国际油轮船东协会 Future Demands on the Tanker Industry the Upcoming New Business...
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Transcript of 国际油轮船东协会 Future Demands on the Tanker Industry the Upcoming New Business...
国际油轮船东协会
国际油轮船东协会
Future Demands on the Tanker Industry
the Upcoming New Business Environment
Tim Wilkins
Regional Manager Asia-Pacific
Environmental Manager
Image C
ourtesy of NO
RD
EN
AS
2nd China Shipbuilding Summit
Dalian, 18-20 June 2008
国际油轮船东协会
Presentation overview
1. Oil market and Tanker fleet overview
2. State of the industry: future demands on the tanker industry, the new business environment
1. Overview
2. Environment
3. Human element
INTERTANKO Today
290 + members operating ca. 2950 ships> 80% of the independent oil tanker fleet
> 85% of the chemical carrier fleet
330 + associate members:in oil and chemical tanker related businesses
15 Committees – 5 Regional Panels
Principal Offices – London and Oslo
Representative Offices in Asia, US and Brussels
Observer Status at IMO, IOPC, OECD and UNCTAD
国际油轮船东协会
INTERTANKO – The Voice of the Tanker Industry
MISSION• To provide leadership to the Tanker Industry in serving the world
with safe, environmentally sound and efficient seaborne transportation of oil, gas and chemical products.
VISION FOR THE TANKER INDUSTRY• A responsible, sustainable, respected Tanker Industry, committed
to continuous improvement and constructively influencing its future.
领导油轮工业取得业绩上的不断改进和提高,以努力实现以下目标:• 零死亡事故• 零海洋污染• 零港口国控制滞留率
Lead the continuous improvement of the Tanker Industry’s performance in striving to achieve the goals of:• Zero fatalities• Zero pollution• Zero detentions
国际油轮船东协会
INTERTANKO Membership
0
55
110
165
220
275
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
No. members
m dwt
No. ships
No. members/million dwt No. tankers
Oil market and
Tanker fleet overview
国际油轮船东协会
Tanker development (oil and chemical)
m dwt number
0
98
196
294
392
490
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110
1,220
2,440
3,660
4,880
6,100
dwt number
国际油轮船东协会
Future for Single Hulls
Options today
• Conversion to
- DH Tanker
- FSU/FPSO
- Bulk Carrier
• Recycling
• Continue Trading
Continued Trading
• Subject to (i) Flag state and (ii) Coastal state acceptability after 2010
• Uncertainty over- Korea- Japan- China- India- Others
国际油轮船东协会
Investment in new tonnage - Move to Double Hulls
• More than USD 500 billion invested since 2000 with the result that ~95% of tanker fleet double hulled in 2010
622
5159
67 68 73 78 84 91 9694
78
4941
33 32 27 22 16 9 4
0
20
40
60
80
100
1991
1997
End
02
End
03
End
04
End
05
End
06
End
07
End
08
End
09
End
10
SH/DB/DS
DH
% dwt share:
Assumed all SH tankers phased out by 2010
国际油轮船东协会
Average age tankers above 10,000 dwt (1970-2007)
Years
6
8
10
12
14
16
197019731976 197919821985 1988199119941997 200020032006
国际油轮船东协会
Tanker fleet, orderbook and phase out - tankers above 25,000 dwt
m d
wt
63 m dwt 155 m dwt
358 m dwt
0
60
120
180
240
300
360
SH - 18% Orders - 43% Fleet - 100%
VLCC
Suezmax
Aframax
Panamax
Handy
23%
36%
41%
45%
48%
Shares of fleet
Share of fleet
国际油轮船东协会
Single Hull Tanker Phase Out - “uncertainty” post 2010m
dw
t
Assumptions :• MARPOL phase out allows for trading until the age of 25 years old, max 2015• The EU alternative does not allow SH trading after 2010.• DB/DS can trade until the age of 25 years old, but here cut off 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
MARPOL (min phase out - trading of SHuntil 25 years)EU + no SH after 2010
OPA90
国际油轮船东协会
Where did the Single Hull tankers go in 2007tankers above 50,000 dwt
‘000
dw
t
0
25
50
75
100
125
China 9% India 19% Japan 8% Med 5% N Am E/G5%
SE Asia13%
S Korea17%
Others24%
50 - 80 dwt 80 - 120 dwt
120 - 200 dwt 200 dwt+
Source: Fearnleys
SH Arrivals: 765 1521 618 432 387 1026 1351 1972
NW Europe: 103 arrivalsN America: 60 ”
国际油轮船东协会
Share of oil import by hull 2007
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
India S Korea Asia RS Africa China Japan ROW
DH
non-DH‘000
dw
t
Source: Fearnleys
国际油轮船东协会
VLCC arriving in AG1 Dec 2006 – 18 April 2008
No
ship
s
Source. PF Bassøe/Pareto
Double hull tanker taking over
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
504
8 1 5 9
13
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
45
49 2 6
10
15
19
20
SH DH Linear (SH) Linear (DH)
Week number
Phase out by segment
国际油轮船东协会
Tanker fleet: by hull type and size segmentm
dw
t
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
5-24,999 25-59,999 Panamax Aframax Suezmax VLCC
SH
DB/DS
DH
国际油轮船东协会
Tanker phase out, deliveries, scrapping tankers25,000 – 59,999 dwt, - assume 2.5% trade increase
m d
wt
Number: 347 - SH 312 Orderbook: 475m wt: 43.7 - SH 11.8 Orderbook: 22.0
Assume all SH tankers phased out by 2010, balanced market end 2006
OverhangOverhangfrom pre 08from pre 08
-5-4
-3-2
-10
12
345
67
89
1011
1213
-02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
New building tobalance - zero
Max phase out
Demolition
Delveries
Surplus tonnage
year
国际油轮船东协会
Tanker phase out, deliveries, scrapping tankersPanamax – assume 2.5% trade growth
Number: Fleet SH OrderbookFleet 347 72 134m dwt: 24.4 4.7 9.8
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Newbuildingto balance
Max phaseout
Demolition
Delveries
Surplustonnage
OverhangOverhangfrom pre 08from pre 08
m d
wt
国际油轮船东协会
Tanker phase out, deliveries, scrapping tankersAframax – assume 2.5% trade growth
Number Fleet SH OrderbookFleet 749 104 283m dwt 77.3 9.8 31.2
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
-02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
New building tobalanceMax phase out
Deletions
Delveries
Surplus tonnage
year
Assumed conversions + other removals
m d
wt
国际油轮船东协会
Tanker phase out, deliveries, scrapping tankersSuezmax – assume 2.5% trade growth
Number: Fleet SH OrderbookFleet 363 41 155m dwt: 54.0 7.6 24.5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
-02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
New building tobalanceMax phase out
Deletions
Delveries
Surplus tonnage
year
Assumed conversions + other removals,
Balanced market end 2006
m d
wt
国际油轮船东协会
Tanker phase out, deliveries, scrapping tankersVLCC – assuming 2.5% trade growth
Number Fleet SH OrderbookFleet 505 117 219m dwt 149.3 32.0 67.7
-22
-18
-14
-10
-6
-2
2
6
10
14
18
22
-02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
New building tobalanceMax phase out
Deletions
Delveries
Surplus tonnage
year
Assumed conversions + other removals
Assumptions:Balanced market end 2006 max phase out, increase in demand of 2.5%
m d
wt
国际油轮船东协会
m dwt
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
-02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
New building tobalanceMax phase out
Deletions
Delveries
Surplus 4% tradegrow thSurplus 2.5%trade grow thSurplus zero tradegrow th
year
Removals in addition to phase out (conversions)
国际油轮船东协会
Conclusion
• SH fleet 40% of the orderbook• SH tankers becoming marginal in most size segments –
biggest share in VLCC segment• SH tankers moving to certain areas (66% Asia 2007)• Change in VLCC spot market after SH becoming marginal?
State of the Industry
国际油轮船东协会
SHIP OWNER OIL COMPANY SPOKESMAN
The rogues of the oil tanker industry
国际油轮船东协会
Tanker incidents 2007 by type and accidental pollution
1000 ts oil pollutionNo. incidents
0
200
400
600
800
1000
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
War
Hull & Machinery
Fire/Expl
Grounded
Coll/Contact
Misc.
Pollution - bars
Source: INTERTANKO/LMIU/ITOPF/various
国际油轮船东协会
Accidental oil pollution into the sea
Source: ITOPF/Fearnleys
1000ts spilt
bn tonne-m
0.0
0.7
1.4
2.1
2.8
3.5
1970s 1980s 1990s PR00s
0
26
52
78
104
130
1000 ts spilt
'0000 bntonne-miles
- 63% -6% -78%
-45% -33% -82% reduction per tonne miles
国际油轮船东协会
Reported tanker incidents
Number
0
200
400
600
800
1000
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
0
84
168
252
336
420
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
War
H & M
F & E
Grounding
Collis.
M isc
Source: INTERTANKO/LMIU/various
国际油轮船东协会
Tanker incidents 2007 by type
Source: INTERTANKO/LMIU/various
1%
27%
13%
29%
9%
20%
Collision/contact
Grounding
Fire/Explosion
Hull & machinery
Misc/unknown
Hostilties
Collision Grounding
Hull & Machinery 95 of which 56 engine related
Misc.
Fire & Expl.
Reported tanker 325
incidents 2007
国际油轮船东协会
Tanker incidents 2007 by age
Built 1970s -
Built 1980s
Built 1990s
Built 2000s
Incidents/no tankers:
0.000 0.200
Built1970s
Built1980s
Built1990s
Built2000s
325 incidents
13%
21%
33%
33%
State of the Industry
1. Environment
国际油轮船东协会
Tanker Industry’s Environmental Agenda
• Anti-fouling Systems • Ballast Water Management • Biofouling• Ship Recycling• Port Reception Facilities• Waste Management• Marine Noise Pollution• Whale Strikes • Spill Prevention and Response Planning• VOC reductions• Atmospheric Pollution - Revision of MARPOL Annex VI
• Green House Gas Emissions • Environmental Benchmarking
国际油轮船东协会
• Reduction options
Technical and commercial feasibility assessments
• Carbon (CO2) indexing
Design Index (New); Operational Index (existing)
• Market Mechanisms (Economic Instruments)
Emissions Trading, Carbon Levy (Fuel tax), Incentive Schemes
One litre of fuel on a modern VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) moving one tonne of cargo more than 2,500 kilometres - more
than twice as far as 20 years ago
Air emissions – GHGs
国际油轮船东协会
Vessel Design Index
Proposed Index (gram CO2/tonne-mile) =
Fuel Cons (g/kW hr) x (ME power (kW) x (1+K2)) x C/c
DWT (tonne) x Max Speed (n mile/hr) x K1
K1 is Coefficient of decreased propulsion efficiency in actual sea conditions
K2 is Coefficient of contribution to CO2 from aux engines and energy conservation equipment
Issues for consideration• Application to all ship types ?• One or more design conditions ? – e.g. load/ballast• One or more sea conditions ? – how weighted ?• How measured / normalised / verified ?
Air emissions – GHGs
State of the Industry
2. Human element
国际油轮船东协会
Human element
Availability and Quality Issues
But a guiding principle:
Human Resources are respected as an asset, not treated as a cost !
国际油轮船东协会
• Proud of our people, proud of our ships
• Proud of our performance – but not complacent !
Human element
国际油轮船东协会
Human element
• MANNING
- IMO Safe Manning Document
- ILO Convention 180
- Maritime universities
• TRAINING
- Cadet berths
- Tanker Officer Training Standards (TOTS)
国际油轮船东协会
Presentation overview
1. Oil market and Tanker fleet overview
2. State of the industry: future demands on the tanker industry, the new business environment
1. Overview
2. Environment
3. Human element