or its uelsavings; the principal motivations usually areits economic and social benets-a vital andattractive central and inner city and betterutilization o the existing urban inrastructure.In addition, re-urbanization is considered

to help diminish vehicle emissions thatcontribute to acid rain and smog. (Newman &Kenworthy, 1989)

Despite the sub-urbanization processes o thepostwar period, most European cities havenot de-concentrated as rapidly as have citiesin the United States (or the cities in NewZealand). Likewise, European cities do not acethe same inner and central city problems onhousing and transport. Nevertheless, there isan ongoing eort to re-urbanize.

The Greater Christchurch Urban Development

Strategy (GCUDS) has already put measuresin place to re-urbanize the city. Their approachis to contain urther growth o the city,discouraging developments on the urbanringe, and promote consolidation within theexisting urban areas. The other scenarios othe strategy will be discussed in detail later inthis thesis.

Reurbanization as a ourth phase in urban development.Source: Newman & Kenworthy, 1989

Accelerating pace of changeThe pace o change has been rapid, city regionso 1 million people or more multiplied in thetwentieth century. Today they accommodatea total o 1 billion people, reecting their role

as centers o global ows o people, capital,culture and inormation.

While there were only a hand ull o cityregions o this scale up to the mid-twentiethcentury, the number soared to 450 by 2005.(Burdett & Sudjic, 2008)

Since 2008, over hal the worlds

population were living in urban areas,with this gure only set to increasein to the uture. (U.N PopulationDivision, 2012 )This continuedincrease in urban population makesit integral to provide quality andaordable housing to meet the needso the citizens.

The urban and rural population o the world, 1950 - 2030Source: U.N Population Division, 2012

Re-urbanization

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

11/108

11

Accelerating pace o change, 1950 - 2005Colors represent dierent continents, size o dot represents populations o 1 million or moreSource: Burdett & Sudjic, 2008

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

12/108

12

1.3 Current Global Trends o Housing

An international study by the London Schoolo Economics, (Scanlon & Whitehead, 2004)revealed some very interesting acts onhousing trends and tenure.

> In all countries studied, except Germany,owner-occupation is the largest single tenurecategory.

> Overall, percentages o owner-occupationrange rom Germany (41%) to Hungary (92%).The mean is 67% only a little below the UKgure o 70%.

> In almost every country, the proportion oowner-occupiers is higher amongst Mid-Liethan Young Entrant households.

> The proportions o younger householdsentering owner-occupation are, however,stable or alling, oten by quiet signicantamounts.

> The main reason given or younger

households not entering owner-occupationis aordability. (UK had increased theavailability o more appropriate private rentedaccommodation as a retort.)

> Given that interest rates have allen in allcountries, and mortgage conditions haveeased, aordability problems are mainly theresult o increased house prices.

> In our o nine countries the percentageo owner-occupiers among middle-agedhouseholds with children has allen over thelast decade.

>Across countries, social renting is always thecheapest tenure option or either householdtype. For Young Entrant households, privaterenting is cheaper than owner-occupation, but

or Mid-Lie households it is more expensive.This is the same pattern as was observed tenyears ago.

The Young Entrant household was dened as atwo-adult household without children, with themain respondent aged around 25 years, and anaverage income or the age group.

The Mid-Lie household was dened as a two-

adult household with two children, with themain respondent aged around 45 years, and anaverage income or that age group.

(Scanlon & Whitehead, 2004)

Average age o rst-time home buyer is high or most countries.Source: Scanlon & Whitehead, 2004

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

13/108

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

14/108

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

15/108

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

16/108

16

In the medieval period and up through theeighteenth century, suburbs were clusters ohouses inhabited by poor and/or disreputablepeople on the outskirts o towns. Whensuburbs were rst established or the upperand middles classes a phenomenon that hasthrived more in North America than in Europe,where working class suburbs and banlieus

(outskirts o a city) oten predominate theideal was to create a perect synthesis o urbansophistication and rural virtue. Here was aconception as utopian as any other visionarysocial reormer, but with an importantdierence. Fishman explains that whereother modern utopias have been collectivist,suburbia has built its vision o communityon the primacy o private property and theindividual amily. (Fishman, 1987)

Fishman notes that all new urban orms appearto be chaotic in their early stages. Even themost organic city-scapes o the past evolvedslowly ater much chaos and trial and error.

For example, it took planners like FredrickLaw Olmsted (Olmsteds Riverside Suburb)and Ebenezer Howard (Garden City) to createorderly parks and garden suburbs out o the

nineteenth century chaos.

Fishman argues that there is a unctional logicto sprawl. Perhaps, he speculates, i sprawl isbetter understood and better managed it mightprove to be a positive rather than a negativedevelopment. Fishman looks to Frank LloydWrights Broadacre City vision, as an exampleo how inspired planners may yet devise anaesthetic to tame the suburbia.

1.5 The Rise o Suburbia

I the nineteenth century could becalled the Age o Great Cities, post 1945 America would appear to be theAge o Great Suburbs

-Robert Fishman, 1987

Wrights Broadacre CityFrank Lloyd Wrights Broadacre City (see nextpage), oten conused with a kind o universalsub-urbanization, it was the complete oppositeo the suburbs he despised. Broadacres was

based on universal automobile ownershipcombined with a network o superhighwayswhich removed the need or population tocluster at a particular spot.

Indeed, any such clustering was necessarilyinecient, a point o congestion rather than ocommunication. The city would thus spreadout to the country side at densities that wouldallow each amily to have its own armstead

and even to engage in part-time agriculture.

However these armsteads would not beisolated; their access to the superhighwayswould put them in reach o jobs and mayspecialized services, as any other nineteenthcentury urbanite. Travelling in theirautomobiles, each citizen would create his owncity within hundreds o square miles he couldreach in an hours drive. (LeGates & Stout, 2011)

In the book Bourgeois Utopias, RobertFishman discovered that the suburban idealwas yet another orm o utopia, the utopia o themiddle class. (Robert Fishman is a proessor o

history at the University o Michigan.)

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

17/108

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

18/108

18

1.6 National Trends

Early history suggest that New Zealand wasdeveloping a healthy public transportationsystem, and developments were built aroundthat. During the 1880s horse-drawn tram

services were set up in all our main centers.Commuter suburbs developed along thetram routes and property speculators tookadvantage o this trend by buying andsubdividing more land on the city ringes.(TeAra, 2011)

However, the industrial revolution hit, andthe popularization o motor-cars saw rapidurbanization, which lead to sub-urbanization

or sprawl. Everyone wanted to have a pieceo this New Zealand Dream. (1/4 acre, a carand a bungalow)

The development o sub-urbanization hasbeen concurrent with the development ourbanization in New Zealand. As New Zealandcities have expanded in population, they havealso expanded dramatically in size. At rstsuburbs developed around public transport

routes, then, with advent o the private motorcar, urban sprawl increased.

In 2002 the New Zealand Ocial Yearbook2002 recorded New Zealand as one o the mosthighly urbanized countries in the world, with85.7 percent o its population living in urbanareas.

In 1881, urban New Zealanders were a minority,

but by 2001 they had been the substantialmajority o New Zealanders or some time.This trend is not unique to New Zealand, butrather reects an international trend towardsurbanization. Worldwide, cities have expanded

and swallowed up vast areas o land andpopulation. Main urban areas have grown atthe expense o smaller urban communities.

New Zealand has also ollowed theinternational phenomenon o urbanexpansion. In 1901, approximately one-quartero the urban population (10.1 percent o thetotal population, excluding Mori) lived in aborough or town district with 25,000 or morepeople. In 2001, over 80 percent o the urbanpopulation (71 percent o the census usuallyresident population count) lived in a mainurban area (an urban area with a population

o 30,000 or more). The Auckland urban areais now the largest nationally, increasing byapproximately 3,000 percent between 1886and 2001. (Stats NZ, 2012)

A Snapshot of a Changing New Zealand

Source:Stats NZ Data

1996 2001 2006 2011

Population 3,732,000 3,880,500 4,184,600 4,405,200

Average Household

Size2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6

Couples Only 309,819 376,905 467,700 528,700

Couples with

Children379,218 407,793 480,700 480,100

Single-Person

Households256,569 307,635 362,800 405,900

Vehicles Registered 1,635,718 1,909,480 2,241,490 4,196,826

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

19/108

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

20/108

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

21/108

2 L th U it d St t

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

22/108

22

2.1 Lessons rom the United States

Denver, Colorado. Population Change 2000-2010. U.S.Census DataSource:http://www.datapointed.net/visualizations/maps/growth-rings/denver-colorado/

Boulder : Limiting GrowthBoulder, Colorado in America has developed anational reputation or having dealt creativelywith growth management issues. The city hasdeveloped a 27,000-acre greenbelt, a system or

controlling the rate o population growth bylimiting building permits, and a dened urbangrowth boundary managed in cooperationwith Boulder County. Boulder's approach tourban growth boundaries, called the servicearea concept, oers important lessons orcontrolling sprawl, preserving rural land usesoutside the city, and extending urban servicesin a rational manner.

Boulder is a mid sized city pressed againstthe vertical ank o the Rockies, about 50kilometres rom Denver. Boulder is hometo approximately 96,000 people. Its strongeconomy is ounded on the university, ederallaboratories, regional and local retail, and adynamic industrial sector concentrated inthe high tech industry and business services.Nearly 40 years ago, the city tried to control itsuture on its own, setting itsel up as an ideal

mix o wild and urban. (Pollock, 1998)

The plan was called the service area concept.In the decade o the 1950s, Boulder's populationgrew rom 25,000 to 37,000 and during the1960s it grew by a whopping 29,000 to reach66,000.

Starting in 1959; Boulder drew a line in themountains just above the city, above which no

water or sewer services could be extended. Itwas dubbed the Blue Line, and it was setup toprotect the oothills rom development whichwas considered imminent and extremelydetrimental to the natural beauty o Boulder.

It insured that City water service could not beused to urther urban development up into theoothills. (Egan, 1996)

Then, in 1967, Boulder started to take a portiono the sales tax and buy up open space, mostlyranch land that was being sold to commercialdevelopers. It has since purchased 25,000 acres.In 1976, Boulder went a step urther, setting alimit on residential growth, at 2 percent a year.(Egan, 1996)

Benefits: The service area concept creates an identiableurban/rural edge. Unlike many cities thathave either sprawled into the countryside or

acilitated leaprog development, Boulder hascreated a real edge between urban and ruraldevelopment.

It provides for the rational extension ofurban services. The denition o areas whereservices are to be provided (along with initialdesignations o land use) allows a direct linkbetween land use planning and inrastructureplanning. Parks, recreation, police, re,

transportation, water, sewer and ood controlservice providers can develop their masterplans knowing where services are to beextended, over what time rame, and or whattypes o land uses.

It helps preserve rural lands outside the city.Boulder's service area policy has sent a clearsignal to the land markets that land outsideo Boulder's service area is not likely to be

urbanized in the near uture. This has lessenedland speculation or urban developmentpurposes and acilitated the acquisition oopen space.

It helps focus development within the city.Through redevelopment o under utilized areasand inll development, the city has been ableto capitalize on existing public investments ininrastructure.

It provides both exibility and certaintyto the planning process. As the communityexperiences change over time, land can beadded to or deleted rom the service area, and

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

23/108

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

24/108

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

25/108

25

Network City Framework, PerthSource: Western Australian Planning Commission, 2005

Network CityIntroduced in late 2004, Network Cityis an over-arching ramework that hasbeen designed to act as a planning guide

or government departments in WA. Itincorporates the Perth and Peel and Murrayregions and aims to promote sustainabledevelopment. Network City resulted rom aprocess involving dialogue with 1000 peoplein September 2003, a change rom previousstrategies that involved only small groups oexperts in the eld. As a plan, Network city aimsto express: a contemporary understanding othe challenges acing Perth and Peel and the

options or responding imaginatively to them.Many o these principles and plans have beenaround or a long time, and many orm thebasis or important initiatives such as policiesor live-able neighborhoods, water sensitiveurban design, vibrant centres, transit orienteddevelopment and better public transport andmajor inrastructure investments such asNew Metro-Rail. Network city brings togetherthese policies and other innovations in a more

integrated orm and with a renewed sense ourgency. Within the plan, there is an emphasison growth management, containing urbansprawl, and enhancing opportunities or urbanregeneration and renewal within the existingurban area. (Western Australian PlanningCommission, 2005)

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

26/108

26

Directions 2031 and BeyondDirections 2031 and Beyond the latest growthstrategy or Perth, launched in 2010. It isaimed to tighten up the sprawling city, andplan or higher density living and greaterpublic transport. John Day, Western AustraliaPlanning Minister said a big boost in inllhousing (whereby additional units wereadded to an already approved subdivision

or neighborhood) was needed to helpaccommodate the 550,000 extra residentsexpected in that time. (Perth Now, 2010)

The 20-year strategy set a target o 47 per centor inll development, with the other 53 percent coming rom greenelds developments(whereby new land is allocated or projects).The inll target was well above the 30 to 35 percent achieved over the past decade or so

The new strategy ocused on providing veto six story structures along major publictransport routes or highways. The aim wassmaller homes on average and greater use

We cannot continue simply to ocuson more urban sprawlthat has highcosts in providing inrastructure,high social costs, high transportcosts. So, we do need to become amore compact city than we have beenin the past.''

John Day (Western AustraliaPlanning Minister)

o public transport while ensuring Perthremained one o the most livable cities in theworld.

We also need to get areas o employment,industrial land developments and othercommercial developments, so that people can,hopeully, live not too ar rom where they areworking...''said Mr Day. (Perth Now, 2010)

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

27/108

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

28/108

3.0 Urban Planning

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

29/108

29

g

The case for sprawlZoning strangulation by government.

Limiting greeneld developments can driveup house prices across board.

Constraints on release o residential landcreates scarcity, limits choices and increasesmarket price.

Immediate release o land will ease supplyconstraints and reduce pressure on prices.

Christchurch housing is 6.3 times more thanmedian income. It should only be 3 times

more, according to Hugh Pavletich.

We should be building 4000-5000 new homesper year on the ringes o Christchurch.

High density intensied central urbanplanning is the governments key objective atthe expense o displaced red zoners who areleaving the city.

Get land opened up on thefringes ASAP!

Build as many affordablehouses * as we can for thepeople in the Red Zone.

Hugh Pavletich

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

30/108

3.1 SprawlIno graphic to be made

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

31/108

31

3.2 Intensifcation

Externalities (positives, negatives)Ino-graphic to be made...

Externalities (positives, negatives)

> Housing aordability is incompatible with restrictive land-use?...one literature review lists more than 25 studies over a period o 30 years, all o which indicate a potential or associationbetween more restrictive land use regulations and higher house prices. (Cox & Pavletich, 2012)> Increasing urban development puts pressure on suburban centres and towns to maintain their individual and districtidentities. (GCUDS, 2007)

> Recent examples o housing inll have raised issues about the loss o period houses, light and privacy, open space andgreenery (particularly large trees) and increases in noise and a neighbourhoods ability to maintain its identity. (GCUDS,2007)

Research in Christchurch highlighted strong resistance to inll housing among residents, and the way it was seen tocontradict the garden city heritage and undermine an established and valued way o suburban lie intimately linked withamily and social relations (Vallance et al., 2005).

Inner city residents o medium density housing in Christchurch were similarly concerned about the intrusive nature o anyurther increase in densities and the lower quality o development and standards o living they are associated with.Increased density was seen as actually lowering the social sustainability o housing; intensication o inner city sites saw

the displacement o lower income households rom the ageing housing stock in which they had enjoyed accessibilitybenets by more prosperous residents in modern, well-appointed units (Ancell and Fawcett Thompson, 2007).

* In economics, an externality, or transaction spillover, is a cost or benet not transmitted through prices that is incurredby a party who did not agree to the action causing the cost or benet. (e.g. Urban sprawl causes negative externalities suchas transportation costs, inrastructure costs, pollution etc..)

> car use dependency> demand or new inrastructure and services> the encroachment o the built environment into other land use zones.

3.3 The Greater Christchurch Urban Development Strategy

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

32/108

32

next 35 years Greater Christchurchs growthwill be split 71% within Christchurch City, 16%in Selwyn District and 13% in WaimakaririDistrict. (GCUDS, 2007)

Decentralised Pattern ofDevelopmentGrowth in Christchurch has been characterizedby a decentralised pattern o development.This has occurred as a result o demographicand socioeconomic changes (e.g. steadypopulation growth, higher household incomes,desire or home ownership and changes inthe dominant modes o transport rom oot,

bicycle, and tram to the private car).

The response to this pattern o development wasthe adoption by successive regional planningauthorities during the period between 1959and 1991 o spatial policies or containment ourban growth within the Christchurch built-uparea, combined with planned decentralizationo population at designated satellite growthcentres at Rangiora, Kaiapoi, Woodend and

Rolleston.

Overview of Growth IssuesA number o key issues inuencing the uturegrowth o Greater Christchurch are:

> Dispersed urban growth in GreaterChristchurch has resulted in a loss oconnectivity between living and working.People are now travelling increased distances

to see riends, go to work or obtain goods andservices.

> High quality open space is becomingincreasingly scarce. As population and

The main points o the Greater ChristchurchUrban Development Strategy (GCUDS) are:

> Urban sprawl is minimized.

> Our electricity, communications, sewage,water and waste water systems grow with ourpopulation.

The Greater Christchurch populationcontinues to grow. The GCUDS is acollaborative planning eort between localauthorities in the greater Christchurchmetropolitan area.

Greater Christchurch is expecting an increaseo around 75,000 new households over the next35 years, with two thirds o this growth withinthe rst 20 years. An assessment was madeo the capacity or planned intensicationin Central Christchurch and elsewhere inthe existing built up area o Christchurch,together with an allowance made or on-goinginll. In total these areas are to be planned and(re)developed to accommodate an additional33,500 households, indicating a rate o 45%intensication and inll as the strategy target.

A urther 19,500 households are proposed ornew developments on the edge o the cityand the balance o 22,000 households mainlythrough greeneld development integratedwith existing district towns. (GCUDS, 2007)

The proposed settlement pattern is based uponmaintaining the distinction between urbanand rural areas by concentrating developmentat and around existing urban areas, both largeand small. The Strategy proposes that over the

dwelling densities increase it becomes evenmore important to provide and adequatelymanage open spaces

> An aging population requires dierentinrastructure and new investment. Asthe population ages, the requirements orrecreation and transport acilities, in particular,may change.

Current Growth ContainmentChristchurch City Council has a policy ourban containment that has discourageddevelopment on the urban ringe and promoted

consolidation within existing urban areas.Demand or urban land that cannot be met inChristchurch has been accommodated in thesurrounding districts. This Strategy has beeninitiated in response to the adverse eectsarising rom the location and orm o urbangrowth. Four settlement plans or managinguture growth were developed during 2004 -2005. The Great Christchurch Metropolitanarea was in avour o the concentration

option, with 63% public support. The next mostpopular option was the consolidated orm andthe option proposing a dispersed orm was theleast avoured.(Lilley, 2006)

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

33/108

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

34/108

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

35/108

35

Proposed settlement patternThe proposed settlement pattern is based uponmaintaining the distinction between urbanand rural areas by concentrating developmentat and around existing urban areas, both largeand small.

Transport is a key component o an integratedapproach to land use development. Securingthe main north, west and southern corridorsto ensure accessibility to the Port o Lytteltonand International Airport are top priorities.Enhanced public transport services, thatprovide practical and aordable alternativesto using private motorcars, are essential ora more sustainable and environmentallyriendly transport system. ChristchurchAirports operation would not be compromisedby urban expansion under the ight path toensure competitiveness and accessibility.

Commercial and business activity centresto the north at Belast and southwest atHornby will be developed to meet the needso city residents and people living beyondthese city edges. A revitalized Central Cityserves as a regional ocus or commerceand entertainment and as home or 30,000residents. (GCDUS,2007)

The Strategy proposes thatover the next 35 years GreaterChristchurchs growth will besplit 71% within Christchurch City,

16% in Selwyn District and 13% inWaimakariri District.

Proposed Settlement Plan or Greater Christchurch RegionSource: GCUDS, 2007

3.3 The Christchurch Central City Plan

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

36/108

36

OverviewThe Christchurch Central City Plan (CCCP)aims to bring people into the city center to liveand work. Beore the earthquake, the CentralCity was already home to 7700 residents. TheGreater Christchurch Urban DevelopmentStrategy (GCUDS), and subsequent CanterburyRegional Policy Statement, identiy the CentralCity as a key residential growth area as parto a shit towards a more consolidated urbanorm in Greater Christchurch.

The Central City Plan proposes greater choiceo housing in the Central City to attract adiverse range o residents, including amilieswho seek sae environments in which to raisetheir children; places where they can enjoya range o stimulating activities in a healthyenvironment.

For the Central Citys recovery to be successulit requires a signicant residential populationto support business growth and development,and create a high level o activity and vibrancy.This works in conjunction with the councilsplan or a more compact CBD in the uture.(Christchurch CityCouncil, 2011)

The CCCP set out ve key initiatives to shapethe uture Christchurch:

1. Green City2. Stronger built identity3. Compact CBD4. Live, work, play, learn and visit5. Accessible city

A greener more attractive city, supported bya wider and upgraded Avon River/takarocorridor, a greener Cathedral Square, newstreet trees throughout the Central City, 500new green-rated buildings, rain gardens,surace stormwater treatment and a newnetwork o neighbourhood parks.

A lower rise city with sae, sustainable buildingsthat look good and unction well, supportedby urban design controls, new regulation andincentives, strengthened heritage buildingswith adaptive reuse, new lanes and courtyardsand precincts o distinct activities, character

and culture.

A more compact Central Business District(CBD) supported by business incentives, newregulations and well-designed streetscapes.Ultra-ast broadband and ree WiFi, short-term ree car parking in Council-controlled carparking buildings and bus routes around theedges o the CBD.

New high-quality inner city housing optionsand demonstration projects, residentialincentives, improved access to a wide range oschools, new metropolitan sporting acilities,a new Central Library, new public art andperorming arts venues and playgrounds.

A city easy to get to and around, supportedby excellent walking and cycling paths, high-

quality public transport, a network o greentwo-way streets and an ecient and attractivering road or trac around Moorhouse,Fitzgerald, Bealey, Harper and Deans avenues.Beore and ater diagrams showing the ve key initiatives to

redevelop the city.Source: Christchurch City Council, 2011

1. Green city

2. Stronger built identity

3. Compact CBD

4. Live, work, play, learn and visit

5. Accessible city

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

37/108

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

38/108

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

39/108

39

Proposed uture neighbourhood scenarioSource: Christchuch City Council, 2011

Proposed uture precincts and areas o interest.Source: Christchuch City Council, 2011

Housing ShowcaseThe council is also looking at high quality,commercially viable examples o residentialdevelopment that will inspire developers andshow potential residents the benets o livingin the Central City. There will be $200,000worth o unding every year or this programmestarting in 2012.

The Housing Showcase will be created early inthe redevelopment o the city to help motivatehigh-quality urban design outcomes orChristchurch. It will ocus on new mixed-use,inner-city neighbourhood displaying mediumdensity homes, based on sustainable designprinciples.

The Council will consider establishinga number o housing showcases i theopportunity arises.

Housing showcase project

Where: Size and location to be

decided with development partners

When: Early in the redevelopmentprocess to inuence otherdevelopments (2012-13)

Who: Christchurch City Council,Department o Building and Housing,Beacon Pathway, private developers

and technology providers

Cost: $200,000 annually or threeyears

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

40/108

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

41/108

41

Christchurch Quick Facts

* GCUDS

** 2006 Stats NZ Data

2006 Population 348,435

422,100

73,665

0.85%

20,000+

40,600

1000 aprox.

2041 Population

Population growth from 06-41

Average annual growth rate

New housing units needed to accomodate inux of workers

New housing units break down by type**

Average number of new housing units constructed per year

New housing units needed to accomodate population growth

74% Separate House

22% Two or more Flats/Units Joined

4% Others/ Not Dened

Source: Statistics New Zealand Data Set, 2006

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

42/108

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

43/108

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

44/108

4 2 Ethnicity

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

45/108

45

4.2 EthnicityThe ethnic make-up o Christchurch City isdominated by Europeans at 75%, and the Maoriand Pacic peoples account or 11%. Asiansmake up about 8%.

> In 2006, over two thirds (68 per cent) o CentralCity residents identied with the Europeanethnic group. This has decreased rom 88 percent in 1996.

> In 2006, almost one-th (19 per cent) oCentral City residents identied with the Asianethnic group. This has increased rom 7 percentin 1996.

> In 2006, 6.5 per cent o Central City residentsidentied with the Maori ethnic group. This hasdecreased rom 8 per cent in 1996.

> In 2006, 1.6 per cent o Central City residentsidentied with the Pacic Peoples ethnic group.This has decreased rom 2 percent in 1996.

(Statistics NZ, 2006 census)

Proportion of ethnicity among the population


Ethnicity proportion of population living in Central City


4 3 Impact of Earthquake on Households

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

46/108

46

Market Economics was contracted to providea household model that took into accountthe impact o the earthquake on the UDSprojections, and subsequently, the impact onprojections within the three Central City area

units.

This model uses three UDS level scenariosthat reect possible impacts on uture growthas a result o the earthquake. The low impactscenario assumes a small immediate loss ohouseholds (2%) and a return to the normalgrowth rate relatively quickly.

The major impact scenario assumes a high

level o initial loss (5%), with growth takinglonger to recover.

The medium impact scenario is the hal-way point between both scenarios. Note allscenarios expect growth to return to normalater about 10 years.

(See line graph to the right)

150,000

160,000

170,000

180,000

190,000

200,000

210,000

220,000

230,000

240,000

250,000

2006 2011 post

earthquake

2016 2021 2031 2041

ProjectedHouse

holds

Projecton Year

UDS Pre Earthquake

UDS - low impact scenario

UDS - medium impact scenario

UDS - High impact scenario

Future scenarios o household numbers or the Greater Christchurch Urban Development Strategy area.Source: CCCP, 2011

4.3 Impact of Earthquake on Households

4.4 Household Changes

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

47/108

47

4.4 Household Changes

In 2006, there were 41,900couples in Christchurch. By2031, there will be 62,200

couples. That is an increaseo 48% !

One-person households areprojected to increase by anaverage o 2.0 percent a year,

rom 363,000 in 2006 to 602,000in 2031.

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

New Zealand Auckland Christchurch

Couple One Parent Two Parent Single Person Other Mult-Person

Statistics New Zealand projections ohousehold composition and age structureindicate the demographic drivers o the shittowards smaller households, the main onebeing an increase in couple and single person

households over the 25 years rom 2006 to2031. This compared with modest growth intwo parent amilies and a likely contractionin single parent amilies a pattern mostpronounced in Christchurch.

The resulting all in average household sizeis what inorms projections o the potentialor higher residential densities, both as aresult o the general tendency towards smaller

households and because amilies with childrenare becoming a smaller component o thelong-term housing prole. This expectation ismoderated or Auckland, where past migrationgains and ethnic diversity have maintained ayounger age prole.

Analysis o Statistics New Zealand age-specic projections casts some light on thepossible consequences o the overall changes

in household type. By ar the bulk o peopledriving uture growth in single and two personhouseholds are empty nesters (representedby people aged between 50 to 64 years orpresent purposes) and early or active retirees(represented by people aged 65 to 79 years;Figure 4). Together they account or 74% othe projected growth in smaller households.Analysis o apartment dwellers in 2006suggests that currently these groups are not

likely to reside in apartments, particularly inthe central o city. (Dunbar & McDermott, 2011)

Household composition

Changing Household Composition, 2006-2031Source: Statistics New Zealand Data Set, 2006

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

48/108

48

> In 2006, 41 percent o Central City householdsconsisted o one amily, compared with 66percent city-wide.

> In 2006, 15 per cent o Central City

households consisted o other multi-personhouseholds (in a non-amily situation, e.g.atting), compared with 7 per cent city-wide.

> In 2006, 40 per cent o Central Cityhouseholds consisted o one-personhouseholds, compared with 25 per cent city-wide.

(Statistics NZ, 2006 census)

Family type

>In 2006, 68 per cent o Central City amilieswere couples without children, compared with42 per cent city-wide.

>In 2006, 17 per cent o Central City amilieswere couples with children, compared with 40per cent city-wide.

>In 2006, 15 per cent o Central City amilieswere one parent with children, compared with18 per cent city-wide.

Growing trend of inner city dwellings

The 2010 Statistics New Zealand survey oapartment dwellers in Auckland Wellington,and Christchurch in 2006 indicated that 49%o inner city apartment dwellers were agedbetween 20 and 29 years, and 24% o non innercity dwellers. These gures were well ahead oa 13% share o the national population.

By contrast, only around 15% o people livingin inner city and 25% in outer city apartmentswere aged over 50 years, compared with a 29%share o the total population.

The young adults who have dominated theexpansion o inner city apartment living ormonly 11% o the gain projected in the smallhousehold group in Canterbury.

Their declining share o the market raisesquestions over how ar the momentum theyhave provided or apartment dwelling incentral city locations will be sustained.By contrast, the empty nester group accounts

or 47% o the expansion among the couplesand single-dominated age in Christchurch.These people are more important early in theperiod, but the weight swings progressively tothe early retired group later.In act, people aged over 50 years account oraround 55% o all projected population growthin Auckland, 52% in Wellington, and 53% inChristchurch.

While the projections are indicative only, thestrong inerence is that the projected growthin demand or smaller houses is shiting romthe young adults and non-amily householdswith whom they have been associated to aast expanding empty nester segment andincreasingly the early retirement segment.

This may even help explain an apparently slowuptake o medium density housing, suggesting

that older couples do not necessarily downsizetheir housing, at least not until well ater thechildren have let home. Many also avourremaining in amiliar neighborhoods when

they do downsize. The assumption that agrowing number o smaller households willlit demand or centralised, multi-unit andmulti-storey housing may be a misreadingo current market preerences among those

cohorts which are now behind the increase insmaller households. (Dunbar & McDermott,2011)

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

49/108

49

Make up o amily type in the Central CitySource: Statistics New Zealand Data Set, 2006

Projected Distribution o Younger and Older Adults, 2006-2031Source: Statistics New Zealand, 2006

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

50/108

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

51/108

4.7 Current Housing SupplyA di t St ti ti N Z l d i 6

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

52/108

52

74%

22%

4%

Christchurch Dwelling Type 2006

Separate House

Two or more Flats or Houses Joined Together

Private Dwelling Not Further Defined

Others


Source: Statistics New Zealand , 2006

According to Statistics New Zealand, in 2006,there was a total o 134,718 private occupieddwellings in Christchurch.

This is an additional 31,035 occupied dwellings

(30%) since 1986. Almost all o this growth wasin private dwellings.

Separate houses continue to be the maindwelling type in the City (74%). There has beenan increase o 23,270 separate houses between1986 and 2006, which is an increase o 31%.

Multiunit dwellings are the second mostpopular option at 29,895. However, between

1986 and 2006, the number o private dwellingsthat were two or more ats or houses joinedtogether only increased by 4,260. This is anincrease o 16.6%.

This suggests Christchurch has a strongpreerence or the separate house typology(this is clearly shown in the chart on the right), and this needs to change i the city councilwants to implement its new plans or housing.

Housing TenureIn Christchurch City, 57.6 percent ohouseholds in private occupied dwellings ownthe dwelling, with or without a mortgage.

Christchuch is one o ew cities to have higherlevels o home ownership than the rest o NewZealand (53.8%).

What is the construction rate?933 dwellings were under construction inChristchurch City, during the 2006 StatisticsNZ Census. This compared with 13,560 under

construction throughout New Zealand.

On a population basis there is 5 times moreresidential construction in Selwyn and 6times more in Waimakariri, than there is inChristchurch City. House prices and rentsare still inating because o severe supplyrestrictions. (Cantaburians Unite, 2012)

Wh d l k?

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

53/108

53

Employment Density in Christchurch, 2010Source: Statistics New Zealand , 2010

Usual residence and place of work 2006 and 1996 Census

Usual Residence Commuting Destination

Waimakariri

District

Christchurch City Selwyn District

2006 1996 2006 1996 2006 1996

Waimakariri

District

9,033 7,398 8,931 6,579 126 99

Christchurch City 1,413 966 146,910 130,209 2,433 1,995

Selwyn District 75 39 7,767 4,833 7,968 6,474Usual Residence and place o work, 2006 and 1996 Census

Source: GCTMD, 2007

Where do people work?This map shows employment density (peopleper hectare) in metropolitan Christchurch atthe mesh block level. The central city businesszones and the citys hospitals were areas with

the highest concentration o employees.

> In 2010, there were 184,850 employees inChristchurch City. This was almost 10% o NewZealands total (1,889,900).

>Employment within the Four Avenuesaccounted or 28% o the total employmentin Christchurch. In 2010, the total employeecount within the Four Avenues was 51,270.

> Areas in and around the suburban shoppingcentres and malls also had high concentrationso employees, particularly employees in theretail trade industry.

This clearly shows a concentration o workerstowards the city centre, thus prompting ademand or housing in the inner city area.

Where do people live?Christchurchs Central City (inside the ouravenues) accommodates 30% o total cityemployment (52,000 people).

In 2006, o the people working in the CentralCity, 1602 people commuted rom the SelwynDistrict and 2031 people commuted rom theWaimakariri District. The number o peopletravelling rom the Waimakariri and Selwyn

Districts to work in Christchurch City isincreasing. (GCTMD, 2007)

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

54/108

Density of Couple Only Households, Christchurch City, 2006Christchurch City Metropolitan Area

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

55/108

55

Households Per Hectare

10 to 17

5 to 10

3 to 5

1 to 3

0 to 1

Roads

Christchurch City Metropolitan Area

Couple-Only Households

Densities o couple-only households are dispersed throughout urban areas in Christchurch. Higher densities o couple only households are located in central city and innersuburban areas.

Density of Non-Family Households, Christchurch City, 2006Christchurch City Metropolitan Area

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

56/108

56


4 to 12

3 to 4

2 to 3

1 to 2

0 to 1

Roads

Christchurch City Metropolitan Area

Non-Family Households

Higher densities o non amily households are located to west and north o the city around Riccarton and St Albans.

Density of One Parent Families, Christchurch City, 2006Christchurch City Metropolitan Area

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

57/108

57

Families Per Hectare

4 to 10

3 to 4

2 to 3

1 to 2

0 to 1

Roads

y p

One-Parent Families

Higher densities o one-parent amilies are located in inner suburban areas to the south, south-east and eastern areas o the central city.

Density of Rented Dwellings, Christchurch City, 2006Christchurch City Metropolitan Area

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

58/108

58

Dwellings Per Hectare

10 to 365 to 103 to 51 to 30 to 1

Roads

y

Rented Dwellings

Greater densities o dwellings are rented in inner suburban and central city areas. There are also higher densities o rented dwellings in areas around Riccarton.

Density of Households without a Motor Vehicle, Christchurch City, 2006Christchurch City Metropolitan Area

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

59/108

59


5 to 20

3 to 5

2 to 3

1 to 2

0 to 1

Roads

Households without a Motor Vehicle

Higher densities o households without a motor vehicle are located to the north, and north east, south and south east o the central city.

4.8 Real Estate MarketThe median house price or Christchurch

d i N b

$360,000

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

60/108

60

Average House Prices in Christchurchs major suburbs.Source: REINZ, 2011

was down rom $355,000 in November 2011 to$346,000 in December, a decrease o $9,000(2.5%).

The number o houses sold increased rom470 to 487 rom November to December 2011.(Canterbury Development Corporation, 2012)

The median house sale price as o March 2012is $352,250. There were 542 houses sold inChristchurch rom this period. Compared withonly 193 sold at a median price o $320,000 inMarch 2011. The lower price and volume osales in 2011 can be linked to the earthquakes.

The median price or the region is trending upstrongly, although there has been some easingo the median in recent months. Volumes arealso trending upwards and the number o daysto sell is also continuing to improve. (REINZ,2012)

Merivale and Fendalton are consideredto be two o the more auent suburbs in

Christchurch. Merivale has been voted thebest suburb in Christchurch in which to liveexplaining the higher house sale prices.

$270,000

$280,000

$290,000

$300,000

$310,000

$320,000

$330,000

$340,000

$350,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Median House Sale Price in ChristchurchSource: REINZ, March 2012

Mode share for all trips (Greater Christchurch, 2006)

4.9 Automobile Dependency

N Z l d h th hi h t

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

61/108

61

Source: (GCTMD,2007)

Mode share for all trips (Greater Christchurch, 2006)

Other 1.5%

Driver 53.1%

Passenger 31.5%

Bus 2.2%

Bike 2.4%

Walk 9.3%

New Zealand has one o the highest car-ownership ratios in the OECD. This is a hugeinuencing actor when it comes to urbandesign and the uture housing or Christchurch.

Christchurch travel trends snapshot:

> 34% o morning peak time travel is education-related, with over hal the children at primaryschool being driven by car; with similarnumbers being driven or driving to secondaryschool.

> 96% o cars travelling to work have a single

occupant.

> 60% o Christchurch residents drive to workcompared to 40% in Wellington.

> Car travel is still growing at 2.5% per annum -trac volumes are expected to have increasedby 27% by 2026.

> 39% o people in Canterbury reported that

they could replace car trips by walking andcycling on at least two days most weeks.

(GCTMD,2007)

4.10 Current Housing DemandHousing demand is heavily concentrated inthe main urban areas especially Auckland and

Household Growth by Region 2010-2019

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

62/108

62

the main urban areas, especially Auckland andChristchurch. Auckland accounts or around46% o total national demand growth over thenext decade with about 100,000 additional

dwellings required in total, or about 10,000dwellings annually. Canterbury is next, with12% o the national total, somewhat over 26,000additional dwellings over the decade, or about2,600-2,800 annually. (Fairgray, 2009)

Canterburys growth is predominantly inthe urban areas as dened in the GreaterChristchurch Urban Development Strategy(GCUDS), with two thirds o the growth in

Christchurch City, and one-third on the urbanringe and towns (Rangiora, Kaiapoi).

36,000 workers will be expected to come toChristchurch or the rebuild by the end o 2013,many o them will also bring their amilies.(Stu.co.nz, 2012) This short-term inux inpopulation will require an estimated 26,900dwellings by the end o 2013. The main sourceso demand will be rom the 6,000 houses

demolished in the red-zone, and the inux oworkers coming in.

Christchurch population is set to increase bymore than 70,000 in the next 30 years. So therewill be an estimated 40,600 dwellings neededby 2041.

46%

12%

9%

9%

7%

17%

Auckland

Canterbury

Wellington

Waikato

Bay of Plenty

Rest of N.Z

Source: Statistics NZ Medium Population Projection

THE DOMINO EFFECT OF THE HOUSING SHORTAGE

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

63/108

63

HOUSE PRICES AND RENTAL RATES

House prices and rental rates continue

to increase as the availability of

houses decrease, setting o a long

chain of events.

The eect of increased housing prices

arising from severe shortages could

have negative repercussions for

economic growth and living

standards.

EMPLOYMENT

A huge inux of workers are to be

expected for the re-building of

Christchurch. The lack of

accommodation poses a big problem for

the workers and their families movinginto the city. This will cause reluctance

among the workforce to migrate and

work.

It is estimated that there will be around

36,000 workers heading towards

Christchurch for the rebuild in the next

10-15 years. That equates to roughly

15,000 new households.

EDUCATION

Large amount of students have already

left the city and enrolled else-where

around the country. The lack of rental

properties and inated rental prices

leaves the incoming students with littlechoice but to l eave.

Students are nding no

accommodation, creating another

reason to bypass Christchurch for their

education for the next few years. - Peter

Townsend, Christchurch Chamber of

Commerce Chief Executive

STANDARD OF LIVING

Due to the lack of adequate housing

option after the earthquakes, many

people are living in sub-standard

houses that are damaged. Often the

houses that are still in decent conditionwill have to accommodated for more

people in the short-term, leading to

overcrowding issues.

MIGRATION

With a limited amount of housing stock

and a high price tags, Christchuch is

nd it hard to attract incoming

migrants. It is also hard to retain usual

residents; those who cannot aord anew house after their pay-out are

leaving the city seeking

accommodation elsewhere.

We have already seen a loss of 8900

people from Christchurch City due to

the earthquake. If there is no action is

taken to solve the housing problem, it

will be very dicult to attract people

back into the city.

FOR

SALE

ED

UCATION

4.11 Housing TypesA wide range o dierent house types currentlyexist within the region, rom standalone houses

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

64/108

64

Christchurch housing stock categorized into types.Source: Beacon, 2009

Household Categorized by Type and Age

Total Housing Stock : 291,273

e stw t t e eg o , o sta da o e ousesin rural and suburban settings to high riseapartments in the inner city. This section aimsto categorise these house types into a number

o core housing typologies that can be used toderive what housing needs the population mayhave in the uture.

The table to the right shows a breakdown othe housing stock in Christchurch accordingto type and age.

> The total housing stock was 291,273 in2009, according a research done by the group

Beacon.

> Single-detached housing type takes up255,720, which equates to about 88%.

> Multi-units only accounted or 35,553, whichequates to only 12%.

> Mass built detached houses rom the 1940s- 1960s dominates the housing stock in

Christchurch, with a 31% share.

> Separate house rom the 1970s - 1980saccount or 20%

> Building o multi-units post 1996 hasdecreased signicantly, at only 5,412 units.Compared to 18,172 units rom the 1960s. Thatis a 235% negative change between 1960s and1996.

4.12 Temporary HousingThe Christchurch City Council has alreadystared to take various actions to temporarily

The government is looking into the socialhousing sector to explore ways o helping

Linwood Park Village in Christchurch

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

65/108

65

p yrelieve the housing shortage. As o 24th April2012, money has been allocated to speedup repairs on Housing New Zealand and

Christchurch City rental properties. This willsignicantly help those who are struggling torecover in the quake devastated region.

Earthquake Recovery Minister Gerry Brownleesays the new initiatives will relieve pressure onthe rental market by bringing new stock intothe system. Mr. Brownlee says there are 700properties available or rent in Christchurchat present, but he admits nding suitable

accommodation is becoming harder. (RadioNew Zealand, 2012)

Key events which are bringing new housingsupply to the market are:

> Housing New Zealand has closed a tenderto speed up repair o over 600 o its quakedamaged properties, the rst 115 o which willbe available progressively rom June, 2012.

> The Earthquake Commission (EQC) hasjust agreed to pay $21 million to ChristchurchCity Council, allowing the council to beginrepairs to around 280 quake damaged rentalproperties.

> The Department o Building and Housing(DBH) will establish another new temporaryaccommodation village at Rawhiti Domain

in New Brighton, adding another 20 two-bedroom units. This will bring the totaltemporary housing stock to 83.

g p y p gthe vulnerable Cantabrians. The CanterburyEarthquake Recovery Authority (CERA) metwith o 40 representatives o social housing

agencies engaged to work on short andmedium term solutions to increasing the rentalhousing supply in Christchurch.

The Government has already built 63 housesin two temporary accommodation villagesat Linwood Park in Christchurch City andKaiapoi Domain in the Waimakariri District.The Kaiapoi village is presently 77 per centull, and the Linwood Park village is 78 per cent

ull.

Those villages are working very well orresidents who need a temporary place to staywhile essential earthquake repairs are carriedout on their homes, Mr Brownlee said.(Radio New Zealand, 2012)

Were also helping hundreds o householdsaccess temporary accommodation with

guidance and nancial support throughthe Canterbury Earthquake TemporaryAccommodation Service (CETAS), a jointventure between the Department o Buildingand Housing and the Ministry o SocialDevelopment.

Linwood Park Village in ChristchurchCity, 41 units.

Kaiapoi Domain Village in theWaimakariri district, 22 units.

Rawhiti Domain in New Brighton, 63two bedroom units coming soon...

Market SummaryIn Christchurch and Auckland, the growth

develop, and build themselves a new dwellingwhile also adding one or a ew more dwellings,

This means the delivery o residential supplyin the two major centres o growth Auckland

5.0 Summary o Findings

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

66/108

66

gstrategies are ocussing on residentialintensication within the existing metropolitanlimits, with limited outward expansion, and

a lower share o development in greeneldareas. This implies two substantial changes inthe land market in those cities.

Changes in housing typeOne is a progressive shit in the nature odemand, toward a wider range o dwellingstyles and especially toward medium and highdensity dwelling styles. Obviously, the drive orhigher density means smaller private land area

per household and per person, complicated bythe parallel trend toward greater dwelling andindoor living space per person. The aim orthe eciencies o compact cities means a shitaway rom separate dwellings, toward multi-unit dwellings, and much greater built intensityon the land. This is consistent, to some degree,with declining average household sizes as thepopulation ages.

Changes in land-useThe second is a shit in how the land supplymarket will operate. A progressively smallershare o supply will come rom relatively largegreeneld reserves, while a progressivelylarger share o supply will come throughthe intensication process, and brownelddevelopment. Intensication comes rom a seto more complex processes. One is throughdecisions by individual residential property

owners to subdivide an existing section, tot on a second dwelling, or to sell it so thatsomeone else can build. Another is also byindividual property owners decisions to re-

which usually involves a change rom oneseparate house to 2-4 town houses or units. Akey eature o these processes is that they occur

at a small scale and arise rom many individualad hoc decisions. They are not usually parto an integrated or planned process, and aredicult to orecast in other than aggregateterms (eg assume 5% o existing developedresidential properties in this area will addanother dwelling over the next decade).(Fairgray, 2009)

Urban Redevelopment

A third process is re-development o businessland to residential uses, which typically involvesmedium or high intensity residential becauseo the higher value o business land, and thehigher costs involved in redevelopment asdistinct rom greeneld growth. Related to thisis the process o combining commercial andresidential capacity on a single site, usuallywith apartments on the upper levels aboveoces. This combination o activities requires

that both commercial and residential marketsare suciently attractive to invest, especiallythe commercial which commonly accounts orthe major part o mixed development.

Residential development on business landtypically involves a medium scale o residentialcapacity (apart rom CBD apartmentsrom oce-block conversions). And thesedevelopments also tend to occur in an ad hoc

manner as opportunity arises, rather thanthrough comprehensive redevelopment oversubstantial areas. (Fairgray, 2009)

and Christchurch, accounting or close to58% o total national demand is likely to beat progressively smaller scale and based on

many individual decisions, as distinct rom thetypically larger scale which has characterisedgreeneld developments on the urban edge, inthe past.

Profile of the Target Market / Sub-marketThe gathered inormation on demographicso the Christchurch City area has identiedseveral key housing markets to address, to

ensure the correct housing typology will besupplied. These are:

1. Young Single Households2. Couples without children who are highincome earners3. Elderly / Empty Nesters trending4. Average household size is decreasing5. Educated working population / Studentsworking towards a degree

6. Proessionals with medium to high incomesand disposable income7. Working population in the trade area withmedium to high income

What we need right now housing wise:

New housing or 36,000+ workers coming intoChristchurch by end o 2013.

40,600 new housing in the next 30 years orpotential students, workers and growingamilies. Trending older age-groups, especiallythe empty nesters.

Changing Demographics andDemandThe make-up o society is changing, and that

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

67/108

67

74% 22%

+

Source: 2006 Census of Population and Dwellings

Christchurch Housing Stock

1 BEDROOM HOUSES (5.4%)

2 BEDROOM HOUSES (23.9%)

3+ BEDROOM HOUSES (67.7%)

Source: 2006 Census of Population and Dwellings

,

,,

,

,

,

,

,

change will have a long term eect on theway people live. This shit is evident aroundthe developed world with populations aging

and ewer couples having large amilies. Inthe coming years, it is predicted that only aquarter o households will include children,while a third will contain just one person.

The trend is emerging in Christchurch. Thelast Census highlights the present situation:a quarter o the houses are occupied by oneperson, while over a third contain two, withthe number o people per house predicted to

reduce rom 2.5 (2006) to 2.2 (2041). Yet despitethe act that nearly 60% o all local householdsare made up o one or two people, our housingstock continues to be dominated by large,stand-alone homes - with two-thirds o whichhave three or more bedrooms.

This mismatch between smaller householdsand large size o the average Christchurchhouse - coupled with increasing costs o

construction materials, nancing and homemaintenance - is leading to a signicantimbalance in supply and demand.

Christchurch HouseholdsSource: 2006 Census of Population and Dwellings

1 PERSON (25.1%)

2 PEOPLE (34.5%) 3+ PEOPLE (40.4%)

Year 2011

Year 2016POPULATION

AGE

Christchurch Population ChangeProjected from 2006 (Stats NZ)

UNDER 45 OVER 45

660

-840

15,030

29,77030,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

6.0 Urban Strategy

Density of Christchurch Living Zones

6.1 Where Do We Live?

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

68/108

68

Christchurch CityNet Density (2001) = 26.6 pp/haIncrease in Density (1991-2001) = 2.3 pp/ha

LEGEND

Living H

Living 4

Living 3

Living 2Living 1

Commercial andBusiness Zones

Urban Boundary

Dwelling Density in the Christchurch Living Zones

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

69/108

69

LIVING 1 LIVING 2 LIVING 3 LIVING 4

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

Living 4Net Density (2001) = 45.1 pp/haIncrease in Density (1991-2001) = 7.4 pp/ha




13 Dwellings Per Hectare 18 Dwellings Per Hectare 33 Dwellings Per Hectare 40+ Dwellings Per Hectare

Christchurch City is separated into 4 living zones within the urban limits, each zone has its own density bracket, getting concentrically denser closer to the CBD. Living 1 mostly suburbandevelopments, with a low dwelling density o 13 dwellings per hectare. Living 2 slightly denser with subdivisions, and smaller sections. Living 3 a combination o subdivisions and multiple- units.Living 4 supposedly the most dense, being close to the CBD. This zone is made up o mostly high density multi-units, with about 45 dwellings per hectare.

6.2 What Sort o Houses Do We Want to Live In?

Historically, Christchurch houses have beenphysically separated rom each other, witheach house contained within its own site This

BEFORE

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

70/108

70

each house contained within its own site. Thiscan been seen in the relationship o buildingsto each other and to the street at the start o thelast century.

These images show the typical relationship obuildings to each other and to the street at thestart o the last century.

The idea o a suburb was to promotecommunity and identity. However what we seehere lacks both, it achieved the opposite eect;o isolating amilies with no relation to context.

Settlers huts at Riccarton. Looking towards Papanui rom St Albans, Christchurch,1906.

Merivale and St. Albans rom the spire o the St Albans Methodist Church, Rugby Street running through the center, 1922. (Source: Christchurch City Libraries,CCL)

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

71/108

FUTURE

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

72/108

72

We need to introduce new housing typologieswithin the inner city, with high qualitycommunity green areas. There are greatexamples o alternative housing with a high

level o connection with the street and withoutside boundary setbacks.

High density development associated withconsolidation requires good quality urbandesign. This includes increasing density whilemaintaining character and amenity, providingdierent types o open space, establishingrelationships with the street and neighbors,and designing streets which better balance the

needs o pedestrians, cyclists and motorists.

Beaumont Quarter Apartments by Studio Pacic Architects.

Bloembollenho Village by S333Source: www.s333.org/

Beaumont Quarter Apartments by Studio Pacic Architects.Source: www.studiopacifc.co.nz/

Courtyard Houses, Seatoun, Wellington by Studio Pacic Architects (Source: www.studiopacifc.co.nz/)

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

73/108

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

74/108

74

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

75/108

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

76/108

76

The concept or the Beaumont QuarterDevelopment Stage One houses was tocombine aordable housing with innovatived i th t i d ith th

Studio Pacific ArchitectsBeaumont Quarter Stage One Housing, Auckland. 2003

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

77/108

77

design that mixes modern orms with therichness o the historic brickwork buildings.While the housing typologies are diverse, theyare all contemporary variations on the themeo terrace housing and include split-level,patio, lantern, cube, lot, and screen houses.

A careully terraced arrangement maximisesnatural light and city views. In order to achieveaordability, the design approach was keptconceptually simple and streamlined, ocusingon one or two spatial elements within eachhousing type.

The houses are arranged around large inormallandscape spaces, with pedestrian walkwayslinking all green areas. Nearly all houses havea private open courtyard or garden and directaccess to the outside. As a result, the housingis well-integrated into the public realm, witha series o relaxed urban spaces transitioningrom public to private.

Location: Beaumont Quarter, Auckland

Unit size: N/A

Number o units: 58 houses, 12 apartments,and 2 studio apartments.

Units per hectare: N/A

Source: http://www.studiopacifc.co.nz/

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

78/108

78

Source: http://www.studiopacifc.co.nz/

This is a brave example o high density, lowrise, contemporary, urban residential design.The apartments are placed careully around acentral secure courtyard The street and city

Cymon Allfrey ArchitectsWilton Close Multiple Housing, Christchurch. 2008

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

79/108

79

central, secure courtyard. The street and cityare remote, and a simple palette o materialsand colour provide a strong sense o identity.

Sealed concrete block, black proled metalcladding and white, cantilevered balconiesprovide a playul yet unied whole. The resultis inner city living as envisaged by the citygrowth strategy.

The judging panel o the CanterburyArchitecture Awards described Wilton Close,as a brave example o high density, low rise,contemporary, urban residential design.

It was marvellous to see an architect and adeveloper redene and explore how intensecity living can work. (NZIA, 2010)

Source: http://www.architecturenz.net

6.4 Hidden Costs o Living in the Suburbs.

SPRAWL INTENSIFICATION

Comparison of a sprawling city versus a compact city

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

80/108

80

$580 Million

Source: GCUDS, 2007

3846 hectares

Location for new housing

Public infrastructure cost for new housing

New Housing Type / Choice

Land for 50,000 new houses

79% new subdivisions

(Spread across districts in townsand rural subdivisions)

21% urban renewal

(Christchurch inner suburbs)

$430 Million

less than 1500 hectares

(uses 40% less land than Sprawl)

40% new subdivisions

(Around edge of townsand Christchurch )

60% urban renewal(Christchurch Central City

and inner suburbs)

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

81/108

Comparison of a sprawling city versusa compact city (pg. 80)The GCUDS partnership proposes to intensiythe city controlling sprawl at the urban ringe

Comparison of intensified land-usescenario (pg. 81)Looking at the new development at HigheldPark or example it oers 2200 sections at

Hidden costs of living in the suburbs(pg. 82)A study o 27 American metropolitan areas bythe Centre or Housing Policy ound that the

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

82/108

82

the city, controlling sprawl at the urban ringe.The plan aims to change the intensication

versus greeneld development ratio rom25:75, to 60:40 by 2041.

The intensication strategy ultimately leadsto 40% less land use, and saves $150 millionon inrastructure costs. We would make useo the existing inrastructure within the urbanboundary, rather than laying out new networksto new suburban development.

By starting new suburbs on the edge o thecity, we only build houses not communities.We are also burdened with the expense onew inrastructure and increased commutingtimes.

Park or example, it oers 2200 sections atabout 800 square meters each.

However, we can comortably double theamount o dwellings per section.

With more intensication, we can achieve8800 dwellings on the same amount o land iwe build two dwellings per 400 square metersections.

the Centre or Housing Policy ound that thecost o commuting cancels any savings on

lower-priced suburban homes. (Kim, 2012)

Most people do not consider the hidden costso living in the suburbs. While oil prices areonly going to go up, and the daily parking costsin the city center is getting more expensive.

In the scenario on the next page, the personliving at the ringe has to drive to workeveryday. While the person living in the citycan use a bicycle.

It is estimated that you can save:> $6448 by biking to work per year.> 156 hours sitting in you car per year.> 1.3 tones o CO2 emissions per year.

The suburban lie-style gives people aalse sense o aordability. There are manyhidden costs attached to the new suburbandevelopments at the urban-ringe.

City land maybe more expensive, but i we builddenser, and share the cost o land (assumingbuilding cost is the same), city living canbe more aordable. Or in some cases, evencheaper considering all the hidden costs.

Cantabrians have weathered the earthquakewith the support o our communities. Inrebuilding we have the opportunity tostrengthen and upgrade the inrastructure,homes and acilities o our existingcommunities.

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

83/108

Mortgage scenario for the fringesThis is example scenario o buying a cheaphouse at the ringes. With the current interestrates and a average repayment o $240 perweek. The home buyer is 24 years old.

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

84/108

84

Mortgage Amount

$200,000

Repayments

$240 per week

Interest Rate

6% floating

Total you will pay

$678,075

Interest of

$478,075

Age repaid by

77

Time to repay

55 years

FRINGE

Due to commuting costs, we are not able to

make more repayments per week, incurringhigher interests and a prolonged period orepayments.

I we add the $124 spent on transport costs,there is a potential saving o $360,826 overall.It will also cut 17 years o repayment.

Mortgage scenario o buying a house at the ringes.Source: www.sorted.org.nz/calculators/mortgage-repayment

Mortgage scenario for the cityThis is example scenario o buying a house inthe city center. The home buyer is 24 years old.With the current interest rates and a averagerepayment o $364 per week.

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

85/108

85

Mortgage Amount

$189,833

Repayments

$364 per week

Interest Rate

6% floating

Total you will pay

$290,612

Interest of

$100,779

Age repaid by

38

Time to repay

16 years

CITY

The mortgage amount is lower here due to

the higher density o living and land-sharing.We can also use that extra $124 per week thatwe are saving rom biking to work on ourrepayments.

This makes a huge dierence nancially,because it is almost three times cheaper in thelong term, and the home buyer will be 39 yearsyounger when the debts are paid o.

Again, in this scenario, we will also help reduceto hidden costs o building new inrastructure,and pollution caused by driving to work.

Mortgage scenario o buying a house in the city.Source: www.sorted.org.nz/calculators/mortgage-repayment

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

86/108

Christchurch Median Sale Price: $320000Christchurch Median Land Value: $162000Christchurch Median Floor Area: 129 sqmChristchurch Median Land Area: 600 sqm

Land cost statisticsIt is important to understand the land-costthroughout Christchurch city.

The land cost map is derived rom a data leor New Zealand house sales rom the Property

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

87/108

87

Area Unit Gross Sale Land Value Floor area Land Area (Ha) Land Area (m2) Land Cost (m2) Floor Area Cost (m2)

Merivale 516000 314000 160 0.0564 564 557$ 3,225$

Fendalton 655000 426000 200 0.0814 814 523$ 3,275$

Moncks Bay 480000 275000 130 0.0579 579 475$ 3,692$

Westburn 458000 284000 129 0.0637 637 446$ 3,550$

Strowan 535000 307000 170 0.0717 717 428$ 3,147$

Sumner 436500 258000 130 0.0607 607 425$ 3,358$

Northwood 443750 243000 206 0.06285 628.5 387$ 2,154$

Redcliffs 430000 300000 160 0.0842 842 356$ 2,688$Oaklands 489000 211000 129 0.06 600 352$ 3,791$

Riccarton 357500 162000 130 0.0464 464 349$ 2,750$

Yaldhurst 181250 140000 152 0.0403 403 347$ 1,192$

Waimairi Beach 440000 213000 203 0.06285 628.5 339$ 2,167$

Southshore 336000 207000 140 0.0612 612 338$ 2,400$

Beckenham 398000 209000 130 0.06395 639.5 327$ 3,062$

Top 15 most expensive areas according to land cost per square meter.Source: data set rom Property I.Q Residential Property Sales Statistics, 2010

or New Zealand house sales rom the PropertyIQ company.

Elements include geographic location(excluding house number), sale date and price,capital and land value, building oor area, landarea, building type

There were over 6,700 listings in Christchurchrom 2010, and the map to the let reects thatgraphically by land-cost per square meter.

Land Cost Per Square Meter in Christchurch

7/31/2019 120601_M7-BH

88/108

88

CBD

$ (per m2)

350

400

250

300

120601_M7-BH

Documents

Transcript of 120601_M7-BH