Уку Арольд. Оцінка ефективності державних комунікацій...

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Measurement in Defence Communications.

Estonian Experience.



Communications cycleMission Analysis

Formulating Communications

Objectices

Identification of Target Audiences

Target Audience Analysis

Planning and preparing themes, messages, actions, products, sendersPretesting

Adjusting the plan

Executing the plan

Evaluating the effects

Modulating evolving situation



Case study 1. Background.Independence Day Parade in Narva 2009• Border-town to Russia, appx. 60000

inhabitants, 5% Estonians• Regional economic backwardness• Perceived local corruption• Regular polling – the President, the

Defence Forces, the Defence League are less trusted than in average in Narva• Russian diaspora votes for Putin• High impact of Russian TV media• Media research – Estonian national

broadcasting ETV only sports and military parade are watched by Russians



Background 2.Independence Day Parade in Narva 2009• 1993 – enclave attempt• 2007 – Bronze soldier crisis• 2008 – Russian aggression in Georgia• RISC-research – concept of liberty is not well rooted in Ida-Virumaa



Independence Day Parade in Narva 2009Analytic steps.• Risk assessment, incl. communication risks• Announcement of parade in Narva by the President of Republic• Initial feedback from journalists from Ida-Viru briefings• Field visits of communicators for atmospherical knowledge and visual planning• Detailed TAA – demographics, psychographics, opinion leaders, interrelationships of

subgroups, symbols:• Meta-analysis of former databases• Interviews with well-networked locals• Testing the messages

• Adjustment of messaging and PPP• Pre-event communication• The parade• Measurement on venue, media analysis, add-on interviews



Independence Day Parade in Narva 2009.How the measurement process helped• Several high risks initially assessed were downplayed by analysis and

communication itself• Instead of justifing military show of force, highlighting local patriotism• Key TA – children; desired behaviour – come and see (with families)• Identification of Estonians from other places as TA for participation• No allied troops• Careful selection of symbols and words, presence of people all over

Estonia led locals to be highly hospitable and to get rid of troublemakers• Due to solid knowledge politicians maintained message discipline• Experience helped on preparation of parade in Narva 2015



„Estonia begins from Narva“



Case study 2. Why in Afghanistan?• Acceptance and resistance numbers coming close• Diversification on reasoning support among different demographic groups• Main themes:

• ALLIES HELP EACH OTHER• NATO FUTURE IS AT STAKE• BEST SOLDIERS• ALL WORLD PARTICIPATES (50 states)• BETTER LIFE IN AFGHANISTAN• WE CARE OUR SOLDIERS• JOB DONE, BACK HOME• USSR-AFG BAD, WE GOOD• PREVENT TALIBAN RETURN• WE ARE SUCCESFUL IN AFG• STOP INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM• KEY TO COUNTER-NARCOTICS IS AFG

• Some skipped, some used only by visual, some reworded



Regular polling on national defence.• Since 2001. Gives baseline.• Initially quarterly, since 2008 twice a year• Backbone questions:

• Trust towards different national institutions• NATO membership• Readiness to participate in defence operations• Support to defence spending

• Currently more extensive:• Security situation• Justification of ongoing military operations• Measurement of communication initiatives (veterans policy, defence education in schools, popular military

publications etc)

• Tool for communication per se, measurement of (percieved) performance, guide for PPP, branding, messaging and countering hostile disinformation



Regular polling on national defence.Key Lessons Learned.• Regularily publicized polling data normalizes certain attitudes• Beware of biases• There are situational attitudes (beware the confoundings)• Journalists do not read full reports• In analysis don’t be self-centric (e.g. power structures)• Media does not reflect public opinion• Twitter does not reflect what counts for people• New abstract concepts should not be põlled• Cross-tables do not aggregate, use sophisticated analysis• Don’t let politicians insert pet questions• Don’t change your polling partner often• Be clear and specific in wordings• People are not rational



Reasoned action approach



Questions

Уку Арольд. Оцінка ефективності державних комунікацій...

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