[ CAPITAL CLUB DINNER] 5 SKENARIO & Entry Strategy Non Farm Payroll
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Transcript of [ CAPITAL CLUB DINNER] 5 SKENARIO & Entry Strategy Non Farm Payroll
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DATA EKONOMI USA
NON FARM PAYROLL / NFP
Capital Club DinnerCentral Capital Futures Institute
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APAKAH NFP?
• adalah data yang melaporkan jumlah yang di bayarkan kepada tenaga kerja AS, diluar pertanian, tidak termasuk didalamnya: 1. Pegawai pemerintah ; 2. Pegawai dalam setiap rumah tangga; 3. Pegawai yang bekerja pada organisasi LSM atau non profit/ nirlaba; 4. Pekerja/buruh.
• perbandingan antara upah mingguan yang di bayarkan kepada komponen Non – farm payroll dengan total upah yang di bayarkan kepada pekerja.
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MENGAPA NFP?
• Mencerminkan kondisi sektor komersil dan industri. Semakin tinggi nilainya berarti semakin tinggi tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi.
• Menyumbang sekitar 80% GDP Amerika serikat (AS).
• Laporan NFP berguna bagi pemerintah AS untuk membuat kebijakan ekonomi pemerintahan dan juga dapat memprediksi aktivitas ekonomi dimasa mendatang
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KAPAN & SIAPA?
• Laporan ini dibuat oleh Lembaga Biro Pusat Statistik AS yang bernama US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• Laporan ini dibuat satu bulan sekali, pada hari Jumat, minggu pertama(awal bulan) pada pukul 19.30 atau 20.30 WIB.
• Salah satu pengecualian hari ini karena tgl 4 Juli 2015 adalah peringatan hari kemerdekaan AS
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Siklus NFP
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http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls
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UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Tingkat Pengangguran)
• Definisi Tingkat pengangguran dapat di definisikan sebagai jumlah orang aktif mencari pekerjaan di bagi dengan angkatan kerja. Perubahan pengangguran tergantung sebagian besar pada arus masuk terdiri dari non-orang yang bekerja mulai mencari pekerjaan, orang yang di pekerjakan, orang yang kehilangan pekerjaan dan mencari yang baru, dan orang – orang yang berhenti mencari pekerjaan.
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http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate
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US enemployment Rate
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NON FARM PAYROLL / NFPResearch and Strategy Development
Capital Club DinnerCentral Capital Futures Institute
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The last 12 months - NFP History
No DateTime Actual Consensus Previous1 6/5/2015 12:30 280 225 223
2 5/8/2015 12:30 223 224 126
3 4/3/2015 12:30 126 244 264
4 3/6/2015 13:30 264 240 201
5 2/6/2015 13:30 201 234 329
6 1/9/2015 13:30 329 240 353
7 12/5/2014 13:30 353 230 243
8 11/7/2014 13:30 243 231 256
9 10/3/2014 12:30 256 215 180
10 9/5/2014 12:30 180 225 212
11 8/1/2014 12:30 212 233 298
12 7/3/2014 12:30 298 212 224
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The last 12 months - NFP HistoryAnticipation Impact to EURUSD
No DateTime Actual Consensus Previous1 6/5/2015 12:30 280 225 223
2 5/8/2015 12:30 223 224 126
3 4/3/2015 12:30 126 244 264
4 3/6/2015 13:30 264 240 201
5 2/6/2015 13:30 201 234 329
6 1/9/2015 13:30 329 240 353
7 12/5/2014 13:30 353 230 243
8 11/7/2014 13:30 243 231 256
9 10/3/2014 12:30 256 215 180
10 9/5/2014 12:30 180 225 212
11 8/1/2014 12:30 212 233 298
12 7/3/2014 12:30 298 212 224
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The last 12 months - NFP HistoryAnticipation Impact to EURUSD
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NFP FORECAST – FOREXFACTORY CALENDAR
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5 SKENARIO
NO NFP OUTCOMELOWER LIMIT
UPPER LIMIT MOVEMENT ANTICIPATION
1WELL BELOW FORECAST 0 - 183
EURUSD STRONGLY BULLISH; PENETRATING 1 RESISTANT LEVEL; BACK INTO BEARISH CORRECTION
2BELOW FORECAST 184 - 206EURUSD TEMPORARY BULLISH CORRECTION; THEN FOLLOW BEARISH MOVEMENT
3WITHIN FORECAST 207 - 255 NORMAL BEARISH MOVEMENT
4ABOVE FORECAST 256 - 278EURUSD BEARISH; PENETRATING 1 OR MORE SUPPORT LEVEL
5WELL ABOVE FORECAST 279 - UNLIMITED
EURUSD STRONGLY BEARISH; PENETRATING 2 OR MORE SUPPORT LEVEL
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How to Enter the Market?
• Straddle Entry– 5 minutes before the NFP release
• Buy Stop at direct resistant level• Sell Stop at direct support level
– Advantages• Cost of Entry Minimized
– Disadvantages• Hectic market bigger spread acceleration
• Hedge Entry– 5 minutes before the NFP release
• Buy / Sell Market Order– Advantages
• Can follow both direction movement– Disadvantages
• Expensive Cost of Entry (Com+spread x 2)
• Premature Entry Used Today !– 4 minutes before the NFP release
• Enter market by market order (Sell Market Order)• Projection by using statistical model (regression, etc)
– Advantages / Disadvantages• Others?
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5 SKENARIO & Entry Strategy
NO NFP OUTCOMELOWER LIMIT
UPPER LIMIT MOVEMENT ANTICIPATION
Entry Strategy Recommendation
1WELL BELOW FORECAST
0 - 183EURUSD STRONGLY BULLISH; PENETRATING 1 RESISTANT LEVEL; BACK INTO BEARISH CORRECTION
Hedge Entry
2BELOW FORECAST 184 - 206
EURUSD TEMPORARY BULLISH CORRECTION; THEN FOLLOW BEARISH MOVEMENT Hedge Entry
3WITHIN FORECAST 207 - 255 NORMAL BEARISH MOVEMENT
Stay away / wait for normal spread to Single Entry Direction/ Find the direct resistant level
4ABOVE FORECAST 256 - 278
EURUSD BEARISH; PENETRATING 1 OR MORE SUPPORT LEVEL Single / Premature Bearish
Entry
5WELL ABOVE FORECAST 279 - UNLIMIT
ED
EURUSD STRONGLY BEARISH; PENETRATING 2 OR MORE SUPPORT LEVEL
Single / Premature Bearish Entry
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Lets Do It!
Putting it all in action!And
May God bless you all…
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TERIMA KASIH