Post on 11-Apr-2017
30/10/2016
Sapri Pamulu, Ph.D. 1
Sapri Pamulu, Ph.D
Studi Kasus KPBU Infrastruktur PU
Entry Barriers
Workshop Kajian Entry Barriers Pasar Infrastruktur di Indonesia bagi Investor NasionalHotel Grand Kemang, Jakarta, 04 Oktober 2016
2–2
Today’s Agenda
• Industry Analysis in Brief
• Introduction to Entry Barriers
• Barriers to Entry PPP Market
• Empirical Study AnalysisAnalysis & Results
Discussion of Result
• Competitor Analysis (Tbk. Investment Capacity)
• Wrap-up
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2–3
Industry Analysis in Brief
2–4
Industry Environment Analysis
• Industry environment: The set of factors directly influencing a firm and its competitive actions and competitive responses
Threat of new entrants (Barriers to Entry)
Power of suppliers
Power of buyers
Threat of product substitutes
Intensity of rivalry among competitors
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2–5
Porter’s Five Forces
2–6
Low entry barriers
Interpreting Industry Analyses
UnattractiveIndustry
Suppliers and buyers have strong positions
Strong threats from substitute products
Intense rivalry among competitors
Low profit potential
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2–7
Interpreting Industry Analyses
AttractiveIndustry
High entry barriers
Suppliers and buyers have weak positions
Few threats from substitute products
Moderate rivalry among competitors High profit potential
2–8
Intoduction to Entry Barriers
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2–9
Three Types of Entry Barriers
1) General Structural barriers (or Innocent Barriers) – due to differences in production costs and being in the market for some time environment Economies of scale (e.g. Natural monopoly)
Vertical integration (e.g. Backwards and forwards)
Control of essential resources e.g. technologies / commodities
Expertise and reputation of the incumbent
Brand loyalty
Inherent suspicion among consumers about new ideas
2–10
Three Types of Entry Barriers
2) Strategic barriers Predatory pricing / limit pricing
Marketing / product differentiation
3) Statutory (legal) barriers - entry barriers given force of law Licences (e.g. Professional qualifications)
Patents
Copyrights
Public franchises
Tariffs, quotas and other trade restrictions
This is industry-specific, not firm-specific
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2–13
Barriers to PPPs (UNESCAP, 2012)
2–14
Barriers to PPPs (UNESCAP, 2012)
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Barriers to Entry PPP Infrastructures
Code Entry Barriers References (Papers Based) EB1 Government involvement in underwriting Ke et al. 2009 ; Zhang 2005
EB2 Lack of work experience and work ability of ppp infrastructure Ezulike et al., 1997 ; Jane and Laughin , 2003; UNESCAP, 2012
EB3 Excessive restriction in the project Akintoye et al., 2005 ; Zhang, 2005
EB4 High participation costs Ezulike et al., 1997; Tiong and Anderson, 2003 ; Devalance , 2012
EB5 High risk when relying on the private sector Ezulike et al., 1997; Akintoye et al., 2005 ;
EB6 Delay due to political debates (eg. Central vs local government) Infrastructure Journal, 2001a, b; Chan et al., 2010 ; UNESCAP, 2012
EB7 Delay due to negotiation process Ezulike et al., 1997 ; Chan et al., 2010 ; PU, 2014
EB8 Reduce accountability to the project Infrastructure Journal, 2001 b; John et al. 2006
EB9 Less employment opportunities Public Services Privatization Research Unit, 2000 N10
EB10 Long time in the preparation of contract transactions Chan et al., 2006 ; Ke et al. 2009 ; UNESCAP, 2012
EB11 High inflation Ke et al. 2009
EB12 High interest rates Ke et al. 2009 ; UNESCAP, 2012 ; Devalence, 2012; PU, 2014
EB13 Changes in act from law makers (DPR) Zhang, 2005 ; Ke et al. 2009
EB14 Public opposition (eg. Due to Land Acquisition) El-Ghohary et al., 2006 ; Ke et al. 2009 ; UNESCAP 2012; PU, 2014
Sumber: diolah (2016)
2–16
Empirical Study Analysis
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2–17
Statistical Analysis Method
2–18
Statistical Analysis of Results
Faktor Entry Barriers KodeEkonomi Suku bunga tinggi EB12Biaya Tinggi Inflasi tinggi EB11
Adanya oposisi oleh masyarakat EB14Kesempatan kerjaan yang ditawarkan lebih sedikit EB9Biaya keikutsertaan yang tinggi EB4
Kurangnya Kurang pengalaman dan kemampuan yang cukup EB2Pengalaman Adanya keterlambatan karena proses negosiasi EB7
Adanya keterlambatan karena perdebatan politik EB6Risiko tinggi bila mengandalkan swasta EB5Lamanya penyusunan kontrak transaksi EB10
Dari 14 variabel Entry Barrier, terdapat 4 variabel yaitu EB1, EB3, EB8 dan EB 13 dikeluarkan karena tidak signifikan secara statistik
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2–19
Discussion of Results (WEF, 2015)
• Policy Recommendation > Friendly InvestorsPolicy and regulatory enablers > Renegotiation risk,
Procurement process, Permitting process, Tax Policy
Investor value proposition
2–20
Discussion of Results (WEF, 2015)• Policy and regulatory enablers
Evaluate various governance and contract mechanisms to reduce political risk
Where appropriate, leverage support and available riskguarantees from multilateral development banks
Task a public-private partnership unit with improving procurement process efficiency by increasing standardization and predictability, and providing technical skills to line agencies
Review and streamline regulatory and environmental permittingprocesses and appoint a lead agency to manage and coordinate them
Ensure taxes do not systematically advantage or disadvantagecertain types of investors and are stable over time
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2–21
Discussion of Results (WEF, 2015)
• Investor value propositionAnalyse returns from an investor’s perspective and
benchmark the project’s risk-adjusted returns
Create a standard methodology and approach for risk allocation
Conduct market sounding with investors to gather feedback on the project and determine if refinements may be necessary to attract interest
2–22
Discussion of Results (PU, 2015)
• NSPK on PPP/KPBU di Sektor PU-PRUpdate NSPK base on Perpres KPBU
• Potensial List of PPP/KPBU di Sektor PU-PRBina Marga
SDA
Cipta Karya
Etc
• Potential List of EPC/Contractors that have a good Investment Ratio >1 & SGR >10%
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PPP Related Regulation, Latest one?
2–25
PPP Related Regulation, Latest one?
2–26
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PPP Related Regulation, Latest one?
2–27
PPP Related Regulation, Latest one?
2–28
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PPP Related Regulation, Latest one?
2–29
PPP Related Regulation, Latest one?
2–30
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PPP Related Regulation, Latest one?
2–31
Next Another Permen-PUPR on Tata Cara Pelaksanaan KPBU ?
2–32
Company Analysis
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Case Study :
SOE
• ADHI
• PTPP
• WIKA
• WSKT
• HUTAMA
POE
• DGIK
• JKON
• NRCA
• SSIA
• TOTL
2–33 2–34
Wrap-up