Ewa Kulińska-Sadłocha*

ORCID: 0000-0002-8183-6111 Ewa.Kulińska68@gmail.com

Monika Marcinkowska**

ORCID: 0000-0002-3494-9834 monika.marcinkowska@uni.lodz.pl

Jan Szambelańczyk***

ORCID: 0000-0002-4340-5193 Jan.Szambelanczyk@ue.poznan.pl

Abstract

Key words:

JEL:

Wp yw ryzyka pandemii na dzia alno banków na przyk adzie polskiego sektora bankowego w trakcie COVID-19

Streszczenie

S owa kluczowe:

Introduction

1. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on socio-economic systems

Czarna mier epidemie w Europie od staro ytno ci do czasów wspó czesnych

The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios

A Look at COVID 19 in terms of 10. Economics

Global Macroe-conomic Consequences of Pandemic In luenza

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Asia: A Medical Geographic Perspective

The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence

Population Health and Economic Growth. Commission on Growth and Development

Health and Economic Growth, Findings and Policy ImplicationsMacroeconomics and Health: Investing in Health for Economic Development

World Bank Group. 2014. The Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic: Short- and Medium-Term Estimates for West Africa.

The economic impact of COVID-19 (novel coronavirus)

The Economic Impact of COVID-19 in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Combat The Economic Impact Of COVID-19

ex ante

Analizy epidemiologiczne w rodowisku matlab/octave

Tab

le 1

. Per

iod

isat

ion

an

d s

yste

mat

isat

ion

of p

reve

nti

on, a

nti

-pan

dem

ic a

nd

pos

t-p

and

emic

act

ion

s or

inte

rven

tion

s in

th

e p

roce

ss o

f sta

bil

izin

g th

e so

cio-

econ

omic

sys

tem

SPEC

IFIC

ATIO

NO

UT

BR

EAK

CO

UN

TR

Y

CRO

SS

BO

RD

ER

EXPA

N-

SIO

N

EPID

EMIC

/PA

ND

EMIC

PO

ST-P

AN

DEM

IC R

ECO

VER

Y

n0

n0+

e 0n

0+

e 0+

Kn

0 +

e0

+K

+L

n0 +

e0

+K

+L+

P

SPEC

IFIC

ATIO

NO

UT

BR

EAK

CO

UN

TR

Y

CRO

SS

BO

RD

ER

EXPA

N-

SIO

N

EPID

EMIC

/PA

ND

EMIC

PO

ST-P

AN

DEM

IC R

ECO

VER

Y

Tab

le 1

– c

onti

nu

ed

Figure 1. Simulated transmission model of COVID-19

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Case

s be

ing

repo

rted

Months since transmission established

Epidemic growth,doubling time 4–7 days

Timing and width of peak uncertain due to:• Stochasticity in early dynamics• Heterogeneities in contact patterns• Spatial variation• Uncertainty in key epidemiological parameters

Social distancing flattens curve

Risk of resurgence following lifting of interventions

How will country-ba-sed mitigation measures in luence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?

What Will Be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scen-arios

SIR Model for COVID-19 calibrated with existing data and projected for Colombia Estim-ation of the inal size of the coronavirus epidemic by the SIR model

A Time-dependent SIR model for COVID-19 with Undetectable Infected Persons

Mothballing the economy and the effects on banks Pandemic Crisis and Financial Stability

2. Channels of in luence of COVID-19 on the banking sector

Do Globalization, Deregulation and Financialization Imply a Convergence of Contemporary Capitalisms? Financializa-tion of Econom Pa stwo a inansjalizacja

. Prac i opiek nad dzieckiem czy po owa mam.

Table 2. The short-term impact of the COVID-1 9 pandemic on banking activities

Limited employee availability

Additional expenditure

on banking activityCost savings in banking activity

3. The general situation of the Polish banking sector and instruments for cushioning the effects of the pandemic

Figure 2. Structure of the banking sector in Poland by asset value [as at 29 February 2020]

By origin of the capital By bank structurePolish private capital13.3%

State Treasury40.4%

Branches of foreign credit institutions3.5%

Commercial banks89.2%

Foreign capital46.3%

Cooperative banks7.3%

Polacy wystraszyli si plotek o niewyp acalno ci banków

Tab

le 3

. Qu

anti

tati

ve c

har

acte

rist

ics

of t

he

ban

kin

g se

ctor

in P

olan

d

Spec

iic

atio

n

Dat

a as

at

31

/12

/20

19

29

/02

/ 2

02

0G

row

th r

ate

31

/03

/20

20

Gro

wth

rat

e

12

3=

2:1

45

=4

:2

Fina

ncia

l da

ta o

f th

e ba

nkin

g se

ctor

46

Safe Bank 2 (79) 2020 Problems and OpinionsFigure 3. Currency in circulation: daily cumulative changes (upper panel) and daily changes since the beginning of March 2020 (lower panel)

-5 0000

5 00010 00015 00020 00025 00030 00035 00040 00045 00050 00055 00060 000

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

ch

April

May

June July

Augu

st

Sept

embe

r

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

r

Dec

embe

r

2020 2019 20182017 2008

PLN

noillim

-1 000

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

02-0

3-20

2005

-03-

2020

08-0

3-20

2011

-03-

2020

14-0

3-20

2017

-03-

2020

20-0

3-20

2023

-03-

2020

26-0

3-20

2029

-03-

2020

01-0

4-20

2004

-04-

2020

07-0

4-20

2010

-04-

2020

13-0

4-20

2016

-04-

2020

19-0

4-20

2022

-04-

2020

25-0

4-20

2028

-04-

2020

01-0

5-20

2004

-05-

2020

07-0

5-20

2010

-05-

2020

13-0

5-20

20

PLN

milli

on

Daily changes

Average change 2019 (increase of values)Source: Financial Stability Report. Special Issue: impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. NBP June 2020,

Kiedy zako czy si pandemia koronawirusa SARS-CoV-2? Sprawdzamy, co mówi naukowcy,

EBA statement on actions to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on the EU banking sector,

Statement on the application of the prudential framework regarding Default, Forbearance and IFRS9 in light of COVID- 19 measures

Statement on actions to mitigate inancial crime risks in the COVID-19 pan-demic, Statement on dividends distribution, share buybacks and variable remuneration, Statement on supervisory reporting and Pillar 3 disclosures in light of COVID-19

Guidelines on legislative and non-legislative moratoria on loan repayments ap-plied in the light of the COVID-19 crisis,

Table 4. Description of supervisory solutions for the banking sector in Poland in response to COVID-19

Purposes Means of implementation

Group 1 : Provisions and classi ication of credit exposures

concerning the principles of credit risk management and recognition of expected credit losses

concerning good practices in the management of credit exposures backed by mortgages

Group 2: Capital buffers

Group 3: Liquidity standards

Purposes Means of implementation

Group 4: Ongoing supervision

Komunikat ws. „odmro enia” terminów w postepowaniach administracyjnych prowadzonych przez Ko-

Table 4 – continued

misj Nadzoru Finansowego

4. The impact of COVID-19 instruments on banks in Poland

Banki robi to, przed czym ostrzegano od dawna. „Musimy si zabezpieczy ”

BIK raportuje struktur zawieszenia (odroczenia) sp aty rat kredy-towych

Table 5. Changes in bank lending policies related to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic

Loans to enterprises Loans to households

Senior loan of icer opinion survey on bank lending practices and credit conditions,

O kredyt b dzie trudniej. Czas beztroskiego konsumeryzmu w Polsce si sko czy ” – ostrzega prezes najwi kszego banku w Polsce

Final remarks

References

How will country-ba-sed mitigation measures in luence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?

What Will Be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Dise-ase Scenarios

The economic impact of COVID-19 (novel coronavirus)

Analizy epidemiologiczne w rodowisku matlab/octave

Estimation of the inal size of the coronavirus epidemic by the SIR model

The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: Theory and Evi-dence

Population Health and Economic Growth. Commission on Growth and Development

Do Globalization, Deregulation and Financialization Imply a Convergence of Contem-porary Capitalisms?

Financialization of Economy

SIR Model for COVID-19 calibrated with existing data and projected for Colom-bia

Czarna mier epidemie w Europie od staro ytno ci do czasów wspó cze-snych

A Look at COVID 19 in terms of 10. Economics

Health and Economic Growth, Findings and Policy Implications

Mothballing the economy and the effects on banks Pandemic Crisis and Fi-nancial Stability

The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios

Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic In luenza

Pa stwo a inansjalizacja

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Asia: A Medical Geographic Perspective

Senior loan of icer opinion survey on bank lending practices and credit conditions

A Time-dependent SIR model for COVID-19 with Undetectable Infected Persons

World Bank Group. 2014. The Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic: Short- and Mediu-m-Term Estimates for West Africa.

Macroeconomics and Health: Investing in Health for Economic Development

Press and special articles

The Economic Impact of COVID-19 in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Combat The Economic Impact Of COVID-19

O kredyt b dzie trudniej. „Czas beztroskiego konsumeryzmu w Polsce si sko czy ” – ostrzega prezes najwi kszego banku w Polsce

Banki robi to, przed czym ostrzegano od dawna. „Musimy si zabezpieczy ”

Kiedy zako czy si pandemia koronawirusa SARS-CoV-2? Sprawdzamy, co mó-wi naukowcy

Legal documents

Internet sources

BIK raportuje struktur zawieszenia (odroczenia) sp aty rat kredytowych

Financial data of the banking sector

Monthly data for the banking sector as at 29 February 2020

EBA statement on actions to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on the EU banking sector

Financial Stability Report. Special issue: impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic

Guidelines on legislative and non-legislative moratoria on loan repayments applied in the light of the COVID-19 crisis

Komunikat ws. „odmro enia” terminó w w post powaniach administracyjnych prowadzonych przez Komisj Nadzoru Finansowego

Prac i opiek nad dzieckiem czy po owa mam

Statement on actions to mitigate inancial crime risks in the COVID-19 pandemic, Statement on dividends distribution, share buybacks and variable remuneration, Statement on supervisory reporting and Pillar 3 disclosures in light of COVID-19

Statement on the application of the prudential framework regarding Default, Forbearance and IFRS9 in light of COVID- 19 measures

Supervisory Stimulus Package for Security and Development to support the banking sector