2011.9.13 -14

[ (CISK) ] Conditional Instability of the Second Kind (1) 1960 CISK Ooyama (1964), Charney and Eliassen (1964) CISK Syono (1949), Charney and Eliassen (1949) (1996)

(2) 197080 Yamasaki (1975, 77a,b, 79, 83) * 5-6 m/s 10 m/s frictional inflow 1960 CISK CISK) (15-20m/s * 1960CISK 1 m/s)

(3) Rotunno and Emanuel (1987) wind induced surface heat exchange (WISHE) Ooyama (1969) Malkus and Riehl (1960) Yamasaki 60 WISHE CISK CISK Yamasaki (1989b) Emanuel (1987) Ooyama CISK CISK Yamasaki (1989b)

(2007) ALCLLFCLCL

CISK Yamasaki (1983, 84) wave-CISKCISK Yamasaki (1983, 86) (1) CISK (2) frictional inflow CISK ( frictional inflow CISK )(3) frictional convergence CISK ( frictional convergence CISK ) eyewall circulation 1960CISK (1) 1950CISK Yamasaki (1975) CISK

CISK (2003) CISK ( frictionally controlled CISK )CISK ( frictional (frictional inflow) convergence) CISK CISK CISK Kelvin wave CISK gravity wave CISK CISK (ageostrophic CISK) CISK CISK CISK (quasi-geostrophic or quasi-balanced Rossby wave CISK CISK ) CISK 6-10m/s

[] (Yamasaki, 1975, 2004) 23 cumulus-convection-resolving model (CCRM) (1 km 100 m) (5 20 km) (1-2 km) mesoscale-convection-resolving model (MCRM) (Yamasaki, 1986, 2001) (Yamasaki, 2010)

(cumulus convection) (moist convection) 10 ~ 1930 (mesoscale convection) MC (mesoscale organized convection) (Yamasaki, 1983,1984) . ( 10 and/or MCS

(lifetime) ( 3 ) 3 ~ 10 (Yamasaki, 1983,1984)

1950 1950-60 Senn and Hiser (1959) (1961, 1962)

1940

(Matsumoto and Tsuneoka, 1969) 10 (Y(1983) 11 ) (Yamasaki, 1983,1984)

1970 1 (e.g., Takeda, 1971) 1-2

and/or

(Orlanski, 1975) Yamasaki (1983) (2007)1~2 .. Orlanski (1975) meso- 2 ~ 20 km meso- 20 ~ 200 km meso- 200 ~ 2,000 km

meso- (20-100 km) meso-(100-200 km) meso-(200-500 km) meso- (500-2,000 km)

[ ] (Yamasaki, 1986) (Yamasaki, 1975, 77a,b, 79, 83, 84) 50 km 20 km

[ ]1980 1 km 20 km 1960

Manabe et al. (1965), Kuo (1965), Ooyama (1969), Kurihara (1973) Arakawa and Schubert (1974) (1) Ooyama (1964)Kuo (1965)Kurihara (1973) 19601970 (2) Yamasaki (1968a,b,c, 1969, 1971) (3) modify 1970

1980 Yamasaki (1986)

1-5 km 5-20 km

( subgrid-scale Ooyama (1964, 1969) Yamasaki (1968a, b, c) Yamasaki (1969, 1971) realistic

mass flux Ooyama (1971), Arakawa and Schubert (1974) cloud mass flux p.29

[ ] 5-20 km Anthes (1972), Kurihara and Tuleya (1974) (TC) TC Kurihara and Tuleya (1981)

Yamasaki (1986, 1987) Yamasaki (2001) diagnostic prognostic Nasuno and Yamasaki (2001) ( Y (1986) prognostic) a

[ ] explicit distinguish Arakawa and Schubert (1974)

cloud resolving model (CRM) 1 km () km cloud-resolving

15 km - 20 km 1 km 10 km CPU time 100-1000 520 km

*

5-20 km

* parameterizability

(1993)

CISK 20 km

[ ] (1a) 1987 Yamasaki (1988) xxxxx Yamasaki (1989a) 1990 1991 2004 Yamasaki (2006a) 2005 Yamasaki (2006b) (1b) 2008 Yamasaki (2010) 2008 2009 (2) 2009

[] [Yamasaki (1989b) TC] second WMO IWTC rapporteur report (International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones) Yamasaki (2007) 1991

Yamasaki (1989b, 2007) conditional instability latent instability latent instability CAPE Yamasaki (1989b) (MC, mesoscale convection) mesoscale organized convection (MCS, ) cloud band mesoscale organized convection Yamasaki (1989b) IWTC MC

[ CISK ]

CISK CISK CISK

CISK CISK

[ ] CISK

(CISK)

MCS MCS - - - -

suppress affect (cold surge CISK frictional flow CISK

CAPE Yamasaki (1986) MCRM

[ ][] [] *

[]

[ ]

affect ( ISV, 40-50 )ENSO 30-60 (Gray, 1975)

Gray (1975) (warm core)

Yamasaki (1969) frictional convergence CISK Yamasaki (1987)

Yamasaki (1989b) TC (TUTT) (UCL) Sadler (1976,1978) 1991

Gray (1979) seasonal genesis parameter (convective instability) (latent instability)

[ ] Yamasaki (1988,1989a,b) 1950

Hendricks et al. (2004) vortical hot tower PV anomaly merge Yamasaki (1989b) Yamasaki (1989b) [ ] merge merge Hendricks et al. Yamasaki (1989b)

Hendricks et al. (2004) 200920

Hendricks et al. (2004) TC formation stage CISK Yamasaki (1989b) frictional flow

[] Ooyama (1982) []

[] ( (1a) 1987 Yamasaki (1988) xxxxx Yamasaki (1989a) 1990 1991 2004 Yamasaki (2006a) 2005 Yamasaki (2006b) (1b) 2008 Yamasaki (2010) 2008 2009 (2) 2009

[ ]2009

[]A (1) 1986 Yamasaki (1987)(2) A(1) affect B A(1)

[]

1996: CISK, No. 186575-962003: CISK 50, 137-160Yamasaki, M., 1989: Advances in basic understanding of tropical cyclone formation, The second WMO international workshop on tropical cyclones, Manila, WMO Tropical Meteorology Research Programme Report Series, WMO/TD-No. 319, Vol. 1, 125-142.Yamasaki, M, 2007: A view on tropical cyclones as CISK. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 85, 145-164.Yamasaki, M., 2010: Development of a nonhydrostatic version of the mesoscale-convection-resolving model and its application to the eyewall and spiral rainbands of tropical cyclones. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 88, 755-780.Yamasaki(1989) (1989b) IWTC-II rapporteur report Journal ()