The Future of Japan - and Our World

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

The Future of Japan

The Future of Our World

Guy Dauncey

The power of our visionビジョンの力

The power of our vision

そんなに強くなる必要があります

than the power of our fears私たちの恐怖の電力より

The power of our vision

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

When you THINK about

what do you FEEL?

EXCITEMENT

UNCERTAINTY

What is your vision of the future?

Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

What is ourREALITY?

実在

We have come a long way from this….

To this …

but…

Smithore Dreamstime.com

We have also come to this…

Live Rainforest

Dead Rainforest

What went wrong?

How did this…

Domestic

Product

国内総生産

turn into this? …

Depletionof the

Planet

惑星のグロス枯渇

Do you think there are too many people

on the Earth?

YES NO ?

Do you think we consume too much?

YES NO ?

消費する

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

地球規模の気候変動

How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps

1. Earth has a very thin atmosphere, which protects us from being

roasted by day and frozen by night.

30 kilometres

2. Two important “greenhouse gases” trap heat in the atmosphere

and keep us warm: water vapor and

carbon dioxide

3. When there is too little water vapor and carbon dioxide, Earth goes into an Ice Age.

When there is too much, Earth warms, ice melts, and sea levels rise.

ICE AGES

4. Carbon dioxide (blue) and temperature (red) have tracked each other very closely over the last 700,000 years.

5. The gasoline that fuels the world’s transportation comes from ancient fossil carbon.

6. The coal that generates much of the world’s electricity comes from ancient fossil carbon.

85% of all this energy comes from fossil fuelsGuy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

As we burn the fossil fuels…

7. When we burn fossil fuels, their ancient carbon escapes into the atmosphere

8. When we burn forests, their carbon escapes, entering the atmosphere.

When we destroy forests, their carbon also escapes, entering the atmosphere.

9. All this extra carbon is trapping too much heat, and causing

global warming.

Burning fossil fuels anddestroying Earth’s forests

The last time the world was 3C warmer, the sea level was 25 metres higher

2 metres

10 metres

18 metres

25 metres

If all Earth’s polar ice melted 70 metres sea-level rise

92 metres

70 metres

All of Japan’s nuclear plants are at sea level

Torrential downpoursand floods

If we don’t change,33% of the Earth will be affected

by extreme drought by 2100

California Wildfire, August 2015

British Columbia Forest FireJuly 2015

If global warming exceeds 1.6°C up to

31% of Earth’s species

will be committed to extinction,

having nowhere to go to escape the rising heat

Do you sometimes feel that it’s all getting

out of control?

So what shall we do?

BCSEA 2014 BCSEA 2014 www.bcsea.org www.bcsea.org

Two Possible Futures

The Ocean海洋

Boyan Slat

William KakwambaMalawi, Africa

エネルギー問題

JAPAN’SENERGY PROBLEM

Coal 21%

Oil 46%

Gas 15%

Nuclear 15%

= 1,000 Terawatt hours

a year

Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%

97% of all Japan’senergy

is imported

Uranium 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%

USA 75%France 11%Britain 10%

Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%

Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%

Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%

Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%

Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com/files/japangreenpath

www.earthfuture.com/files/japangreenpath/green_path_japanese.pdf

How serious 切実

is Japan’s Energy Problem?

How serious 切実

1. Very serious

How serious 切実

1. Very serious2. I don’t know

How serious 切実

1. Very serious2. I don’t know3. Not serious

JAPAN’S ENERGY

SOLUTIONS解答

We need…

A 100% Shift to Renewable

Energy

Martinedegraaf Dreamstime.com

How much energy does Japan need?

1,000 terawatt hours a year

千テラワット時間今年

Where will Japan’s Green Electricity

come from?

Efficient Appliances

100 100100 watts

25 watts

5 watts

LED lights only use

1 to 5 watts

How much energy can Japan SAVE?

200 to 500 terawatt hours a year

SOLAR ENERGY

More solar energy reaches Earth in an hour than humans use in a year.

Solar energy travels at the speed of light 1,000 million kilometres an hour

Sun to Earth in 8 minutes 19 seconds

For 30,000 years, we harvested the Sun’s energy through firewood

For 300 years, we have been harvestingThe Sun’s energy through fossil fuels

It was fossil fuelsthat launched the Industrial Age,

and the modern world.

It is solar energy expressed through fossil fuels

that has made advanced engineering, solar PV and electric vehicles possible.

The Sun is rapidly settingon the Age of Fossil Fuels.

The Age of Fossil Fuels has been the essential

LAUNCH RAMPfor the Solar Age

500,000 yearsFirewood

300 yearsFossil Fuels

A billion yearsSolar Energy

Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com

A billion years

The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

And with every passing year, solar technology will improve

and fall in price.

Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com

A billion years

The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years

Solar radiation

Solar-powered homesYoshikawa, near Tokyo

Ota Solar City, Japan

Solar Stadium, Taiwan

Kagoshima Nanatsujima 70 MW Solar, Japan

Solar RailwayParis

to Amsterdam

Price of Solar Cells1977: $761981: $241991: $92001: $62011: $1.252013: $0.74

Mass production = falling prices

Solar Economics in Japan, 20204 kW PV¥3 kwh

Cost per kW $1,600 4 kW $6,400 ¥700,000

25 year savings $38,50025 year profit $32,000 ¥3,000,000

Thin film solar薄膜太陽電池

Thin film solar

How much SOLAR energy could Japan produce?

Geothermal Energy

Geothermal Energy: 13% growth pa2-12 cents kWh39 countries could get 100% power = 17% of the world’s people

Geothermal Power in Iceland

Geothermal powerNesjavellir Geothermal Plant, Iceland

How much GEOTHERMAL energy could Japan produce?

Hatchobaru Geothermal Power Plant, Kokonoe, Oita

Wind Energy

Siemens AG

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Kamisu Wind Farm, Ibaraki, Japan

Wind Power in Japan

How much WIND energy could Japan produce?

570 to 5,000 terawatt hours a year

How much HYDRO ENERGY

could Japan produce?

79 - 140 terawatt hours a year

South Korea’s 1 MW Jindo Uldolmok tidal power plant

How much TIDAL ENERGY

could Japan produce?

20-70 terawatt

hours a year

The Price (cents/kwh)

1990 2015 2020Wind 30 6-8 5

Solar 100 15-20 10-15

THE RESULTJapan needs 1,000 TWh a year

Low HighEfficiency 200 500Solar 72 300Geothermal 30 500

Wind 570 5000Hydro 79 140 Tidal 20 70

TOTAL 971 6510

HOW SOON

Do you think it will bepossible for Japan to stop

burning fossil fuels化石燃料

to make electricity?By 2030? By 2050? By 2080?

TRANSPORTATION輸送

SOLUTIONS解答

Mother Oil

Copenhagen, Denmark41% of all people go to work by bike.

Electric Bicycle

The Copenhagen Wheel

Solar electric bike, top speed 48 km/hr

Solar Bike Lane, Holland

Cycling on the Solar Bike Lane

Moto Electra World Record Across US in 3 Days

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Brutus Electric Motorbike 345 km range

Electric train, running on green electricity

= no climate impact

Japan’s Magnetic Levitation Train

World Train Speed Record603 km/hour

Electric bus, running on green electricity = no climate impact

On-Line Electric VehicleSouth Korea

Hamurun Community Electric Bus, Tokyo

Smart Electric – 135 km range

Toyota RAV4 EV148 km range

Mitsubishi - 300 km range

Tesla Roadster 393 km range

STELLA – SOLAR ELECTRIC

Made by students at Eindhoven University, Holland

Family size, 4-seats

Range: 400 km no sun, 600 km full sun

Honda solar electric car charging

Electric car fast charging

Future Boing Liquid Hydrogen Plane

Four people in Toronto

Five people in Paris

HOW SOON

Do you think it will bepossible for Japan stop

burning fossil fuels化石燃料

for transportation?By 2030? By 2050? By 2080?

BUILDINGSOLUTIONS

We can live and work in green buildings

Is this your dream home of the future?Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

Or this?Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

This…

Or this?

This …

Or this?

Heating 加熱 without Fossil Fuels

Solar Heating from the Air

Ground Source Heat2 million installations in 30 countries

$20,000 to $30,000

Water Source Heat

Solar Heat

Solar hot wateron a restaurant in

Sweden

Photo by Hamilton Hazlehurst/Vulcan

Rizhao, China

Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta

Year-Round Solar Heating

Okotoks, Alberta – Solar Heating

Energy Centre

Community solar heat panels

Solar hot waterpanels

800 solar hot water panels on the garages90% of residential space heating (40-50o C)

Reduction - 5 tonnes of GHGs per home per year.

No groundwater intrusion, so the heat accumulates over the summer.

SOLAR THERMAL STORAGE

100% solar heated house, Emmental, Switzerlandwww.jenni.ch

Austria

ACROS Fukuoka building 35,000 plants, 76 species

Madrid, Spain

GangnamSeoul

OUR PAST 過去

AND FUTURE未来

We have been developing intelligencefor millions of years

Our technology is our

cumulative 累積の

cumulative 累積のshared シェアー

ドintelligence 知性

Where are we going?

We have made our full evolutionary

journeyover 14 billion years

We have made our recent

human journey over five million years

There will be

a billion years

before the Sun runs out of fueland begins to die

A billion years10億年

We are here

過去Future

将来

Firewood1.5 million years

CumulativeIntelligence

The Carbon Years…

The Carbon Years could be the launch-ramp…

Firewood1.5 million years

Fossil Fuels200 years

The Carbon Years could bethe launch-ramp for the solar years

Firewood Solar1.5 million years

Fossil Solar200 years

True Solar1 billion years

THE CLIMATE EMERGENCYIS VERY REAL

What is stopping us from making faster progress?

1. Laziness 休怠 and apathy 無関心

1. Laziness 休怠 and apathy 無関心2. Political corruption 政治腐敗

1. Laziness 休怠 and apathy 無関心2. Political corruption 政治腐敗3. Ignorance 不知

1. Laziness 休怠 and apathy 無関心2. Political corruption 政治腐敗3. Ignorance 不知 4. Confusion 錯乱 and no leadership 指導

FINALTHOUGHTS最終的な考え

A Thousand Possibilities

千の可能性

What will you do with your life?

We Day, Canada www.weday.com

It’s Our World – Let’s Change ItGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

www.metowe.comGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

変化を起こします

By Nattanicha Kongsathitporn, age 14, Thailand

We need to roll up the past.

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com By Iskren Rumenov Petrov, age 14, from Bulgaria

We need to sail away from our old, polluting waysand build a green, sustainable world.

This is about you, your children,and your future.

決意

Number of stars in the Universe

1024: 1 trillion trillion

The Universe has taken

14 billion years

to create us

Number of atoms in your

1027: 1000 trillion trillion

All self-organized into one amazing

Every atom in your body was either made in the Big Bangor in a later Supernova explosion

Number of stars in our galaxy

100 trillion

Number of synapses in your brain

100 trillion

All self-organized into one amazing whole

100 trillion synapses 100 trillion stars

We are all conscious

我々はすべての意識しています

We have free will私たちは自由意志を持っています

We can make a difference我々は違いを作ることができます

It’s Our World – Let’s Change ItGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

This is about us, our planet,and our future.

Our Home

When you THINK about

what do you FEEL?

EXCITEMENT

UNCERTAINTY

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c

www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey

Guy Dauncey

www.earthfuture.com

The Future of Japan - and Our World

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