Post on 29-Oct-2014
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Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
Accelerate Your Future
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Keynote for Nordea senior leaders -‐ change management, strategy and key trends. This presenta:on contains many video clips.
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100s more presenta:ons, videos and ar:cles: !
h?p://www.globalchange.com !
h?p://www.youtube.com/pjvdixon
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ALL BIG TRENDS ARE RELATED !
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What will Nordea (and your compe:tors) look like in 2020 ?
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EU20,000 Challenge “4 word phrase is basis
of all marke:ng, mo:va:on, change
management and leadership”
do things you believe in
“Great leadership is the ability to engage and
mo:vate people to reach out for our vision and the ability to create the right team to make it happen.”
“Great leadership is the ability to engage and
mo:vate people to reach out for our vision and the ability to create the right team to make it happen.”
All leadership comes from VISION of a be?er future
Most debates about future strategy are about timing
and focus !
What if global recovery / mobile payments / retail spending /
bank regulation / inflation / life expectancy, the EU and rise of Asian markets all change faster than expected?
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Further Shocks? !
EU / Euro Iran / US / Israel China / Japan Mutant virus
Libor lawsuits !
(Asbestos: 730,000 claimants - 8500 defendents - $250bn already)
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Strategies often overtaken by events
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World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting
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You need more than
one strategy
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Agility requires
Simplicity
WGP 1980-‐2013 (%,constant prices)
US GDP 1980-‐2013 (%,constant prices)
EU GDP 1980-‐2013 (%,constant prices)
Vietnam GDP 1985-‐2011
ONE WORD will drive the
future
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Future is about...
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£ 375bn !
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$2.3 trillion US + $85bn per month
$3.4 trillion !
Reserves
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2% inflation target likely to be discarded
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The future is aboutEMOTION
“Each customer must know they can trust our advice and that we will be there when they need us most”
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“Great customer experiences”
80% lost in seconds
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Bank Customer / Client : !
Simple, elegant solutions to complex problems
Anticipate, instinct, smart Thought-leadership, common
sense, reliable advice Superb backup in crisis
>40% WDP by 2015� IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
300 million move to cities in China and 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030
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1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years
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Europe Dying !
4 couples to produce single great-grand child
Can we stop ageing ?
Treatment which restores and maintains the youthful elasticity of hardened arteries, improves heart failure – and helps wrinkled skin.
•Pigs teeth grown inside rats •Mice grow new teeth from nerve cells / gum
Grow New Teeth
Repair Heart / Brain with stem cells
• After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories • Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, strokes, brain decay
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Monkeys on diet live longer
Slow or no ageing is a reality in animals Japan women gain 15 minutes of life expectancy every hour
• Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales !
• No signs of getting old
lPeople like to belong lSense of identity lCommunity lFamily lPersonal advisor
“Relationship Banking” 2.3 million customer meetings a year
with over 10 million customers
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“Gender diversity is key lever to realise leadership poten_al”
85% of leaders of largest US corpora_ons say diversity is
key to innova_on
Forbes study
1 trillion pages a month
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Would recommend you to a friend ?
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1 trillion pages a month !
"Perfection!, Wonderful hotel. Good value, beautiful views.“
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Telford UK, May 20, 2012This was the most beautiful hotel. Clean, friendly and good value.
“Worst hotel I have ever been in. Should be closed down.“
Paris April, 2012
NEVER stay in this terrible place. Rats, insects, dirty. Many guests got sick.
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Nationalism Attempts to skew markets
with government policy !
Exchange rate wars Corporation tax spiral Turning blind eye to ....
“Universal Banking” Scale - Innovation Speed
Is the bank large enough for the future ? Eat or be Eaten or more Strategic Mergers
Why “old” outsourcing story in India nearly over
� Training 25,000 IT graduates pa
CUSTOMER CHOICE 200 million payments globally !
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• Kenya -‐ 17m customers • $9bn pa -‐ >33% GDP • Tanzania 9m people • 35 na_on links via HomeSend Hub
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1.7bn phone users are unbanked
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2m businesses use SQUARE in US
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• In UK alone.... • Transactions >EU600 billion pa • Credit card debt >EU60bn • Average card interest rate 16% • 2% commissions worth >£EU12bn
Payments Doorway
Vodafone Mastercard Sprint
Vamoosle
Free mobile devices calls / web / TV / games / pay Higher income model
2010 2013 2015
TelcoBanks
• Zettabyte = 1024 Exabytes Exabyte = 1024 Petabytes Petabyte = 1024 Terabytes Terabytes = 1024 Gigabytes
BIG Data
• Home • Work • Online • Offline • Sales • Entertain • Phone • Mobile • Chat • Inst Investor / UHNW / Corporate FD etc
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ONE CUSTOMER
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Regulatory Swings
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eg Capital Adequacy / ROI !
Public pressure v Reality
$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
Shale gas 33% US supplies
3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil
produced than Saudi by 2020 !
200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years
Boom
Bust
5 coal plants replace with gas = 9000 megawaDs wind Coal prices fall = more coal burnt in Vietnam and China 57 coal plants closed in US in 2012
120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total power useQUEBEC from ARIZONA MOSCOW from SAHARA
Solar cell genera_on parity
Falling solar cell prices
120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total global power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert
“40% EU power = wind by 2050” Surplus wind to hydrogen - to methane ?
Smart Power Regula_on U_lity Co controls consump_on in homes / factories 10% Australian power genera_on only used for 72 hours a year Energy prices can soar from $50/Mw hour to $10,000/ Mw hour
Germany Power Surplus
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• In June 2013 • Electricity prices became nega_ve • -‐ minus EU150 / MWhr !!
•Rapid growth HVDC Super Grids
• 500,000 S Korea jobs - $200bn Smart Grid Project
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•China planning to power Moscow
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Enough salt caverns planned to power Germany for a week
Power Storage
�30 million acres lost
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�EU 5% gasoline and diesel from food
25% of 2010 US grain à fuel30% US grain burnt in cars
do things you believe in sell things you believe in
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Beyond Compliance
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Perfect compliance will keep bankers out of prison but cannot protect brand, because public expectations change
rapidly - with severe judgment on those who justify past “unethical” behaviour on grounds that it was 100% compliant.
Truth about Retail Funds�Next miss-selling scandal? �Most actively managed funds fail to beat tracker funds,
when all charges deducted �Most fund managers I have surveyed (total > $1 trillion
under management) are reluctant to invest own money in own retail funds unless they are required to, and reluctant to recommend own funds to family / friends
� “50% of us sell funds of funds but only 5% of us invest in them”
�Ethical questions since whole purpose of active management is to protect wealth, not erode it (as is most likely outcome under current business models)
All sales based on a promise Purpose of business is to deliver
on the promise Profit is your reward for doing so
Purpose of Business
Profit -‐ Purpose -‐ Passion
COST CUTTING
Can be demoralising
All leadership comes from vision of a
beler future
Idea -‐ Genius -‐ Solu_on
Lesson from Non-‐Profit Founda_ons
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Connect with all the passions people have and they will follow you to the ends of the earth,
promote what you do with pride, and may even be willing to work for
you for next to nothing
EU20,000 Challenge “4 word phrase is basis
of all marke_ng, mo_va_on, change
management and leadership”
Build a Better World !individual family community world
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RESOURCES !
>500 videos of Keynotes http://www.youtube.com/pjvdixon
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Global Trends Website: http://www.globalchange.com
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