Fundamental Concepts of International Politics

Spring 2014

Prof. H. Steven GreenToyo UniversityFaculty of Law

Class 10, Lecture 8June 15th, 2015

Part ICuban Missile Crisis

USSR Remained in Eastern Europe after WWII

Western Europe allies with USA

The Division of Germany

The Division of Berlin

The Hungarian Uprising, 1956After Stalin’s death, Hungarians try to free themselves from Soviet rule.

USSR crushes the uprising, killing thousands of Hungarians who resisted. Hundreds of thousands of refugees flee

The Cuban Revolution - 1959• Fidel Castro overthrows U.S.-backed Batista regime• Sets up Communist state 90 miles off U.S. territory• Close ally with USSR: Receives money, weapons, training

THE BERLIN WALL- 1961• USSR supports East German plan to build wall.• Berlin becomes divided: East Berliners and East Germans may NOT

leave the city or the country.• US does not try to stop it (Signal to Khrushchev that JFK was weak.)

THE BERLIN WALL- 1961

Kennedy and Cubathe Bay of Pigs (1961) and the Missile Crisis (1962)

10.14.1962 U2 spy plane discovers missiles bases in Cuba

10.20-21.1962 USA responds with blockade + demand for USSR

to remove missiles

10.28.1962 USSR announces it will remove the missiles

We need to answer:

1.Why did the USSR place missiles in Cuba?

2.Why did the US respond with a blockade?

3.Why was there was no military conflict? (BONUS question!)

1. Why did the USSR place missiles in Cuba?

The USSR wanted:

• To protect its ally against the US (after Bay of Pigs)

• To control all of Berlin (Khrushchev believed Cuban missiles could stop US from fighting USSR in Berlin)

ChickenIDEA:• Two cars driving toward each other

ChickenIDEA:• The first to swerve loses

Chicken: Payoff Matrix

Swerve Continue

Swerve Tie Lose, Win

Continue Win, Lose

Chicken

Khrushchev expected Kennedy to swerve

Actors & Actions

Actors: USA (Kennedy), USSR (Krsushchev)Actions:

USA• Do nothing• Respond with blockade USSR• Keep missiles• Remove missiles

Cuban Missile Crisis as Chicken Game

USSR removes missiles (swerve)

USSR keeps missiles

(continue)

USA does nothing(swer

ve)Tie Lose, Win

USA responds with

blockade(continue)

Win, Lose

Brinksmanship 瀬戸ぎわ政策• The chicken game is based on brinksmanship• The goal of each player is to bring the

situation as close to disaster as possible…• In order to achieve the best outcome .

IT IS IMPORTANT TO CONVINCE YOUR ENEMY THAT YOU WILL NOT SWERVE!

Kennedy did not swerve: Kept blockade, convinced Khrushchev that USA would risk military conflict that could lead to war.

2. Why did USA respond with a blockade?

“…the greatest danger of all would be to do nothing.”• Understood it was best strategy for crisis and for

Cold War• If the USA did nothing (i.e. swerved) the USSR

would believe the USA was “chicken” (i.e. cowardly) and do something more aggressive (e.g. invade West Berlin)

• USA’s allies would not trust it anymore• USA population would not trust leadership that

allowed missiles so close

CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS•USSR agrees to remove missiles from Cuba•USA agrees never to invade Cuba •USA also privately agrees to remove nuclear weapons from Turkey, but•USA looks stronger: Has reassured allies

3. Why was there was no military conflict?

Which game helps us answer this question?Stag hunt? Prisoner’s dilemma? Chicken?

WORK IN GROUPS OF 3-4 TO ANSWER THIS QUESTION

Hint: Actions for both USA and USSR are

“attack” or “don’t attack”

Repeated Prisoner’s dilemma (i.e. thinking about future)

USSR does not attack USSR attacks

USA does not attack

Status quo(0,0)

Lose, Win-5, 5

USA attacks Win, Lose5, -5 -3, -3

Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma

Today, tomorrow, the day after tomorrow

1. If USA and USSR do not attack in each period, the payoffs (results) for both are:

Today: 0Tomorrow: 0Day after tomorrow: 0

Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma

Today, tomorrow, the day after tomorrow

2. If the USSR considers attacking today, but knows the USA will counter-attack tomorrow, then the USSR’s payoffs are:

Today: 5Tomorrow: -3Day after tomorrow: -3

Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma

Today, tomorrow, the day after tomorrow

Tomorrow is important!Both the USA and USSR knew the other would

counter-attack (retaliate)Each leader thinks about payoffs in all time

periods, not just today.

Suddenly, liberalism looks important…

Cuban Missile Crisis is a “wake up call” ( モーニングコール 緊急な注意を促すもの )

•USA and USSR understand how easily conflict could become total nuclear war.

•Create the “Moscow-Washington hotline” so leaders can talk directly to each other immediately.

Fundamental Concepts of International Politics

Spring 2014

Prof. H. Steven Green

Toyo UniversityFaculty of Law

Class 10, Lecture 8June 15th, 2015

Part II What is power?

POWER

Power

States are the most important actors in the international system because they have

the most power.

What are 4 reasons for the unique power of states?

The Power of States1. States control the flow of people,

money and goods* across borders.

* 人・金・物の国境を越えての移動　（人・金・物の流れ = flow of people, etc.)

The Power of States

2. States have armies.

The Power of States

3. States can tax and spend.*

* 税制と歳出

The Power of States4. States have no authority above them.

The Power of States

States are the most powerful actors in the international system, but:

• How do states use power?

• Is there one kind or many kinds of power? How do states use different kinds of power?

Let’s begin with the most basic, but also the most important, question…

WHAT IS POWER?

WHAT IS POWER?

What is Power?

This question is harder to answer than it seems.

• Nye says power is like love-

• We know it when we experience it, but…

• It is difficult to explain.

POWER

POWER IS NOT AN END IN ITSELF

Power is a resource used to get others to do what you

want them to do.

Power はそれ自体が目的なのではありません。。

What is Power?We can use “sticks” (threats) or “carrots”

(rewards) to get others to do things we want.

We use both carrots and sticks, depending on the situation.

Power and University Life

In this class, is Mr. Green powerful?

Why or why not?

Write at least 2 reasons why Mr. Green is powerful and 2 reasons why Mr. Green

is NOT powerful in this class.

Three Kinds of Power

Next, we will talk about 3 “dimensions of power”

• Think of each dimension of power as a “face of power”

• We may say, “Power has 3 faces”• Three faces of the same thing: power

Dimension = face = kind

John Gaventa, Power and Powerlessness (Not in the textbook)

Forms of Power:

First Dimension:

Coercive Power

強制力

A has power over B if A can get B to do something B would not otherwise do. • Resource-based power: B does

not have resources to stop A

Power resources (Nye)

What are power resources?

States’ power

depends on how many

or how much of

these resources they have

• population

• territory

• natural resources

• size of economy

• military (size and technology)

• political stability ( 政治的安定 )

John Gaventa, Power and Powerlessness

Forms of Power:

First Dimension:

Coercive Power

Examples: A points a gun at B and says, “Give me your money or I’ll shoot you.”

Gulf War, 1990: US and UK push Iraq army out of Kuwait. (Military power)

Oil embargo* of 130 countries against South Africa, 1987. (Economic power)

*embargo = 禁輸措置

John Gaventa, Power and Powerlessness

Forms of Power:

Second Dimension

Agenda-Setting Power

政治日程を組む力

A has power over B if A can can decide what issues are on the agenda.* • Institution-design based power

* 議題に予定されている

John Gaventa, Power and Powerlessness

Forms of Power:

Second Dimension:

Agenda-Setting Power

Examples: I make the syllabus for this class; I decide what we will learn and how we will learn it.

Foreigners cannot vote, so what foreigners want is not part of domestic politics.

UNSC ( 国連安全保障理事会 ) has only 5 permanent members.

John Gaventa, Power and Powerlessness

Forms of Power:

Third Dimension:

Situated Social Power

A has power over B if A can influence or create what B wants indirectly. • Idea- or culture-based power:

What B thinks it wants is created by A.

John Gaventa, Power and Powerlessness

Forms of Power:

Third Dimension

：Situated

Social Power

Examples:

You were raised in a family and society that cares about education. Also, education is necessary for many jobs.

In this class, you care about the things I talk about and you give me authority. ( 私に権限を与える）Europe and Japan admired American values after World War II.

Power and university life

Look at what you wrote about Mr. Green’s power in this class.

What dimensions of power can you find in each?

What is power?

As we have seen so far:• There are different kinds of power• Coercion is the most direct kind• Agenda-setting and Social-based power

are less direct

POWER RESOURCES (Nye)

To influence other states or other actors, states use different resources, including:• Population• Territory• Natural resources• Economic size• Military strength

POWER POTENTIAL (Nye)

How many power resources a state has is its power potential.

POWER CONVERSION (Nye)

Power conversion ( パワー変換 ) • When a state uses its power to change

others’ actions it has converted its power.

• Power potential is measured by power resources

• Power conversion is measured by a state making others change their actions.

SEE YOU NEXT WEEK