Lean Startup Dr. Judith Gentz Fachhochschule Wedel | 8. Juni 2016 4 Startup-Analytics

4 Startup Analytics

Teil 1

Startup Analytics

Teil 2

Till Kubelke und Daniel Hanelt im Gespräch

Absolventen der FH Wedel und seit der Uni über 15 Jahre überzeugte Unternehmer

Validiertes Lernen ist ein Prozess, der empirisch nachweist,

dass ein Team wichtige Wahrheiten über die

gegenwärtigen und zukünftigen

Geschäftsaussichten entdeckt hat.

Quelle: Ries, Eric (2011): The Lean Startup. New York 2011

Validiertes Lernen

Build

Measure Learn

Experiment

Metric Hypothesis

Quelle: Ries, Eric (2011): The Lean Startup. New York 2011

? Was sind Metriken bei einem Startup?

Visits

Logins

Satisfaction

Clicks

Usage

Returns Shares

Access

Sign-ups

Downloads

Tell friends

Payments

Gross Profit

ROI (Return on Invest)

Life Time Value

Churn Rate

Conversionrates

Month-on-month Growth Customer Acquisition Costs

Cost per Action

Active Users

Revenue Recurring Revenue

Accessible Auditable

Actionable

3 A‘s of metrics

ties specific, repeatable actions to observed results

can be understood by entire team

go behind the numbers

Quelle: Ries, Eric (2011): The Lean Startup. New York 2011

Einfache Charts

Quelle: Maurya, Ash (2012): Running Lean: Iterate from Plan A to a Plan That Works. Sebastopol/CA 2012 http://de.slideshare.net/LeanStartupConf/ash-maurya-slides-2013

Fortschritt kommunizieren

Quelle: Maurya, Ash (2012): Running Lean: Iterate from Plan A to a Plan That Works. Sebastopol/CA 2012

Problem/ Solution-Fit

Product/ Market-Fit Scale

Start here! Achieve this

Traction

Time

Lean Startup Stages

Quelle: Maurya, Ash (2012): Running Lean: Iterate from Plan A to a Plan That Works. Sebastopol/CA 2012

Problem/ Solution-Fit

Product/ Market-Fit Scale

Traction

Time

Lean Startup Stages

Quelle: Maurya, Ash (2012): Running Lean: Iterate from Plan A to a Plan That Works. Sebastopol/CA 2012

Interviews

Demos

Videos

Landing Page

MVP Minimum

Viable Product

Quelle: Maurya, Ash (2012): Running Lean: Iterate from Plan A to a Plan That Works. Sebastopol/CA 2012

Problem Interview Skript

1. Persönliches Feedback z.B. via Blogs, Kunden-Interviews

2. Offene Fragen/zuhören, was Leute sagen z.B. via Communities

3. Kundenfeedback und Bedarfe ermitteln z.B. via Umfragen mit und ohne monetären Anreiz

4. Substanzielles Feedback durch Vorbestellungen z.B. via Crowdfunding Plattformen, Bestellungen

5. Kundenversprechen testen/Kundensegmente ermitteln z.B. via Test Ads

Quelle: Teten, David (2015): 10 Experiments to Test Your Startup Hypothesis, http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/243528

Weitere Experimente Phase 1: Problem-Solution-Fit

6. Nutzungs- und Verwendungsexperimente z.B. via A/B-Testings, Prototypen-Designs

7. Feedback über die Verwendung z.B. Gespräche mit echten Kunden über die Benutzung des Prototypen

Quelle: Teten, David (2015): 10 Experiments to Test Your Startup Hypothesis, http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/243528

Experimente Phase 2: Product-Market-Fit

8. Kundensegmentierung z.B. Verkaufsversprechen für welche Zielgruppen, Google Adwords-Analyse mit Kohorten- und Conversiontracking

9. Channel-Analyse (welcher Kanal erzielt die höchste Markttraktion) z.B. Cross-Promotion, Channel-Tests Influencer-Analyse

10. Weiterempfehlungen (mit und ohne monetären Anreiz)

Quelle: Teten, David (2015): 10 Experiments to Test Your Startup Hypothesis, http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/243528

Experimente Phase 2: Product-Market-Fit

Build

Measure Learn

Idea Code

Data Quelle: http://theleanstartup.com/principles

MVP Minimum Viable Product

A minimum viable product (MVP) is the "version of a new product which allows a team to collect the maximum amount of validated learning about customers with the least effort“. Eric Ries

Minimum Viable

Product Idea Creation

Feature Priori-

tisation

Implement Feature

Test Feature

Collect Feedback

& Data

Customer Analysis

Different Base

Product Pivot

Time

Test Software Test Business Model

Software Product Concierge Product

Hardware Product Physical Product

Test Hardware Test Business Model Test Software

Launch MVP

€€

Launch MVP

In Anlehnung an: Chen, Elaine (2013): Lean Startup, Hardware Edition, http://de.slideshare.net/chenelaine/lean-startup-hardware-edition-20563840, S. 52

Video Trailer Concierge MVP Mechanical Turk Boomerang Analog/physical Dry-Wallet High Hurdle

Lean Experiment Techniques

Kramer, the Movie Expert

Quelle: Cooper, Brant (2014): Lean Experiment Techniques, http://www.movestheneedle.com/enterprise-lean-startup-experiment-examples/

Experiment Report | Ash Maurya

Background What are you trying to learn or achieve?

Results Enter your qualitative/quantitative data.

Validated Learning Summarize your learning from the experiment. [VALIDATED or INVALIDATED]

Next Action What is the next experiment?

Falsifiable Hypotheses Declare your expected outcome. Use this format: [Specific Repeatable Action] will [Expected Measurable Outcome]

Details How will you setup this experiment?

Title: [TITLE] Author: [NAME] Created: [DATE]

Quelle: Maurya, Ash (2012): Running Lean: Iterate from Plan A to a Plan That Works. Sebastopol/CA 2012

Pirate Metrics

Acquisition

Activation

Retention

Referral

Revenue

Customer Funnel

How do users find you?

Do users have a great first experience?

Do users come back?

Do users tell others?

How do you make money?

Quelle: McClure, Dave (2007) Startup Metrics for Pirates.

5 Step Web-Startup Metric Model

Activation

Acquisition

Referral

Retention

Revenue

AARRR

Quelle: McClure, Dave (2007) Startup Metrics for Pirates.

1. Problem/Solution-Fit Activation & Retention 2. Product/Market-Fit Acquisition & Referral 3. Skalierung Revenue & Profitability

Prozess

Quelle: McClure, Dave (2007) Startup Metrics for Pirates.

Activation 1st visit happy experience

Homepage/ Landing Page

Product Features

Was machen die Nutzer bei Ihrem ersten Besuch? Schlüssel-Metriken

− Pages per visit − Time on site − Conversions

Quelle: McClure, Dave (2007) Startup Metrics for Pirates.

Retention come back multiple usage

Warum kommen Nutzer zurück und wie oft?

Schlüssel-Metriken

− Quelle der Wiederkehrer − Wiederkehrrate − Conversions − Nutzerloyalität − Session-Länge

E-Mails, Alerts

System-Events, Time-based features

Blogs, RSS, News Feeds

Quelle: McClure, Dave (2007) Startup Metrics for Pirates.

Acquisition come from various channels

Wo kommen die Nutzer her?

Schlüssel-Metriken je Quelle

− Anzahl Nutzer − Kosten − Conversion

SEO

SEM Social

Networks

PR

Blogs

Campaigns, Contents

Biz Dev Direct, Tel, TV

Domains

Apps, Widgets

E-Mail

Affiliates

Quelle: McClure, Dave (2007) Startup Metrics for Pirates.

Referral like product enough refer to others

Wie empfehlen Nutzer das Produkt weiter?

Schlüssel-Metriken

− % Einladungen X − # Einladungen Y − % akzeptierte

Einladungen Z Viral Growth Factor = X*Y*Z

Viral Loops

E-Mail Widgets

Affiliates Contests

Quelle: McClure, Dave (2007) Startup Metrics for Pirates.

Revenue monetization behavior

Wie verdiene ich Geld?

Schlüssel-Metriken

− Minimum Umsatz − Break-even Umsatz − Profitabilität

Ads, Lead Generation,

Subscriptions, Ecommerce

Biz Dev

Quelle: McClure, Dave (2007) Startup Metrics for Pirates.

Beispiel

Stage Conversion Status Conv. % Est. Value

Acquisition Visitors on Site/Widget/Landing Page (2+ pages, 10+ sec, 1+ clicks = don‘t abandon)

60% $ 0.05

Activation „Happy“ 1st visit; Usage/Signup (clicks/time/pages, email/profile reg, feature usage)

15% $ 0.25

Retention Users come back; Multiple visits (1-3x visits/mo; email/feed, open rate/CTR)

5% $ 1

Referral Users refer others (cust sat >= 8, viral g factor > 1 1% $ 5

Revenue User pay; Generate $$$ (first rev, break-even, target profitability)

1% $ 50

Quelle: McClure, Dave (2007) Startup Metrics for Pirates.

EXPERIMENT QUEUE

Lean Dashboard | Ash Maurya

Quelle: Maurya, Ash (2012): Running Lean: Iterate from Plan A to a Plan That Works. Sebastopol/CA 2012

SUCCESS METRICS CURRENT METRICS

EXPERIMENTS

PROBLEM/SOLUTION FIT PRODUCT/MARKET FIT SCALE

KEY OBJECTIVE ACTIVE EXPERIMENTS COMPLETED EXPERIMENTS

BUILD MEASURE LEARN

AARRR KEY METRICS REVENUE STREAMS

EXPERIMENT REPORT

EXPERIMENT QUEUE

Lean Dashboard | Ash Maurya

Quelle: Maurya, Ash (2012): Running Lean: Iterate from Plan A to a Plan That Works. Sebastopol/CA 2012

SUCCESS METRICS CURRENT METRICS

EXPERIMENTS

PROBLEM/SOLUTION FIT PRODUCT/MARKET FIT SCALE

KEY OBJECTIVE ACTIVE EXPERIMENTS COMPLETED EXPERIMENTS

BUILD MEASURE LEARN

20 Customers

200 Customers

2,000 Customers

8 weeks from now

1.5 years from now

3 years from now

Acquisition Activation

Revenue Retention

Referral 1,000 100%

800 80%

400 50%

200 50%

200 25%

$ 20,000 MRR

Oct 1

1-Page SaaS Metrics will resonate strongly

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Till Kubelke und Daniel Hanelt im Gespräch Absolventen der Hochschule und Entrepreneure seit der Uni

Vielen Dank.

Prozess Startup Analyse

Product

Strategy

Vision

Why

How What

Quelle: Ries, Eric (2011): The Lean Startup. New York 2011; Sinek, Simon (2009): Start With Why: How Great Leaders Inspire Everyone to Take Action

Lean Stack

Quelle: Maurya, Ash (2012): Running Lean: Iterate from Plan A to a Plan That Works. Sebastopol/CA 2012

1 Lean Canvas

2 Lean Dashboard

3 Experiment Report

Why

How

What