운송플랫폼 (비중확대) Winner of the Cycle
52
Transcript of 운송플랫폼 (비중확대) Winner of the Cycle
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I. 4
II. 15
III. 31
Top Picks 40
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Mirae Asset Securities Research4 | 2021 Outlook []
• , 50% , 30% , 30%
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Mirae Asset Securities Research5 | 2021 Outlook []
• (RPK ),
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• 14 30(2023)
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: IATA,
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• 75%
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Mirae Asset Securities Research8 | 2021 Outlook []
• , 19 3
• 2019 40%
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Mirae Asset Securities Research10 | 2021 Outlook []
• ,
• LCC LUV(SouthWest)
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EBITDA
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Mirae Asset Securities Research11 | 2021 Outlook []
• , +12% : -4%
• ,
• :
: IATA,
Mirae Asset Securities Research12 | 2021 Outlook []
I. :
, L/F indicator
: IATA,
• 10%pt
•
•
:
I. :
IATA ,
: IATA,
• ,
•
•
:
: 21 YoY 19
: IATA,
I. :
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• :
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: Bloomberg,
• PBR 2
• 10 1.0
•
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PBR vs. BDI
: Bloomberg, Thompson Reuters,
PBR vs. BDI
: Bloomberg, Thompson Reuters,
Mirae Asset Securities Research16 | 2021 Outlook []
• : MAERSK, , -
• : ,
• : -
Watch List
Global Shipping Watch List
: Bloomberg,
() 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F
028670 KS 3,999 8.2 8.4 1.2 1.1 9.8 7.6
2343 HK 2,197 12.6 14.5 1.3 1.2 5.6 5.5
COSCO 600026 CH 4,560 7.7 9.8 0.8 0.7 - -
601872 SH 6,801 12.2 12.8 1.5 1.3 12.8 9.1
MAERSK MAERSKB DC 61,864 13.6 10.7 1.5 1.4 5.9 6.6
601919 CH 52,979 21.4 15.2 2.8 2.4 8.8 9.5
Hapag-Lloyd AG HLAG GR 44,683 21.0 15.8 3.1 2.9 9.7 11.2
Mirae Asset Securities Research17 | 2021 Outlook []
• 10 38.2%
• 2010 3(16%)
•
• 19
: Alphaliner,
Mirae Asset Securities Research18 | 2021 Outlook []
• 8 (+) ,
• SCFI : ,
•
:
SCFI
: ‘5 -’ ‘5 ’ 16~20
: Thompson Reuters Datastream,
vs.
: Bloomberg,
• ( 2.7%, 0.63 TEU)
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: Clarksons,
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• : 5%
• 30 :
• : ?
:
: Clarksons,
Mirae Asset Securities Research23 | 2021 Outlook []
• BDI 3,000 : 5
• , : 2010 ?
- 2,800 4,000pt? 2010
• :
:
BDI
: ‘5 -’ ‘5 ’ 16~20
: Thompson Reuters Datastream,
BDI vs. CAPESIZE –
: Clarksons,
II. : ,
• 2018 : 40,000
• 3,5 25,000 2
• 5
: Clarksons,
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• :
•
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• 2Q21 :
: Clarksons,
Mirae Asset Securities Research26 | 2021 Outlook []
• :
• : 10
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:
: Bloomberg, KOMIS,
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: Bloomberg,
II. : IMO
•
• 2018 IMO 2050 50% ,
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• : / .
:
IMO
2008
'0'
Mirae Asset Securities Research28 | 2021 Outlook []
II. : IMO
• : N2 + 3H2 2NH3 4NH3 + 3O2 2N2 + 6H2O: NoX
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(°C) 25 -253 25 -162 25 25
(kPa) 1,000-1,700 101-3,600 25,000 101-125 101 101
(kg/m3) 603 (25°C ) 71 17.5 430-470 840 786
(MJ/kg) 18.6-18.8 120 120 49 43 19.7
>130 >130 >130 120 - 109
0.015 3.5 3.5 0.34 - 0.43
Mirae Asset Securities Research29 | 2021 Outlook []
Port Congestion
II. :
• , 7.8 TEU
• ,
• 7 TEU
?
YoY vs. MSCI WORLD MARINE PBR
: Clarksons, Datastream,
II. :
•
• 12, 15 22, 18 : 12
• 4Q21 :
• , 4Q21
Mirae Asset Securities Research31 | 2021 Outlook []
III. :
•
• :
• 3PL
• 2nd Tier
: Bloomberg,
:
Mirae Asset Securities Research32 |
: , Thompson Reuters, : , Thompson Reuters,
•
• 2020 1.6, 5
• :
CAPEX vs. FCF
III. :
Mirae Asset Securities Research33 |
: ,
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• 1 2 3
• 3 77%, 5 92%
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III. :
: ,
: ,
Cost Push? • : 1
• 2nd Tier, 3
• 1,500
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•
III. :
• 2021
• :
,
(LV)
: 20 2,3 21 2,3
: LMC Automotive,
: MANHEIM,
• 2021 PCC 20%
• 2020 2019
• 2022 : 2021
PCC
: Clarksons,
III. : PCC,
• PCC :
•
• , /
PCC
: Bloomberg,
III. : 19
• M/S Re-coupling
• :
• Valuation :
,
vs. PER
: Quantiwize,
[] Winner of the Cycle
1. 2. 3. ,
1. 2. 3. PCC
1. 2. 3.
Top Pick
()
(12M) () 53 40 123 279 223 249
52 () EPS () 2,309 1,741 5,393 12,235 9,754 10,934
52 () ROE (%) 2.1 1.4 3.9 7.8 5.7 6.0
(%) 1 6 12 P/E () 72.3 89.0 30.7 14.5 18.2 16.2
4.7 8.9 12.7 P/B () 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9
0.9 -8.3 -26.7 (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
: K-IFRS ,
: CJ,
CJ
KOSPI
• Cost Push - 1
•
2Q21 Preview: 1,019,
• 2 9,022(9.5% YoY): 22.2% YoY, CL 0.7% YoY
• 1,019(21.5% YoY):
• 488:
• :
• 19 :
Mirae Asset Securities Research41 | 2021 Outlook []
() 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21F 3Q21F 4Q21F 2020 2021F 2022F
2,515 2,650 2,775 2,841 2,693 2,902 3,005 2,906 10,781 11,505 11,704
CL 640 616 661 650 640 621 677 670 2,567 2,607 2,672
728 780 788 860 827 953 965 1,033 2,502 3,778 4,145
Global 996 1,062 1,175 1,153 1,130 1,178 1,232 1,083 3,905 4,624 4,375
152 192 150 178 96 150 130 120 673 496 512
58 84 93 91 48 102 116 123 325 389 434
CL 27 25 32 31 24 28 33 34 115 119 120
35 48 30 34 16 55 59 56 147 186 224
Global -7 9 22 20 10 24 25 31 44 90 92
3 2 9 5 -2 -5 -1 1 19 -7 -2
163 184 155 173 175 179 182 179 676 715 717
17 50 68 67 25 74 234 96 202 429 345
() 16 33 42 32 13 49 154 64 123 279 223
(%) 2.3 3.2 3.3 3.2 1.8 3.5 3.8 4.2 3.0 3.4 3.7
(%) 0.7 1.9 2.4 2.4 0.9 2.5 7.8 3.3 1.9 3.7 2.9
(,%) 0.5 1.4 1.7 1.7 0.7 1.8 5.6 2.4 1.1 2.4 1.9
(%) 27.3 31.8 27.7 26.2 11.7 8.0 7.0 6.0 28.2 8.1 6.0
() 1,978 1,922 1,958 1,983 1,999 2,150 2,200 2,200 1,960 2,137 2,200
:
: ,
Mirae Asset Securities Research42 | 2021 Outlook []
() () valuation ()
() 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F () 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F
10,781 11,505 11,704 12,358 2,539 2,564 2,691 2,843 P/E (x) 30.7 14.5 18.2 16.2
9,780 10,401 10,553 11,134 388 364 377 398 P/CF (x) 4.6 7.0 12.2 10.5
1,001 1,104 1,151 1,224 1,533 1,567 1,649 1,742 P/B (x) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9
676 715 717 757 25 26 27 29 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.0 18.6 16.9 16.3
325 389 434 467 593 607 638 674 EPS () 5,393 12,235 9,754 10,934
325 389 434 467 7,105 6,937 7,292 7,748 CFPS () 35,919 25,471 14,589 16,943
-123 40 -89 -80 78 80 84 89 BPS () 158,656 178,441 188,195 199,129
-108 0 0 0 3,496 3,668 4,018 4,468 DPS () 0 0 0 0
7 125 -69 -80 1,637 1,328 1,328 1,328 (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
202 429 345 387 9,643 9,501 9,983 10,591 (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
60 121 98 109 2,808 2,456 2,982 3,412 (%) 3.5 6.7 1.7 5.6
143 308 247 277 1,339 1,369 1,441 1,522 EBITDA (%) 9.2 -51.8 11.6 7.6
0 0 0 0 1,066 675 1,108 1,477 (%) 5.9 19.7 11.6 7.6
143 308 247 277 403 412 433 413 EPS (%) 209.8 126.9 -20.3 12.1
123 279 223 249 2,796 2,510 2,218 2,118 () 7.7 8.0 7.9 7.9
20 29 25 28 2,206 2,233 1,933 1,817 () 447.5 449.2 440.5 441.1
93 425 247 277 590 277 285 301 () 11.1 11.5 11.2 11.2
88 359 209 234 5,604 4,966 5,200 5,531 ROA (%) 1.5 3.2 2.5 2.7
5 67 39 43 3,338 3,789 4,012 4,262 ROE (%) 3.9 7.8 5.7 6.0
EBITDA 807 389 434 467 114 114 114 114 ROIC (%) 3.4 3.8 4.6 4.6
FCF 260 90 -121 -218 2,328 2,328 2,328 2,328 (%) 138.7 109.5 108.7 109.3
EBITDA (%) 7.5 3.4 3.7 3.8 718 993 1,215 1,464 (%) 90.4 104.4 90.2 83.3
(%) 3.0 3.4 3.7 3.8 702 746 771 798 / (%) 68.3 53.3 52.9 54.4
(%) 1.1 2.4 1.9 2.0 4,040 4,535 4,783 5,060 / (x) 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
: CJ,
()
(12M) () -168 -629 -212 250 334 391
52 () EPS () -1,128 -4,212 -1,185 772 958 1,121
52 () ROE (%) -5.1 -22.1 -7.2 5.0 4.8 5.2
(%) 1 6 12 P/E () - - - 41.3 33.2 28.4
7.8 56.2 122.0 P/B () 1.1 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.4
3.8 31.6 44.4 (%) 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
: K-IFRS ,
: ,
KOSPI
• 38,000 40,000 (PBR 1.7, 10% , )
• ,
• 1
2Q21 Preview: 1,968,
• 2 89(16.2% YoY): 21.7% YoY,
• 1,968(78.6% YoY):
• 621:
•
Mirae Asset Securities Research44 | 2021 Outlook []
(003490 KS)
() 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21F 3Q21F 4Q21F 2020 2021F 2022F
2,427 1,728 1,547 1,904 1,792 2,009 2,032 2,297 7,606 8,131 9,009
-83 110 -39 121 102 197 216 231 109 745 776
-980 231 -25 -161 -61 92 132 150 -934 313 377
() -732 123 -29 427 -54 62 133 109 -212 250 334
(%) -3.4 6.4 -2.5 6.3 5.7 9.8 10.6 10.0 1.4 9.2 8.6
(%) -40.4 13.4 -1.6 -8.5 -3.4 4.6 6.5 6.5 -12.3 3.8 4.2
(,%) -30.4 6.8 -2.1 22.2 -3.1 3.2 6.8 4.9 -2.8 3.1 3.7
RPK (%)
-29.4 -93.6 -92.6 -93.9 -92.2 -8.1 117.2 304.0 -78.2 -39.6 390.6
L/F(%) 73.3 39.1 28.2 22.3 20.6 23.0 55.7 50.0 53.6 40.3 86.4
RFTK (%)
3.1 17.2 20.1 21.2 30.2 28.0 8.4 -0.4 15.6 15.4 -2.6
L/F(%) 75.7 80.8 82.3 82.7 84.8 85.0 85.0 80.0 80.5 83.7 79.1
:
: ,
Mirae Asset Securities Research45 | 2021 Outlook []
() () valuation ()
() 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F () 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F
7,606 8,131 9,009 12,154 4,003 4,534 4,758 5,777 P/E (x) - 41.3 33.2 28.4
6,844 6,596 7,317 10,117 1,315 1,291 766 849 P/CF (x) 1.7 4.4 5.2 5.2
762 1,535 1,692 2,037 712 859 1,057 1,305 P/B (x) 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.4
653 790 915 1,238 551 665 819 1,010 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.0 9.3 8.8 8.1
109 745 776 798 1,425 1,719 2,116 2,613 EPS () -1,185 772 958 1,121
109 745 776 798 21,188 20,001 19,375 19,783 CFPS () 12,710 7,228 6,128 6,152
-1,043 -432 -399 -351 6 8 10 12 BPS () 14,170 19,495 20,453 22,886
-471 -333 -314 -256 18,482 17,296 16,657 17,037 DPS () 0 0 0 0
-1 20 20 20 268 236 208 184 (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
-934 313 377 447 25,190 24,535 24,133 25,560 (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
-111 54 36 47 7,988 6,497 6,016 6,027 (%) -38.6 6.9 10.8 34.9
-823 259 341 399 130 157 193 239 EBITDA (%) -8.0 8.9 -0.8 0.8
593 0 0 0 5,871 3,942 2,872 2,146 (%) -38.1 583.5 4.2 2.8
-230 259 341 399 1,987 2,398 2,951 3,642 EPS (%) - - 24.1 17.0
-212 250 334 391 13,891 11,121 10,859 11,418 () 11.0 10.9 9.9 10.9
-18 9 7 8 9,805 7,830 7,255 6,970 () 12.0 13.4 12.1 13.3
-132 269 341 399 4,086 3,291 3,604 4,448 () 48.4 69.2 63.0 70.6
-114 258 327 383 21,878 17,618 16,875 17,445 ROA (%) -0.9 1.0 1.4 1.6
-18 11 14 16 3,207 6,803 7,137 7,986 ROE (%) -7.2 5.0 4.8 5.2
EBITDA 2,078 2,263 2,244 2,262 877 1,745 1,745 1,855 ROIC (%) 0.5 3.3 4.0 4.1
FCF 766 1,246 1,671 1,188 1,519 3,949 3,949 4,297 (%) 660.6 254.7 232.5 215.0
EBITDA (%) 27.3 27.8 24.9 18.6 -523 -273 62 453 (%) 50.1 69.8 79.1 95.9
(%) 1.4 9.2 8.6 6.6 105 114 121 129 / (%) 414.1 140.2 115.7 87.2
(%) -2.8 3.1 3.7 3.2 3,312 6,917 7,258 8,115 / (x) 0.2 2.0 2.2 2.7
: ,
()
(12M) () 152 152 93 260 281 335
52 () EPS () 285 284 173 486 525 627
52 () ROE (%) 6.1 5.5 3.3 8.7 8.5 9.4
(%) 1 6 12 P/E () 15.6 16.0 29.0 15.4 14.2 11.9
11.6 65.1 98.4 P/B () 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.1
7.6 39.1 29.1 (%) 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7
: K-IFRS ,
: ,
KOSPI
• :
• :
2Q21 Preview: 920, 1Q21
• 7,998(17.0% YoY): BDI (2,730pt)
• 920 (43.1% YoY): ,
•
•
(028670 KS)
() 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21F 3Q21F 4Q21F 2020 2021F 2022F
559 683 634 621 680 800 712 810 2,497 3,002 3,114
390 352 357 415 440 589 507 585 1,514 2,121 2,360
39 41 33 30 27 39 45 43 143 154 178
56 68 57 66 74 82 70 70 247 297 137
139 222 188 109 139 90 90 111 659 431 439
38 64 63 60 49 92 74 78 225 293 307
31 44 56 53 36 72 66 70 183 244 281
4 10 2 -1 -2 -2 -2 1 15 -6 4
2 8 3 7 15 20 11 6 20 51 12
0 2 2 1 0 2 0 1 6 4 11
20 42 43 -13 55 80 61 64 92 261 281
() 22 42 42 -14 55 80 61 64 93 260 281
(%) 6.8 9.4 9.9 9.7 7.2 11.5 10.5 9.6 9.0 9.8 9.9
(%) 3.6 6.2 6.6 -2.2 8.0 10.0 8.5 7.9 3.6 8.7 9.0
:
: ,
Mirae Asset Securities Research48 | 2021 Outlook []
() () valuation ()
() 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F () 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F
2,497 3,002 3,114 3,321 663 1,163 1,540 1,953 P/E (x) 29.0 15.4 14.2 11.9
2,193 2,627 2,718 2,910 238 615 955 1,298 P/CF (x) 5.8 8.9 6.9 7.0
304 375 396 411 152 199 213 239 P/B (x) 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.1
79 81 89 95 57 75 80 90 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.7 9.8 8.0 7.4
225 293 307 316 216 274 292 326 EPS () 173 486 525 627
225 293 307 316 3,997 4,261 4,232 4,196 CFPS () 869 837 1,083 1,062
-133 -32 -26 20 81 105 113 127 BPS () 5,250 5,911 6,386 6,963
-39 0 0 60 3,873 4,093 4,055 4,003 DPS () 50 50 50 50
5 8 6 0 7 7 7 7 (%) 29.5 10.3 9.5 8.0
92 261 281 336 4,659 5,423 5,772 6,149 (%) 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7
1 1 1 1 604 842 876 941 (%) 1.2 20.2 3.7 6.6
91 260 281 335 156 203 218 245 EBITDA (%) 9.7 15.0 16.1 0.5
0 0 0 0 264 398 401 405 (%) 7.1 30.2 4.8 2.9
91 260 281 335 184 241 257 291 EPS (%) -39.1 180.9 8.0 19.4
93 260 281 335 1,248 1,421 1,482 1,486 () 17.8 17.5 15.4 15.0
-2 0 0 0 1,225 1,391 1,450 1,450 () 40.8 45.5 40.3 39.0
-80 380 281 335 23 30 32 36 () 16.8 16.2 14.3 13.9
-77 380 281 335 1,853 2,264 2,358 2,427 ROA (%) 2.0 5.2 5.0 5.6
-2 0 0 0 2,807 3,160 3,414 3,722 ROE (%) 3.3 8.7 8.5 9.4
EBITDA 453 521 605 608 535 535 535 535 ROIC (%) 5.7 7.2 7.3 7.6
FCF 181 259 316 323 1,942 1,942 1,942 1,942 (%) 66.0 71.6 69.1 65.2
EBITDA (%) 18.1 17.4 19.4 18.3 329 562 816 1,124 (%) 109.6 138.0 175.8 207.6
(%) 9.0 9.8 9.9 9.5 0 0 0 0 / (%) 44.1 35.7 24.9 13.6
(%) 3.7 8.7 9.0 10.1 2,807 3,160 3,414 3,722 / (x) 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
: ,
IV. Global Peer Group (Valuation)
: Bloomberg,
ROE PER PBR EV/EBITDA
21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F
11,078 7,647 10,033 282 582 (42) 178 (2.1) 1.8 - 67.3 1.7 1.7 10.5 9.4
1,280 4,051 5,333 (141) 54 (548) (179) (72.4) (45.4) - - 7.3 11.7 9.3 7.6
11,368 8,968 12,005 (1,068) 555 (800) 432 (9.3) 4.7 - 25.9 1.2 1.2 15.3 5.2
ANA 13,717 13,006 17,176 (773) 704 (684) 432 (5.1) 4.9 - 30.9 1.4 1.3 19.8 8.1
702 252 616 - - (105) (14) (15.5) (4.9) - - 1.1 1.2 - 383.8
259 1,711 3,551 - - (1,212) (484) 670.5 (64.6) - - - - - 293.0
12,567 6,547 10,582 (340) 818 (749) 277 (5.9) 2.6 - 38.0 1.2 1.2 13.5 6.7
452 1,795 2,967 (1,436) (367) (1,416) (483) (931.3) 26.6 - - - - - 28.8
181 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
749 658 1,517 (331) 123 (396) 15 (45.5) 24.4 - 29.4 1.9 1.5 57.0 4.4
18,165 22,881 27,285 504 2,488 (353) 708 (2.0) 7.0 - 13.0 0.9 0.9 10.5 7.7
12,775 16,409 21,225 (391) 1,653 (899) 554 (5.9) 6.7 - 12.9 0.8 0.8 12.7 8.1
4,288 5,290 6,178 323 397 223 276 8.3 9.6 19.3 15.7 1.7 1.6 5.6 5.3
4,275 3,886 4,698 29 70 (115) (97) (4.1) (3.6) - - 1.5 1.6 7.0 6.3
6,508 7,620 12,182 (1,093) 539 (1,055) 316 (11.4) 4.8 - 15.8 0.8 0.8 40.3 7.2
6,558 7,194 9,668 (370) 635 (582) 138 (30.8) (1.8) 19.3 27.7 1.8 2.1 18.3 8.7
32,898 30,892 45,298 (1,703) 4,877 (2,796) 2,834 (160.4) 103.4 - 11.1 18.4 7.2 161.8 6.8
20,263 26,325 40,731 (4,504) 2,395 (4,972) 879 (78.5) 13.2 - 17.8 4.8 3.7 - 7.0
-KLM 3,840 18,284 26,953 (3,944) (44) (3,945) (682) 47.0 8.8 - - - - 3830.7 6.0
- 2,689 8,207 11,168 (176) 940 (492) 278 45.6 (19.0) - 10.8 - - 6.7 4.2
8,014 23,815 35,959 (3,147) 835 (3,003) 158 (193.4) 1.1 - 80.4 7.3 5.3 67.8 5.5
7,660 4,943 10,378 (1,338) 725 (1,130) 404 (192.4) (43.4) - 19.6 87.4 24.2 35.4 5.5
8,273 10,659 15,292 (1,069) 964 (1,225) 290 (48.2) 1.9 19.3 20.1 3.5 4.1 18.7 7.7
Mirae Asset Securities Research50 | 2021 Outlook []
IV. Global Peer Group (Valuation)
: Bloomberg,
ROE PER PBR EV/EBITDA
21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F
982 335 981 (237) 23 (210) 1 (194.3) 36.4 - - 37.4 38.5 - 11.6
961 403 1,014 (308) 16 (315) (20) (430.2) 31.5 - - - - - -
447 269 705 (90) 51 (109) 14 (147.9) 26.8 - 16.9 9.5 7.5 - 8.8
516 417 962 (101) - (131) (3) (26.8) (0.3) - - 1.3 1.4 - 10.9
X 96 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
AirAsia Group Bhd 958 969 2,111 (58) (26) (576) (117) 47.2 21.1 - - - - - 12.6
UAE 1,963 925 1,327 21 134 91 216 8.7 15.4 32.4 11.1 1.5 1.3 8.3 5.7
9,181 2,502 3,287 203 507 174 395 6.7 13.3 46.5 26.7 3.4 3.0 30.5 16.3
Juneyao Airlines Co Ltd 5,576 2,583 3,466 68 325 93 277 4.7 12.4 54.2 23.1 2.8 2.5 32.5 17.9
2,298 1,050 1,731 (63) 147 (123) 95 (91.5) 19.6 44.4 19.4 9.3 9.0 23.8 12.0
37,080 17,256 24,048 (708) 3,077 (713) 2,270 (8.5) 17.9 - 17.2 3.0 2.6 48.0 7.0
6,231 6,350 8,876 (950) 735 (883) 403 (19.6) 11.4 - 16.4 1.5 1.5 - 5.8
2,627 2,877 3,456 108 420 17 223 (3.9) 5.5 41.9 13.1 1.0 1.0 7.1 5.4
9,020 6,779 9,277 (370) 998 (423) 697 (13.4) 19.3 - 13.0 2.8 2.3 200.7 6.1
3,998 1,851 2,373 196 467 74 306 9.5 28.4 51.5 12.6 3.7 2.7 12.8 7.1
4,059 3,628 5,254 (315) 456 (402) 233 (13.6) 12.3 - 16.7 1.5 1.3 99.8 6.2
7,054 2,472 8,193 (1,498) 346 (1,358) 268 (54.3) 6.7 - 28.7 4.2 3.8 - 8.5
28,208 6,358 11,619 21 2,195 (14) 1,914 0.1 27.3 30,748.4 14.7 4.5 3.5 32.7 9.7
6,997 3,498 5,434 (251) 648 (293) 442 (52.2) 17.8 45.3 17.5 5.6 5.2 46.6 9.3
Mirae Asset Securities Research51 | 2021 Outlook []
IV. Global Peer Group (Valuation)
: Bloomberg,
ROE PER PBR EV/EBITDA
21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F
906 895 926 141 148 58 55 6.2 7.3 17.0 19.4 1.1 1.0 10.8 10.6
3,999 3,025 3,160 286 317 243 262 8.3 8.2 16.5 15.3 1.3 1.2 10.8 9.8
52,979 44,304 39,260 13,110 6,651 9,198 4,287 71.1 23.3 3.6 7.5 2.1 1.7 4.6 7.4
4,560 2,481 2,832 170 341 234 377 2.4 2.8 10.8 6.7 0.4 0.4 12.6 -
2,197 2,437 2,507 325 356 293 271 15.2 12.6 7.9 8.7 1.5 1.3 5.6 5.6
2,554 542 534 122 115 121 103 10.6 10.3 21.0 24.6 2.5 2.6 16.3 20.6
1,069 230 233 120 132 72 79 17.9 16.0 14.8 14.0 2.5 2.1 10.1 9.8
9,752 7,702 7,065 2,039 1,151 1,460 776 18.8 11.5 13.1 13.8 1.6 1.5 10.1 10.6
Mirae Asset Securities Research52 | 2021 Outlook []
* 2021 3 31 1
Compliance Notice
- () (LP) .
- 3 .
- .
- .
, .
. .
() (%)
() (%)
()
2021.03.25 240,000 - - 2019.07.11 24,640 -31.15 -24.34
2020.10.07 220,000 -23.34 -13.86 2019.04.16 29,179 -29.26 -20.22
2019.11.08 210,000 -28.18 -13.33 (028670)
2019.06.24 200,000 -28.81 -17.50 2021.06.24 9,400 - -
2019.02.10 220,000 -24.40 -13.41 2021.05.14 8,800 -21.55 -15.00
(003490) 2021.04.01 7,400 -8.49 4.05
2021.06.24 40,000 - - 2021.02.15 6,000 0.63 16.17
2021.02.05 38,000 -23.46 -9.21 2020.08.14 5,100 -19.77 6.47
2020.12.02 24,813 -4.40 22.92 2020.06.12 4,600 -19.26 -10.98
2020.11.06 17,059 -1.97 22.50 2020.05.14 4,000 -9.66 -1.13
2020.09.16 Trading Buy 17,059 -9.43 -2.73 2020.04.03 3,800 -14.16 -8.29
2019.11.15 Trading Buy 19,453 -23.30 -3.00
* : , 1
: 12 20% : 12
Trading Buy : 12 10% : 12
: 12 -10~10% : 12
: 12 -10%
(), Trading Buy(), (), (), (), (), Not covered()
79.00% 13.00% 7.00% 1.00%
[] , 3
I. 4
II. 15
III. 31
Top Picks 40
Mirae Asset Securities Research3 |
• : , - , 2022
- , : >
- , :
• : , - : ,
- : , -
- : ,
• : - - , IPO 5 :
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- , : PCC
&
• :
• : , :
• : ,
• Top Picks: CJ,
• - .
• - .
• Cost Push: ,
Mirae Asset Securities Research4 | 2021 Outlook []
• , 50% , 30% , 30%
• ( 10%), (30% )
• 2021
• :
19
: Our World in Data,
, ,
:
: Our World in Data,
Mirae Asset Securities Research5 | 2021 Outlook []
• (RPK ),
• SARS 6, 1991 13, 9·11: 16, : 18
• 14 30(2023)
• 24(22 )
: IATA,
Mirae Asset Securities Research6 | 2021 Outlook []
: ,
: ,
4 • 4 : , , ,
•
• 2010 9.1%:
I. : ,
Mirae Asset Securities Research7 | 2021 Outlook []
• 75%
- /: 3Q21, /: 1Q22~2Q22
• ,
?
: IATA,
Mirae Asset Securities Research8 | 2021 Outlook []
• , 19 3
• 2019 40%
• /
: IATA,
Mirae Asset Securities Research9 | 2021 Outlook []
• 7 : /
• , /
• ,
• : (15 ), ( ?),
,
: Our World in Data,
Mirae Asset Securities Research10 | 2021 Outlook []
• ,
• LCC LUV(SouthWest)
•
EBITDA
: , : ,
I. : ?
Mirae Asset Securities Research11 | 2021 Outlook []
• , +12% : -4%
• ,
• :
: IATA,
Mirae Asset Securities Research12 | 2021 Outlook []
I. :
, L/F indicator
: IATA,
• 10%pt
•
•
:
I. :
IATA ,
: IATA,
• ,
•
•
:
: 21 YoY 19
: IATA,
I. :
: Bloomberg,
• :
• ,
: Bloomberg,
• PBR 2
• 10 1.0
•
vs.
PBR vs. BDI
: Bloomberg, Thompson Reuters,
PBR vs. BDI
: Bloomberg, Thompson Reuters,
Mirae Asset Securities Research16 | 2021 Outlook []
• : MAERSK, , -
• : ,
• : -
Watch List
Global Shipping Watch List
: Bloomberg,
() 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F
028670 KS 3,999 8.2 8.4 1.2 1.1 9.8 7.6
2343 HK 2,197 12.6 14.5 1.3 1.2 5.6 5.5
COSCO 600026 CH 4,560 7.7 9.8 0.8 0.7 - -
601872 SH 6,801 12.2 12.8 1.5 1.3 12.8 9.1
MAERSK MAERSKB DC 61,864 13.6 10.7 1.5 1.4 5.9 6.6
601919 CH 52,979 21.4 15.2 2.8 2.4 8.8 9.5
Hapag-Lloyd AG HLAG GR 44,683 21.0 15.8 3.1 2.9 9.7 11.2
Mirae Asset Securities Research17 | 2021 Outlook []
• 10 38.2%
• 2010 3(16%)
•
• 19
: Alphaliner,
Mirae Asset Securities Research18 | 2021 Outlook []
• 8 (+) ,
• SCFI : ,
•
:
SCFI
: ‘5 -’ ‘5 ’ 16~20
: Thompson Reuters Datastream,
vs.
: Bloomberg,
• ( 2.7%, 0.63 TEU)
• 2021 2020
•
:
II. : ,
•
•
• 2022 ?
: Clarksons,
: Clarksons,
: 2021 4
• ,
•
•
II. : ,
• : 5%
• 30 :
• : ?
:
: Clarksons,
Mirae Asset Securities Research23 | 2021 Outlook []
• BDI 3,000 : 5
• , : 2010 ?
- 2,800 4,000pt? 2010
• :
:
BDI
: ‘5 -’ ‘5 ’ 16~20
: Thompson Reuters Datastream,
BDI vs. CAPESIZE –
: Clarksons,
II. : ,
• 2018 : 40,000
• 3,5 25,000 2
• 5
: Clarksons,
II. : ,
• :
•
• ,
• 2Q21 :
: Clarksons,
Mirae Asset Securities Research26 | 2021 Outlook []
• :
• : 10
•
II. : ,
:
: Bloomberg, KOMIS,
vs. : 10
: = /
: Bloomberg,
II. : IMO
•
• 2018 IMO 2050 50% ,
• , ,
• : / .
:
IMO
2008
'0'
Mirae Asset Securities Research28 | 2021 Outlook []
II. : IMO
• : N2 + 3H2 2NH3 4NH3 + 3O2 2N2 + 6H2O: NoX
- vs.
• : CO + 2H2 CH3OH / 2CH3OH + 3O2 2CO2 + 4H2O
- / vs. ,
• : 2H2+ O2 2H2O: ,
: ?
(°C) 25 -253 25 -162 25 25
(kPa) 1,000-1,700 101-3,600 25,000 101-125 101 101
(kg/m3) 603 (25°C ) 71 17.5 430-470 840 786
(MJ/kg) 18.6-18.8 120 120 49 43 19.7
>130 >130 >130 120 - 109
0.015 3.5 3.5 0.34 - 0.43
Mirae Asset Securities Research29 | 2021 Outlook []
Port Congestion
II. :
• , 7.8 TEU
• ,
• 7 TEU
?
YoY vs. MSCI WORLD MARINE PBR
: Clarksons, Datastream,
II. :
•
• 12, 15 22, 18 : 12
• 4Q21 :
• , 4Q21
Mirae Asset Securities Research31 | 2021 Outlook []
III. :
•
• :
• 3PL
• 2nd Tier
: Bloomberg,
:
Mirae Asset Securities Research32 |
: , Thompson Reuters, : , Thompson Reuters,
•
• 2020 1.6, 5
• :
CAPEX vs. FCF
III. :
Mirae Asset Securities Research33 |
: ,
: ,
• 1 2 3
• 3 77%, 5 92%
• ?: 2nd Tier
III. :
: ,
: ,
Cost Push? • : 1
• 2nd Tier, 3
• 1,500
• ( ) 150~200
•
III. :
• 2021
• :
,
(LV)
: 20 2,3 21 2,3
: LMC Automotive,
: MANHEIM,
• 2021 PCC 20%
• 2020 2019
• 2022 : 2021
PCC
: Clarksons,
III. : PCC,
• PCC :
•
• , /
PCC
: Bloomberg,
III. : 19
• M/S Re-coupling
• :
• Valuation :
,
vs. PER
: Quantiwize,
[] Winner of the Cycle
1. 2. 3. ,
1. 2. 3. PCC
1. 2. 3.
Top Pick
()
(12M) () 53 40 123 279 223 249
52 () EPS () 2,309 1,741 5,393 12,235 9,754 10,934
52 () ROE (%) 2.1 1.4 3.9 7.8 5.7 6.0
(%) 1 6 12 P/E () 72.3 89.0 30.7 14.5 18.2 16.2
4.7 8.9 12.7 P/B () 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9
0.9 -8.3 -26.7 (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
: K-IFRS ,
: CJ,
CJ
KOSPI
• Cost Push - 1
•
2Q21 Preview: 1,019,
• 2 9,022(9.5% YoY): 22.2% YoY, CL 0.7% YoY
• 1,019(21.5% YoY):
• 488:
• :
• 19 :
Mirae Asset Securities Research41 | 2021 Outlook []
() 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21F 3Q21F 4Q21F 2020 2021F 2022F
2,515 2,650 2,775 2,841 2,693 2,902 3,005 2,906 10,781 11,505 11,704
CL 640 616 661 650 640 621 677 670 2,567 2,607 2,672
728 780 788 860 827 953 965 1,033 2,502 3,778 4,145
Global 996 1,062 1,175 1,153 1,130 1,178 1,232 1,083 3,905 4,624 4,375
152 192 150 178 96 150 130 120 673 496 512
58 84 93 91 48 102 116 123 325 389 434
CL 27 25 32 31 24 28 33 34 115 119 120
35 48 30 34 16 55 59 56 147 186 224
Global -7 9 22 20 10 24 25 31 44 90 92
3 2 9 5 -2 -5 -1 1 19 -7 -2
163 184 155 173 175 179 182 179 676 715 717
17 50 68 67 25 74 234 96 202 429 345
() 16 33 42 32 13 49 154 64 123 279 223
(%) 2.3 3.2 3.3 3.2 1.8 3.5 3.8 4.2 3.0 3.4 3.7
(%) 0.7 1.9 2.4 2.4 0.9 2.5 7.8 3.3 1.9 3.7 2.9
(,%) 0.5 1.4 1.7 1.7 0.7 1.8 5.6 2.4 1.1 2.4 1.9
(%) 27.3 31.8 27.7 26.2 11.7 8.0 7.0 6.0 28.2 8.1 6.0
() 1,978 1,922 1,958 1,983 1,999 2,150 2,200 2,200 1,960 2,137 2,200
:
: ,
Mirae Asset Securities Research42 | 2021 Outlook []
() () valuation ()
() 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F () 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F
10,781 11,505 11,704 12,358 2,539 2,564 2,691 2,843 P/E (x) 30.7 14.5 18.2 16.2
9,780 10,401 10,553 11,134 388 364 377 398 P/CF (x) 4.6 7.0 12.2 10.5
1,001 1,104 1,151 1,224 1,533 1,567 1,649 1,742 P/B (x) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9
676 715 717 757 25 26 27 29 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.0 18.6 16.9 16.3
325 389 434 467 593 607 638 674 EPS () 5,393 12,235 9,754 10,934
325 389 434 467 7,105 6,937 7,292 7,748 CFPS () 35,919 25,471 14,589 16,943
-123 40 -89 -80 78 80 84 89 BPS () 158,656 178,441 188,195 199,129
-108 0 0 0 3,496 3,668 4,018 4,468 DPS () 0 0 0 0
7 125 -69 -80 1,637 1,328 1,328 1,328 (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
202 429 345 387 9,643 9,501 9,983 10,591 (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
60 121 98 109 2,808 2,456 2,982 3,412 (%) 3.5 6.7 1.7 5.6
143 308 247 277 1,339 1,369 1,441 1,522 EBITDA (%) 9.2 -51.8 11.6 7.6
0 0 0 0 1,066 675 1,108 1,477 (%) 5.9 19.7 11.6 7.6
143 308 247 277 403 412 433 413 EPS (%) 209.8 126.9 -20.3 12.1
123 279 223 249 2,796 2,510 2,218 2,118 () 7.7 8.0 7.9 7.9
20 29 25 28 2,206 2,233 1,933 1,817 () 447.5 449.2 440.5 441.1
93 425 247 277 590 277 285 301 () 11.1 11.5 11.2 11.2
88 359 209 234 5,604 4,966 5,200 5,531 ROA (%) 1.5 3.2 2.5 2.7
5 67 39 43 3,338 3,789 4,012 4,262 ROE (%) 3.9 7.8 5.7 6.0
EBITDA 807 389 434 467 114 114 114 114 ROIC (%) 3.4 3.8 4.6 4.6
FCF 260 90 -121 -218 2,328 2,328 2,328 2,328 (%) 138.7 109.5 108.7 109.3
EBITDA (%) 7.5 3.4 3.7 3.8 718 993 1,215 1,464 (%) 90.4 104.4 90.2 83.3
(%) 3.0 3.4 3.7 3.8 702 746 771 798 / (%) 68.3 53.3 52.9 54.4
(%) 1.1 2.4 1.9 2.0 4,040 4,535 4,783 5,060 / (x) 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
: CJ,
()
(12M) () -168 -629 -212 250 334 391
52 () EPS () -1,128 -4,212 -1,185 772 958 1,121
52 () ROE (%) -5.1 -22.1 -7.2 5.0 4.8 5.2
(%) 1 6 12 P/E () - - - 41.3 33.2 28.4
7.8 56.2 122.0 P/B () 1.1 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.4
3.8 31.6 44.4 (%) 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
: K-IFRS ,
: ,
KOSPI
• 38,000 40,000 (PBR 1.7, 10% , )
• ,
• 1
2Q21 Preview: 1,968,
• 2 89(16.2% YoY): 21.7% YoY,
• 1,968(78.6% YoY):
• 621:
•
Mirae Asset Securities Research44 | 2021 Outlook []
(003490 KS)
() 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21F 3Q21F 4Q21F 2020 2021F 2022F
2,427 1,728 1,547 1,904 1,792 2,009 2,032 2,297 7,606 8,131 9,009
-83 110 -39 121 102 197 216 231 109 745 776
-980 231 -25 -161 -61 92 132 150 -934 313 377
() -732 123 -29 427 -54 62 133 109 -212 250 334
(%) -3.4 6.4 -2.5 6.3 5.7 9.8 10.6 10.0 1.4 9.2 8.6
(%) -40.4 13.4 -1.6 -8.5 -3.4 4.6 6.5 6.5 -12.3 3.8 4.2
(,%) -30.4 6.8 -2.1 22.2 -3.1 3.2 6.8 4.9 -2.8 3.1 3.7
RPK (%)
-29.4 -93.6 -92.6 -93.9 -92.2 -8.1 117.2 304.0 -78.2 -39.6 390.6
L/F(%) 73.3 39.1 28.2 22.3 20.6 23.0 55.7 50.0 53.6 40.3 86.4
RFTK (%)
3.1 17.2 20.1 21.2 30.2 28.0 8.4 -0.4 15.6 15.4 -2.6
L/F(%) 75.7 80.8 82.3 82.7 84.8 85.0 85.0 80.0 80.5 83.7 79.1
:
: ,
Mirae Asset Securities Research45 | 2021 Outlook []
() () valuation ()
() 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F () 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F
7,606 8,131 9,009 12,154 4,003 4,534 4,758 5,777 P/E (x) - 41.3 33.2 28.4
6,844 6,596 7,317 10,117 1,315 1,291 766 849 P/CF (x) 1.7 4.4 5.2 5.2
762 1,535 1,692 2,037 712 859 1,057 1,305 P/B (x) 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.4
653 790 915 1,238 551 665 819 1,010 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.0 9.3 8.8 8.1
109 745 776 798 1,425 1,719 2,116 2,613 EPS () -1,185 772 958 1,121
109 745 776 798 21,188 20,001 19,375 19,783 CFPS () 12,710 7,228 6,128 6,152
-1,043 -432 -399 -351 6 8 10 12 BPS () 14,170 19,495 20,453 22,886
-471 -333 -314 -256 18,482 17,296 16,657 17,037 DPS () 0 0 0 0
-1 20 20 20 268 236 208 184 (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
-934 313 377 447 25,190 24,535 24,133 25,560 (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
-111 54 36 47 7,988 6,497 6,016 6,027 (%) -38.6 6.9 10.8 34.9
-823 259 341 399 130 157 193 239 EBITDA (%) -8.0 8.9 -0.8 0.8
593 0 0 0 5,871 3,942 2,872 2,146 (%) -38.1 583.5 4.2 2.8
-230 259 341 399 1,987 2,398 2,951 3,642 EPS (%) - - 24.1 17.0
-212 250 334 391 13,891 11,121 10,859 11,418 () 11.0 10.9 9.9 10.9
-18 9 7 8 9,805 7,830 7,255 6,970 () 12.0 13.4 12.1 13.3
-132 269 341 399 4,086 3,291 3,604 4,448 () 48.4 69.2 63.0 70.6
-114 258 327 383 21,878 17,618 16,875 17,445 ROA (%) -0.9 1.0 1.4 1.6
-18 11 14 16 3,207 6,803 7,137 7,986 ROE (%) -7.2 5.0 4.8 5.2
EBITDA 2,078 2,263 2,244 2,262 877 1,745 1,745 1,855 ROIC (%) 0.5 3.3 4.0 4.1
FCF 766 1,246 1,671 1,188 1,519 3,949 3,949 4,297 (%) 660.6 254.7 232.5 215.0
EBITDA (%) 27.3 27.8 24.9 18.6 -523 -273 62 453 (%) 50.1 69.8 79.1 95.9
(%) 1.4 9.2 8.6 6.6 105 114 121 129 / (%) 414.1 140.2 115.7 87.2
(%) -2.8 3.1 3.7 3.2 3,312 6,917 7,258 8,115 / (x) 0.2 2.0 2.2 2.7
: ,
()
(12M) () 152 152 93 260 281 335
52 () EPS () 285 284 173 486 525 627
52 () ROE (%) 6.1 5.5 3.3 8.7 8.5 9.4
(%) 1 6 12 P/E () 15.6 16.0 29.0 15.4 14.2 11.9
11.6 65.1 98.4 P/B () 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.1
7.6 39.1 29.1 (%) 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7
: K-IFRS ,
: ,
KOSPI
• :
• :
2Q21 Preview: 920, 1Q21
• 7,998(17.0% YoY): BDI (2,730pt)
• 920 (43.1% YoY): ,
•
•
(028670 KS)
() 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21F 3Q21F 4Q21F 2020 2021F 2022F
559 683 634 621 680 800 712 810 2,497 3,002 3,114
390 352 357 415 440 589 507 585 1,514 2,121 2,360
39 41 33 30 27 39 45 43 143 154 178
56 68 57 66 74 82 70 70 247 297 137
139 222 188 109 139 90 90 111 659 431 439
38 64 63 60 49 92 74 78 225 293 307
31 44 56 53 36 72 66 70 183 244 281
4 10 2 -1 -2 -2 -2 1 15 -6 4
2 8 3 7 15 20 11 6 20 51 12
0 2 2 1 0 2 0 1 6 4 11
20 42 43 -13 55 80 61 64 92 261 281
() 22 42 42 -14 55 80 61 64 93 260 281
(%) 6.8 9.4 9.9 9.7 7.2 11.5 10.5 9.6 9.0 9.8 9.9
(%) 3.6 6.2 6.6 -2.2 8.0 10.0 8.5 7.9 3.6 8.7 9.0
:
: ,
Mirae Asset Securities Research48 | 2021 Outlook []
() () valuation ()
() 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F () 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F
2,497 3,002 3,114 3,321 663 1,163 1,540 1,953 P/E (x) 29.0 15.4 14.2 11.9
2,193 2,627 2,718 2,910 238 615 955 1,298 P/CF (x) 5.8 8.9 6.9 7.0
304 375 396 411 152 199 213 239 P/B (x) 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.1
79 81 89 95 57 75 80 90 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.7 9.8 8.0 7.4
225 293 307 316 216 274 292 326 EPS () 173 486 525 627
225 293 307 316 3,997 4,261 4,232 4,196 CFPS () 869 837 1,083 1,062
-133 -32 -26 20 81 105 113 127 BPS () 5,250 5,911 6,386 6,963
-39 0 0 60 3,873 4,093 4,055 4,003 DPS () 50 50 50 50
5 8 6 0 7 7 7 7 (%) 29.5 10.3 9.5 8.0
92 261 281 336 4,659 5,423 5,772 6,149 (%) 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7
1 1 1 1 604 842 876 941 (%) 1.2 20.2 3.7 6.6
91 260 281 335 156 203 218 245 EBITDA (%) 9.7 15.0 16.1 0.5
0 0 0 0 264 398 401 405 (%) 7.1 30.2 4.8 2.9
91 260 281 335 184 241 257 291 EPS (%) -39.1 180.9 8.0 19.4
93 260 281 335 1,248 1,421 1,482 1,486 () 17.8 17.5 15.4 15.0
-2 0 0 0 1,225 1,391 1,450 1,450 () 40.8 45.5 40.3 39.0
-80 380 281 335 23 30 32 36 () 16.8 16.2 14.3 13.9
-77 380 281 335 1,853 2,264 2,358 2,427 ROA (%) 2.0 5.2 5.0 5.6
-2 0 0 0 2,807 3,160 3,414 3,722 ROE (%) 3.3 8.7 8.5 9.4
EBITDA 453 521 605 608 535 535 535 535 ROIC (%) 5.7 7.2 7.3 7.6
FCF 181 259 316 323 1,942 1,942 1,942 1,942 (%) 66.0 71.6 69.1 65.2
EBITDA (%) 18.1 17.4 19.4 18.3 329 562 816 1,124 (%) 109.6 138.0 175.8 207.6
(%) 9.0 9.8 9.9 9.5 0 0 0 0 / (%) 44.1 35.7 24.9 13.6
(%) 3.7 8.7 9.0 10.1 2,807 3,160 3,414 3,722 / (x) 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
: ,
IV. Global Peer Group (Valuation)
: Bloomberg,
ROE PER PBR EV/EBITDA
21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F
11,078 7,647 10,033 282 582 (42) 178 (2.1) 1.8 - 67.3 1.7 1.7 10.5 9.4
1,280 4,051 5,333 (141) 54 (548) (179) (72.4) (45.4) - - 7.3 11.7 9.3 7.6
11,368 8,968 12,005 (1,068) 555 (800) 432 (9.3) 4.7 - 25.9 1.2 1.2 15.3 5.2
ANA 13,717 13,006 17,176 (773) 704 (684) 432 (5.1) 4.9 - 30.9 1.4 1.3 19.8 8.1
702 252 616 - - (105) (14) (15.5) (4.9) - - 1.1 1.2 - 383.8
259 1,711 3,551 - - (1,212) (484) 670.5 (64.6) - - - - - 293.0
12,567 6,547 10,582 (340) 818 (749) 277 (5.9) 2.6 - 38.0 1.2 1.2 13.5 6.7
452 1,795 2,967 (1,436) (367) (1,416) (483) (931.3) 26.6 - - - - - 28.8
181 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
749 658 1,517 (331) 123 (396) 15 (45.5) 24.4 - 29.4 1.9 1.5 57.0 4.4
18,165 22,881 27,285 504 2,488 (353) 708 (2.0) 7.0 - 13.0 0.9 0.9 10.5 7.7
12,775 16,409 21,225 (391) 1,653 (899) 554 (5.9) 6.7 - 12.9 0.8 0.8 12.7 8.1
4,288 5,290 6,178 323 397 223 276 8.3 9.6 19.3 15.7 1.7 1.6 5.6 5.3
4,275 3,886 4,698 29 70 (115) (97) (4.1) (3.6) - - 1.5 1.6 7.0 6.3
6,508 7,620 12,182 (1,093) 539 (1,055) 316 (11.4) 4.8 - 15.8 0.8 0.8 40.3 7.2
6,558 7,194 9,668 (370) 635 (582) 138 (30.8) (1.8) 19.3 27.7 1.8 2.1 18.3 8.7
32,898 30,892 45,298 (1,703) 4,877 (2,796) 2,834 (160.4) 103.4 - 11.1 18.4 7.2 161.8 6.8
20,263 26,325 40,731 (4,504) 2,395 (4,972) 879 (78.5) 13.2 - 17.8 4.8 3.7 - 7.0
-KLM 3,840 18,284 26,953 (3,944) (44) (3,945) (682) 47.0 8.8 - - - - 3830.7 6.0
- 2,689 8,207 11,168 (176) 940 (492) 278 45.6 (19.0) - 10.8 - - 6.7 4.2
8,014 23,815 35,959 (3,147) 835 (3,003) 158 (193.4) 1.1 - 80.4 7.3 5.3 67.8 5.5
7,660 4,943 10,378 (1,338) 725 (1,130) 404 (192.4) (43.4) - 19.6 87.4 24.2 35.4 5.5
8,273 10,659 15,292 (1,069) 964 (1,225) 290 (48.2) 1.9 19.3 20.1 3.5 4.1 18.7 7.7
Mirae Asset Securities Research50 | 2021 Outlook []
IV. Global Peer Group (Valuation)
: Bloomberg,
ROE PER PBR EV/EBITDA
21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F
982 335 981 (237) 23 (210) 1 (194.3) 36.4 - - 37.4 38.5 - 11.6
961 403 1,014 (308) 16 (315) (20) (430.2) 31.5 - - - - - -
447 269 705 (90) 51 (109) 14 (147.9) 26.8 - 16.9 9.5 7.5 - 8.8
516 417 962 (101) - (131) (3) (26.8) (0.3) - - 1.3 1.4 - 10.9
X 96 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
AirAsia Group Bhd 958 969 2,111 (58) (26) (576) (117) 47.2 21.1 - - - - - 12.6
UAE 1,963 925 1,327 21 134 91 216 8.7 15.4 32.4 11.1 1.5 1.3 8.3 5.7
9,181 2,502 3,287 203 507 174 395 6.7 13.3 46.5 26.7 3.4 3.0 30.5 16.3
Juneyao Airlines Co Ltd 5,576 2,583 3,466 68 325 93 277 4.7 12.4 54.2 23.1 2.8 2.5 32.5 17.9
2,298 1,050 1,731 (63) 147 (123) 95 (91.5) 19.6 44.4 19.4 9.3 9.0 23.8 12.0
37,080 17,256 24,048 (708) 3,077 (713) 2,270 (8.5) 17.9 - 17.2 3.0 2.6 48.0 7.0
6,231 6,350 8,876 (950) 735 (883) 403 (19.6) 11.4 - 16.4 1.5 1.5 - 5.8
2,627 2,877 3,456 108 420 17 223 (3.9) 5.5 41.9 13.1 1.0 1.0 7.1 5.4
9,020 6,779 9,277 (370) 998 (423) 697 (13.4) 19.3 - 13.0 2.8 2.3 200.7 6.1
3,998 1,851 2,373 196 467 74 306 9.5 28.4 51.5 12.6 3.7 2.7 12.8 7.1
4,059 3,628 5,254 (315) 456 (402) 233 (13.6) 12.3 - 16.7 1.5 1.3 99.8 6.2
7,054 2,472 8,193 (1,498) 346 (1,358) 268 (54.3) 6.7 - 28.7 4.2 3.8 - 8.5
28,208 6,358 11,619 21 2,195 (14) 1,914 0.1 27.3 30,748.4 14.7 4.5 3.5 32.7 9.7
6,997 3,498 5,434 (251) 648 (293) 442 (52.2) 17.8 45.3 17.5 5.6 5.2 46.6 9.3
Mirae Asset Securities Research51 | 2021 Outlook []
IV. Global Peer Group (Valuation)
: Bloomberg,
ROE PER PBR EV/EBITDA
21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F
906 895 926 141 148 58 55 6.2 7.3 17.0 19.4 1.1 1.0 10.8 10.6
3,999 3,025 3,160 286 317 243 262 8.3 8.2 16.5 15.3 1.3 1.2 10.8 9.8
52,979 44,304 39,260 13,110 6,651 9,198 4,287 71.1 23.3 3.6 7.5 2.1 1.7 4.6 7.4
4,560 2,481 2,832 170 341 234 377 2.4 2.8 10.8 6.7 0.4 0.4 12.6 -
2,197 2,437 2,507 325 356 293 271 15.2 12.6 7.9 8.7 1.5 1.3 5.6 5.6
2,554 542 534 122 115 121 103 10.6 10.3 21.0 24.6 2.5 2.6 16.3 20.6
1,069 230 233 120 132 72 79 17.9 16.0 14.8 14.0 2.5 2.1 10.1 9.8
9,752 7,702 7,065 2,039 1,151 1,460 776 18.8 11.5 13.1 13.8 1.6 1.5 10.1 10.6
Mirae Asset Securities Research52 | 2021 Outlook []
* 2021 3 31 1
Compliance Notice
- () (LP) .
- 3 .
- .
- .
, .
. .
() (%)
() (%)
()
2021.03.25 240,000 - - 2019.07.11 24,640 -31.15 -24.34
2020.10.07 220,000 -23.34 -13.86 2019.04.16 29,179 -29.26 -20.22
2019.11.08 210,000 -28.18 -13.33 (028670)
2019.06.24 200,000 -28.81 -17.50 2021.06.24 9,400 - -
2019.02.10 220,000 -24.40 -13.41 2021.05.14 8,800 -21.55 -15.00
(003490) 2021.04.01 7,400 -8.49 4.05
2021.06.24 40,000 - - 2021.02.15 6,000 0.63 16.17
2021.02.05 38,000 -23.46 -9.21 2020.08.14 5,100 -19.77 6.47
2020.12.02 24,813 -4.40 22.92 2020.06.12 4,600 -19.26 -10.98
2020.11.06 17,059 -1.97 22.50 2020.05.14 4,000 -9.66 -1.13
2020.09.16 Trading Buy 17,059 -9.43 -2.73 2020.04.03 3,800 -14.16 -8.29
2019.11.15 Trading Buy 19,453 -23.30 -3.00
* : , 1
: 12 20% : 12
Trading Buy : 12 10% : 12
: 12 -10~10% : 12
: 12 -10%
(), Trading Buy(), (), (), (), (), Not covered()
79.00% 13.00% 7.00% 1.00%
