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Social Inequality and Mobility in Hong Kong:
Findings from A Benchmark Survey, 2007
Xiaogang WU(吴晓刚 )
Associate Professor Social Science Division
Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
Nov 6, 2009
1. Background of Research on Inequality Rising inequality has been a pressing issue faced by
many countries in recent decades. It is economic, social, and political issue that deserves research from all major social science disciplines.
Sociological research on inequality considers hierarchical social structures that rank people with respect to access to certain resources, and how such structure/pattern varies in different context.
Research on class inequality and mobility: WHO GETS WHAT, AND WHY?
Occupation is an important basis of social stratification, through which majority of us earn income.
Social Science and The Public Policy Theory-based and empirically-tested models of
inequality that can assist not only in understanding ongoing changes in inequality but also in evaluating public policy and social interventions.
Basis: the collection and empirical analysis of population-based sample data .
The case of Hong Kong: two contrasting images.
Historical Trends 1981-2006: Government Statistics
Change of GDP per Capita & Gini Coefficient from 1981 to 2006 in Hong Kong
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
1 2 3 4 5 6Year
GD
P P
er C
apita
0.4
0.44
0.48
0.52
0.56
Gin
i Coe
ffic
ient
GDP Per Capita Gini Coefficient
Economic Development and Income Inequality in Hong
Kong, 1981-2006
Year GDP Per Capita (at current market price HK $)*
Gini Coefficient
1981 33369 0.451
1986 57784 0.453
1991 120015 0.476
1996 191047 0.518
2001 193500 0.525
2006 215158 0.535
Comparative Income Inequality: the Case of Hong Kong
Slovenia
Spain
Slovak
Canada
Italy
AustraliaUK
Netherlands
Finland
Hong Kong
France
GermanyBelgium
Denmark
Austria
US
SwedenNorway
Switzerland
Japan
Ethiopia
Burundi
MaliNiger
Mozambique
Nepal
Tajikistan
Burkina FasoLesotho
Sierra Leone
Madagascar
Kyrgyz
Cambodia
Uganda
Rwanda
Azerbaijan
Zambia
Bangladesh
LaoVietnam
Kenya
Yemen
Ctrl African
Ghana
IndiaMauritania
Guinea
Armenia
Pakistan
Mongolia
Senegal
Korea
GeorgiaIsrael
Zimbabwe
Uzbekistan
Ukraine
Turkmenistan
Nigeria
Indonesia
Cameroon
Sri Lanka
Nicaragua
China
Cote d'Ivoire
Honduras
Bolivia
P. N. Guinea
Egypt
Philippines
Bulgaria
Morocco
Kazakhstan
Belarus
AlgeriaJordan
Paraguay
Guatemala
Ecuador
Russian
Romania
Thailand
El Salvador
TunisiaTurkey
Lithuania
Peru
Colombia
Dominican
Latvia
Uruguay
Jamaica
Panama
S. Africa
Costa Rica
Estonia
Venezuela
Poland
Mexico
Hungary
Malaysia
Brazil
Croatia
Chile
Czech
Greece
IrelandPortugal
.2.3
.4.5
.6G
ini C
oe
ffic
ien
t
0 10000 20000 30000 40000GDP Per Capita (US$)
2. Hong Kong’s Inequality in Policy Debate Inequality has become a political issue (high Gini
coefficient is often cited as evidence). The government set up a new Commission on
Poverty in 2005 to tackle the problems related to poverty, among which inter-generational transfer of poverty was listed on the top of the Commission’s policy.
Stagnant social mobility and the emergence of M-shape society.
Social Mobility
Some argued that in the context of economic recession and industrial restructuring, Hong Kong is increasingly polarized, fitting the scenario of the M-shaped societies.
Others contended that little statistical evidence suggests such an ongoing trend, namely, ordinary people’s living standards are on the decline and social mobility is blocked.
The Chief Executive’s Policy Address 2009
Temporal Trends in Social Mobility
Intergenerational or intergenerational mobility;
How structural change shapes opportunities;
The role of educational expansion in affecting the pattern of social mobility.
Evidence from the Census and By-census Data, 1981-2006.
Industrial Restructuring
Industry composition change from 1981 to 2006 in Hong Kong
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006Year
Manufacture Construction
Wholesale/retail/trade Transport/communication
Finance/real estate Community/social service
Occupational Change
Occupation Change from 1981 to 2006 in Hong Kong
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006Year
Managers Professional
Associate professional Clerk Service/sales Craft worker
Machine operator/assembler Elementary occupation
Educational Expansion
Overall Education Change in Hong Kong
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006Year
Primary or below Lower secondary Upper secondary
Non-degree Degree or above
3. Social Inequality and Social Mobility: a Benchmark Survey
Public policy research: data as the basis, and methodology as the arbitrator.
Funded by the CPU Public Policy Research Fund (1st). Large sample size (N=4013) Representative: a 2-stage stratified replicated sampling design
for the survey. To make the data representative of the general population, a weight is created based on the official statistics in terms of sex, age, education, and household size from the 2006 Hong Kong by-census data
Comprehensive: covers various topics related to social stratification and mobility, both objective and subjective ones.
Benchmark to monitor changes.
Occupation Occupation: Narrative descriptions of the job for respondent at different
time, the respondent’s father, have been coded to 3-digit ISCO88 occupation categories. 9 categories collapsed into 6 in analysis
Census categories Monthly earnings
Mean years of schooling
Manager/professional 1 managers/administrator 2. Professional
27951 15.8
Associate professional 3. Associate Professional 19709 14.2 Clerk 4. Clerks 12240 12.9 Service worker 5. Service Workers and Shop
Sales Workers 11139 11.0
Skilled worker 6. Skilled Agricultural and Fishery Workers 7. Craft and Related workers
11187 9.6
Unskilled worker 8. Plant and Machine Operators and Assembler 9. Elementary Occupation
7765 8.5
Inter-generational and Intra-generational Mobility Father’s Occupation
Intergenerational I II III IV V VI Total I. Manager/professional
36.54 14.18 21.17 13.63 14.39 15.34 18.64
II. Associate professional
14.78 24.15 13.41 10.20 13.40 8.33 12.70
III. Clerk 25.91 28.49 38.65 33.73 24.32 25.23 26.83 IV. Service worker 12.31 17.54 13.90 24.15 16.46 18.30 16.94 V. Skilled worker 6.04 11.78 5.19 9.72 17.65 19.19 14.14 VI Unskilled worker 4.42 3.86 7.68 8.57 13.78 13.61 10.75 Total 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 Intra-generational First Occupation I. Manager/professional
89.01 16.96 10.14 8.83 7.11 3.71 19.66
II. Associate professional
4.21 69.26 7.95 7.09 7.39 5.87 12.58
III. Clerk 2.07 7.24 67.13 13.87 4.38 10.45 25.47 IV. Service worker 3.32 4.67 9.96 54.54 11.80 12.32 17.82 V. Skilled worker 0.60 0.76 2.72 8.61 49.02 20.08 14.02 VI Unskilled worker 0.78 1.10 2.10 7.06 20.31 47.57 10.45 Total 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
Trends in Occupational Mobility in Hong Kong, by Birth Cohort
Overall 1946-1955 1956-1965 1966-1975 1976-1989 Current Occupation Manager/professional 19.28 17.85 20.56 21.74 16.02 Associate professional 12.56 10.87 12.01 11.89 14.42 Clerk 25.21 10.41 17.46 26.77 36.41 Service worker 17.67 14.19 16.60 17.63 20.02 Skilled worker 14.30 21.12 20.37 12.43 8.00 Unskilled worker 10.99 25.55 13.01 9.53 5.12 Father’s Occupation Manager/professional 17.06 18.59 15.89 14.89 19.77 Associate professional 4.74 2.33 4.42 4.70 5.86 Clerk 5.35 2.73 4.18 6.13 6.48 Service worker 11.49 9.52 10.27 12.35 12.38 Skilled worker 40.13 45.98 42.36 39.82 36.51 Unskilled worker 21.23 20.85 22.88 22.11 19.00 Total mobility rate 0.78 0.72 0.73 0.78 0.83 First Occupation Manager/professional 13.09 13.68 12.22 13.13 13.63 Associate professional 9.11 7.16 7.86 8.95 11.15 Clerk 29.88 15.60 22.34 33.97 37.96 Service worker 19.38 12.43 16.40 20.76 23.30 Skilled worker 19.55 35.09 31.81 15.20 6.90 Unskilled worker 9.00 16.05 9.36 7.99 7.06 Total mobility rate 0.38 0.45 0.42 0.40 0.28
Mobility Rates by Cohort
mobility rate change for intra-generational & inter-generational
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1946-1955 1956-1965 1966-1975 1976-1989
Year
mo
bili
ty r
ate
inter-generational intra-generational
Educational Expansion by Cohort
Overall 1946-1955 1956-1965 1966-1975 1976-1989
Education: Primary 7.80 24.97 13.47 3.53 0.53 Lower secondary 11.76 20.02 16.50 11.70 4.27 Upper secondary 28.72 28.03 27.84 31.93 26.40 Non-degree 20.73 12.60 16.22 23.37 25.24 Degree 30.99 14.38 25.98 29.46 43.56
Implication for occupational structure
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1946-1955 1956-1965 1966-1975 1976-1989
Manager/professional Associate professional Clerk
Mobility into Managerial/Professional, Associate Professionals, Clerks
Mobility into Service, Skilled and Unskilled Workers
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1946-1955 1956-1965 1966-1975 1976-1989
Service worker Skilled worker Unskilled worker
4. Becoming Middle Class
Operational definition: managers/professional, and associate professional (yes=1).
Independent variables: education (secondary or below, tertiary non-degree, and
tertiary degree) Cohort (1946-1955 1956-1965 1966-1975 1976-1989) Sex (male=1) Immigrant (whether born in HK) Living in public housing at age 14 (yes=1).
Logit Models Predicting the Likelihood of Attainment of Middle-Class in Hong Kong
Model 1 Model 2 Education [secondary below omitted] Non-degree tertiary 1.32 ***
(0.14) 1.97 ***
(0.35) Degree or above tertiary 2.84 ***
(0.14) 3.43 ***
(0.49) Male 0.35 **
(0.11) 0.35 **
(0.11) Immigrant -0.24
(0.13) -0.23 (0.14)
Living in Public housing at age 14 -0.23 * (0.12)
-0.24 * (0.12)
Cohort [1946-1955 omitted] 1956-1965 -0.16
(0.17) 0.00
(0.23) 1966-1975 -0.29
(0.18) -0.04 (0.25)
1976-1989 -0.90 *** (0.19)
-0.22 (0.30)
Interaction 1956-1965*non-degree tertiary - -0.59
(0.43) 1956-1965* degree tertiary - -0.82
(0.43) 1966-1975*non-degree tertiary - -1.18 *
(0.47) 1966-1975*degree tertiary - -0.50
(0.55) 1976-1989*non-degree tertiary - -0.56 *
(0.55) 1976-1989*degree tertiary - -1.20 *
(0.56) Constant -1.93 ***
(0.18) -2.13 ***
(0.21)
Findings The importance of education in becoming middle class; Younger cohort (1976-1989) has significantly less chance
of mobility into middle class; Men are more likely than women to become middle class Those from poor family background (living in public
housing at age 14) are less likely to move into middle class, even net of education.
Interaction terms suggest that young cohorts who received tertiary education had less chance to become middle class than their older counterparts.
Summary and Conclusions Economic transformation/restructuring has led to a
decline in job opportunities in manufacturing sector, and skilled and unskilled workers, and the growth in service/sales jobs.
The expansion of tertiary education but limited professional/managerial jobs has led to the inflation of clerk jobs, many of which are filled by tertiary school graduates, who would be almost guaranteed professional and managerial jobs in the past years.
In other words, tertiary graduates are increasingly less likely to make into managerial/professional and associate professional jobs.
Living in public housing at age 14, and immigrant status also affect the chance of becoming middle class.
Summary and Conclusions
Despite the fact said above, there is a very high rate of intergenerational mobility in HK, including both upward and downward mobility;
The rate of intra-generational mobility across occupational class has been very limited in Hong Kong, particularly for the youngest cohort, though it is may be due to the life course effect (it takes some time).
High inequality may coexist with high mobility. While education serves as an important avenue for an
individual’s upward social mobility, it provides little help to address the overall inequality at the society level.
Hong Kong Panel Study of Social Dynamics(HK-PSSD, 2009-2014)
香港社会动态追踪调查
Strategic Public Policy Research
Vision Building an important infra-structure for social
science research in Hong Kong.
Facilitating comparative study of Chinese societies (Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Mainland [or selected regions, Shanghai, Beijing, Guangdong]).
Training next generation of survey/quantitative social scientists in the region of Great China;
Mission To establish the first-ever household panel for data
collection at both household and individual levels in Hong Kong.
To track socioeconomic changes and their impact on people’s life, and provide an empirical basis for public policy formation to address social problems in Hong Kong.
a long-time project: 2-wave surveys within the first-five years (2009-2014); will seek funding beyond 2014.
Public Policy Implication Panel data are particularly useful in identifying
causes of social problems for policy intervention. The first panel data collection of this kind (PSID since 1968 housed at Michigan) was indeed originated from U.S. War on Poverty in 1960s.
HK-PSSD is population-based representative survey, including but not being limited to topics on poverty/inequality and families in Hong Kong.
The panel data will become a comprehensive vehicle for many economic and social research related to public policy in Hong Kong.
Topics for Policy Analysis Income and poverty dynamics; Intergenerational studies; Socioeconomic inequality; Child development; Fertility, marriage and migration; Family and subjective wellbeing; Retirement and aging. And among others.
Thank You!
Center for Applied Social and Economic Research (CASER), Hong Kong Univ of Science & Technology
For Inquiry: 23585875 hk-pssd@ust.hk