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The Future of Higher Education: A Survival Guide

Roger CaldwellArizona Women in Higher Education

Conference, October 27, 2006

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Today’s Roadmap

What does the future look like?GloballyHigher EducationAre trends for women different?

Some discussion with youA survival guide

Anticipating the futureDealing with uncertainty and change

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7 Trends Changing the World

Global – more interdependencyDemographic – big and fundamental changesFinancial – harder to get, more debtTechnological – continuing rapid changeEducation – multiple approachesResources – energy, water, climateInfrastructure – the glue that hold it together

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Snapshot of Arizona PeopleAZ High school graduates growth rate was highest 1998-2003 and is highest projected 2003-2015AZ population growth rate second behind NevadaFastest growing population segment is Hispanic, 29%Slightly more >65 (12.6% vs 12.1%) than U.S.Slightly more <5 (7.9% vs 7%) than U.S. Slightly less female (50.2% vs 52.0%) than U.S.State of greatest migration: California is >halfArizona (and U.S) can be thought of as partly developed and partly developing “countries”(good on some factors poor on others)

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Impact of World Population Growth

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Arizona Age Distribution(from Arizona’s Economy – UA)

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Arizona Population 2000 and 2030(U.S. Census)

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Increasing High School Graduates (in Arizona)

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Non-population Challenges for Higher Education

Constrained budget times – more competition for fewer fundsIncoming students are technologically competent for e-learning and have certain expectations – anyplace becomes a learning spaceCurricular reform – streamline, innovate, partnerIncreased roles (community/state problem solver)

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Implications of a Changing World

World demographic trends will cause big changesPopulation ratio of developing to developed countriesAging of much of developed worldRich and poor gap, haves and have nots

Higher Education will change tooMore diversity (ethnicity, culture)Educational assistance increases (aid, mentoring)Role in society – depends on type of university Women as majority in most disciplines, most universities, and most degrees levels.

New technologies will change learning

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Continuing Studies on Arizona Higher Education Keeps the Future Unclear

ABORChanging Directions Initiative, 2002Arizona Universities Redesign Study, 2004Enterprise Model, 2006

ABOR Collaborative EffortsArizona Universities NetworkPhoenix Biomedical Campus (ASU, UA)

Legislature – 4-year community collegesLots of other studies - state and national

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Women in Higher Education

Some Trends

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Share of Bachelor Degrees to Males 1870-2002 (from Postsecondary Education Opportunity)

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Share of Bachelor s Degrees by Type of University (Males), 1970-2002 (from Postsecondary Education Opportunity)

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Share of Bachelor Degrees by Ethnicity (Males), 1977-2002 (from Postsecondary Education Opportunity)

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Share of Degrees to Males by Degree Level, 1960-2002 (from Postsecondary Education Opportunity)

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Degrees by Gender(from Postsecondary Education Opportunity)

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UA Colleges, Percent Women, Undergrad and Grad, Fall 2006

Nursing 88.2 90.1 Public Health 75.0 73.5Education 77.6 72.3Humanities 61.9 62.9Pharmacy 61.2Social Behav 58.0 60.9Architecture 40.1 55.1Fine Arts 58.3 56.5

Medicine 59.2Agric & Life Sci 71.9 55.0Law 49.4Business 37.5 45.0Science 47.2 42.8Engineering 19.0 25.5Optical Sci 17.7Overall 52.5 52.6

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Issues: Women in Higher Education 1

Recruitment and Retention are linked – hiring people that are different than current majority requires addressing barriers and nurturing for success. Faculty service committees are burdensome when addressing for diversity, especially for minority women

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Issues: Women in Higher Education 2

Negotiating skills differ by gender and styleKey departmental decisions, in some cases, may be made by older males with older values systems, who are unaware of today’s management principles

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Issues: Women in Higher Education 3

Some change raised by women are now used by men:

Flex time, or tenure clock delaysToday’s management style is moving more to listen, collaborate, decide, act (role model?)

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Your turn. . .

Get your 3x5 cards ready

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Identify the most important FUTURE women’s issues

Take the 3x5 card, and on one side write 1-3 issues that you think will be important to women faculty or staff in the next 5-10 years.We will discuss a few examples and save the card to hand in later.

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Identify the Implications of these Implications future Women’s Issues

Take the 3x5 card, and on the other side write 1-3 of the most important implications for issues we just discussedWe will take a few examples, and save the card to hand in (pass to the aisles).

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Survival Guide - Contents

Views on the FutureChange

Final Thoughts

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Guide: Future Overview

Understand the future will be more uncertain and complexMany things will remain the same, some will be very differentKeeping your “radar” on while going about daily activities picks up useful information

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Guide: Five Suggestions

Attitude – your mindset and approach is key; make respect your primary valueContext – understand relationshipsConsistency – not static but still consistentTransparency and communication – be honest and communicate oftenKeep relevant culture and traditions when appropriate

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Guide: Practice Thinking About the Future - Examples

How will the character of your institution change if Arizona population doubles in 25 years (that is current estimate)?Funding will become more competitive, how will this impact the focus of your institution?How would you answer the question “What will your institution do differently in 10 years?”How will answering these questions change your discussions with colleagues?

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Guide: Dealing with Change

Unpleasant when confusing or negative impact; Pleasant when understood clearly and funTransitions take time – like a supertanker turningRemover barriers and use appropriate incentives and disincentives for fast changeDeal with change in a positive mannerSee change codes: http://cals.arizona.edu/dean/planning/

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Guide: Final Thoughts

Living with the today’s VUCA world

VolatileUncertainComplexAmbiguous

Using a FAIR approach to managing

FlexibleAgileInnovativeResponsive