詹姆士看天下 2015/11/09

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警語:本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表基金之績效,基金投資風險請參閱基金公開說明書 警語:本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表基金之績效,基金投資風險請參閱基金公開說明書 2015/11/9

Transcript of 詹姆士看天下 2015/11/09

  1. 1. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. 2015/11/9
  2. 2. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. 122.03 103.20 35.87 90.76 39.73 49.50 2008 2014 () -34.64% -15.70% -36.09% -7.28% -20.81% -- -18.82% -5.58% -21.11% -12.76% -9.52% -5.56% Bloomberg() 2015/8/312005/12/31 %
  3. 3. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. Bloomberg1bp=0.01% :2015/11/6 (%) (bp) (bp) (bp) 5.15 490 468 297 7.85 590 582 335 8.26 756 686 461 4.14 250 238 218 () () () () ()
  4. 4. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. : Bloomberg 2015/11/6 (%) 4.14 (&) 5.15 7.85 % % 8.26
  5. 5. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. 5 : Bloomberg 2015/11/6 6 MSCI MSCI (%)
  6. 6. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. 6 1100 (%) : Bloomberg 2015/11/6 123.13 $1089.8 2.3252% $1.0741$44.29
  7. 7. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. 7 : Bloomberg 2015/11/6 ==225= (%)
  8. 8. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. (6.1%)3500826 2927.2920% (3.2%) 1125
  9. 9. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. Bloomberg
  10. 10. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. ()Bloomberg : 2015/11/6()
  11. 11. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. () Bloomberg : 2015/11/6()
  12. 12. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. : Bloomberg 11/9() 10 0.9 0.0 11/10() 9 0.0% 0.1% 10 1.5% 1.6% 10 -5.9% -5.9% 10M2 13.2% 13.1% 11/11() 10 10.9% 10.9% 10 5.8% 5.7% 11/12() 10 0.3% 0.3% 10 3.1% -5.7% 11/13() 10 0.3% 0.1% 10 0.2% -0.5% 11 91.5 90.0 GDP 1.7% 1.5% 10GDP10CPIPPI
  13. 13. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. 1027.118.5 5%712 1268% Fed 10100 9 6 1100 105
  14. 14. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. (60%) 6 12QE GDP20% 350082 H (40%) 10 FOMC (2015/11/9)
  15. 15. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. (TPP)TPP 85% 1027.15.1% 5%1027.1 18.710 21.4 1,900
  16. 16. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. GDP1.6% 2016GDP1.8%2017GDP1.9% 1.9%2.1% 0.1%1.0% 0.5% 3,7508:1 2016 1%1.53921% 1.52051
  17. 17. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. IPO628 IPO IPO10 1812 10101920.4 6.9%101300.818.8%920.4% TPP 7TPP125 901895% TPP7
  18. 18. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. () 2015 2.5%2.25%2.5%1.75% 7 2
  19. 19. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. 41019.964 11.79 49%550316 (CHP) (MHP)25%12%
  20. 20. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. 10ISM 50.1 50.0 50.2 9 0.6% 0.5% 0.7% 9 -0.1% -0.9% -1.7% 10ADP 18.2 18.0 14.2 10ISM 59.1 56.5 56.9 10Markit 54.1 54.0 54.0 9 408 410 480.1 10 27.1 18.5 13.7 10 5.0% 5.1% 5.1% 10 52.3 52.0 52.0 9 -0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 9 -1.7% 1.0% -1.8% : Bloomberg
  21. 21. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. 10() -6.9% -3.2% -3.7% 10() -18.8% -15.2% -20.4% 10 48.3 47.6 47.2 10 52.4 -- 52.5 10 50.1 -- 49.5 50.7 -- 51.2 9 23.2 29 27.11 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 10Markit 44.1 -- 47.0 10() 19.96 12.33 29.44 9 -10.9% -11.3% -8.8% 10CPI 7.58% 7.80% 7.95% 10Markit 50.2 48.9 49.1 : Bloomberg
  22. 22. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. (%) MSCI 1704.39 -0.08 1.83 -2.46 -5.03 -0.31 -0.15 2099.20 0.95 4.18 1.04 -0.80 1.96 3.31 1199.75 3.26 2.95 -0.59 -2.85 -0.41 2.25 379.95 1.19 4.72 -4.31 -5.05 10.92 13.33 264.99 1.40 4.39 -2.13 -3.01 14.77 19.45 225 19265.60 0.96 4.48 -7.04 -0.59 10.40 14.13 4681.00 -0.29 1.30 -7.27 -2.13 6.60 13.78 3590.03 6.13 12.78 -4.12 -14.64 10.99 48.46 MSCI 852.47 0.55 -0.80 -3.68 -17.63 -10.86 -13.69 MSCI 425.84 1.01 1.31 -1.84 -15.36 -6.92 -6.80 MSCI 272.92 -0.07 -4.71 -2.41 -20.44 -7.97 -21.64 MSCI 2023.25 0.81 -4.93 -8.40 -26.30 -25.83 -33.18 MSCI 238.20 -1.56 -5.83 -7.26 -19.07 -12.03 -19.24 Bloomberg 121.74 -1.03 -1.52 -0.39 0.40 0.48 1.86 Bloomberg 131.36 -0.37 0.64 -0.24 -0.80 -0.73 0.04 Bloomberg 135.84 -0.96 -0.65 -0.25 -1.01 -0.65 0.35 Bloomberg 145.38 -0.39 1.57 -0.99 -3.39 -0.65 -3.34 Bloomberg 151.59 0.05 2.39 -0.96 -3.09 1.17 -1.66 Bloomberg 163.51 0.54 2.65 0.70 0.23 2.92 3.14 ETF 46.72 0.34 1.70 -1.00 -3.85 -0.36 -2.62 Bloomberg 143.69 0.02 1.19 -0.01 -1.43 2.03 -0.13 Bloomberg 122.97 -0.82 0.44 -0.21 -2.56 -1.17 -3.28 Bloomberg 150.15 -0.37 0.20 -0.03 -1.14 1.80 2.87 Bloomberg 2015/11/6
  23. 23. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. (%) () MSCI 203.18 1.17 -1.70 -0.14 -16.62 -14.56 -22.91 MSCI 195.09 -0.91 -1.89 -6.94 -18.10 -12.54 -13.97 MSCI 99.66 0.45 1.56 -5.17 -6.50 -3.02 -2.86 MSCI 199.48 -0.47 2.32 -0.54 -0.59 7.13 12.40 MSCI 205.80 -1.73 -0.12 -2.12 -0.92 2.94 3.83 MSCI 196.19 0.02 0.97 -1.37 -5.31 -1.57 -1.77 MSCI 151.12 1.64 6.60 5.11 2.37 6.96 9.75 MSCI 68.01 -1.89 2.18 -5.08 -6.24 -0.51 -2.47 MSCI 110.99 -3.32 -3.12 -3.12 -6.38 -9.81 -9.54 MSCI 208.29 -0.28 3.39 -6.80 -4.66 4.20 5.35 NBI 3454.59 1.30 6.97 -10.51 -6.23 8.72 13.77 AMEX 109.45 -10.79 -17.93 1.93 -37.81 -33.27 -33.48 REITs FTSE 14214.96 -1.87 -0.28 0.53 -0.48 -0.23 3.29 REITs FTSE 1727.03 -2.06 -1.04 0.42 -0.51 -0.52 3.62 REITs FTSE 1531.77 -2.23 5.00 -0.79 3.98 22.23 28.58 REITs FTSE 1425.02 -2.04 -0.28 -1.98 -7.11 -6.31 -3.53 (/) 1089.80 -4.58 -5.76 -0.32 -8.23 -7.96 -7.42 (/) 14.78 -4.95 -6.88 -3.27 -9.55 -6.12 -5.51 (/) 4987.00 -2.45 -3.82 -3.82 -21.96 -20.84 -25.12 (/) 47.42 -4.32 -9.93 -2.45 -27.48 -17.29 -43.13 (/) 44.29 -4.94 -10.80 0.91 -25.46 -16.90 -43.71 CRB 191.03 -2.34 -5.75 -3.68 -16.64 -16.93 -29.42 842.60 -1.70 -1.80 -2.31 -4.44 -12.65 -11.63 : Bloomberg 2015/11/6
  24. 24. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. (%) 1.0741 -2.41 -5.56 -2.65 -3.84 -11.33 -13.64 123.13 -2.08 -2.45 1.09 -2.60 -2.85 -6.84 1.5053 -2.43 -1.79 -3.49 -3.45 -3.40 -5.01 1.0054 -1.77 -4.39 -2.19 -7.11 -1.13 -3.73 1.3306 -1.73 -2.71 -2.28 -9.03 -12.66 -14.46 0.7043 -1.33 -4.14 -5.14 -10.89 -13.98 -18.44 1141.93 -0.12 2.13 2.11 -5.41 -4.46 -5.09 32.5870 0.02 0.77 -2.82 -6.07 -2.86 -6.17 6.3535 -0.57 0.04 -2.26 -2.41 -2.33 -3.79 13564.00 0.88 4.99 -0.26 -3.90 -8.67 -10.43 65.7625 -0.76 -0.53 -3.04 -3.38 -4.13 -6.61 35.8350 -0.60 -0.85 -2.11 -5.90 -8.19 -8.42 1.4208 -1.40 -1.84 -2.75 -5.88 -6.71 -9.13 4.3112 -0.23 1.39 -9.25 -17.20 -18.88 -22.61 46.9300 -0.17 -1.04 -2.43 -5.25 -4.71 -4.11 14.1639 -2.47 -5.73 -10.65 -14.69 -18.30 -20.39 2.9183 -0.11 -0.41 -4.92 -7.85 -20.12 -22.71 64.5050 -0.86 -4.69 -2.47 -20.60 -5.89 -29.32 3.9791 -3.04 -6.65 -4.26 -8.11 -10.99 -14.66 292.85 -3.79 -6.47 -3.63 -6.78 -10.77 -15.64 4.1515 -3.01 -6.52 -3.69 -4.06 -10.96 -14.31 3.7688 2.26 2.22 -6.19 -19.48 -29.48 -31.81 16.8075 -1.85 -2.29 -3.92 -8.65 -12.29 -19.07 9.5792 -0.72 -1.44 -3.90 -6.92 -11.63 -11.17 : Bloomberg 2015/11/6
  25. 25. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. (%) () (bp) 30 3.0853 16.3 21.7 19.4 9.2 33.4 -1.8 10 2.3252 18.3 29.4 10.4 8.2 15.4 -6.0 0.3240 1.5 -0.5 -10.2 -3.9 -0.5 -14.6 0.6930 17.6 9.7 -1.6 10.7 15.2 -13.5 1.0220 15.7 4.5 1.2 12.1 19.6 -16.7 1.7890 30.8 9.6 -8.1 -12.8 -10.1 -59.3 1.9180 24.6 8.7 -9.9 2.3 30.7 -24.1 2.6800 14.0 32.3 21.9 13.5 -0.7 -55.2 2.9120 25.1 28.5 -17.5 1.0 39.4 25.2 9.8500 8.0 -69.0 19.0 42.0 183.0 109.0 9.6582 -38.2 -84.5 -121.1 -60.5 -334.9 -42.8 3.3600 1.0 13.0 -30.0 -27.0 -24.0 -50.0 8.5190 18.2 29.5 30.0 36.3 55.0 54.5 15.5730 -31.7 32.8 191.1 263.8 320.9 289.2 6.0810 7.7 15.9 1.5 -4.1 23.7 14.9 2.2100 9.8 16.5 -19.7 -38.3 -39.5 -43.2 8.6370 -24.5 -16.3 20.2 64.0 84.1 63.4 * 7.6810 4.0 15.4 -12.5 -21.1 -17.6 -50.9 10 2.6250 -2.7 -6.2 -16.3 4.3 -10.4 -67.6 : Bloomberg 2015/11/6
  26. 26. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. Q3 Bloomberg 2015/11/6 441 312(70.7%) 33(7.5%) 96(21.8%) ()2.7% (%) 13.4 -1.6 -1.1 3.4 -57.1 -14.7 -6.1 21.8 13.0 1.4 340 163(37%) 72(16%) 205(47%) ()1.31% (%) 3.6 -6.1 0.6 1.9 -34.3 -15.4 1.4 11.8 9.2 -1.6
  27. 27. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. / (02)770-88888 6610 (04)3700-7988 360171 (07)972-1188 39 Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.
  28. 28. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.