Οικονομικό Δελτίο: Τεύχος 16, Δεκέμβριος 2000
Transcript of Οικονομικό Δελτίο: Τεύχος 16, Δεκέμβριος 2000
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TPAEZA TH EAO
Ofi
T 16, 2000
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TPAEZA TH EAO
Ofi
T 16, 2000
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TPAEZA TH EAO
E. B 21
102 50 A
O M -
T. (030-1) 320 2392
Fax (030-1) 323 3025
T
E T A
T E
ISSN 1105 - 8544
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fi (
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1999, 238.000 fi 3.940.000
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1999 fi fi
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fi 7,0% 1990 9,1% 1995. fi
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30
fi
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fi fi
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fi
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1999).
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OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0012
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fi fi fi,
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fi -
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OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 13
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fi
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10 fi .11 . fi fi () 2000.12 . , 14 29.12.2000.13 fi , 160.000. , 3.000 . - fi ( .. 358 359/1997, fi fi . 2434/1996 - .. 241 242/1998, 73 . 2676/1998 20 . 2736/99).
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1999 -
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fi 2001.
fi fi,
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OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0020
24 30.7.2000.25 30.7.2000.26 fi Eurostat (. EricMarlier Sophie Ponthieux, Low-wage employees in EUcountries, Statistics in Focus, Theme 3-11/2000, 2000), European CommunityHousehold Panel, fi 17% fi - 380.000 . fi , 82%, 310.000 , fi fi ( fi fi fi)., (, 14.11.2000), fi 17.500 fi - .
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38 . : 1) Dure, rduction et ammagement dutemps de travail, , La documentation Franaise, 2000), 2) . Bernardo,Francia: lavorare meno per legge, Quale Stato, n. 1/2, 1998,3) Le Monde,20.5.2000, 1.6.2000, 27.6.2000, 1.7.2000, 16-17.7.2000, 4) Financial Times, 4.8.2000, 5) -, 30.7.2000, 6) OECD, Economic Outlook, 2000,. VII.39 fi Aubry 1998 -, . . - , Le Monde ( conomie), 10.10.2000 12.12.2000, fi - Travail et emploi, 82 83, 2000.
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OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0026
40 G. Bertola, T. Boeri, S. Cazes, Employment protection andlabour market adjustment in OECD countries: evolving institutionsand variable enforcement, Employment and training papers o. 48,International Labour Office, 1999. . Annex C.41 fi fi , fi - fi- .42 . -, 2.7.2000.43 .. fi .
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OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 27
44 Developments in and structural features of euro area labourmarkets, ECB, Monthly Bulletin, May 2000.45 O. J. Blanchard, Thinking about unemployment, Baffi Lec-ture, Banca d Italia, 16 1998.46 St. Nickell, Institutions and the workings of the labourmarket, Center for Economic Performance, LSE (paper preparedfor the annual World Bank Conference on DevelopmentEconomics), M 1999.47 T. Boeri, R. Layard S. Nickell, Welfare-to-work and thefight against long-term unemployment, - Blair D Alema fi , 2000.
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1993
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1994
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1995
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2,90
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1996
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1997
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OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 29
48 . 1) F. Modigliani, J.P. Fitoussi, B. Moro, D. Snower,R. Solow, A. Steinherr, P. Sylos Labini, An Economists Manifestoon Unemployment in the European Union, Banca Nazionale delLavoro Quarterly Review, 1998, 2) E.S. Phelps, - ( ), 30 1997, 3) J. Dolado, F. Kramarz, S. Machin, A. Manning, D. Mar-golis C. Teulings, The Economic Impact of Minimum Wagesin Europe, Economic Policy, No. 23, 1996, 4) O.J. Blan-chard, fi..49 fi fi fi fi - fi fi, fi - fi.
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OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 31
50 . 1) J. Morley, Unemployment in the EU an American ora European Solution? Morley et al., Unemployment inEurope: The Policy Challenge, The Royal Institute of InternationalAffairs, Discussion Paper No. 73, 1998, 2) European Commission,Growth and Employment in the Stability-Oriented Framework ofEMU (Economic Policy Reflections in View of the Forthcoming 1998Broad Guidelines), European Economy, No. 65, 1998, 3) Modig-liani et al., fi..51 . Edmond Malinvaud, Les cotisations sociales la charge desemployeurs: analyse conomique, Conseil dnalyse conomique(fi ), 1998.52 . 1) OECD Economic Studies, No. 31, 2000/II (),2) Developments in and structural features of euro area labourmarkets, fi.., 3) OECD, Economic Outlook, 2000, fi..,4) T. Boeri, R. Layard S. Nickell, Welfare-to-work and the fightagainst long-term unemployment, fi.., 5) , fi , 23-24 2000, 6) Making Work Pay, The American Prospect,vol. 11, No. 15, June 19-July 3, 2000 (), 7) Le Monde,31.5.2000 ( - (travailleurs pauvres). -, fi fi , .M. Matsaganis, F. Papadopoulos P. Tsakloglou, Estimatingextreme poverty in Greece and the cost of eliminating it througha minimum income guarantee scheme, Discussion Paper 2000-02, Department of International and European Economic Studies,Athens University of Economics and Business, 2000.
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53 St. Nickell, fi..54 fi .. 2961/54 fi1545/85, 1836/89, 1874/90, 1892/90 2224/94.55 2 . 1545/85.56 12 . 2224/94.57 . 52.
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58 , fi ( ) 2001, (. , - fi -, 2000, . 35-36).59 , 45 46 . fi- 46 , fi - fi 1.840 (=4046) 1.748 (=3846)., .., 23 fi, fi- 38+6=44 ( fi 138=236), fi 23 fi fi 38-6=32 , fi 18 fi . fi, ..fi 12 , fi fi fi 38+11,5=49,5 (fi 1211,5=138), - fi - ( 4 ) fi 34 fi.
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63 - fi fi Jean Pisani-Ferry Plein emploi, fi- 2000, Conseil d analyse conomique (. LeMonde, 6, 12 20.12.2000). - ( Forum), 24.12.2000.64 David Spector - Le Monde ( conomie), 4.7.2000.65 T. Boeri, R. Layard S. Nickell, fi..66 Travail et emploi: reconcilier flexibilit et securit: Jacques Freyssinet fi (18-19.2.2000, ) -fi . fi- (fi . ) ( Forum), 5.3.2000.
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, -
( fi,
65
fi, 15-64 )73
-
fi (
) .
, fi
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-
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(..
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).
OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0040
72 fi fi , - fi fi , fi-, .73 fi ( 1990-91 . E. Bos et al., Worldpopulation projections 1994-95: estimates and projections withrelated demographic statistics, 1994), fi fi ( - ) fi 21,2% 1990 25,5%% 2000, 28,8% 2010, 33,3% 2020 40,3% 2030. . : -fi , , , 1997, . 1-17. - ( 1995), fi fi 25,5% 2000 29,1% 2010, 32,7% 2020 35,4% 2025. fi fi, fi fi - , fi - fi.74 , ( fi 35% 25%) - ( - fi 40% 35%).
-
-
fi, () -
.
, fi fi -
4,
,
fi
fi,
fi fi fi-
fi (
) -
-
.
fi ,
-
fi, fi
-
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.
( .)
: ,
OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 41
-
OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0042
( fi )
fi fi
-
: ,
OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 43
: " " fi fi . , 8 5 ( 25%), - fi 3 "fi " ( 138 46 fi, fi 120 50% fi 18 75%, 4 . 4 fi 53,26%) 0,65 "fi " 75% 4,35 1,35 " " 150%. , 2 ( 7%, fi 28,56% 26,56%) fi, -
fi fi 12,5% . fi fi - 1,56%, fi 0,2%. , ' 13,2% (1 -) 6,2% (2 ). fi 13,0% "1 " 6,0% "2 ", - fi. , fi fi .
, fi 1 20 [(100+20)40=4.800 ], 2 12,5 - [(100+12,5)40=4.500 ]. fi fi 20% 12,5%, ' 20% 13,5%(fi fi ), 4% 2,7% fi fi , , 4,2% 2,9% ( fi fi fi ).
1
1 1
48 48 fi 100 100 ' (40x1)+(8x1,25)=50 (40x1)+(3x1,5326)+
+(0,65x1,75)+(4,35x2,50)=56,61 13,2%
50x100=5.000 56,61x100=5.661 13,2%
fi fi ( ) 5.000x1,2856=6.428 (0,875x5.661x1,2856)+
+(0,125x5.661x1,2656)=7.263 13,0%
48 40 fi 100 120 ' (40x1)+(8x1,25)=50 40
20% 50x100=5.000 40x120=4.800
4% fi fi
( ) 5.000x1,2856=6.428 (0,875x4.800x1,2856)++(0,125x4.800x1,2656)=6.159
4,2% 2
1 1
45 45 fi 100 100 ' (40x1)+(5x1,25)=46,25 (40x1)+(3x1,5326)+
+(0,65x1,75)+(1,35x2,50)=49,11 6,2%
46,25x100=4.625 49,11x100=4.911 6,2%
fi fi ( ) 4.625x1,2856=5.946 (0,875x4.911x1,2856)+
+(0,125x4.911x1,2656)=6.301 6,0%
45 40 fi 100 112,5 ' (40x1)+(5x1,25)=46,25 40
13,5% 46,25x100=4.625 40x112,5=4.500
2,7% fi fi
( ) 4.625x1,2856=5.946 (0,875x4.500x1,2856)++(0,125x4.500x1,2656)=5.774
2,9%
: 45 48 , fi
-
OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0044
: fi 48 ( ) , - 40 . ( fi ) , 38+6=44 (fi 40), fi 38-6=32 ( 40). , (0,65 "fi " 50% 3,35 " " 150%), (21,1 ), 38 40.fi fi ' 1,7% 8,65%,
fi 8,45% fi 10,55%. ( -, fi fi .)
1
1 1
48 48 fi 100 100
' (40x1)+(8x1,25)=50 (40x1 44 )+ +(0,65x1,50)+(3,35x2,50)=49,35
1,3% 50x100=5.000 49,35x100=4.935
1,3%
40 33=[(100 x32 )++(21,1 x38 )]/121,1
fi 100 121,1 ' 40 40
0% 40x100=4.000 40x121,1=4.844
21,1%
' 45 44,23 1,7%
4500 4.889 8,65%
fi fi ( ) 4.500x1,2856=5.785 (0,875x4.889x1,2856)+
+(0,125x4.889x1,2656)=6.274 8,45%
: fi ( )
+
-
: ,
OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 45
: fi 45 ( ) , - 40 . ( fi ) , 38+6=44 (fi 40), fi 38-6=32 ( 40). , (0,65 "fi " 50% 0,35 " " 150%), (21,1 ), 38 40.fi fi ' 5,3% 4,7%,
fi 4,5% fi 10,55%. ( , fi fi .)
2
1 1
45 45 fi 100 100 ' (40x1)+(5x1,25)=46,25 (40x1 44 )+
+(0,65x1,50)+(0,35x2,50)=41,85 9,5%
46,25x100=4.625 41,85x100=4.185 9,5%
40 33=[(100 x32 )++(21,1 x38 )]/121,1
fi 100 121,1 ' 40 40
0% 40x100=4.000 40x121,1=4.844
21,1%
' 43,12 40,84 5,3%
4.312 4.514 4,7%
fi fi ( ) 4.312x1,2856=5.544 (0,875x4.514x1,2856)+
+(0,125x4.514x1,2656)=5.792 4,5%
: fi ( )
+
-
OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0046
-
fi 1
.
.
1.
fi -
fi 11 1 1999 -
-
.
fi, -
-
,
,
. ,
, fi
fi . -
,
fi fi .
fi
1999 10%, fi -
fi 13,5 . .
, fi
fi (9,1%), -
fi 16 . .
, ,
fi fi ,
. fi fi fi -
fi fi
, fi .
,
fi , -
fi -
.2
OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 47
1 fi -. Heather Gibson, fi, fi .2 fi fi fi - (Blanchard, 1997).
-
fi fi
fi fi
.
-
, fi .
fi
.
fi
-
- -
fi -
.
2.
.
. 1
1970-1999.
. . -
-
, fi -
(1973 1979)
90,
fi -
. 1992
, fi -
, fi -
1999 fi
(4,2%). -
, fi
(2-3%)
fi, .
fi 90, fi -
fi -
fi -
fi, ,
fi
1999 4,7%,
fi . .
, , -
fi . fi
, fi
fi (2-3%),
fi
OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0048
-
.
, fi
,
fi
. , -
fi
80, fi fi -
fi fi
10,4% 1986.
80
fi,
8%
90. fi
,
fi ,
,
11%
90. fi 1997, fi -
, -
-
fi fi.
fi fi 9,1% 1999
fi 8,2% 2000.
fi, -
fi
fi -
/. fi-
-
, fi
fi fi -
. . , -
fi
, fi fi
, fi fi -
fi fi , ,
(Bean, 1994b).
fi fi
,
, -
fi -
:
fi fi
fi ( fi -
, Krugman, 1994), -
fi
,
fi fi fi fi,3
fi
, -
... fi fi -
.
fi fi fi
fi fi.4 -
, fi -
, fi
, fi
, , fi ,
-
.
fi
OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 49
3 , fi fi fi , - fi . fi, fi - fi fi fi fi. Blanchard - fi fi fi fi fi, -, fi . , - fi fi , , -fi -fi fi .4 fi NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment), . fi fi - fi fi fi , fi fi 70, fi 80 (Katz and Krueger, 1999).
-
-
fi -
fi -
, fi -
.
fi fi -
(. Sabethai, 1998):
Modigliani (1997), fi 11%
fi , 9%
fi 2% -
. Wyplosz (1997),
fi (3-4%
7-8%). (1998),
9% ,
fi, fi fi fi, 4%
fi -
fi
fi , 5% -
,
fi -
. ,
(OECD, 1998) fi
, fi fi -
fi
fi,5
.
-
,
fi ,
fi .
Nickell (1997),
-
fi ,
fi
,
-
. , fi fi
fi
. ,
fi fi fi .
.
2 fi -
(,
, . , ,
). Nickell (1997),
fi
(.. , )
-
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-
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fi fi fi
.
-
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,
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.
fi
fi, fi
.
fi
, fi fi
fi
OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0050
5 fi fi fi fi fi -fi. fi Phillips ( ) fi fi fi fi fi .
-
.
fi -
.
-
fi 41%
90 46% 1999.
fi
fi
fi. fi (Gibson, 1998)
fi
fi
fi
fi, -
fi -
fi
, fi-
-
: (, ,
) (fi fi
30%) (, -
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( fi 50%).6 ,
, fi
. , -
fi -
fi . -
, fi fi
fi
fi . -
fi
.
fi , ,
fi , ,
, fi
fi
fi 50%
70% fi .
fi fi
fi fi -
. Bean (1994a)
fi
fi
fi
OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 51
6 fi , fi . ( fi 10%).
-
7 1979 1988. -
fi -
1988 ,
1979, fi
, fi -
.
fi -
fi
. , fi
fi .
, fi fi
fi
fi
fi -
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(-
)
(). fi fi, .
fi -
fi
, fi
. -
fi
,
fi fi fi
.
, fi fi-
fi
.
fi
fi fi.8
, fi fi -
,
fi 67%, fi
-
fi -
.
-
. ,
,
fi fi
fi,
fi. ,
fi Siebert (1997), 1970
1996 . 47 -
(
fi 58%),
18 (-
fi 12%). ,
Glyn (1995) fi 1973
1990 .
fi fi 2%,
fi 0,5%.
fi. fi fi
. , -
fi fi fi
fi fi fi-
,
fi fi
OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0052
7 fi fi fi . fi () - , fi fi fi, () ( ) .8 fi fi fi fi (fi fi ) fi .
-
. , .
fi
fi ,
fi ,
fi -
(OECD, 1999).
3.
-
-
, fi fi
fi ,
.
fi fi -
. -
. Bean
(1994a) fi fi-
fi
. -
fi fi -
, -
fi
. fi,
3 (. 54),
-
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-
fi fi ( ) fi-
(fi ).9 PN
-
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.
, fi fi
fi ,
fi -
fi
fi. , fi fi,
fi
fi ,
fi. WW
.
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fi -
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. , -
,
fi
-
-
(
fi ). fi
-
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,
.
PN WW
fi fi fi-
(fi fi-
). fi
fi fi
fi fi .10
,
fi
OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 53
9 , fi fi, - .10 (OECD, 2000) fi fi ( PN WW) fi - .
-
-
fi
.
; fi -
,
fi fi
,
fi
. -
(.. -
) -
(..
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fi fi -
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PN WW
3
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fi
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fi
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(fi ).
fi fi
,
OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0054
-
.
,
,
-
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,
-
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fi
fi fi (reservation
wage), ,11
fi fi
fi,
fi -
fi. fi
70 fi
fi (Siebert, 1997):
-
, fi
, fi fi
fi
fi,
, fi fi-
fi
fi
fi .
fi fi fi ,
(net
replacement ratios),
fi
( fi fi) fi
fi ,
fi 41% 60% .
81% 100%
, fi 21% 40%
. (ECD, 1996).
fi
fi .
. fi
fi,
54 , 33
32 .
, 10 .
,
. 70 80
fi
,
fi , . ,
fi 80.
,
fi -
(OECD, 1994), fi -
fi fi.
. , -
fi
70 80.
,
fi, -
, fi fi
fi-
.
fi
fi
fi
OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 55
11 O fi fi fi - fi .
-
(, , -
, , ).
fi ,
fi fi
70
80. fi :
, fi
fi fi .
fi
fi fi fi-
fi fi fi. , fi
fi fi ,
( )
fi fi fi fi
fi
fi.
-
(.. Layard et al., 1991, OECD, 1994
Nickell, 1997). fi -
fi
. fi -
fi
fi (. OECD, 1991, Nickell,
1997). fi fi, -
fi , -
fi fi
(Card and Krueger, 1995). ,
fi ,
, -
, fi -
, fi fi
(Dolado
et al., 1996).
fi -
fi
,
fi
fi
fi -
.
, fi , -
1% fi
1%, -
fi . ,
fi . , fi-
fi fi
(OECD, 1994).
fi-
.
fi
fi 70
fi , fi
.12
, -
fi 26,5% -
1970 42,1% 1997.
, -
,
10,5% 1970,
16%. fi
OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0056
12 fi - fi -.
-
, fi
,
,
fi .
-
. -
fi fi
(-
: 7,9% 33,5%) (:
21,1% 21,1%),
fi fi (: 33,5%
18,6% : 46,1% 10%).
fi -
fi
. fi
fi
.
,
fi . -
, fi -
.
-
(Nickell, 1997 Bean et al., 1986),
-
. Bean et al.
(1986), , fi
10 -
25%
2
.
Siebert (1997),
.
, , fi fi
.
fi .
fi fi
fi
. fi fi
, fi
-
.
fi
. ,
fi
fi , .
fi fi
,
(. Freeman, 1995
Krugman, 1994).
, , fi
(Gibson, 1998, Nickell, 1997): ,
fi , fi
-
fi. , fi
fi -
fi fi
70 80 fi fi, 60,
, fi Morley (1998), -
fi
OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 57
-
fi
fi
-
. , . (
. ) -
-
fi fi fi, . , -
( fi 100%)
. fi
70,
. ,
fi
-
fi-
fi.
fi
M
-
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fi
fi -
. fi
( . ), -
fi fi -
fi . Nickell (1997, . 63) -
fi
,
fi -
fi . fi -
fi fi ,
(70-85%).
. ,
(15%). fi
, Nickell
-
, fi -
fi -
.
fi fi
fi 70% fi fi .
Nickell
1983-1994 fi
fi -
.
,
fi,
. fi
. , fi
fi
fi fi fi -
,
, fi
( fi -
, . ). -
fi Nickell fi fi fi
-
fi fi
.
OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0058
-
,
fi
fi , fi,
-
-
.
fi fi -
. fi -
,13 -
fi fi
, fi -
.
. fi
fi fi
-
. (OECD, 1994) fi
fi fi
. (1), fi
fi
.
, fi
,
-
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fi fi
3.
fi fi
fi
.
Calmfors and Driffill (1988) fi
fi
-
-
. ,
fi fi -
-
,
fi .14
Calmfors Driffill, , -
,
fi
. fi
, . -
, , -
: -
fi -
.
fi
OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 59
13 fi fi . , fi fi fi (European Commission, 1998b).14 fi fi fi - fi - fi fi - . , ( - ), fi fi fi - . , fi ( ) fi fi, fi .
-
fi -
fi,
fi,
fi fi fi fi
. -
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fi fi fi
fi
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.
fi
,
fi fi
fi fi .
fi fi -
, fi
(hysteresis).
fi, fi -
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fi. fi
:
fi fi
(insiders-outsiders) fi-
.
,
fi -
, -
. fi
fi fi
fi -
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(fi )
. ,
(
fi) fi
( fi fi
), fi -
.
,
(. ean, 1994a).
fi
fi fi
fi , fi
fi fi
.
fi fi
fi
, fi fi
-
,
fi fi .
,
fi
-
. , -
fi fi
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fi
fi ,
fi -
fi -
fi . Bean (1994a)
-
fi
(
OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0060
-
) fi
fi
. , fi -
fi fi fi fi
fi (Machin
and Manning, 1998).
fi fi fi fi
, fi -
-
.
fi
fi
.
4. -
fi
fi ( fi
1994-99: 2,5%), fi-
fi fi
fi -
fi .
15 fi
fi fi
3,5% ,
fi, 10 fi
fi
3% 4% fi -
fi, 70%. -
fi, -
( fi 7% ,
22%-23% , fi
19% ),
fi-
-
-
. fi fi
1993 (European
Commission, 1993),
, fi -
fi, fi fi fi
fi 19%
23%-24% ( fi -
60),
fi 3,5% fi
1,5% .
fi , fi
fi fi fi ,
fi fi -
1993. ,
fi
90 (Sabethai, 1998). fi
fi (European Commission,
1998a, b) fi-
fi -
. fi fi
,
fi fi -
fi ,
fi -
fi -
. fi
-
fi :
fi
OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 61
15 . fi - fi, C 368/20.12.1999.
-
fi fi
fi fi
fi fi,
-
.
fi fi
, -
fi
fi-
.
, fi
,
fi fi
fi , -
fi
50 60
.
, fi fi ,
-
fi
fi.
, fi (
) -
.
fi -
fi fi
fi fi-
( 125-130) fi -
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fi. , ,
- -
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.
-
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-,
fi fi-
fi
fi fi fi
. fi, fi fi-
fi .
, fi
fi
(European Commission,
1998d).
fi
( 1997)
fi-
. (OECD, 1999):
fi fi fi
fi fi
,
-
(Joint Employment Report). fi
-
fi (Employment
Guidelines) fi . fi
, fi
, (Recommenda-
tions) -.
-
1998 19 -
fi 4 : (i)
fi fi, (ii)
, (iii)
OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0062
-
fi (iv) fi-
.
-
fi, - -
,
fi -
.16
fi
-
fi -
-
fi, fi
.
17
fi-
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, -
fi.
fi-
, fi ,
,
-
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.
,
-
fi
,
fi
.
fi
, fi
fi -
fi -
fi .
fi -
fi fi
fi -
, fi -
fi
fi
(European Commission, 1998c). -
fi - ,
fi
fi fi -
.
fi ( fi
) fi
(.. -
fi ). fi fi
fi
, fi
fi.
fi
OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 63
16 fi fi 1998.17 : () fi fi fi , () fi -fi , () fi, -fi fi fi fi (. OECD, 1993).
-
,
fi, -
, fi
, -
, fi
. -
fi ,
, -
fi
fi
.
, fi -
-
fi fi
fi fi, fi
.. ,
, -
, .. -
fi -
(fi-
) -
fi .
fi
fi fi -
,
.
fi
50%
fi 1993 (European
Commission, 1998c). fi
-
fi, fi -
fi
fi .
, fi , Nickell (1997)
fi fi
fi
fi
fi,
fi -
fi
.18
fi
-
fi-
fi fi
.
fi fi
fi .
- -
18-29 -
1
fi fi
6 .
fi
OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0064
18 fi fi - fi fi - : () - 2002 ( .. ) - 30-64 . () - fi 20% . fi - .
-
-
-
fi
( 2002).
fi
fi , fi,
-
-
, fi
fi
fi fi 12 .
fi
fi -
2 fi
30-64 ,
12 , -
fi,
-
fi fi .
-
fi, -
(European Commission, 1998c).
fi fi fi
fi
fi
. ,
fi
.
fi
fi
fi
-
, fi
(European Commission, 1999). -
fi -
fi 40,4%
1998, fi
. 54%. fi
fi fi
fi, . fi
.
(European Commission, 1998c) -
,
fi :
() ( -
, , -
,
fi ),
fi
-
. , fi -
fi fi,
-
fi ,
fi
fi fi , -
,
fi
fi: fi -
fi fi
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fi
.
() ,
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fi fi
fi
OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 65
-
fi
fi ,
fi
. fi fi-
fi fi
.
fi -
fi fi fi
fi, fi fi -
. () ,
,
, fi-
fi
-
fi
fi.
-
fi 1999 -
,
-
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-
, -
fi fi
. fi -
(European Commission, 1999),
fi - -
fi
. -
fi
, -
, -
-
.
5.
fi fi
. fi
fi
-
.
,
fi fi -
, -
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. ,
.. ,
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,
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-
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,
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. , -
OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0066
-
fi fi
fi ,
fi
-
-
. ,
fi
fi
fi, -
, -
fi.
fi fi
fi , -
fi
(auro et al., 1999). , -
fi fi
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fi
(
fi fi)
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-
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fi -
fi fi fi
fi -
fi.
fi
OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 67
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Bean, C.R. (1994a), European Unemployment: A Sur-
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Bean, C.R. (1994b), European Unemployment, Two
Decades Later. European Unemployment: A Retro-
spective, European Economic Review, 38, pp. 523-34.
Bean, C.R., Layard, R. and Nickell, S.J. (1986), The Rise
in Unemployment: A Multi-Country Study, Econ-
omica, Supplement 53, S1-S22.
Blanchard, O. (1997), Macroeconomics, Prentice-Hall,
New Jersey.
Calmfors, L. and Driffill, J. (1998), Bargaining Struc-
ture, Corporatism and Macroeconomic Performance,
Economic Policy, 15, pp. 14-61.
Card, D. and Krueger, A. (1995), Myth and Measure-
ment: The Economics of the Minimum Wage, Princeton
University Press, Princeton.
Dolado, J., Kramarz, F, Machin, S., Manning, A.,
Margolis, B. and Teulings, C. (1996), The Economic
Impact of Minimum Wages in Europe, Economic
Policy, 23, pp. 319-72.
European Commission (1993), White Book on Growth,
Competitiveness and Employment, Bulletin of the EU,
Supplement 6.
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Employment in the Stability-Oriented Framework of
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fi
OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 69
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OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0076
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fi Yt, Wt, fi fi
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fi ,
fi
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fi -
fi fi
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fi.
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OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 77
5 fi fi - , . fi fi.
-
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fi Yt-1 (4) fi
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OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0078
6 Ht =
=0(1+)(t+|It)
7 - Hall , fi, , -, fi fi , fi (.. - ) , fi, fi , Baxter and Jermann, 1999.
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fi-
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fi fi -
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Ct = (1 )(1 + )(1 )Ct1 +
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fi (1) fi
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