Post on 01-Jan-2017
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 1
The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion
Guenter Janeschitz
Deputy Head of Central Integration Office
ITER Organisation
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 2
Outline
Motivation for fusion development, Fusion Basics and History of ITER (very brief):
ITER and its mission,
Road-map and Technologies needed for DEMO (very brief)
Conclusion
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 3
Primary Energy usage in Germany 2013
We have finite oil and gas resources and reserves
Depending on growth oil / gas could be very expensive within 2 decades
To replace only half of it means Terra W of energy from other sources (nuclear,
coal, renewables, fusion)
Climate change prevents the increase of coal usage !!
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 4
What is the Economic Environment Fusion
has to compete in ?
• Looking 50 years into the future the time of cheap oil and
gas will be over
– 2.5 billion people (IN, CN) having an increase of use of oil of 5% to 8%/a
– Even with Fracking the present reserves are final => higher prices
– We enter the electric century => traffic, heating, industry => electric !!
– Significant increase of electricity production will be needed > factor 2
– Air transport still needs fuel => Bio mass !!
• => remaining options beside Fusion are:
– Renewables, Fission, Coal
– Coal is problematic => climate change, pollution
– Fission is a good solution but has acceptance issues in some countries
– => Fusion needed in mid- to long term as base energy source !!
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 5
Schematic View of a future Fusion Power Reactor
Fusion can
be a long
term solution
not a short term fix
Power
generated
by hot plasma
(20 keV =
200 Mio °C)
4/5 th of
Power
transported
by 14 MeV Neutrons
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 6
Energy Gain from Nuclear
Reactions
The Quantum mechanic tunnel
effect makes fusion possible
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 7
• Which
• Fusion
• reaction ?
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 8
Tritium T3: ~ 150 kg/a
Needed resources for Fusion energy production
breeding with Lithium reaction
Only 300 kg Li6 needed per year
6Li + n 3T + 4He + 4.8 MeV
Deuterium D2: ~ 100 kg/a in 5*1016 kg Oceans
About 1011 kg Lithium in
landmass
Sufficient for 30’000 years
About 1014 kg Lithium in oceans
Sufficient for 30 million years !!
Sufficient for 30 billion years !!
Considering all energy in the world is produced by fusion
1. one year operation of a D-T-Fusion Power Plant, ~1000 MW
electrical
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 9
Magnetic Confinement of a plasma with 10 to 20 keV
Coils Plasma Magnetic Fieldline
Stellarator
W7X
Tokamak
Helical field
required
A toroidal magnetic system
needs:
• a helical field configuration
to compensate drifts
• a magnetic well
Two successful systems:
Stellarator / Tokamak - ITER
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 10
A modern Tokamak – Vertical-, Radial-, Divertor Fields
Divertor
Transformator
Poloidal field coils Vertical Field
Magnetic well
Radial control
Radial Field
vertical control
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 11
Methods for the heating the tokamak plasma
antenna
wave guide
HIGH
FREQUENCY
HEATING
plasma current
OHMIC HEATING
ion
source
neutralis
er
„ion cemetery“
high energetic
atoms
accelerator
transmission line
source: Forschungszentrum Jülich
ICRH
ECRH
HEATING BY
NEUTRAL BEAM
INJECTION
ionized
atoms
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 12
Energy and particle Transport is governed by turbulence
Radial size of turbulent
structures can be reduced
by ExB shear, by
magnetic shear and by
zonal flows produced by
the turbulence itself
Ion Turbulent energy
transport sets in at a
critical temperature
gradient which depends
on the local temperature
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 13
ITER Cooperation
• 1978 (November): First “Steering
Committee of the INTOR Workshop”
convenes in Vienna. INTOR was the
first attempt at building a truly
international fusion programme.
INTOR was very close to ITER in its
concept.
• 1985 (November): At Geneva
Superpower Summit in 1985
US president Reagan and Secretary
General Gorbatchev propose an
international effort to develop fusion
energy... "as an inexhaustible source
of energy for the benefit of mankind".
This is the first political step to the
ITER programme
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 14
21/11/2006: ITER Agreement Signed
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 15
The ITER Machine - V: 840m3
R/a: 6.2m /2m
Vertical elongation: 1.85
Triangularity: 0.45
- Density: 1020m- 3
- PeakTemperature:17keV
-Fusion gain Q = 10
-Fusion Power: ~500MW
-Ohmic burn 400 sec
-Goal Q=5 for 3000 sec
- Plasma Current : 15MA
- Toroidal field: 5.4T
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 16
Physics Goals:
• ITER is designed to produce a plasma dominated by a-particle heating
• produce a significant fusion power amplification factor (Q ≥ 10) in long-pulse operation
• aim to achieve steady-state operation of a tokamak (Q = 5)
• retain the possibility of exploring ‘controlled ignition’ (Q ≥ 30)
Technology Goals:
• demonstrate integrated operation of technologies for a fusion power plant
• test components required for a fusion power plant
• test concepts for a tritium breeding blanket
Goals of ITER – Design Specification
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 17
Tokamak Machine and Complex
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 18
PF Coil Facility
ITER IO Headquarters
Contractors area
Tokamak Complex Construction underway
Assembly Hall Construction underway
400 kV switchyard
Cryostat Workshop
Headquarters extension
Storage area 2 Storage area 3
Storage area 1
Batching plant
Cryoplant Construction underway
Preparatory works
Cooling systems
Preparatory works
Control Building
Cleaning facility Construction underway
(Aerial Photo April 2015)
Preparatory works
Magnet Conversion Power
Transformers
Worksite progress
Service Building
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 19
Tokamak
building
Hot Cell
building
ITER Assembly / Remote Handling / Hot Cell
PBS 23-3
Transfer cask
PBS 23-6
Hot Cell RH
PBS 23-5
NB RH
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 20
Overview of Sector Sub-Assembly
Installation on Transport
Frame
Upending of VV Sector
Installation on Sector Sub-Assembly
Tool
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 21
Assembly Hall
Before being integrated in the machine, the components will be prepared and pre-assembled in this 6,000 m2,
60-metre high building. The Assembly Hall will be equipped with a double overhead travelling crane with a lifting
capacity of 1,500 tons, whose installation is scheduled in June.
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 22
• The ITER magnet system is made up of
− 18 Toroidal Field (TF) Coils, (EU&JA)
− a 6-module Central Solenoid (CS), (US)
− 6 Poloidal Field (PF) Coils, (EU&RF)
− 9 pairs of Correction Coils (CC). (CN)
− 31 Feeders (CN)
Pair of
TF Coils
PF & CC Coils
ITER Magnets are Produced in a World wide Collaboration
CS Coil
TF Cross
section
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 23
1st TF Coil Winding Pack - Europe
European Domestic
Agency contractors have
made significant
progress in
the fabrication of the first
toroidal field winding
pack—the 110-ton inner
core of ITER's D-shaped
superconducting Toroidal
Field Coils.
Following sophisticated,
multi-stage winding
operations, seven layers
of coiled superconducting
cable (double pancakes)
have now been
successfully stacked and
electrically insulated.
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 24
Too large to be transported by road, four of ITER’s six ring-shaped magnets (the poloidal field coils)
will be assembled by Europe in this 12,000 m² facility. “White rooms” are currently being equipped
prior to the start of manufacturing operations (mockup) in the summer of 2016.
PF Coil winding facility
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 25
Manufacturing Central Solenoid - US
General Atomics (GA) has
launched fabrication of the
1,000-ton superconducting
Central Solenoid. The
component It will be among the
most powerful magnets ever
built with each of the six
modules containing the
equivalent energy of 1,000 cars
racing 150 km/h.
A major milestone was achieved
on 6 April with the winding the
first Central Solenoid module.
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 26
Cryostat Workshop - India
The Indian Domestic Agency has erected the Cryostat Workshop for the assembly of the 30 x 30 m.
cryostat, or giant “thermos”, that will completely enclose the ITER Tokamak. The first cryostat
elements, shown here, arrived at ITER in December, achieving the first Milestone ahead of schedule.
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 27
Dec 2015
69,47%
8,57%
3,43%
3,89% 4,98%
4,67% 4,98%
The international staff of the ITER Organization (Central Team) comprises ~ 650
persons (35 countries). An equivalent number of contractors and experts are
directly working for ITER in Saint-Paul-lez-Durance. More than 2,000 specialists
work for ITER throughout the world.
IO Staff distribution by ITER Member
Who works for ITER?
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 28
Outline Research Plan Structure (staged approach)
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 29
The knowledge and the know-how gained during the ITER construction
and the exploration of ITER’s hot plasmas will be used to conceive a
prototype fusion reactor that will test the large-scale production of
electrical power and tritium fuel self-sufficiency: DEMO
ITER is the key facility in this strategy and the DEMO design/R&D will
benefit largely from the experience gained with ITER construction.
The term DEMO describes more of a phase than a single machine.
For the moment, different conceptual DEMO projects are under
consideration by all of the Member nations participating in ITER and it’s
too early to say whether DEMO will be an international collaboration like
ITER, or a series of national projects.
What comes after ITER ? The Road Map to a Reactor
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 30
Pebble
Bed
Blanket
400-550°C
Vacuum
Vessel
~100°C
DEMO = Demonstration Fusion Reactor Plant
Main Technology Developments needed for DEMO
Vertical
Manifold
~320°C
Strong
Ring
Shield
~320°C
He cooled
Breeding Blanket
and T-extraction
He cooled Divertor
Low Activation Structural
Material for the “In
Vessel” Components
which can withstand the
large neutron fluence
(150 dpa end of life)
Allows 5 year lifetime for
blanket
Erosion will determine
lifetime for Divertor = 2
years Heating Systems
extended to Steady state
(ITER -> 3000 sec) and
high availability – a
challenge today !!
Improved RH Systems
which can act faster than
presently foreseen in
ITER have to be
developed - availability
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 31
Low activation Structuiral Material Development
Low Activation Structural
Materials
Behaviour of the γ-Dosisrate over
time after neutron irradiation of up
to 12.5 MWa/m2
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 32
First Electricity ~2050
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 33
Conclusions • While there are still issues in Technology and Physics to solve we have come a long way
already towards being ready for building a Reactor / DEMO – ITER is the most important
step towards this goal
• Due to a practically certain increase of electricity production cost (finite Oil and Gas
resources) Fusion can be competitive without assuming very advanced physics and
technology
– Such advanced physics and technology may be achieved eventually or maybe not; --- but
very likely not very near term (in the next 50 years)
• To be economical one needs large plant sizes (2.5 GW electric) and possibly 3 plants at
one location – share infrastructure
– Strong Grid needed => is anyway driven by renewables
• To reduce the size of the tokamak is not economic because the ratio of electricity into
the Grid and capital costs becomes unattractive
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 34
“Inner” Fusion DEMO / Reactor DT Fuel Loop In ITER Tritium recycling
is 350 kg/year
In ITER 1 kg/year burned
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 35
• Earlier safety studies of fusion power plant concepts are
relevant to DEMO / Reactor safety
– European Safety and Environment Assessments of Fusion Power
(SEAFP), 1992-99
– European Power Plant Conceptual Studies (PPCS), 2001-05
•
ITER safety and licensing
– Safety case developed, safety analyses performed, safety design
implemented
– Documented in the Preliminary Safety Report (RPrS)
– Extensive examination by French nuclear regulator
– Decret d’Autorisation de Création granted, November 2012
Safety - ITER is a first Example
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 36
Management of major reactor consumables • A viable fusion power reactor is to produce 5 GW FP for ~ 300 fpd/yr,
and 60 to 80 year life, i.e.:
– 10 x times ITER Fusion power and 100 times in duration
another 3 orders of magnitude to go !
• Because of overbreeding, and to bridge long(er) plant outages a
surplus of tritium needs to be stored (>100 kg) (4 kg in ITER)
• The results obtained of fusion materials R&D and reactor studies
show that a viable fusion reactor could have:
– Peak neutron fluence: 30 dpa/yr
– End-of-life fluence: 150 dpa
• For 60 year plant life, it implies that about 10 full blanket
exchanges are needed in addition to10-20 divertor exchanges.
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 37
The answer is yes by approximately 10 to 15 years => “Ultra Fast Track” –
Apollo Program like Development
if the construction of a DEMO starts ~ 2020 to 2022 and thus the built-up of a
team, the design and the R&D in 2018 to 2020 !!
Development and construction cost ~ 25 to 30 billion € for the complete
program (including e.g. IFMIF) spread over 15 years
DEMO will demonstrate availability and economic feasibility, see below
In later stages advanced blanket designs can be tested in DEMO =>
Testbed !!
The starting point would be the design of the large ITER machine from the 90th
It will be modified to allow stronger plasma shaping, a bigger major
raidius (~10 m) and to incorporate a He cooled solid breeder blanket
and a He cooled divertor => (~ 1.5 to 2 GW electric net output, 5 to 6
GW thermal)
A ~5 billion R&D and qualification program including IFMIF will be part of
such an endeavor
Can we accelerate fusion development further ?
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 38
Cost of Fusion Energy
Typical CoE figures; variability due
to differing assumptions
• Carbon (green) costs could be much
larger than shown – infinite?
• Renewables and nuclear present CoEs
that are dominated by fixed costs
• Assume that fusion costs will not be too
different from fission:
• Take for example, 2GWe, 60 years
lifetime, 70% availability and $33B
capital.
• 4% mortgage (cf 2060 UK Treasury
bonds) over 60(30) years gives a CoE
contribution of 117(77) $/MWh
Source: Wood MacKenzie in http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30919045
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 39
2GWe => $30bn capital cost
ITE 60 year loan
(4%)
60 year loan
(3%)
capital cost + interest ($B) 86 71
10 divertor changes ($B) 5 5
10 blanket changes ($B) 5 5
operating costs ($B) 12 12
Total Costs ($B) 108 93
Minimum price ($/MWh) 145 124
• Above have assumed 2GWe , 70% availability & 60 years operation
• Capital cost should not be very sensitive to electrical output power.
• Therefore, 1GWe would nearly double price of electricity!
Guenter Janeschitz– The Long Term Future: Nuclear Fusion, 27 June 2016 Page 40
0
5 104
1 105
1,5 105
2 105
2,5 105
3 105
Last100% opt mix
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Duration Curves for 100% Renewable Sources
• 100%-case:
back-up energy = surplus energy
• Even for the 100 % case a thermal
back-up system is needed as long
as storage is not available
• Peak supply would require totally
uneconomic installed capacity
• 40% share of renewables is a
realistic maximum
• International inter-connects
improves matters by sharing of
peak supply
• Base load supply needed
• Fusion is needed!
surplus
back-up
time (months)
Supply
Demand
Courtesy of F Wagner