詹姆士看天下 2015/07/27

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警語:本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表基金之績效,基金投資風險請參閱基金公開說明書 警語:本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表基金之績效,基金投資風險請參閱基金公開說明書 2015/07/27

Transcript of 詹姆士看天下 2015/07/27

  1. 1. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 2015/07/27
  2. 2. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 129.30 112.59 49.40 38.90 54.34 2008 2014 () -34.64% -15.70% -36.09% -7.28% -21.11% -12.76% -9.52% -5.56% -18.82%-5.58% Bloomberg() 2015/6/302005/12/31 %
  3. 3. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. Bloomberg1bp=0.01% :2015/7/24 (%) (bp) (bp) (bp) 4.72 409 419 297 7.24 495 532 335 8.54 728 738 461 4.05 238 242 218 () () () () ()
  4. 4. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. : Bloomberg 2015/7/24 (%) 4.05 (&) 4.72 7.24 % % 8.54 -1.62 -0.94 -0.62 -0.48 -0.48 -0.04 0.38 0.39 0.44 0.51 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1
  5. 5. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. -1.2 -1.9 -2.3 -2.3 -3.3 -4.4 -4.8 -7.0 -0.8 -1.1 -1.5 -1.6 -2.0 -2.4 -2.7 -2.9 -3.2 -4.2 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 5 : Bloomberg 2015/7/24 MSCI MSCI (%)
  6. 6. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 6 l 4 501100 -3.6 -12.3 -3.5-3.1 -5.4 -4.4-4.0 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.1-0.6-0.9-1.2 -2.5-2.9-3.2 -5.2 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 CRB (%) : Bloomberg 2015/7/24 123.81$1099.052.262% $1.0984 $48.14
  7. 7. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 2.9 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.8 -2.2 -2.4 -2.5 -2.8 -2.8 -2.9 -2.9 -3.1 -4.9 -5.8 -5.9 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 7 : Bloomberg 2015/7/24 ==225= (%)
  8. 8. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (2.9%) 6 4000 (5.9%) (5.8%) (4.9%)IS
  9. 9. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 9 50 7 62 (GST) 3 72181318 811 5 (GST)* (GST) 17GST 5 GST 20164 3 * (GST) 2%3% KBloomberg 2015/7/21
  10. 10. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. Sensex 3.4%2 21 HDFC20.7% 21.6% Infosys 5.0% 2015 20152016 717 4 () ()2015/7/21 10 Sensex Bloomberg 2009/7/22 Bloomberg 2009/7/17
  11. 11. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 11 Bloomberg 2009/7/17 Bloomberg 2009/7/21 2592() 2422() - 4005()
  12. 12. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. Bloomberg
  13. 13. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. () Bloomberg : 2015/7/24()
  14. 14. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. () Bloomberg : 2015/7/24()
  15. 15. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. : Bloomberg 7/27() 6 3.2% -1.8% 7IFO 101.8 102.0 7/28() 7 100.0 101.4 7/29() 14.25% 13.75% 7/30() 0.25% 0.25% GDP 2.5% -0.2% 7/31() 7 94.0 93.3 11.0% 11.5% 6CPI 0.3% 0.5%
  16. 16. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 7()PMI15 74000 41 FOMCGDP 450 11007
  17. 17. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (60%) QE NBI (40%) (2015/7/27)
  18. 18. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 65493.2% 54020072 2.625.5197311 iphone iphone59% 475335%4880 9%Tim Cook iPhoneMacApp StoreApple Watch
  19. 19. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 15 22 10 820820 329IMF15 7 0.5% 16 0.5%2015 8
  20. 20. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. PMI15749.4 48.2155(50) 49.7PMI(HSBC)PMI GST22 GST GST 1% 12313%62 20.3% 1%~3%
  21. 21. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. GDP 1.1%0.15% 8626.6240 1311 10%
  22. 22. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 6 549 540 532 6 0.6% 0.3% 0.8% 6 48.2 54.8 51.7 7 -7.1 -5.8 -5.6 Markit7 52.2 52.5 52.5 Markit7 51.5 51.9 51.9 6 -0.2% 0.4% 0.4% : Bloomberg
  23. 23. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 7PMI 51.4 50.5 50.1 6 12791 1500 9008 7PMI 48.2 49.7 49.4 7CPI 0.90% 1.10% 1.00% CPI 1.5% 1.7% 1.3% GDP 0.3% 0.4% 0.8% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 6.00% 6.00% 5.75% 6 6.9% 6.9% 6.7% IBGEIPCA-15 0.59% 0.61% 0.99% : Bloomberg
  24. 24. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) MSCI 1745.50 -1.98 -1.73 -3.11 2.34 2.10 -0.16 2079.65 -2.21 -1.04 -1.39 2.47 1.01 5.12 1225.99 -3.24 -4.20 -2.13 2.62 1.77 7.10 394.64 -2.72 -0.56 -4.31 7.04 15.21 15.41 273.96 -2.01 0.23 -1.62 11.45 18.66 18.49 225 20544.53 -0.52 -1.19 2.39 15.15 17.25 32.36 5139.82 0.49 1.45 5.89 15.24 17.00 32.07 4070.91 2.87 -2.91 -10.08 21.41 25.85 91.43 MSCI 910.40 -3.32 -7.16 -14.57 -8.02 -4.80 -15.60 MSCI 447.38 -2.27 -6.82 -14.61 -6.48 -2.21 -7.56 MSCI 289.73 -5.24 -7.41 -14.11 -3.90 -2.31 -30.90 MSCI 2277.31 -7.00 -10.51 -16.94 -16.59 -16.51 -35.86 MSCI 261.09 -4.43 -5.75 -12.27 -6.09 -3.57 -21.63 Bloomberg 121.87 0.51 0.97 -1.20 -1.44 0.59 3.33 Bloomberg 131.55 0.39 0.76 -1.96 -1.30 -0.59 2.30 Bloomberg 136.16 0.38 0.56 -3.02 -2.45 -0.41 1.07 Bloomberg 147.29 -0.62 -1.56 -1.47 1.88 0.66 -4.32 Bloomberg 153.35 -0.94 -1.59 -1.99 2.34 2.34 -1.38 Bloomberg 163.04 -0.04 0.49 -0.28 1.62 2.63 3.10 ETF 46.67 -1.62 -2.91 -3.69 -0.49 -0.47 -4.82 Bloomberg 144.15 -0.48 -0.50 -1.91 1.52 2.36 -0.01 Bloomberg 123.74 -0.48 -1.16 -1.99 -2.64 -0.54 -2.81 Bloomberg 150.24 0.44 0.60 -2.27 -0.55 1.86 5.48 Bloomberg 2015/7/24
  25. 25. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) () MSCI 206.29 -4.26 -9.24 -15.79 -11.64 -13.25 -32.83 MSCI 208.48 -4.86 -8.67 -12.10 -6.47 -6.53 -18.88 MSCI 105.35 -1.38 -1.15 -0.87 5.54 2.52 0.59 MSCI 200.89 -0.72 -0.74 -0.55 7.95 7.88 11.19 MSCI 208.26 -0.92 1.62 -0.06 1.41 4.17 5.14 MSCI 196.51 -2.66 -3.41 -5.63 -0.82 -1.41 -3.95 MSCI 145.51 -2.20 -0.12 -2.62 5.83 2.99 7.55 MSCI 71.06 -1.72 -1.65 -2.54 1.66 3.95 -2.38 MSCI 113.82 -1.70 0.07 0.07 -9.50 -7.51 -6.70 MSCI 222.54 -2.12 0.02 1.44 6.92 11.33 17.71 NBI 3956.25 -4.96 1.47 8.36 16.01 24.51 48.64 AMEX 114.89 -10.63 -24.53 -35.12 -44.25 -29.96 -52.48 REITs FTSE 13999.12 -0.52 2.36 -3.92 -9.60 -1.75 6.83 REITs FTSE 1701.63 -0.58 2.95 -4.24 -10.48 -1.99 6.83 REITs FTSE 1506.11 -2.66 3.56 -1.51 6.83 20.18 28.64 REITs FTSE 1442.18 -1.50 -3.20 -8.54 -9.56 -5.18 -7.23 (/) 1134.47 -2.51 -5.64 -5.29 -12.57 -4.41 -13.61 (/) 14.89 -4.43 -8.23 -6.84 -17.29 -5.25 -28.86 (/) 5480.00 -1.97 -4.61 -9.57 -4.11 -13.02 -22.46 (/) 57.10 -2.78 -10.60 -10.01 13.81 -0.40 -47.08 (/) 50.89 -3.51 -14.59 -9.70 9.74 -4.43 -50.64 CRB 214.54 -1.70 -3.41 -3.67 -2.02 -6.70 -27.86 918.29 -2.21 4.20 4.37 -1.71 -4.80 -9.92 : Bloomberg 2015/7/17
  26. 26. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) 1.0984 1.42 -2.22 0.88 -3.46 -9.18 -18.25 123.81 0.23 -0.93 -3.76 -4.71 -3.16 -17.65 1.5508 -0.59 -1.35 1.88 2.16 -0.33 -8.59 0.9629 -0.15 -3.81 -0.68 -6.09 3.41 -5.98 1.3049 -0.59 -4.91 -7.34 -4.94 -10.90 -17.20 0.7282 -1.21 -5.18 -7.34 -8.27 -10.94 -22.59 1167.87 -1.78 -3.87 -8.33 -7.76 -6.80 -12.32 31.4250 -1.12 -1.68 -2.87 -0.68 0.49 -4.76 6.2095 0.00 -0.01 0.17 0.54 -0.07 -0.36 13447.00 -0.70 -0.88 -3.53 -7.35 -7.95 -13.97 64.0425 -0.90 -0.69 -0.75 -4.07 -1.56 -6.15 34.8950 -1.97 -3.05 -6.46 -6.73 -5.56 -8.72 1.3717 -0.29 -1.83 -3.14 -2.36 -3.33 -9.44 3.8098 -0.34 -0.73 -6.42 -5.64 -8.26 -16.72 45.5200 -0.62 -0.92 -2.72 -3.24 -1.82 -4.81 12.6686 -2.50 -2.95 -4.83 -8.17 -8.28 -16.25 2.7378 -3.20 -1.46 -2.53 -13.83 -14.90 -23.50 58.5915 -2.88 -4.57 -10.95 15.58 3.96 -39.23 3.7724 0.52 -1.01 -2.92 -1.26 -6.08 -18.27 283.60 0.59 -0.91 -2.81 -3.57 -7.74 -18.92 4.0260 1.33 -0.41 0.73 -2.53 -8.00 -18.88 3.3551 -5.24 -7.65 -12.04 -22.99 -20.79 -33.78 16.2669 -2.14 -3.45 -5.52 -10.03 -9.21 -19.96 9.1700 -0.29 -1.10 -3.07 -5.94 -7.69 -10.86 : Bloomberg 2015/7/24
  27. 27. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) () (bp) 30 2.9618 -22.5 -27.8 35.0 56.2 21.0 -27.7 10 2.2624 -12.0 -21.0 34.2 43.9 9.1 -20.3 0.4110 -7.7 -5.9 10.2 14.8 8.2 -12.5 0.6910 -10.0 -15.3 53.6 32.9 15.0 -48.6 0.9670 -27.6 -25.7 54.9 42.4 14.1 -60.8 1.8680 -38.0 -25.6 42.5 34.1 -2.2 -85.9 1.9010 -31.1 -21.2 51.0 52.6 29.0 -65.8 2.5100 -43.2 -23.3 52.4 6.0 -17.7 -118.0 2.8720 -32.0 -32.6 41.5 78.7 35.4 -38.7 9.7200 30.0 32.0 41.0 275.0 170.0 101.0 10.7051 -15.0 -5.7 -14.7 -232.2 -230.2 160.0 3.5500 -29.0 -26.0 30.0 71.0 -5.0 -67.0 8.1420 -12.7 -10.3 10.0 96.7 17.3 -0.1 13.1060 58.9 54.1 46.5 138.9 74.2 142.1 6.1250 6.2 2.2 33.5 80.5 28.1 48.1 2.3350 -18.5 -13.0 4.0 0.3 -27.0 -67.9 8.2640 2.7 -5.7 56.5 101.4 46.8 22.7 * 7.8240 2.0 2.5 3.4 11.8 -3.3 -82.6 9 2.8120 -11.9 -13.5 31.9 17.8 8.3 -89.6 : Bloomberg 2015/7/17
  28. 28. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. / (02)770-88888 6633 (03)620-5699 897 (04)3700-7988 360171 (07)972-1188 39 Copyright2015EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.
  29. 29. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.