ПРОЯВЛЕНИЕ СОЛНЕЧНОЙ АКТИВНОСТИ В СЕЙСМИЧЕСКИХ И...
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Transcript of ПРОЯВЛЕНИЕ СОЛНЕЧНОЙ АКТИВНОСТИ В СЕЙСМИЧЕСКИХ И...
ПРОЯВЛЕНИЕ СОЛНЕЧНОЙ АКТИВНОСТИВ СЕЙСМИЧЕСКИХ И АТМОСФЕРНЫХ ПРОЦЕССАХ ЗЕМЛИ
Воротков М.В., Горшков В.Л., Миллер Н.О.
ГАО РАН (Пулковская обсерватория)
Эйгенсон М.С., 1954, Солнечная активность как
геотектонический фактор, Цирк. Львовской астрон. обсерв., № 28, с.13-21.
Руссо П, 1966, Землетрясения, М.: Прогресс, 247 с.
Сытинский А.Д., 1987, Связь сейсмичности Земли с солнечной активностью и атмосферными процессами, Л.: Гидрометеоиздат, 100 с.
Соболев Г.А., Шестопалов И.П., Харин Е.П., 1998, Геоэфективные солнечные вспышки и сейсмическая активность Земли, Физика Земли, №7, с. 85 – 90.
0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0
0
10
20
30
N
NEICSp(N)
5.7
10.2
2.6
1.0 0.63
CPY
Increase of seismic events in XX century …
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 20000
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1910 1920 19300
5
10
15
20
25
1940 1950 19600
50
100
150
200
250
Seismic events per year 1900-1932 ( 1%) 1933-1962 ( 5%) 1963-2000 (94%)
1902 - 1935 1933-1962
… over the increase of seismic stations and equipment sensibility.
So only the “atomic age” seismic data were used.
SEISMIC DATA BASENEIC (1973-2003) 291 thousands events, Ms > 3 IRIS (1964-2003) 286 thousands events, Ms > 4
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0
1
2
3
4
5
Ms
LgN
4 5 6 7 8 9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
LgN
Ms
NEIC
IRIS
1970 1980 1990 2000
0
500
1000
1500
2000 N M > 4.0
M > 4.3 M > 4.4 M > 4.5
The seismic intensity for various magnitudes (NEIC by SSA) versus solar activity (WN)
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
0
100
200
300
400
NEIC (by SSA) N (M>3) WN (smoothed) N (M>4) N (M>4.5)
N
1. The intensity of the seismic process has low frequency variation nearly opposite to solar activity.
2. Seismic process responds to solar activity less than 10 % of intensity.
Relative frequency of the origin of seismic swarm (P) in comparison with the solar activity (WN).
The small-scale structure of the seismic events distribution is more sensitive to the solar activity.
The time variations of persistency (H by R/S) as other structural parameter of the seismic events distribution
? - Perhaps variations of the atmospheric pressure could be the intermediary between the solar activity and terrestrial seismicity
(after Сытинский А.Д., 1987 ).
Cor = 2H-1, 0< H <1, if H=0.5 => earthquake time distribution is Poisson. So the seismic event stream becomes more random with increasing
of the solar activity.
The global 4-daily surface pressure (in Pa) NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data minus normal pressure (Ps)
and their low-frequency filtering (Psf) (cut off 0.2 cpy).
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600 Ps (Presure) Psf (Ps filtered)
Left - The filtering data of upper figure without linear trend in comparison with the scaled solar activity.
Right – The moving average (on 1 year interval) of the mean error (Std) of the filtering initial data of upper figure (cut off 1 cpy).
The peak values of cross-correlation and
corresponding time shifts of the atmospheric pressure
for various regions
and WN data. Ps Std Ps
max R ∆T (year
s)
max R ∆T (years)
Glob
1234567
0.14 -4.3 0.33 1.8
-0.35 -1.8 0.42 -5.0
-0.20 -1.4 -0.52 -1.5
-0.23 2.0 -0.25 4.2
0.28 4.9 -0.43 0.1
-0.37 -1.5 0.38 3.9
-0.34 -1.5 -0.10 4.0
0.26 3.7 0.39 3.9
The irregular low-frequency variations are revealed in global and regional atmospheric surface pressure as well as in the amplitudes of noisy (high-frequency) component of the baric fields. These variations are close to the sun cycle but do not give convincing arguments to consider the atmosphere as the transfer mechanism between solar activity and terrestrial seismicity.
The another way is to determine the solar conditioned global distribution of various atmospheric parameters
(sea level pressure, sea surface temperature and surface wind 72*144 = 10368 points on the globe)
Cross-correlation (CC) WN andSLP dSLP
Solar activity on the rise recession
dSLP
SLP
Cross-correlation SSN andSST dSST
There is common regions (mainly in oceans) where solar activity acts more effective.
What kind of atmospheric processes are responsible for that?
Tropical cyclons (TC) trackswww.csc.noaa.gov/hurrican_tracks
(v, λ, φ for each hours from 1980)
and dSLP
Probably solar activity acts on the cyclogenesis.
To test this assumption the research of TC evolutionin magnetic storm was made.
(see for “CATRIN” - К.Г.Иванов, 2005, К.Г.Иванов, 2005,
Геомагнетизм и Аэрономия, т. Геомагнетизм и Аэрономия, т. 46, №546, №5.).)
Ар–index (swdcwww.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp)
The local maximum of Ap after smoothing (ωс > 1cpd) and pulse discrimination (<30)
Dynamics of cumulative intencity of North-Atlantic and North-East Pacific TC relative to the moments of geomagnetic disturbance
(±12 days from each local max of Ар)
It is obvious that TC “avoids” geomagnetic storms in North-Atlantic and indifferent to Ap in North-East Pacific .
Cosmic IR images of cloudiness (each 6 h) and TC tracks
The distribution of all (without discrimination) standardized Ар relative to the center of TC
The time distribution of origin TC relative to the nearest maximum of Ар
North Atlantic North-East Pacific
Comparison of cyclons-day and seismicity
1970 1980 1990 2000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
N
WN
IRIS
days
Спасибоза внимание
Thank you
for your attention