JAPANEUFTA

Obstacles & Barriers to Free TradeJapan & EU Kenwin Maung

Waseda University

Special thanks to Dr. Albrecht Rothacher, Prof. Frederik Ponjaert & Pascal Lottaz

ThemeDEVELOPMENT INNOVATION

THIRD PILLAR80% COVERAGE

GDP 2.2% GROWTH

Why EU & Japan?

10%Japan’s

Perspective:

Total Trade of Japan{3rd}

22.9%Outward Japanese FDI

{2nd}

39.4%Inward FDI to Japan

{1st}

2013

3.2%Total Trade of EU

{7th in the world/ 2nd in Asia}

Why EU & Japan?

2012

EU’s Perspective:

0.6%Outward European

FDI1.3%

Inward FDI to EU

FTARd 1 Rd 2 Rd 3 Rd 4 Rd 5 Rd 6 Rd 7 Rd 8 Rd 9 Rd 10

Rd 11

Rd 12

Rd 13

Rd 14

Rd 15 Rd 16

EU-Korea Mar 07

Jul07

Sep 07

Oct 07

Nov 07

Jan08

May 08

Mar 09

Jul09

EU-Singapor

eMar 10

Jun10

Sep 10

Nov 10

Jan11

Mar 11

Jun11

Oct 11

Jan12

Mar12

Jul12

EU-Canada

Oct 09

Jan10

Apr 10

Jul10

Oct 10

Jan11

Apr 11

Jul11

Oct 11

Mar12

Apr12

Sep12

Oct13

EU-Japan Apr 13

Jun13

Oct 13

Jan14

Apr 14

Jul14

Oct 14

Dec 14

Feb 15

Apr15

Jul15 …

JPN-Vietnam

Jan 07

Mar 07

Jun07

Aug 07

Oct 07

Mar 08

Apr 08

Aug 08

Sep 08

JPN-Swiss Mar 07

May 07

Jul07

Oct 07

Dec 07

Feb 08

May 08

Jun08

Sep 08

JPN-India Jan 07

Apr 07

Jun07

Aug 07

Jan08

Apr 08

May 08

Jul08

Sep 08

Oct08

Jan09

Sep09

Apr10

Sep10

JPN-Australia

Apr 07

Aug 07

Oct 07

Feb 08

Apr 08

Jul08

Oct 08

Mar 09

Jul09

Nov09

Apr10

Jan11

Dec11

Feb12

Apr12

Jun12

JEUFTA in Perspective

Rhythm of recent European and Japanese FTA negotiations from Ponjaert (2015) updated for the progress on EU-Japan negotiations

FTA Priorities: ASEAN & South Korea

“Japan was almost absent in the Global Europe strategy”

(Shu, 2015)

Worsening Trade Deficits for Europe

Increased inflow of FDI from Japan

Combative Negotiations

Failed Trade Negotiations

Exogenous Prompts

Lost of Japanese

Momentum*

Rise of China

2011 Tohoku

Earthquake

Conclusion of EU-South Korea FTA in

2009

Although Japan may be eager “for a [trade] deal by the end of [2015]”, the EU believes that “if this deal is worth doing, it [is] worth doing right” and “if it takes a bit longer to create that good product”, both the EU and Japan “should take that time”

(Cecilia Malmström, May 2015)

Domestic Vested Interest

Low Political Salience

Disagreement over Values

Vested Interests …

30,000 LobbyistsCorporate

PressuresCarmakers, railway, processed foods

Incumbent partyTraditional

ConstituenciesAgriculture

Can ChangeEU-Japan centre for Industrial Cooperation

Japanese companies: Strong supporters of JEUFTA

Non-Tariff Barriers no longer a Taboo

Expectations Deficit

EXPECTATIONS CAPABILITIES

Expectation Deficit

Asian perception of the EU as too “distant and ineffectual”(Wong, 2012)

(Tsuruoka, 2008)

Low Political Salience

Human Resources

PolicyExpertise

Time

Socialisation mechanisms are lost(Ponjaert, 2015)

Can TPP help JEUFTA?

POSSIBLE CHALLENGING

No EU Values, No FTA?

Strategic Partnership Agreement (political agreement)

Human Rights, WMDs, Environment etc.

Horizontal Issue Linkage

Principled link Political link Legal link

Death Penalty Whaling

“Member States and the Commission [to], in all trade discussions with Japan, support and promote initiatives aimed at promoting human rights and

social and environmental standards””(EP resolution, 11 May 2011)

JAPANEUFTA

Low Political SalienceVested InterestDifferent Values

Thank you for listening

ReferencesAmnesty International. (2014). Death sentences and executions in 2013. Retrieved from https://www.amnesty.org/en/documents/act50/001/2014/en/

De Gucht, K. (2013, April 24). Answer given by Mr De Gucht on behalf of the commission. Retrieved from http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/questions/reponses_qe/2013/002859/P7_RE(2013)002859_EN.pdf Dobson, H., Gilson, J., Hook, G. D., Hughes, C. W. (2012). Japan’s international relations: Politics, economics and security. London: Routledge. EU-Japan Centre for Industrial Cooperation. (2011, October 18). A personal view on the future of EU-Japan trade relations with prof. Vital Moreira MEP, chairman of the european parliament’s international trade committee. Retrieved from http://www.eu-japan.eu/sites/eu-japan.eu/files/seminar_moreira_18102011_eu.pdf

European Commission. (n.d.). Trade policy with japan. Retrieved from http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/japan/

European Parliament. (2011, May 11). European parliament resolution of 11 May 2011 on EU-Japan trade relations. Retrieved from http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?type=TA&reference=P7-TA-2011-0225&language=EN

ReferencesEuropean Parliament. (2012, October 25). European parliament resolution of 25 October 2012 on EU trade negotiations with japan. Retrieved from http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?type=TA&language=EN&reference=P7-TA-2012-398

France, Italy win safeguard clause in EU-Japan trade pact. (2012, November, 30). EurActiv. Retrieved from http://www.euractiv.com/global-europe/france-italy-win-assurances-eu-j-news-516356

Hardy, M. (2013). Growing difficulties and the GATT procedure. In Keck, J., Vanoverbeke, D., & Waldenberger, F. (Eds), EU-Japan relations, 1970-2012: From confrontation to global partnership. London: Routledge.

Johnson, D. T. & Zimring, F. E. (2009). The next frontier: National development, political change, and the death penalty in asia. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.

Kleimann, D. (2015, June). Negotiating in the shadow of TTIP and TPP: The EU-Japan free trade agreement. Retrieved from http://www.gmfus.org/publications/negotiating-shadow

Malmström, C. (2015, May). EU-Japan FTA: Crafting an ambitious deal. Speech presented at the Keidanren. Retrieved from http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2015/may/tradoc_153488.pdf

ReferencesMinistry of Economy, Trade and Industry. (n.d.). Japan EU EPA. Retrieved from http://www.meti.go.jp/policy/trade_policy/epa/epa/eu/index.html

Ponjaert, F. (2015). The political and institutional significance of an EU-Japan trade and partnership agreement. In Bacon, P., Mayer, H., & Nakamura H. (Eds.), The european union and japan: A new chapter in civilian power cooperation? Surrey: Ashgate Publishing Limited.

Shu, M. (2015). Three balancing acts: The EU’s trade policy towards east asia. In Bacon, P., Mayer, H., & Nakamura H. (Eds.), The european union and japan: A new chapter in civilian power cooperation? Surrey: Ashgate Publishing Limited.

Traynor, I. (2014, May 8) 30,000 lobbyists and counting: Is brussels under corporate sway? The Guardian. Retrieved from http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/08/lobbyists-european-parliament-brussels-corporate

Tsuruoka, M. (2008). Expectations deficit in EU-Japan relations: Why the relationship cannot flourish. Current Politics and Economics of Asia, 17(1), 107-26.

Waldenberger F. (2013). Europe and japan from the common market to the european union. In Keck, J., Vanoverbeke, D., & Waldenberger, F. (Eds), EU-Japan relations, 1970-2012: From confrontation to global partnership. London: Routledge.

Wong, R. (2012). Still in deficit: Perceptions of the EU’s capabilities among foreign policy elites in singapore, indonesia and vietnam. EU External Affairs Review, 2, 34-45.