PortugalThe First Carbon Neutral Economy (by 2030)

André Marquet, April 2009 (andre.marquet@gmail.com)

There are several proponents of carbonless economies

In Hot, Flat and Crowded, T. Friedman proposes a bold inter-generational challenge to have the US to lead an agenda to fight global warming.

• But critics say:– Global warming is irreversible so don’t waste

your energies… doom day is coming.– Even if global warming can be tackled,

Portugal is too small to make any difference.– Portugal can not do it alone…

First, the facts

• Portugal ranks in 68th place in top CO2 emissions per capita: each portuguese is responsible for 5,6 tons of CO2/ year.

• Portugal is actually well placed in the ranking, it is the best performer of Eurozone. The worst is Luxembourg with 24,9 tons of CO2/ year..

Qatar is in the 1st place of the ranking with 69 ton/ year!

The USA is 10th place of the ranking with 20 ton/ year!

CO2/ CH4 generation in 2010 in Portugal

Electricity Production

Industrial Processes

Cattle

Forest Fires; Accidental Processes

Transports fleet (cars, planes, boats)

Forest Fires

• Forests represent the greatest natural carbon sink in Portugal.

• At the same time, Forest fires are responsible for the release of 10 to 30% of the annual CO2 releases in Portugal.

Car fleet

All major car manufacturers are launching electric autos in 2009.

Toyota

Honda

Mitsubishi

Renault Nissan

…even US car makers!

Europe’s West Coast

remember?

THE PORTUGUESE ECONOMY IS ESSENCIALLY NON INDUSTRIALIZED.

First Reality

Nuclear Power

• France’s moto: “No coal, no oil, no choice”– Allows for 80% of electricity generation;– Represents 40% of total power consumption.

Nuclear Power in Europe

• The only countries that do not have nuclear power are:

– Ireland (considering construction);

– Portugal (no plans);– Greece (no plans);– Austria (no plans);– Estonia (joint

production with Lithuania);

– Latvia (joint production with Lithuania);

– Poland (construction due to begin in 2010);

– Italy (construction due to begin in 2010);

Thermal Efficiency

• Only the re-building of decrepit buildings is estimated to represent market of 17 bln Euros in Portugal.

• Putting these reconstructed buildings in the market, along with national construction contention strategies would allow for thousands of people, especially young couples to return to cities, living near to their working palces, thus reducing commuting costs and overall carbon footprint.

• TIP: Upgrade existing buildings to energetic efficiency conditions represents a global market estimated in several billion Euros, employing thousands of people and effectively rescuing the SME construction sector.

“Green New Deal”

• Fleet of cars would have to converted into electric/ hybrid cars. This can be achieved in 10-15 years - We need a “Portuguese Better Place.”

• Gas and electricty prices should start to incorporate CO2 emission costs at market price - gas taxes and others to support electric conversion.

• Consider A-L-L electricity generation power means that do not release CO2 into the atmosphere. Nuclear along others, should be on top of the table.

Benefits of CO2 Zero Economy

• Accelarate the entering of the Portugal into the “New Economy” in which prices of products and services are indexed to their carbon intensity.

• By converting the national fleet into electricity, Portugal would create the necessary incentives for Portuguese and International companies start investing into the development of mechanical engineering companies.

• By promoting offshore wind power, and substituting current coal and natural gas

• Re-open of Portuguese uranium mines in modern and safe conditions would create thousands of jobs.

Benefits (2)

• A small sized country like Portugal would benefict enourmously from a bold commitment to green policies.

• International reputation and recognition (benneficting from the fact that the country is already known as a leader in wind power and innovative alternative power schemes.)

• Direct GDP impact can be estimated at double digit % by 2030.

Action Plan• Promote an economic study by independent experts

to predict the impact of the de-carbonizing the Portuguese economy by 2030.

• Begin by the state owned buildings (schools, military facilities, government, etc) and convert them to eco-friendly buildings.

• Give construction vouchers to the population so they can reconvert existing private buildings into eco-friendly ones.

• Develop smart grids.• Develop smart highways (auto-piloted cars!)• Reconvert to electric based car-fleet.• Consider nuclear, offshore eolic and micro-generation mix

to substitute first coal, then gas electricity generation.

Why this can work

• Simply, because it has worked in the past. There are several success stories of industry and economic reconversions.

• During War World II, both capitalistic as soviet style economies were able to construct gigantic military industries in very short periods and re-convert them back to civilian purposes after the war, with enourmous added value, ex:

• Fridges factory becomes> Warplane factory that becomes> Civilian transport airplane industry.

• It didn’t happened in 20 years. It happened in 10!

Until the late 1970’s whale hunting was one the most

profitable businesses in the Azores (Portugal).

It has been reconverted to another, much more interesting (and sustainable):

Whale watching