WHO LIVES IN NEW DWELLINGS?

Steve ClyneEFM LTD

BSPS Annual Conference September 10 - 12 2008

In this economic climate? No-one

Who Lives in New Housing?Child Focused Perspectives

Data Sources

– Census Tables– Census Child Theme Tables– Census Commissioned Tables– Census Postcode Tables– Forecasting Services– Survey of English Housing– Annual Birth Data– Survey Data– Annual Monitoring Reports (AMR)– AMR Source Data– Pupil Level Annual School Census Data– Cohort Survival Data– Dynamic Monitoring– Land Registry– Hometrack– Electoral Roll

Census Data

Census is a snapshot in time with two exceptions

Wholly migrant families in the prior year (CO549 & CO511)

andWhen sorted by postcode start date

Commissioned Outputs CO549 & CO511

• Census by local authority area by dwelling type, tenure and number of rooms (CO549)

• Same criteria for wholly migrating families in the year prior to census (CO511)

CO 549

Census uses a differentinterpretation of number of rooms to everyone else.

Converting ‘Census’ Rooms to Bedrooms

• b Drawn from ‘households by tenure of accommodation, by number of rooms, by number of bedrooms’.

Census by Postcode

• Merging the ‘All Fields Postcode Directory’ with ‘2001 Postcode Headcounts’ creates a unique view of census.

• The number of people and number of dwellings for each postcode in an identified census output area (OA) with the date that the postcode was created or abolished.

• This permits the census to be trawled by creation date to isolate the ‘new dwellings’.

Census Data for New Dwellings

Census Based Dynamic Modelling Cohort Survival (for demographers)*

• Chelmer and PopGroup and ….

• Logical and plausible : widely used and accepted

• Census + births + inward migration – deaths and outward migration identifies the need to add or subtract dwelling numbers (bit of an over-simplification but …)

School Place Planners use the term to mean something else

Cohort Survival 2

• For forecasting populations in new dwellings• Migration led forecast (census + births, etc) =

dwelling need• Reverse the process and constrain same forecast

to zero dwelling growth (population forecast for stock dwellings)

• Subtract zero growth from migration led to identify the population in new dwellings

Cohort Survival 3

• Assumes same dwelling and tenure mix as at census : results have to be manipulated to reflect contemporary mixes.

Chelmer Forecast

Surveys of New DwellingsKent 2006 South Gloucestershire 2006

Wiltshire (not published) Richmond 2006

Oxfordshire 2005 Conwy 2005

Northamptonshire 2005 Berkshire Authorities 2005

Oxfordshire 2004 Wandsworth 2004

Huntingdon 2003

Kent 1999 Ely 2002

Wandsworth 1997 Surrey 1997 - 99

Surveys of New Dwellings?

• Of variable quality, Kent 2006 is the most thorough and detailed to date. Key questions: eg When you moved to this address, did your children change school? now being routinely asked.

• Although not as yet published Wandsworth have revisited an earlier survey to assess turnover of new properties.

(Found to be surprisingly stable, ie same number of children getting older).

Kent Survey

Kent Survey

Real Data

• Sourced from Planning Authority (Annual Monitoring Report researchers) list of new dwellings (since 2001) Type, No. Bedrooms, Tenure, Address including postcode.

• Sourced from Education Authority number of children, by school phase, enrolled in local schools with same postcode.

Real Data 2

New developments most usually have their own postcode.Bigger developments often have different postcode by dwelling type and tenure.

PLASC

• Pupil Level Annual School Survey– Detailed survey of every school, on the same day,

every year includes pupils’ home postcodes.

– Every school child has a unique identifier throughout their education.

Cohort Survival (education)

• Very accurate short-term forecasting method for the school places needed– It is the relationship between the number of births in the

area leading to the number of children in Reception Classes four years later

– Thereafter the number of children in each year group that appear in the next higher group, a year later

Dynamic Modelling

• Ebbsfleet Valley is an ‘up to 12,000 dwellings’ development underway at Dartford.

• To be delivered over 25 years.

• The planning permissions identify the quantum of land safeguarded for schools.

Dynamic Modelling

• The Education Review Group (mix of developer and LEA representatives) meet six monthly, share information and plan delivery for the next stage.

• The strength is that the pace of delivery can be adjusted to match forecast demand over a shorter timescale .

Other Data Sources

• Hometrack

• Land Registry

• Electoral Roll

Conclusions

• Lots of relevant data sources. No source is sufficiently reliable on its own.

• New developments have a significantly different population to local stock dwellings.

• New dwellings become stock dwellings only over a long period

Finally

• http://schoolplaceplan.jot.com/WikiHome

• A Wiki site devoted to the sharing and exchange of information and ideas about forecasting the population in new dwellings.

• These pages will be posted as will my notes.• Password from stephen@efm-ltd.co.uk