1 Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) MA, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv : Reader...

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Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal

Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) MA, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv : Reader Emeritus in Environmental Engineering , Norwich

Business School, University of East Anglia, Norwich

Institution of Civil Engineers Leeds: October 14th 2014

The Energy Trilema:The Challenges of Energy Security and Affordability of our

Future Energy Supplies

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The Triple Challenges of Carbon Reduction, Energy Security and Cost of our Future Energy Supplies

Some of the Key issues

•What are key issues of Energy Security, particularly in the next few years with older stations closing and UK now dependent on over 50% of its gas from imported sources and also two thirds of its coal?•What might the future electricity generation mix look like?•How does UK energy mix compare with that of other countries?•What contribution might “Fracking” provide for security for electricity generation?•To what extent would variable renewables such as wind cause issues on the secure supply of electricity?•What are the cost implications of the options available?•What is the impact of support for renewables on the price of electricity?•Are the lights likely to go out over the next few years?

Weekly volume weighted average Wholesale PricesWholesale prices are 2.5 times what they were in 2004

Wholesale Cost of Electricity

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UK no longer self sufficient

in gas

UK Government Projection in 2003 for 2020

Oil reaches $130 a barrel

Langeled Line to Norway

Severe Cold Spells

wholesale prices updated to 16th September 2014

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Variation in Wholesale and Retail Electriity Prices

In recent years, electricity retail prices have varied much less than wholesale prices. However in recent months retail prices have risen above long term wholesale trends.

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What are causes of price rises in recent years? • In period 2004-13, Electricity Bills for average household

have risen from ~ £288 to around ~£577 or ~100% * How much can be attributed to support for Renewables

under the Renewable obligation? • Support for All Renewables in 2012-13 was £1.99 billion **. However 313,569,728 MWh was supplied representing an increase of 0.69 p/kWh in retail price of

electricity • At typical domestic unit prices of 13 – 14p per kWh this

represents and increase of just 4.9%. • Of this the impact of onshore wind on bills in 2012-13 was

0.22p per kWh or ~ 1.7%. For offshore the figures are 0.16p and 1.2% respectively.

• Wholesale prices had risen from 2p in 2004 to 4.5p per kWh by end of 2013.

* Data from Quarterly Energy Prices from DECC Website** OFGEM Annual Report

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CO2 Emissions and Electricity (kg/kWh)

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France

UK

Overall: UK ~500 gm/kWh: France ~80 gm/kWh Saudi Arabia ~700 gm/kWh* Extracted from IEA Statistics in Jan 2014 – data relate to 2010

World Average 0.550

Electricity Generation Mix in selected Countries 2010

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Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro/ Tidal/Wave Other Renewables Biofuels/Waste

Approximate Carbon Emission factors during electricity generation including fuel extraction, fabrication and transport.

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Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions.

Fuel Approximate emission factor

per kWh

Comments

Coal ~900 – 1000g Depending on grade and efficiency of power station

Oil ~800-900 Depending on grade and efficiency of power station

Gas (Steam) ~600g Conventional Steam StationGas (CCGT) ~400g Most modern stations may be as

low as 380gNuclear 5 – 10g Depending on reactor typeRenewables ~ 0 For wind, PV, hydro

• Transmission/Distribution losses UK ~ 8%: India ~ 24%* DECC Guidance for reporting July 2014

Overall UK including transmission ~541g* Varies on hour by hour basis

depending on generation mix

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Import Gap

Impact of temporary switch to coal generation

Gas supply has become critical at times – e.g. at end of March 2013 – down to 6 hours supply following technical problems on Norwegian Pipeline.

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

Generation Type

Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers

Predicted Cost in 2020

2011 (*) Dec 2013 (*)

Gas CCGT 0 - 70% (at present 25-35%)

Available now (but gas is running out)

8.0p[5 - 11]/kWh 8.5p/kWh

* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Inst

alle

d C

apac

ity (M

W)

New Build ?ProjectedActual

Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2020.

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

Generation Type

Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers


2011 (*) Dec 2013 (*)

Gas CCGT 0 - 70% (at present 25-35%)

Available now (but gas is running out)

8.0p[5 - 11] 8.5p/kWh

nuclear fission

5 - 10% (France 75 - 80%) - (currently 18-

20% and falling)

Long construction times (capital cost for

Hinkley increased from £16 billion to

£24.5 billion

7.75p [5.5 - 10]

/kWh

9.25p (Hinkley)/

kWh

nuclear fusion unavailable not available until 2040 at earliest not until

2050 for significant impact

"Clean Coal"

Coal currently ~40% but scheduled to fall

Available now: Not viable without Carbon

Capture & Sequestration

[7.5 – 15p] - unlikely

before 20259.5 – 13.4p/

kWh

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

1.5MW TurbineAt peak output provides sufficient electricity for 3000 homes – operating for 12 years

On average has provided electricity for 700 – 850 homes depending on year

On Shore Wind

~20% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]

available now for commercial exploitation

~8.2p +/- 0.8p

9.0–9.9p / kWh

Generation

TypePotential contribution to electricity supply in

2020 and drivers/barriers


2011 (*) Gas 8p

Dec 2013 (*) Gas 8.5p

* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011

* Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection

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Scroby Sands has a Load factor of 28.8% - 30% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich

Off Shore Wind 20 - 40%

some technical development needed to

reduce costs.

12.5p +/- 2.5p

11.5 – 12.0p/ kWh

On Shore Wind

~20% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]


~8.2p +/- 0.8p

9.0–9.9p/ kWh

Generation

TypePotential contribution to electricity supply

in 2020 and drivers/barriers


May 2011 (*) Gas 8p

Dec 2013 (*) Gas 8.5p


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Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill,

Norfolk.

Rated capacity 5.5 kW

Hydro (inc. mini - micro) 5% technically mature, but

limited potential

11p for <2MW projects

Not Costed



reduce costs.

12.5p +/- 2.5p 11.5 – 12.0p

On Shore Wind

~20% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]


~8.2p +/- 0.8p

9.0 – 9.9p/ kWh

Generation




May 2011 (*) Gas 8p

Dec 2013 (*) Gas 8.5p


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Photovoltaic

<5% even assuming 10

GW of installation

available, and costs are coming down – but low

load factors

25p +/-8 13-15p (2012

projection)

12.3p/ kWh


Hydro (mini - micro) 5% technically mature, but

limited potential


Not Costed



reduce costs.

12.5p +/- 2.5p 11.5 – 12.0p

On Shore Wind

~20% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]


~8.2p +/- 0.8p 9.0–9.9p

Generation




May 2011 (*) Gas 8p

Dec 2013 (*) Gas 8.5p

Climate Change Report 2011 suggests that 1.6 TWh (0.4%) in 2020 - ~ 2.0 GW. But 2.1 GW already installed (Oct. 2014)

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Sewage, Landfill, Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas

??5% but could be larger with

significant imports

available, but research needed in some areas e.g. advanced gasification. Questions over sustainability

9 - 13p depending on

technology

Not Costed


limited potential


Not Costed



reduce costs.

12.5p +/- 2.5p

11.5 – 12.0p/ kWh

On Shore Wind

~20% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]


~8.2p +/- 0.8p

9.0–9.9p/ kWh

Generation




May 2011 (*) Gas 8p

Dec 2013 (*) Gas 8.5p


Photovoltaic<5% even

assuming 10 GW of installation

available, and costs are coming down – but low

load factors

25p +/-8 13-15p (2012 projection)

12.3p/ kWh

To provide 5% of UK electricity needs will require an area the size of Norfolk and Suffolk devoted solely to biomass

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Wave/Tidal Stream

currently < 20 MW ?? 1000 -

2000 MW (~0.1%)

technology limited - major development not

before 2020

19p Tidal 26.5p Wave Not Costed


limited potential


Not Costed

Off Shore Wind 20 - 40% development needed to

reduce costs.12.5p

+/- 2.5p11.5 –

12.0p/ kWh

On Shore Wind

~20% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]


~8.2p +/- 0.8p

9.0–9.9p/ kWh

Generation




May 2011 (*) Gas 8p

Dec 2013 (*) Gas 8.5p

Photovoltaic <<5% even assuming 10 GW of installation

further research needed to bring down costs significantly

25p +/-8 (13-15p) 12.3p

BIOMASS ??5% Questions over sustainability 9 – 13p Not Costed


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limited potential


Not Costed


reduce costs.12.5p

+/- 2.5p 11.5 – 12.0p

On Shore Wind

~20% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]


~8.2p +/- 0.8p 9.0–9.9p



25p +/-8 (13-15p) 12.3p


Generation




May 2011 (*) Gas 8p

Dec 2013 (*) Gas 8.5p

Open Hydro commissioned off Eday – Sept 2007

Alstom Device seen at Hatston April 2013

Wave/Tidal Stream

currently < 20 MW ?? 1000 -

2000 MW (~0.1%)


before 2020

19p Tidal 26.5p Wave Not Costed


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Tidal Barrages / Lagoons

5 - 15%technology available but unlikely for 2020. ?? Swansea Bay Lagoon

26p +/-5 Not Costed


limited potential


Not Costed


reduce costs.12.5p

+/- 2.5p 11.5 – 12.0p

On Shore Wind

~20% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]


~8.2p +/- 0.8p 9.0–9.9p



25p +/-8 (13-15p) 12.3p


Generation




May 2011 (*) Gas 8p

Dec 2013 (*) Gas 8.5p


Wave/Tidal Stream

currently < 20 MW ?? 1000 - 2000

MW (~0.1%)


before 202019p Tidal

26.5p Wave Not Costed

Severn Barrage/ Mersey Barrages have been considered frequently

e.g. pre war – 1970s, 2009Severn Barrage could provide 5-8%

of UK electricity needs

In Orkney – Churchill BarriersOutput ~80 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south.

Would save 40000 tonnes of CO2

The Royal Oak was sunk 75 years ago this evening (14th October) with the loss of 800 lives.

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Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity


5 - 15% technology available but unlikely for 2020

26p +/-5 Not Costed


limited potential


Not Costed


reduce costs.12.5p

+/- 2.5p 11.5 – 12.0p

On Shore Wind

~20% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]


~8.2p +/- 0.8p 9.0–9.9p



25p +/-8 (13-15p) 12.3p


Generation




May 2011 (*) Gas 8p

Dec 2013 (*) Gas 8.5p

Wave/Tidal Stream

currently < 20 MW ?? 1000 - 2000

MW (~0.1%)





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Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity


5 - 15% technology available but unlikely for 2020

26p +/-5 Not Costed


limited potential


Not Costed


reduce costs.12.5p

+/- 2.5p11.5 –

12.0p/ kWh

On Shore Wind

~20% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]


~8.2p +/- 0.8p

9.0–9.9p/ kWh



25p +/-8 (13-15p) 12.3p /kWh


Generation




May 2011 (*) Gas 8p

Dec 2013 (*) Gas 8.5p

Wave/Tidal Stream

currently < 20 MW ?? 1000 - 2000

MW (~0.1%)





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Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?. Offshore Wind much more expensive. Solar PV is now mature but also more expensive than on shore wind.

Tidal and wave are not options for next 10 - 15 years except as demonstration projects. [technically immature ]

If our answer is NODo we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ? Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal?

• then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly• unless we can develop significant carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY – confirmed by Climate Change Committee [9th May 2011]

If our answer to coal is NO

Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

Our Choices: They are difficult

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Our Choices: They are difficultIf our answer is YESBy 2020

• the UK will be dependent on GAS for around 70% of our heating and electricity

The majority of which will be imported at volatile prices from countries such as Norway, Russia, Middle East

Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>If not:We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.

Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?

Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?

Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making – not merely be against one technology or another

Impact of Fracking on Electricity Supply to 2030

Output declines by 95% over first 3-4 yearsTotal output from Fracking Well over 20 years is equivalent to two 3 MW wind turbines 23

Based on Figure 3.1 in Tyndall (2011b) Report

The most optimistic scenario data from above are used Electricity Scenario assumes •similar split of gas use for electricity / non-electricity demand•5% improvement in efficiency for CCGT generation plant•Maximum generation from Fracked gas = ~36.5 TWh by 2030

Estimates of Total UK Production of Fracked Gas

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Assume Highest Projection for Fracked GasFuture Demand – Climate Change Committee (2011) estimates• Assuming significant growth in electricity for electric vehicles

and heat pumps• Alternative demand – limited growth in electric vehicles and

heat pumps.Renewable Generation• Current Projections for Onshore and Offshore wind• 1 million homes/year fitted with PV ~ 40% fitted by 2030 • Severn Tidal Barrage or equivalent completed by 2025Fossil Fuel/Nuclear Generation• Existing Nuclear / Coal Stations close as published 09/09/2013• New Nuclear completions at one reactor per year from 2021.• New Coal with CCS as demonstration schemes @ 300 MW per

annum from 2020 & 1000 MW per annum from mid 2020sGas including Fracked Gas will cover any shortfall between

DEMAND and COAL + NUCLEAR + RENEWABLE GENERATION

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Future Scenarios for Electricity Generation up to 2030

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Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation

Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.

Existing Coal

Existing Nuclear

Oil

Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

TW

H (b

illio

ns o

f uni

ts (k

Wh)

)

Existing Coal

UK GasImported Gas

New Nuclear?

New Coal ?

Existing Nuclear

Other Renewables

Offshore WindOnshore WindOil

Data for demand derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.

Fracked Gas

Limited electric cars or heat pumps

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26th Sep 27th Sep 28th Sep 29th Sep 30th Sep

Graph shows Wind Energy Prediction 48 and 24 hours in advance and also actual output. Predictions are now very good

Data abstracted from BMReports Website

Predictability of UK Wind GenerationTo what extent would variable renewables such as wind cause issues on the secure supply of electricity?

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How Predictable is Wind Energy?

Predictions made for each hour in 2013 had a correlation of 96.48%

Predictions made for each hour in 2014 have had a correlation of 97.06% up to 5th October 2014

Data abstracted daily from BMReports Website. Last occurrence at 08:30 on 6th October 2014

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06th October 2014

To GBFrom GB

Data abstracted from BMReports Website at 21:30 on 6th October 2014

• Net Generation in GB rises from 18941MW at 0500 to 38195MW at 0800 an increase of 19254MW in 3 hours.

• Maximum change in Wind Output in a 3 hour period on day was 2460 MW (on this occasion it reduced the net generation demand change).

Does Wind Variability cause problems with other generation?

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Since 2012 load factors of Gas, Hydro, Onshore Wind, Offshore Wind and Bioenergy have been comparable close to 30% Load Factor

Variation of Load Factors over last 15 years

Data abstracted from DUKES (2014) Tables 5.9 & 6.5

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Annual Wind Variations are in phase with Demand

Wind Load Factor Variations follow general demand trend. Solar Load Factor trend is complementary to that of wind

Data for 2013 abstracted from DECC, Elexon and BMReports Websites – Oct 1st – 5th 2014

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Generation at the Domestic LevelEnergy Generation•Solar thermal - providing hot water - most suitable for domestic installations, hotels – generally less suitable for other businesses

•Solar PV – providing electricity - suitable for all sizes of installation

• Example 2 panel ( 2.6 sqm ) in Norwich – generates 826kWh/year (average over 7 years).

• The more hot water you use the more solar heat you get!

• Renewable Heat Incentive available from 2014

• Area required for 1 kW peak varies from ~ 5.5 to 8.5 sqm depending on technology and manufacturer

• Approximate annual estimate of generation

= installed capacity * 8760 * 0.1hours in year load/capacity factor of 10%

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Current and Future Generation Costs

Effective Renewable Costs

ROC banding introduced

Volume Weighted Average wholesale prices over yearEffective Renewable Costs = Wholesale Price + ROC Value

In the Next 10 Years

• Energy Security and Cost issues in the UK will become just as important as Carbon reduction and at times supply could become critical.

• New nuclear and coal will not be available until after 2020 and there will be an increasing dependance on imported gas at volatile prices.

• Renewables such as Wind are now very predictable at the 24 hour time scale and can be used strategically with gas generation for a supply which is secure and can respond to demand.

• Currently support for renewables is less than 10% of retail prices.

• The UK needs a diverse mix of nuclear, renewables and fossil fuels to provide the resources to tackle the Trilema of Climatye Change, Energy Security and the Cost of Future Energy

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The future is our Responsibility

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Are there likely to be issues on security in next few years?• Closure of Nuclear Stations

• Hinkley Point B and Hunterston are down rated at 70%.• Heysham 1, Hinkley Point B, Hartlepool, and Hunterston have all been

affected by cracking which may mean up to 4 units out of action until end of December

• pose questions on extended lives indicated above.

Station Type Capacity Started Closure*Wylfa Magnox 490 1971 2015Heysham 1 AGR 2 x 580 1983/4 2019Dungeness B AGR 2 x 545 1983/5 2028Heysham 2 AGR 2 x 615 1988 2023Hartlepool AGR 2 x 595 1983/4 2024Hinkley Point B AGR 2 x 610 (430) 1976 2023Hunterston B AGR 2 x 610 (430) 1976/7 2023Torness AGR 2 x 625 1988/9 2023Sizewell B PWR 1188 1995 2035

* World Nuclear Association – September 2014

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Coal Capacity (GW)

Scheduled Closure Actual Closure

Cockenzie 1.2

By end of 2015

or before if 20000 hours running since 1st Jan 2008 has been exceeded

March 2013Didcot A 2 March 2013Ironbridge 1.0 End 2015Kingsnorth 2 March 2013Tilbury 1.1 October 2013OilFawley 1 March 2013Grain 1.4 December 2012Littlebrook D 1.1 March 2015

Are there likely to be issues on security in next few years?

• Closure of Coal/Oil Stations

Above stations opted out of the Large Combustion Plant Directive and must close by end of 2015 at latest.

On October 6th 2014 – an announced was made that Longannet (2.23 GW) may also close in 2017 even though it complies with the LCPD

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Strategies being taken by National Grid

Demand Side Balancing Reserve (DSBR)Providing opportunity for large industrial consumers to shed load between period 32 (i.e. 16:00hrs) and period 40 (20:00 hours) over the Triad Period November to February. Consumers will be paid for such action.

Planned reduction of 570MW for 2014/15 (or ~ 1% of peak demand) And 1140MW for 2015/16

Modelling of impact has been done on the basis of the Value of Lost Load payments at £17 per kWh – implying total payments of up to £1.15 M per day over the Triad Period

Supplementary Balancing Reserve (SBR) provision is also planned – i.e having plant which have been mothballed or closed available for providing capacity.

Are there likely to be issues on security in next few years?

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The future is our Responsibility

Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

“If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.”

And Finally

We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making on energy – both on supply and demand.

We must promote Energy Conservation and develop a coherent generation mix to provide a low carbon, energy secure and affordable future, not only for electricity but also for heat and transport.

Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 )

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Arctic Sea Ice Cover 1979 - 2012

• Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 1979 ~ 7.01 million sq km• Red line outlines extent for reference• Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 2012 ~ 3.44 million sq km a loss of 51% in 33 years• Significantly lower in 2012 than average minimum• Source http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-seaicemin.html

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How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?

5 hot air balloons per person per year.

On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.

"Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."

Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

Raising Awareness

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Raising Awareness

• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.

• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.

• Standby on electrical appliances up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year)

• A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year.

• Filling up with petrol (~£55 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)

How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?

1.6 miles

At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai

上海徐汇区高第一小学

• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.

School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

1 Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) MA, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv : Reader...

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Transcript of 1 Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) MA, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv : Reader...