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1 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.
Eidgenössisches Departement des Innern EDIBundesamt für Meteorologie und Klimatologie MeteoSchweiz
Research Activities in the Climate Services at MeteoSwiss
Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
Christof AppenzellerMichael Begert, Paul Della-Marta, Christoph Frei, Heike Kunz, Mark Liniger, Simon
Scherrer, Andreas Weigel, Christian Wüthrich
www.meteoschweiz.admin.ch
3 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.
Neue Zürcher Zeitung, 10. August 2007Quelle: MeteoSchweiz
Climate Services products …..
4 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.
Eidgenössisches Departement des Innern EDIBundesamt für Meteorologie und Klimatologie MeteoSchweiz
TasksTasksClimate Services MeteoSwissClimate Services MeteoSwiss
To provide reliable weather and climate data and analyses productsTo provide reliable weather and climate data and analyses productsfor the public, government, politics and business, for the public, government, politics and business,
yesterday, today and tomorrow yesterday, today and tomorrow
5 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.
Thom
as Konzelm
ann
Claudine N
aguel
Christian Lukasczyk
Mark Liniger
Mischa C
roci-Maspoli
Gérard D
ecrouyF
rank Lumpert
Patrick B
ütler
Markus F
ischer
Walter E
ckert
Eliane Jenzer
Marc M
usa
Gergely R
igo
Daniel W
olf
Christa Z
imm
ermann
Martina C
aseri
Bruno D
ürr
Christoph F
rei
Sophie F
ukutome
Reto S
töckli
Andreas W
eigel
Paul D
ella-Marta
Reinhard S
chiemann
Michael B
egert
Thom
as Schlegel
Stephan B
ader
Christine F
üllemann
Peter Z
binden
Jacqueline Pilloud
Heike K
unz
Christof A
ppenzeller
KDdm KDds KDka KDki
Sandy U
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Deborah v G
eijtenbeek
Verena F
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Sim
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Christian W
üthrich
Philipp G
latt
6 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.
• Temperature (mean, min, max)• Precipitation• Sunshine duration• Air pressure (partly)
Project DigiHom Digitalisation and homogenisation of long term climate series in Switzerland
Swiss National Basic Climatological Network(Swiss NBCN)
Annual temperature of Basel 1755-2007
Begert et al., 2005 HOMOGENEOUS TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION SERIES OF SWITZERLAND FROM 1864 TO 2000, Int. J. Climatol. 25: 65–80Begert 2009, to appear.
7 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.
EU FP6 ENSEMBPLES WP 5.1:Development of a daily high-resolution gridded observational dataset for Europe
precipitation 1960-2004 Tmin 1960-2004
Contribution of MeteoSwiss: automated detectionprocedure for discontinuities in large data sets
number of inhomogeneities detected: 0(), 1(), 3(), 4(), undefined ()
Begert, M., E. Zenklusen, C. Häberli, C. Appenzeller, L. Klok, 2008, to appear in Met. Zeitschrift.
8 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.
Re-Analysis ERA40 & observationsExample Ozone over Arosa
Kunz, H., S. Scherrer, C. Appenzeller and M. Liniger, 2007: The evolution of ERA-40 surface temperatures and total ozone compared to observed Swiss time series, Meteorol. Z., DOI: 10.1127/0941-2948/2007/0183
Differences total ozone ERA-40 & homogenized observations over Arosa
9 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.
New long snow series in the Alpes
Digitising of new snow sum (and snow depth) series
Reconstruction of days with snow pack
via snow depth reconstruction (daily temperature/precipitation)
Sils Maria 1864 – 2005 (1798 m asl)
cm/y
rda
ys/y
r
Sils Maria 1864 – 2005 (1798 m asl)
new snow sum
days with snow pack (>1cm)
Davos 1999
Savognin 1990
Wüthrich C, et al., 2010: in preparation.Scherrer, S. C., C. Appenzeller, and M. Laternser, 2004: Trends in Swiss Alpine snow days: The role of local- and large-scale climate variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L13215, doi:10.1029/2004GL020255.
10 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.
Gridding in complex topographyCOST733 Weather classification
1929 Stations (AUT, CH, DL)
Heavy Precipitation event in the Alps August 2005
Frei, C, and C. Schär, 1998, A precipitation climatology of the Alps from high-resolution rain-gauge observations., Int. J. Climatol., 18, 873-900.Frei, C, et al, 2006: Starkniederschlagsereignis August 2005, Arbeitsbericht MeteoSchweiz Nr. 211, ISSN: 1422-1381
Christop Frei and Reinhard Schieman
11 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.
www.meteoswiss.ch climate seasonal outlook
Monthly/seasonal climate outlooks
12 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.
MeteoSwiss research within National Centre for Competence in Research – Climate
NCCR I at MetCH: 2001-05 NCCR II at MetCH: 2005-09
See www.meteoswiss.ch Research Projects NCCR-Climate II
14 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.
Skill of today seasonal forecast system (ECMWF Sys 3) 2m temperature
Spring Summer
Autumn Winter
bad good1-1 0
RPSSd
Can discriminate in 55-60% of the cases
20 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.
Statistical post-processing
Muotathaler
Method 1: multi-model approach(ECMWF, UK MetOffice, Météo France)
Muotathaler
Weigel, A., M. Liniger and C. Appenzeller, 2008: Can multi-model combination really enhance prediction skill of ensemble forecasts ?, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 134: 241–260 (2008) DOI: 10.1002/qj.210Weigel, A., M. Liniger and C. Appenzeller, 2009: Seasonal ensemble forecasts: Are recalibrated single models better than multi-models?, in preparation.
Method 2: Climate conserving recalibration (inflation) of single models
27 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.
raw
Average RPSS
Recalibration versus multi-models
High predictability inflated multi
E: ECMWFU: UK Met OfficeC: Météo France
Example:1 month lead JJA 2m temperature forecasts
28 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.
raw
Average RPSS
Recalibration versus multi-models
Low predictability inflated multi
E: ECMWFU: UK Met OfficeC: Météo France
29 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.
Day 5-11 Day 12-18 Day 19-25 Day 26-32
Monthly forecasts
warmer than normal
cooler than normal
normal
VarEPS: 32-day EPS (calculated once per week)
30 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.10
-0.1
-0.2
Monthly temperature forecast skill
Day 5-11 Day 12-18
Results: annual mean RPSSD for week 1, 2, and 3 monthly forecast.
Day 19-25
…depends on region, season, lead-time
(Weigel et al. 2008a, MWR, accepted)
32 Research activities Climate Services & NCCR Christof Appenzeller et al.
Eidgenössisches Departement des Innern EDIBundesamt für Meteorologie und Klimatologie MeteoSchweiz
I wish you a nice stay in Zürich I wish you a nice stay in Zürich