都市發展:制定計畫的邏輯 Urban Development:The Logic of Making Plans

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    1990

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    I InterdependenceIndivisibility

    IrreversibilityImperfect Foresight

    I

    I

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    RobustFlexibilePortfolio

    Dynamic Adjustment

    I

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    2001 10 Seymour

    Mandelbaum

    2001

    ;

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    effect

    net benefits

    internal validityexternal val-

    idity

    physical planning

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    1990

    2001

    1950 1970

    1980 1990

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    Urban DevelopmentThe Logic of Making

    Plans

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    I

    effectiveness

    Miller, 1987

    IInterdependence

    IndivisibilityIrreversibilityImperfect

    Foresight

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    Cohen

    1972

    ag-

    endaspoliciesvisionsdesignsstra-

    tegies

    I

    effectiveness

    effectnet benefit

    internal validityexternal validity

    I

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    robust

    flexibleportfoliojust-in-time

    voluntary group

    collective goodscol-

    lective actionsprisoners dilemma

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    private goodtoll goodcommon pool good

    rightsregulations

    plansauthor-

    ityoriginenforcementexclusivity

    transferabilityspatial extenttemporal ex-

    tentCoase

    positive poli-

    tical theory

    zoningofficial

    mapssubdivision regulationsurban

    service areasadequate public facilities ordinan-

    cesdevelopment rightsimpact fees

    values

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    intersubjective

    collective choicethe logic of participation

    aggregation of preference

    Arrow

    Impossibility Theorem

    planning behaviors

    behaviorstasksprocesses

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    critical theory

    decomposition

    re-

    presentation

    Urban DevelopmentThe Logic of Making Plans

    paradigm

    positivism

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    I

    I

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    http://clep.ntpu.edu.tw

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    North American

    in-

    terdependentirreversibleindivisible

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    imperfect foresight

    Build, Operate, and

    Transfer

    1950

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    Lakewood, Ohio

    Riverside, Illinois 1905

    Cleveland

    Erieview

    1960 University of

    Pennsylvania

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    Brit-

    ton Harris

    Bruce MacDougall

    Ian McHargRussell Ackoff

    Klaus KrippendorfSeymour Mandelbaum

    Tom ReinerAnn Strong

    University

    of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

    Downey BrillPeter

    SchaefferDoug JohnstonAlex

    AnasKieran DonaghyGerrit

    KnaapVarkki George

    Len HeumannAndy IssermanJohn

    Kim Ken Rearden Louis

    WetmoreAl Guttenberg

    Clyde Forrest

    Daniel SchneiderDick

    KlostermanJon LiebmanZorica

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    Nedovic-BudicRob Olshansky

    Eliza SteelwaterBruce Williams

    Bob Riley

    Shih-Kung Lai

    Alexandra Ortiz

    TaylorvilleMatt-

    hew GebhardtAllison Laff

    Sathya PonnuswamyPaul Hanley

    Emily Talen

    Ernest Alexander

    Island Press

    Heather Boyer

    ChampaignUrbana

    Lachlan BlairApril Getchius

    Bruce KnightDennis SchmidtLib-

    by TylerSteven Wegman

    PhoenixJoy MeeJohn

    McNamaraCassandra Eker

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    Lexington

    Dijon Dun-

    can

    Tribhuvan University

    Fulbright Senior Scholar

    geographic information systemNepal

    Mangal Siddhi Manandhar

    Sudarshan Tiwari

    Don MillerTim Nyerges

    University of Washington 28,000

    14,000

    Buck Ridge Ski Club

    Sheffield Ka-

    thmandu

    Lexington, Kentucky

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    5

    9

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    25

    1 1

    2 21

    3 43

    4 73

    5 103

    6 133

    7 175

    8 211

    9 233

    10 269

    309

    311

    327

    347

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    4-1 76

    4-2 77

    4-3 79

    4-4 84

    5-1 120

    9-1 247

    10-1 1958 274 10-2 1963 275

    10-3 1973 276

    10-4 284

    10-5 298

    1-1 16

    2-1 I 33 3-1 45

    4-1 76

    4-2 85

    6-1 159

    8-1 215

    9-1 237

    9-2 239

    10-1 283

    2-1 35

    2-2 35

    2-3 35

    5-1 110

    5-2 119

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    1

    1

    Allan B. Jacobs 2000

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    74

    Mahomet

    Chicago Associates Architects and Planners

    Prescrip-

    tions

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    1

    leader-follower

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    1

    Oregon 2040

    Portland 2040 PlanMetro 2000

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    1909Chicago Plan of 1909

    Ka-

    thmandu, NepalSeattle, Washington

    hu-

    man settlements

    democratic governanceregulation

    collective

    choicesrights

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    1

    interdependent

    indivisibleirreversible

    imperfect foresight

    complex system

    natural

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    agendaspolicies

    visionsdesignsstrategies

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    1

    Capital Improvements

    Program

    Urbana, Illinois

    1970

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    contingent

    net benefit

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    1

    collective good

    institutional forms

    regulations

    zoningsubdivision ordinances

    property taxesimpact fees

    assignment

    2040

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    authority

    social normssocial regulation

    prescrip-

    tions

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    1

    collective choiceparticipation

    Arrowimpossibility theorem

    representati-

    veness

    Portland, Oregon induced

    participation

    1929

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    1929 Regional Plan of New York and Its EnvironsJohnson

    1996sub-

    division plan

    prescriptions

    views

    consequences

    deliberation

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    1

    ExplanationPrediction

    JustificationPrescription

    Miller 1987, 135

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    ef-

    fects

    1-1

    1-1

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    1

    evidenceargument

    Mandelbaum

    1979settingspro-

    cessesoutcomes

    general the-

    ory

    67covering law

    Miller 1987, 140

    coherent

    140 1

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    1950 1970

    1980 1990

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    1

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    Action commitment to, 34 consequences linked to, 294-300 effects of plan on, in assess-ment, 59 error-controlled, 24-27 event-driven, 96 expected value, 74-81, 99 generation tasks, 190-191hedge or combination of, 94 lack of, 64 in natural systems, 21-23

    opportunities for, 36-39 plan-based, 26-27 prediction-controlled, 26-27 role of design prior to, 51-52 system-challenging vs.system-maintaining, 195

    Agenda, 44-46, 276, 286 control of order of voting by, 214 definition, 44-45 vs. objective, 46 scope of plan and, 293-294 vs. target, 51

    use of plan as, 9, 57, 115

    Allocation efficiency, 143-147 assumption of mobility of resources,151 definition, 143 exceptions to, 148-149

    Allocation of time, 280

    Alternatives

    creation by voluntary groups, 105 irrelevant, 213 primary, and bracket, 250uncertainty with respect to, 81-82,97

    Amenity protection, 158-159, 165

    AICPAmerican Institute of Certified Planners (AICP),219

    American Planning Association, 287

    AIDAAnalysis of interconnected decision areas(AIDA), 291-292

    Anchoring and adjustment bias of a problem,188, 193

    Annexation, 2, 4, 10, 153, 215

    Approval voting, 214

    Arizona, Phoenix, 161, 246, 296

    Arrows impossibility theorem, 212, 214, 216

    Assembly line problem solving, 192

    Assessment, 57-69 characteristics of good plans, 68 comparison tables, 252 diagnostic evaluation, 259-262

    different approaches to, 59 four criteria for, 57-58 three observable phenomena in,64

    Attention span, 39, 186, 200-201

    Austinplan process, 256

    Authority, 12, 135-143extraterriorial jurisdiction,142

    within institutions, 211 multi-jurisdiction plans, 2-3 within organizations, 203, 257 plan decomposition and, 241-244

    Availability bias, 189

    Behavior alteration by intersub-

    jective knowledge, 181, 183of construction material suppli-

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    ers, 91 counterregulatory, 117 equilibrium-seeking, 240 loyalty, 202 plan making, 57, 231, 234-235 rationality, 232-233, 236-241 reaction to signals, 116-117, 310n.7 signals of commitment, 111 too optimistic or pessimistic, 189

    Beliefs, 60, 63, 212, 220, 254

    Benefit. See Cost-benefit analysis; Net benefit

    Bernoulli principle, 91

    Brainstorming, 192-193

    California Petaluma, 92, 168 progressive administration, 255 San Francisco, 258

    San Ramon Valley andBishop Ranch, 275 state-mandates for local plans,67 use of plan as toll good, 121

    Capital. See Financial aspects

    CIPCapital improvements program (CIP), 46, 279

    Census Bureau, 90-91

    Citizen participation, 203, 204, 217, 219-227,252, 259

    Cognitive capacity, 12, 13, 303 group, 190-194 individual, 184-190 for memory, 184-186, 268 six biases in problem solv-ing, 187-190, 206

    Cognitive interpretation, 211-212

    Collective choice. See also Coordination; Sta-keholders, 14, 190, 209-227 formal and informal institu-tions, 300-302 how participation works, 223-227 logic of commitment, 109-115 logic of participation, 219-223 the possibility, 210-215 principles for institutions, 215-219 vs. urban plans, 209-227

    Collective goods characteristics, 120 commitment to investment in, 111-115,125, 128-129 examples, 109 exclusion from, 121 government inducements tomake plans, 124-129 inividuals issues with, 113, 143-145 investment cost-benefit analy-sis, 109-111 use of plan as, 118-121

    Collective rationality, 213

    Colorado Boulder, 168 Snowmass, 134

    Commercial Club of Chicago, 108

    Commissions, planning, 126, 204, 257

    Commitment, 34

    to action, 34 an agenda as, 44-47 emotional traits, 111-112 incremental and sequential, 81-83 with Integrated Action Planning,248 to investment in collective goods,110-111, 114, 128-130 precommitment strategies, 184-185

    Common good. See Public interest

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    Common lands, 153

    Communicative rationality, 14, 192, 235, 236-238

    Community annexation. See Annexation

    Complex systems, 7, 303 inertia, 30, 36 memory capacity for, 185 natural selection that led to, 29-30 stream model for, 36-40

    Comprehensiveness. See Scope of plan

    Consequences linked to actions, 294-300

    Conservation easements, 168-170

    Constitution, U.S. Fourteenth Amendment, 157 right-of -way and, 166

    Consultants. See Planners, professional

    Contingent circumstances, 8, 75 in sewer plant construction, 124 strategy as a path, 45, 51 use in forecasting, 23

    Coordination. See also Collective choice; Sta-keholders advantages of collaboration, 192 advantages of parallel processing,

    191-192 among organizations, 201-202for the common good, 2, 3, 11, 120 group cognitive capacity, 190-194 group formation and commit-ment, 111-115 implications and un-certainty with multiple groups, 103-130 selection of leaders, 113, 224-225

    Cost-benefit analysis 2020 Atlanta 2020 visioningproject, 65

    leapfrog development, 86 regulations, 155

    Creativity, 190-192

    Cultural aspects, rights defined by, 138-139

    Daily calendaring, 280

    Data collection and analysis, 233, 277-284

    Decision analysis to calculate best strategy type,92-94 collective choice, 213-214high- vs. low-densityhousing, example, 74-81 informed vs. uninformeddecisions, 119-124

    Decision making.See also

    Imperfect foresight;Indivisibility; Interdependence; Irreversibility analysis of interconnected de-cision areas, 291-292 characteristics of decisions, 7-8 cognitive biases, 186-190, 206 collective. See Collectivechoice forecasts in. See also Predic-tions, 88-92 group processes, 190-194 implications of multiple groups,103-130 informed vs. uninformed,

    115-117, 119-124 keeping sight of the purpose during, 1-17 prioritization. See Agenda repeat. See Policy rights to. See Authority sequential

    flexibility, 92-93, 99 irreversibility of, 85-86 and uncertainty, 9-10, 81-85, 99

    stream model for, 36-39, 40 views of plans for, 14, 277-284

    Decomposition of plans, 241-247, 256, 288-289

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    Deed restrictions, 156

    Delphi process, 212, 319n.4

    Demand for housing, 85-86, 162-163

    Denmark, Aalborg traffic reduction scheme, 62

    Design, 276, 286

    assessment, 63, 65 definition, 45, 49 evolution, 50 mechanism, 45, 49-50 scope of plan and, 293 use of plan as, 7-8

    Developers focus of, 152 regulations which advocate, 155-157 role as stakeholder, 105 vs. speculators, 122 use of plan as collective

    goods, 119-124

    Diagonstic evaluation, 259-262

    Diversity advantages in changing en-vironment, 29, 95 among decision-making groups,1-2, 190, 193 vs. portfolio strategy, 93-94

    Downtown Chicago, IL, 108-109 commercial interests, 105, 151-153 plans, 67-68, 252 strategy for growth, 87 Urbana, IL, redevelop-ment, 104-108, 109

    Dynamic adjustment, 30-32 vs. collective choice, 210 externality zoning and, 160 insufficient, 188-189

    Economy of scale infrastructure investments, 53, 54 regional planning commissions,126 sewage treatment plant, 92, 290

    Effectiveness of plan. See Assessment

    Empowerment planning, 128, 253-254

    Enforcement, 136-137, 140, 155-156

    England, 127, 222, 317n.2

    Environmental aspects conservation easements, 168-170 effects on land development, 158 intrinsic values, 176-180 natural hazards. Seestochastic processes runoff, 142 social regulation, 140

    Equilibrium analysis, 27-30, 32, 39 behaviors seeking, 240 in natural systems, 27-29 between rights and regulations, 147

    Error-control, 24-27

    Ethical considerations. See also Social equity, 9,37 intrinsic value, 176-180

    in outcome assessment, 68 of professional planners, 196-200, 253 public perception, 219, 226 zoning, 158

    Evaluation. See Assessment

    Evolution, 7, 24, 25, 28, 39, 237

    Exclusivity, 137, 140

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    Expected value of an action, 75, 79-80, 99

    Externalities, zoning for, 159-162

    Fairness. See Social aspects

    Federal government funding, 68, 124, 127-128 Model Cities Program, 128-129,226

    right to call on service, 141 subsidization of transportation plan-ning, 129

    Feedback, 24-27

    Fees impact, 158, 170 for a professional planner,198

    Financial aspects. See also Cost-benefit analy-sis; Economy of scale; Taxes capital improvements program, 46,279 of dynamic adjustment, 30-31, 161 federal government funding, 68,124, 127-128 fundraising through bond issues,151, 169 maximum return. SeeAllocation efficiency mobility of capital, 151-152sharing the costs, multi-

    jurisdictional plans, 2

    zoning, 158-159, 162-164

    Flexibility, 10-11, 92-93, 99

    Flooding. See Stochastic processes

    Florida requirements for local plans, 128 Sanibel Island, 134

    Forecasts. See Predictions

    Forums. See Participation

    Framing bias of a problem, 186-187

    France, 31-32

    Freeways. See Transportation systems

    Game theory, 34-36, 110-112, 119-120

    Geographic aspects, robustness and scope ofplan, 92

    GISGeographic Information System (GIS), 295,323n.7

    2020Georgia, Atlanta 2020 Project, 49, 65

    Goal-directed behavior, 25-27

    Government authority over individ-ual land ownership, 136-137 as coercive group, 113-114 councils, 217-218 division of authority amongbranches, 212 federal. See Federal govern-ment inducements to make plans,

    124-129 legislation from higher and im-plementation by lower, 53-54 local, incorpo-rated to take land use actions, 133-134 multi-jurisdiction plans, 1-2municipal. See Municipalgovernmentrelating to, character-istics of a good plan, 66-67 relationship with commer-cial interests, 151-152 requirements to plan, 126-127 rights captured from pub-

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    lic domain, 139 role in Urbana down-town redevelopment, 105 state. See State government

    Greenfield development, 161

    Group processes. See also Collective choice,184-190, 205, 206, 209-210, 227

    Growth control

    1970 initiatives of 1970s, 92 Oregon, 128, 157, 167-168, 218, 288 state government oversight, 128, 157 urban service areas, 158, 159,167-168, 271-275

    Harrison, Carter, 152-153

    Highways. See Transportation systems

    Historical background

    1909Chicago Plan of 1909, 108-109 construction of infrastructure, 1411970 federal funding of 1970s,1241900 garden city of 1900s, 921970 growth control initiativesof 1970s, 92 land ownership rights, 138 Native Americans, 133, 135, 138, 140 progressive reform, 199 Prohibition, 140701 701 plans, 67, 91-92, 128 urban planning, 210

    Historical districts, 170

    Housingcouncil subsidized, 222 decision analysis, example,76-81, 84-85, 314n.4 high- vs. low-density devel-opment, 85-86, 162-163 replacement costs, 85-86 revenue generated by, 162-163single-fam-

    ily, buffered from multifamily, 162-163 supply and demand, 91 voucher program, 56

    1954701Housing Act of 1954, Section 701 plans, 67,91-92, 128

    Illinois annexation, 2, 4, 10, 151-152, 215-2161909 Chicago Plan of 1909, 6, 45,49, 108, 259

    1964Chicago Plan of 1964, 244-2461966 Chicago Plan of 1966, 2441967 Chicago Plan of 1967, 45 Dupage County, 125 East St. Louis, 154, 226 Hickory Creek watershed, 298 IntergovernmentalSolid Waste Disposal Agency, 215-216Mahomet Corridor Plan, 2-5, 9 Savoy, solid waste dis-posal, 215-216 Taylorville, 282Urbana, downtown redev-elopment, 104-109, 165

    Urbana-Champaign Sani-tary District, 8-9, 215, 216, 287-288, 290-291 Urbana-Cham-paign solid waste disposal, 149-150, 215-216

    Impact fees, 158, 170

    Imperfect foresight, 7, 23, 33, 36, 40

    Implementation of plan, 267-268

    Index of the plan, 278-280, 283-284, 323nn.1-2

    Indicative planning, 31-32

    Indivisibility, 7, 23, 36, 39-40, 54, 161

    Inertia, 30, 36

    Information asymmetric, 115-124, 163, 315n.1

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    computing tools, 285 new

    ignoring, 189 insufficient adjustment to, 188-189 revisions due to, 97-98, 269

    presentation of.See also Maps; Models; Tables, 277-284, 294

    Infrastructure capacity, zoning for, 162, 169 as collective goods, 121-122 decision analysis, example,

    76-81, 84-85, 314n.4 investments in, 54-55leapfrog development issues,30-31, 86-87 for new retail technology, 165 zoning and, sizingand timing, 158-159, 165, 169, 290-291

    Inheritance, 142, 149

    Instrumental value, 176, 177, 179-180

    Integrated Action Planning, 45, 248-249, 294

    Interdependence of actions, 7, 23, 26, 33-34, 39, 269 contingent, 45 and decomposition of plans, 241 of infrastructure and develop-ment, 122-123 within organizations, 201-202 scope of plan basedon, 95, 287, 289,292 strategy and, 51-52

    Interest rates, uncertainty, 81

    ISWDAIntergovernmental Solid Waste Disposal Agency(ISWDA), 215-216

    ISTEAIntermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act(ISTEA), 129

    Intrinsic value, 176-180, 205

    Investments collective goods, logic analy-sis, 109-111 incremental, and uncertainty,82-83 in light-rail system planning,129 use of plan as, 94-98

    Irreversibility allocation efficiently with, 151

    of plan, 7, 23, 30, 33, 36, 39 sequential decisions and, 81-98, 285

    Isolation error, 189

    Issues definition, 37 solutions lookingfor, in stream model, 38

    Jurisdiction. See Authority

    Justifications, prescriptive, 15-16, 17

    Kentucky, Lexington, 13, 45, 167, 271-275, 299

    Knowledge intersubjective, 180 objective, 180, 182 subjective, 180

    Land ownership acquisition, 121 authority implied by, 137-138 by commercial interests, 151-152 communal, 153 historical background of rights,138 in historical districts, 170 inheritance strategies, 142 sharecropping, 145 social status and, 149-150 stewardship, 149

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    Landslides. See Stochastic processes

    Land use deed restrictions, 156 goal-setting and prediction-control, 25-26 indicative planning, 31 maps, 247 plan decomposition and, 243, 244, 246 plans for regulation.See also zoning, 157-170

    ski slopes, 134, 153 spatial extent of a right, 137,142 timing for development, 158, 159, 165,168 vacant holding for the future,85-88

    Leadership, 113, 223-225

    Leapfrog development, 30-31, 86-87

    Learning rate, and plan revision, 96-98

    Light-rail systems, 123, 129, 165, 250

    Logicof commitment for collective goods,109-115 in decision analysis, 74-81 of making plans, 65, 69, 302-304 of participation, 210, 219-223 of regulation, 154-155, 159 use of plan as collective

    goods, 118-119

    Malls, 106-107, 163-164

    Maps, 247-248 vs. models, 247-248 official, 158-159, 166 for presentation, 278, 282-283, 295-297 urban service areas, 271-272

    Market-based system of rights, 146

    Marketing the plan. See Promotion

    Maryland Columbia, 88, 121Montgomery County, 167, 169, 170

    Massachusetts, Boston Redevelopment Author-ity, 258

    Mechanisms of a plan. SeeAgenda; Design; Pol-icy; Strategy, Vision

    Memory, 184-186

    Merit goods, 319-320n.2

    Minnesota, Minneapolis-St. Paul Metro Council,217-218, 225-226

    Mobilization of bias, 184

    Model Cities Program, 128-129, 226

    Models, 10, 247-249, 297-299

    Monitoring dynamic adjustment, 30-32 individual effort for col-lective goods, 143-144

    need for continuous, 22 role of independentvs. dependent trends, 59

    Moody, Walter, 108

    Moral considerations. See also Ethical consider-ations, 10

    Motivation, 135, 143-144, 194

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    Muir, John, 178

    Municipal government annual review, 204mayoral term and long-termdevelopment, 258 multi-jurisdiction plans, 2, 3 organization of planning function,203-205

    Natural hazards, 60, 163, 298, 318-319n.1

    Natural selection, 24, 28

    Natural systems, 303 dynamic adjustment, 30-32 equilibrium, 27-29 examples, 7 instrumental value, 179-180 intrinsic value, 176-179, 180 plan-based action in,21-40, 309n.1

    Nature Conservancy, The, 169

    Negotiation, 190

    Neighborhood coalitions, 152-153, 220-223, 227

    Neotraditional development. See New Urbanism

    Nepal Integrated Action Plans, 45, 248

    Kathmandu, 64, 226 Kipat system, 147 tourism, 154

    Net benefit, 58, 69 difficulty in measurement, 65, 95 lack of estimates, 99

    New Urbanism externality zoning, 159 retail location, 31 as solutions in search of

    issues, 38 transit and pedestrian trips, 108

    New York Ramapo, 168 Regional Plan of NewYork and Its Environs of 1929, 13-14, 61, 96, 240,259

    Nominal Group Technique, 192

    Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission, 125

    NIMBYNot in My Backyard syndrome (NIMBY),220-221, 223, 225, 254

    Observed plan making, 231-263

    Official maps, 158, 159, 166

    Ohio

    Cincinnati Planning Guid-ance System, 278 Cleveland Policy Report of1974, 45, 253-254 Cleveland to Sha-ker Heights rapid transit, 129

    Oligopoly, 113, 119, 125, 221

    Opportunities to use plans, 269, 270-284

    Oregon growth management program, 128,157, 167, 218, 288 Portland light-rail system,123-124, 165 Portland Metro council1,218 1996 Portland 1996 planningstudy, 2492040Portland 2040 Plan, 5, 11, 45, 49,246, 249, 288 requirements for local plans, 128

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    Organizations dynamics, 200-203, 205-206garbage can model, 37 line function of departments,258-259 municipal government as, 203-205 roles, 257-259

    Outcome. See alsoAssessment; Uncertainty, 58,61-62, 65, 249, 294-300 causal relationships to the plan expected value

    of an action. See Decision analysis fully worked out. See design in performance approach to as-sessment, 58 probabilities in decision making,89-91, 189 relationship to design, 63 relationship to objectives, 44 robustness in a wide variety of,92 tracking, in assessment, 60

    Parallel processing, 191

    Pareto principle, 213

    Parks, 60-61, 209, 243

    Participation ad hoc, designedsystems for, 255-256 formal and informal institu-tions, 300-302 how it works, 223-227

    the logic of, 210, 219-223Pennsylvania Philadelphia long-term devel-opment plan, 258 Pittsburgh right-of-way, 166

    Performance approach to assessment, 59

    Pipeline processing, 191

    Plan horizon. See Time horizon

    Planners, professional. See also Stakeholders ethical considerations, 197-200, 253 expertise, 12, 176, 181-182, 183,195-200, 205-206 limited attention of, 39, 186-187 with neighborhood groups, 221 private investors as, 129 on retainer, 125 Urbana, IL, down-town development, 106

    Planning, continuous, 241

    Planning commissions, 126, 204, 257

    Plans ability to makeand articulate. See Cognitive capacity action based on, 26-27, 171 alternative. SeeDecision analysis; Decision making characteristics of good, 66

    vs. collective choice, 209-227 as collective goods, 118-124 decomposition, 241-247, 256, 288-289 dynamic adjustment, 30-32, 161 effectiveness. See Assessment five implications of, 22-23I four I conditions of.See also Imperfect foresight; Indivisibility; Interde-pendence; Irreversibility, 7-8, 33-34 focus on physical development,66, 278 and natural systems, 40

    in observation planning, 239 and scope of plan, 289 government inducements to make,124-129 how they are made, 231-263 how they work. See also Agenda; De-sign; Policy; Strategy; Vision, 44-45, 312n.1 incomplete implementation, 62 index to, 278-284, 323nn.1-2 opportunities to use, 268-276 organizations and, 200-203 vs. regulations, 11-12 regulations and, 135-138

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    revisions. See Revisions scope. See Scope of plan six prescriptions for, 14 theory vs. reality, 4-5, 15 views for decision situations,227-284 why and how, 1-17

    Policy, 47, 52, 276, 286 assessment, 62-63 causal relationships, 58, 61-62, 65, 249,294-300

    defintion, 45, 294 mechanisms, 44-46 progressive, 119, 253-255 vs. regulations, 135 vs. strategy, 51-53

    Political aspects, 210 democracy, 211-212, 219-220, 227, 301,320n.7log rolling, 217pork barrel projects,217 responsibility of elected legisla-

    tor, 217-218

    Polls, 182

    Population projections. See also Growth control,31, 89-91, 232, 297

    Portfolio strategy, 92-94

    Predictions, 15-16 accuracy, 97 assumption of perfect foresight, 50 based on equilibrium, 29 of behavioral response, 117 as collective goods, 125 in decision situations, 88-92 imperfect foresight, 7, 23, 33, 36, 40 intentions becoming, 32-33 isolation from historical re-cords, 189lead time or hor-izon for. See Time horizon in natural systems, 22-23, 29 population. See Population

    projections prediction-controlled action, 25-27 use of plan as, 91what if scenarios, 297

    Prioritization of decisions. See also Agenda, 44

    Prisoners dilemma, 110, 316n.4

    Private sector. See Downtown; Retailers

    Problem solving brainstorming, 190-192 parallel processing, 191six cognitive biases in, 187-190, 206 specialization, 191-192

    Processesbreakdown into tasks,See Tasks early questions, 1-17 group, See Group processes logic in the, 13-15, 17, 66, 69, 232

    progressive deepening, 250 stochastic, 59, 163, 298, 318n.1

    Professional planners. See Planners, profes-sional

    Progressive reform, 119, 253-255

    Promotion, Chicago Plan of, 108

    Psychological aspects. See also Behavior; Cog-

    nitive capacity attention span, 39, 185-186, 200-201 beliefs, 211, 220, 254 creativity, 190-191 memory, 185-186 motivation, 143-144, 194 principal-agent relationship,202

    Public domain, 138-139

    Public facilities ordinances, 158, 159, 166, 168

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    Public interest coordination for the, 2, 3, 11, 121 planners allegiance to, 198 use of term, 183-184

    Public participation. See Participation

    Public perception, 6, 17

    Public transit. See also Light-rail systems, 54, 59

    Purpose of plans, 1-17

    Quality of plan. See Validity, internal

    Rationality standard, 14, 232, 236-247

    Reactive action, 24-27

    Real estate lobby, 156

    Regional planning commissions, 126, 204, 257

    Regulations. See also Zoning, 57-58 clarification of rights through, 135 coersive factor in, 114 for collective goods, 114 by develop-ers. See Subdivision regulations enforcement, 135, 136, 140, 155-156 factors in effectiveness, 57

    as incentives to create plan,127-129 incentives to regulate, 155-157 logic of, 155-156 plan revision triggered by, 98 vs. plans, 52, 11-12 vs. policies, 47 signaling in, 116 zoning. See Zoning

    Replicability of observations, 183

    Representation in collective choice, 13, 222 of data. SeeMaps; Models; Tables definition, 175 intrinsic value and, 176 objectivity of professionalplanner, 197-198 of a problem, bias toward, 187

    Residential density, 31, 85-86, 162-164

    Resilience, 48

    Retailers. See also Downtown big box, 164 vs. housing, revenue from,162-163 impact of anchor store, 106 relationship with local govern-ment, 151-152 role as stakeholder, 105 shopping malls, 107, 163-164store siting and asymmetr-ical information, 120 strip centers, 164

    Revisions, 97-98, 269, 285

    Right-of-way, 160

    Rights capture from public domain,138-139 characteristics, 136-137 charification through regulation, 135,

    145 to decide. See Authority de jure. See Regulations development, 159 exclusivity, 136, 139 origin of, 136-139 spatial extent, 136, 141 temporal extent, 136, 141-142, 167 transferability, 136, 139-141 transferable development, 158,169-170 vested, 142 voting. See Voting rights

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    Risk aversion, 93, 124, 179, 314n.1 distribution of, 150 intrinsic value and, 176of social isolation or exclusion,222

    Roads. SeeTransportation planning; Transporta-tion systems

    Robustness, 92-93Scope of plan, 13, 269 based on interdependence, 94, 269 and comprehensiveness, 4 most efficient, 287-294 rate of forecast and, 23 six implications to choose,292-293

    Scott, Carson Pirie, 105-106

    701701 plans, 91-92, 128

    Sewage treatment planning economy of scale, 92, 289 infrastructure investments in, 56 intradependence of plantdesign, 242 lag time to residential con-struction, 124 Lexington, KY, 270-275 plant siting, 288-289 role in total plan, 204-205

    scope, 94 strategy involved, 8, 122 uncertainty, 81Urbana-Champaign Sani-tary District, 8-9, 215, 287-288, 290, 291 use as a collective goods,121-124 zoing for infra-structure capacity, 162

    Shopping malls, 106, 163-164

    Signaling, 115-117, 310n.7

    Social aspects, 12 community labor, 141-142 government and social justice,114 interactions among residents, 187 of regulatory enforcement, 140 social choice mechan-ism for collective choice, 212 social intelligence, 218 status and rights, 135, 147-150 status and zoning, 162 vision and utopias, 48

    Social equity, 56, 60, 68, 147-149, 199, 253-254

    Social programs, 56, 114

    Solid waste management. See also Not in MyBackyard syndrome, 148-150, 215, 226

    Specialization, 192

    Speculators vs. developers, 122, 123 timing of development, 165

    Spiritual aspects, 178, 179

    Stakeholders. See alsoDevelopers; Representa-tion; Retailers; Utilities, Voluntaty groups asymmetric information among,114-116 coordination for the common

    good, 1, 2, 11, 121 implications of multiple groups,103-130 repeated interaction, 112, 114

    Standards of rationality, 14, 232, 236-247

    State government, mandates for local plans, 67,128

    Stewardship, 149

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    Stochastic processes, natural hazards, 59, 163,298, 318n.1

    Stores. See Retailers

    Strategy, 277, 286 assessment, 63 definition, 45, 51 flexible, 92-93, 99 just-in-time, 92

    mechanisms, 45 portfolio, 92, 94 robust, 92-93 uncertainty and, 85 use of plan as, 7, 52-53, 57, 85-88,96-99, 274-276

    Subdivision regulations , 157-159, 167, 244

    Supply and demand, 91, 145, 163-164

    Switzerland, 153

    Systems of rights, 138-140, 144, 147, 148, 171,317n.2

    Tables, comparison, 251

    Taiwan, 129

    Target, vs. agenda, 51

    Tasks diagnostic evaluation, 259-262 plan making, 232-235 types, 124, 234

    Taxes coercive nature, 114 inheritance, 149 Pigovian, 146, 161

    Time horizon, 88-89, 95-96

    information on collective goods,121-122 plan decomposition and, 246

    Time management, 280

    Toll goods, 110, 120-121

    Tourism, 134, 153

    Traffic. See Transportation planning

    Transferability of rights, 137, 140-142

    Transferable development, 158, 169-170

    Transportation planning Aalborg traffic reductionscheme, 62 commuting cost, 86 federal subsidization, 128 for infrastructure investments,53-55 portfolio strategy, 94 by private investors, 128-129 role in total plan, 204-205 trips per unit of land, 31, 186

    Transportation systems collective good limitations, 109-110 highway, interchange loc-ation, 2 light-rail, 123, 128-129, 165, 250 right-of-way, 166 streetcar, 129

    Trusts, public or community, 139, 154

    Uncertainty, 10, 103, 303 in infrastructure investment, 55 learning rate and plan re-vision, 296-297Mahomet Corridor plan, 9 predictions, 15-17 relationship of plan actionsto outcome, 59, 74

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    with respect to alternatives, 82, 96,106-108 with respect to the environment, 81,96 with respect to values, 82, 96 and sequential decisions, 9-10, 81-85,96

    UIDCUrban Investment and Development Corporation(UIDC), 125

    Urban plans. See Plans

    Urban service areas, 158, 159, 166-167, 271-275

    Utilities, 104

    Validity external, 73, 68-69 internal, 66-69, 72

    Values difficulty to express, 184 instrumental, 176-177, 179-180 intersubjective, 180-181 intrinsic, 176-180, 206 objective, 180 subjective, 180, 182 three ways they arise, 182

    Vehicles. See Transportation planning

    Venezuela, 187

    Virginia Reston, 87Williamsburg, 192

    Vision, 47, 254, 276, 286 assessment, 63, 261 2020 Atlanta 2020 Project, 65 definition, 45, 47 mechanism, 45-48 scope of plan and, 293 use of plan as, 9, 57, 115, 313n.2

    Voluntary groups. See also Citizen participation citizen boards, 203-204 community labor by, 141-142 creation of alternatives by, 106 effects of size, 112-114 government inducements tomake plans, 124-129 local government in, 134-135 logic of commitment among,109-115 neighborhood coalitions, 152-153,220-222

    selection of leader, 113, 223-225

    Vote trading, 214-215, 220-221

    Voting preferences and collective choice,

    213-214, 220-221

    Voting rights, 134, 141, 150-151

    H.

    Wacker, Charles H, 109

    Washington growth management program, 167 requirements for local plans, 128 Seattle, 168, 207, 257

    2000Washington, DC, 2000 Wedges and CorridorsPlan, 45, 96, 169

    Waste management. See Not in My Backyardsyndrome; Solid waste management

    Wedands, 179-180

    What if scenarios, 297

    Wilderness. See Natural systems

    World Wide Web, 286

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    Zoning for amenity protection, 158, 159,165 Empowerment Zones, 129 for externalities, 158-162 for fiscal objectives, 163 hierarchical, 160 implementation, 56 industrial vs. residential, 2for infrastructure capacity,162, 169 lot sizes. See Sub-

    division regulations to manage supply, 164-165 prediction-controlled actionin, 26 real estate lobby advocacy, 156 review and proposals, 126 rezoning, 275-276 role in plans, 12 seven ways landdevelopment issues are addressed, 158 for timing of development,158-159, 165, 168

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    Lewis D. Hopkins; .

    ., 2005 [ 94]

    .

    :

    I S B N: 978-957-11-4054-4

    Urban development : the logic of making

    plans.

    1.

    545.1 94014085 5T04

    Urban Development: The Logic of Making Plans

    Lewis D. Hopkins

    106 339 4

    (02)2705-5066 (02)2706-6100

    http://www.wunan.com.tw

    [email protected]

    01068953

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