Post on 10-Apr-2018
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2008Version
CH0: Future Web
Trends
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#2 2008 Artesisyves.masset@artesis.be
the thing aboutpredictions...
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#3 2008 Artesisyves.masset@artesis.be
"Computers in the future
may weigh no more than1.5 tons."
Popular Mechanics, forecasting therelentless march of science, 1949
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#4 2008 Artesisyves.masset@artesis.be
"I think there is a worldmarket for maybe five
computers."Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
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#5 2008 Artesisyves.masset@artesis.be
"640Kb ought to beenough for anybody."
Bill Gates, 1981 apocryphal
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#6 2008 Artesisyves.masset@artesis.be
"There is no reasonanyone would want a
computer in their home."Ken Olson, president, chairman and
founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977
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#7 2008 Artesisyves.masset@artesis.be
internetconnectivity
Dirt cheap, lightening fast & always on internet
Computers light, dumb terminals: need net connection to work
Most applications web-based for best efficiency
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#8 2008 Artesisyves.masset@artesis.be
all digital devices will beconnected & networked
From your car, radio, phone, fridge... always on
An unconnected digital device will be a strange thing
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#9 2008 Artesisyves.masset@artesis.be
rise of themobile internetRapid improvements in connectivity & screens
Mobile to be dominant platform for connecting to net worldwide
Japan: happened already (mostly surf web through phones)
Voice calls powered by internet & SMS/Texts -> IM
Cellphones electronic wallets & banks = main method of paymentCitizens vote for first time in elections via mobile phones?
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#10 2008 Artesisyves.masset@artesis.be
rise of individual& entrepreneurOpen source = unprecedented access to code & applications
Cheap to create business online & make own media
Teenager in basement same opp. as worker in big company
EXAMPLE: New mobile operating system (Android)?
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#11 2008 Artesisyves.masset@artesis.be
strides againstdigital divideDeveloping world joins digital ecosystem via mobile phones
Also become part of economy via cellphone wallet
Mobile phones cheap & broadband ubiquitous
Creates new areas of collaboration and education
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#12 2008 Artesisyves.masset@artesis.be
almost no privacyon the web
Your data will be out there
It will be ok because everyone will be in the same boat
Seeing already with soc. networking services like FB
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#14 2008 Artesisyves.masset@artesis.be
information pollution
& overloadNext big challenge is how to manage masses of information
People will complain about "digital fatigue & digital noise
Focus on developing filters & aggregators
Switch-off" holidays regularly prescribed by your doctor
Rise of anti-digital movements urging get back to basics
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#15 2008 Artesisyves.masset@artesis.be
more googles
& facebooksGoogle & Facebook finally get good competition
Microsoft releases OS code and goes open source
MS makes revenue by selling advertising & giving support
Advertising is main bus. model (connecting sellers & buyers)
Facebook becomes a virtual OS/desktop, with MS influence
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#16 2008 Artesisyves.masset@artesis.be
...and media?
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#17 2008 Artesisyves.masset@artesis.be
media distribution
& productionAll media eventually delivered via internet
Hardly any specialist print, tv, radio media companies left
All fully converged, broadcasting & publishing via the net
Media on many digital platforms
MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA
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#18 2008 Artesisyves.masset@artesis.be
fragmented media
environmentNon-media players become de facto media companies
Media world filled with new competitors
Cellphone operators, handset makers -> media companies
Vodacom stop aggregating, start producing own content
Operators alreadybig media companies (Voda: 1,4m users)Battle between media & cellphone companies looming
MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA
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#19 2008 Artesisyves.masset@artesis.be
now everyone is a
media playerBarrier to entry drops even more dramatically
Rise of the reader and the consumer
Readers: publishers, broadcasters: competitors & collaborators
Small, converged media challenge media conglomerates
MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA
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#20 2008 Artesisyves.masset@artesis.be
role of media
changesAlso content aggregators, facilitators
Business model: capture audience via all means
Media companies look to own channels: deals for own phones?
Content portals -> web applications & services
Social networks as well as content hubs
MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA
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#21 2008 Artesisyves.masset@artesis.be
is this the
end of print?Books, newspapers magazines...
Read on flexible digital boards, always connected
Websites & digital newspapers become same thing
Newspapers smaller & niched, but not extinct
Newspapers become expensive, luxury itemsA lifestyle item: buying an experience, part of offtime
MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA
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#22 2008 Artesisyves.masset@artesis.be
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#23 2008 Artesisyves.masset@artesis.be
...otherdevelopments
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#24 2008 Artesisyves.masset@artesis.be
other trends fornow & the futureSemantic web entrenched
Artificial intelligence
Attention economy in full swing
Sophisticated personalisation of content
Location-based/mapping services common & mobile
Virtualisation eg: Amazons EC2 & S3 services
Web 14.0???... ;-)
SRC: Read Write/Web, Jaxon Rice, My blog
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#Driven by internet and mobile communications,networks are turning into the major means ofdoing business... Simply put, networks willmake the world go round. So controlling thenetworks of this world will soon count for more
than controlling the capital.Netocracy, by Jan Sderqvist and Alexander Bard (2001)