การเปลีย่นแปลงของภาวะเศรษฐกิจโลก กบั ทิศทางอนาคตของประเทศไทย

กอบศกัด์ิ ภตูระกลู ผูช่้วยรฐัมนตรีประจ ำส ำนักนำยกรฐัมนตรี

17 สิงหำคม 2560

โลกก าลงัเปลีย่นแปลง

Disruptive Innovation

• Transform complicated and costly to simpler, cheaper product

Sustainable Innovation

• Replace old products with new products

• LED TV instead of black and white

Efficiency Innovation

• Reduce cost of making and distributing existing products

• Example: Toyota Just-in-time manufacturing

Clayton Christensen innovation model : Disruptive Technology

9000 BC

onwards

Medium of

exchange

5000 BC

onwards

Shell

Money

4000 – 2500 BC

Credit – Mesopotamian

tablets record ancient

loans and interest paid

2500 BC

Insurance –

Babylonian goods

transport insurance

1000 BC

Metal Money and

Coins – Early Chinese

“tool money” and

primitive coins

700 – 600 BC

Modern coinage –

Coinage takes modern

form in Lydia, western

Turkey

321 – 185 BC

Bills of exchange – Early

bills of exchange,

promissory notes,

Mauryan Empire, India

806 - 1023

Representative

money –

Banknotes and

paper money

appear in China

14th – 15th

century

Bonds and

Reinsurance

1602

Publicly listed

stock – Dutch East

India Comp. on

Amsterdam Stock

Exchange

1609

Standardized

currency – Issued

by Amsterdam

Exchange

(Wisselbank)

1688

Insurance

brokerage –

Edward

Lloyd’s

London

coffee house

1710

Futures –

Japanese

rice futures

market

1773

Check

clearing

house

1874

Standardized

futures

exchange

18th

century

Options –

First call

options on

some

Dutch

stocks

1913

Federal

Reserve

System

1950s

Credit Card –

Diners club,

Bank of

America

1938

Secondary

Mortgage

market –

Fannie

Mae

1949

Hedge

funds –

Alfred

Winslow

Jones

1960s

ATMs

operational

1972

Debit Card

1973

POS

Terminal

1974

ACH

1981

CHIPS -

same day

settlement

1988

Basel I

1999

Online

payment

service

Source: Rethinking Financial Innovation, World Economic Forum (p.16 – 23)

History of financial innovations

9000 BC

onwards

Medium of

exchange

5000 BC

onwards

Shell

Money

4000 – 2500 BC

Credit – Mesopotamian

tablets record ancient

loans and interest paid

2500 BC

Insurance –

Babylonian goods

transport insurance

1000 BC

Metal Money and

Coins – Early Chinese

“tool money” and

primitive coins

700 – 600 BC

Modern coinage –

Coinage takes modern

form in Lydia, western

Turkey

321 – 185 BC

Bills of exchange – Early

bills of exchange,

promissory notes,

Mauryan Empire, India

806 - 1023

Representative

money –

Banknotes and

paper money

appear in China

14th – 15th

century

Bonds and

Reinsurance

1602

Publicly listed

stock – Dutch East

India Comp. on

Amsterdam Stock

Exchange

1609

Standardized

currency – Issued

by Amsterdam

Exchange

(Wisselbank)

1688

Insurance

brokerage –

Edward

Lloyd’s

London

coffee house

1710

Futures –

Japanese

rice futures

market

1773

Check

clearing

house

1874

Standardized

futures

exchange

18th

century

Options –

First call

options on

some

Dutch

stocks

1913

Federal

Reserve

System

1950s

Credit Card –

Diners club,

Bank of

America

1938

Secondary

Mortgage

market –

Fannie

Mae

1949

Hedge

funds –

Alfred

Winslow

Jones

1960s

ATMs

operational

1972

Debit Card

1973

POS

Terminal

1974

ACH

1981

CHIPS -

same day

settlement

1988

Basel I

1999

Online

payment

service

Source: Rethinking Financial Innovation, World Economic Forum

History of financial innovations

9000 BC

onwards

Medium of

exchange

5000 BC

onwards

Shell

Money

4000 – 2500 BC

Credit – Mesopotamian

tablets record ancient

loans and interest paid

2500 BC

Insurance –

Babylonian goods

transport insurance

1000 BC

Metal Money and

Coins – Early Chinese

“tool money” and

primitive coins

700 – 600 BC

Modern coinage –

Coinage takes modern

form in Lydia, western

Turkey

321 – 185 BC

Bills of exchange – Early

bills of exchange,

promissory notes,

Mauryan Empire, India

806 - 1023

Representative

money –

Banknotes and

paper money

appear in China

14th – 15th

century

Bonds and

Reinsurance

1602

Publicly listed

stock – Dutch East

India Comp. on

Amsterdam Stock

Exchange

1609

Standardized

currency – Issued

by Amsterdam

Exchange

(Wisselbank)

1688

Insurance

brokerage –

Edward

Lloyd’s

London

coffee house

1710

Futures –

Japanese

rice futures

market

1773

Check

clearing

house

1874

Standardized

futures

exchange

18th

century

Options –

First call

options on

some

Dutch

stocks

1913

Federal

Reserve

System

1950s

Credit Card –

Diners club,

Bank of

America

1938

Secondary

Mortgage

market –

Fannie

Mae

1949

Hedge

funds –

Alfred

Winslow

Jones

1960s

ATMs

operational

1972

Debit Card

1973

POS

Terminal

1974

ACH

1981

CHIPS -

same day

settlement

1988

Basel I

1999

Online

payment

service

Source: Rethinking Financial Innovation, World Economic Forum

History of financial innovations

9000 BC

onwards

Medium of

exchange

5000 BC

onwards

Shell

Money

4000 – 2500 BC

Credit – Mesopotamian

tablets record ancient

loans and interest paid

2500 BC

Insurance –

Babylonian goods

transport insurance

1000 BC

Metal Money and

Coins – Early Chinese

“tool money” and

primitive coins

700 – 600 BC

Modern coinage –

Coinage takes modern

form in Lydia, western

Turkey

321 – 185 BC

Bills of exchange – Early

bills of exchange,

promissory notes,

Mauryan Empire, India

806 - 1023

Representative

money –

Banknotes and

paper money

appear in China

14th – 15th

century

Bonds and

Reinsurance

1602

Publicly listed

stock – Dutch East

India Comp. on

Amsterdam Stock

Exchange

1609

Standardized

currency – Issued

by Amsterdam

Exchange

(Wisselbank)

1688

Insurance

brokerage –

Edward

Lloyd’s

London

coffee house

1710

Futures –

Japanese

rice futures

market

1773

Check

clearing

house

1874

Standardized

futures

exchange

18th

century

Options –

First call

options on

some

Dutch

stocks

1913

Federal

Reserve

System

1950s

Credit Card –

Diners club,

Bank of

America

1938

Secondary

Mortgage

market –

Fannie

Mae

1949

Hedge

funds –

Alfred

Winslow

Jones

1960s

ATMs

operational

1972

Debit Card

1973

POS

Terminal

1974

ACH

1981

CHIPS -

same day

settlement

1988

Basel I

1999

Online

payment

service

Source: Rethinking Financial Innovation, World Economic Forum

History of financial innovations

Alipay, Alibaba, Ali Credit

Alipay, Alibaba, Ali Credit

Hard Disk Drive Industry

Apple

11

2. Global and Regional Supply Chain

Support the Emerging Regional Supply Chains Example: Minibea Cambodia

12

13

Nikon also relocated some of its manufacturing to Savan Park

Thilawa SEZ 14

Thilawa SEZ 15

3. Comparing to China and India, Thailand is too small as an investment destination

16

17 China’s One Belt, One Road

18 China’s One Belt, One Road

High Speed Train from China 19

Road Condition – R3A to China 20

Road Condition – R3A to China 21

Road Condition – R3A to China 22

23

4. Emergence of CLMV

IMF Forecast

CLMV is Becoming One of the Key Export Markets for Thailand 24

CLMV

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

US

ASEAN

China

Japan

EU

New Urban Centers in Asia 25

m

New Urbanization 26

27

Phnom Phen

28

City Mart - Yangon

A Thriving Market of 230 - 400 Million People 29

Bangladesh 160 Mil People

30

Integration of Roads and Motorways Improves quite Rapidly

31

Emerging New Land bridges for ASEAN and Asia

ประเทศไทยก าลงัเผชิญปัญหา

33

Why do Thailand need to change and reform ourselves?

GDP

34

GDP Comparison in 2015

Thailand 2.8 Malaysia 5.0 Indonesia 4.8 Philippines 5.9 Vietnam 6.7

35

Export Growth of Thailand

Our International Competitiveness has also been declining 36

Rising gap between rich and poor 37

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2531 2533 2535 2537 2539 2541 2543 2545 2547 2549 2550 2552 2554

Poorest 20% Richest 20%

Finally, comparing to China and India, Thailand is too small as an investment destination

38

Thailand 4.0

Meaning of Thailand 4.0 40

Thailand 4.0 = New Thailand

Target = Becoming a More Developed and Balanced Nation 41

New Generation of Infrastructure

Advanced and Innovative Industries

Better Livelihood of our People

Local Economy and HRD

New Set of Laws and Institutions

Thailand’s Transport Infrastructure Development Master Plan

Thailand’s Transport Infrastructure Development Master Plan

New Motorways 44

• 4 lane on Major corridor project

• Cover 11 routes 5,400 km

• Fiscal budget & Loan

• Completed 2,750 km (51%)

• Under construction 850 km

• Planning 1,800 km

Key Projects: Road Network

45 Source: Department of Highway

From - To Distance

(KM) Amount

(Mill. USD) Chachoengsao – Kaeng Khoi 106 360

Lop Buri - Nakhonsawan 118 420

Map Kabao – Thanon Chira Junction 132 370

Thanon Chira Junction - Khonkaen 185 410

Nakhonpathom - Hauhin 165 530

Prachuap Khiri Khan - Chumphon 167 500

Total 873 2,590

Double Track Construction 1st Phase

46

New Railways

Denchai- Chaengrai

Nam tok – Jadee 3 ong

Ubon – Chong mek

Rayong - Trad

New Route

47 Source : Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning

New Railways

Integration of Railway in GMS 48

Alignment of high

speed rail on dedicated

standard gauge track

Port

Department of Civil Aviation 28

AOT 6

Bangkok Airways 3

Military 1

Total 38

Suvarnabhumi, 47,910,904 , 72%

Don Muang, 3,424,915 , 5%

Phuket, 8,467,995 , 13%

Chiangmai, 3,880,037 , 6%

Hadyai, 1,869,113 , 3%

Chiangrai, 818,163 , 1%

Number of passengers 50

Expansion of Existing Airports as well as New Airports

51

New Extension of Suvarnabhumi Airport

52

Target : Developing North-South and East-West Corridors

0 2 5 10 กม. Km.

Key Projects: Mass Transit

route km

Red Line (North-South) 80.8

Red Line (East-West) 54

Airport Rail Link 50.3

Dark Green Line 66.5

Light Green Line 15.5

Blue Line ( Circle Line) 55

Purple Line 42.8

Orange Line 37.5

Pink Line 36

Yellow Line 30.4

Total 468.8

10 Line MRT Master Plan

Source: Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning

53

นโยบายภาครฐั

2 1

China

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

18

19

21

20

22

23

24

25

26

27

17

16 operating

constructing

planning

Thailand

Myanmar

Lao

Vietnam

มาเลเซีย

Cambodia

DOH

สพพ.

Private/ others

20. Phu Nam Ron – Thailand-Myanmar border

21. Kanchanaburi - Dawei

22. Friendship Bridge (Mae Sot)

23. Friendship Bridge 2(Mae Sot)

24. Myawaddy – Dawna Foothill

25. Dwana foot print – Kawkareik

26. Kawkareik - Thaton

27. Friendship Bridge (Mae Sai)

Thailand – Lao PDR (11 projects)

1. Friendship Bridge 4 (Chiang Khong-Huay Sai)

2. R3A in Laos

3. Huay Kon – Pak Beng

4. Hinhway No.13 North – Sang Kha Lok

5. Phu Du – Pak Lai

6. Highway No. 11 Lao PDR

7. Bridge across Huang River, Tha Li, Loei

8. Friendship Bridge 1 (Nong Khai-Thanaleng)

9. Road access Ban Woen Tai Pier

10. Friendship Bridge 3 (Nakhon Panom-Kham Mouane)

11. Friendship Bridge 2 (Mukdahan-Savannakhet)

Thailand – Cambodia (3 projects)

12. Road No. 67 Chong Sa Ngam – Siem Reap

13. Road No. 68 Chong Chom - Kralanh

14. Road No. 48 Ko Kong – Sre Ambel

Thailand – Malaysia (5 projects)

15. Bridge across Kolok River, Tak Bai

16. Bridge across Ko Lok River 2, Sungai Kolok

17. Bridge across Ko Lok River 3, Bu Ke Ta

18. Nathawi-Ban Pra Kop

19. Kuan Sa Taw-Wang Pra Chan

Thailand – Myanmar (8 projects)

Key Projects: Road Network

ASEAN Connectivity

55 Source: Department of Highway

New Exits to the Oceans 56

57

Thai Laos Friendship Bridge III – Nakorn Phanom

58

Thai Laos Friendship Bridge IV – Chiang Rai

Existing custom points at the border areas 59

60

… establish new economic zones along our border areas

Integration of Railway 61

New S-Curve and Eastern Economic Corridor

63

Building the New Growth Engine for Thailand

GDP Billions of USD

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Upgraded Industries

New Industries

64

Double S-Curve

Double S-Curve policy to establish new industries for the future • Next generation Automotive • Smart Electronics • Affluent, Medical and Wellness Tourism • Agricultural and Biotechnology • Food for the Future

• Aviation and Logistics • Robotics • Medical Hub • Biofuels and Biochemical • Digital

65

FoodInnopolis

66

FoodInnopolis

67

FoodInnopolis

68

New Start Up

69

New Start Up

EEC = Eastern Seaboard 2.0 70

71

4 Core Areas to be Developed

72

Major Investment Projects in EEC

New Generation of Infrastructure + Advanced Manufacturing Center = Gateway to AEC/Asia

73

U-Tapao: Capital of Aviation & Aircraft Maintenance Industries

U-tapao Airport City

74

Skycity Development Project of Hong Kong Airport

Aerotropolis

76

77

Laem Chabang => Transshipment port for Indochina

Port of Rotterdam

79

Hinterland Network

80

New Industries in the EEC 81

60 min radius

25 min radius

• Aviation Parts • MRO • Robotics • Petrochemical • Automobile • Digital •Logistics • Distribution Center • Tourism

Industries in EEC… Focus on R&D to add more values 82

Aviation, Maintenance and Related Businesses Advanced Petrochemical and Specialty

Chemicals

Auto, Auto parts, Electronics, and Robotics

Agricultural Processing

• Specialty Chemicals • Environmental-friendly

chemicals • Biochemicals • R&D to support existing

industries / promote new S-Curve

Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO)

Aircraft parts and spare parts

Air Cargo

Smart Automobiles Electronic parts

Robotics for industrial and lifestyle use

Processed fruits Frozen food Rubber products

EECi @ Wang Chan Valley

84

Develop Greater Pattaya as a Regional Hub for MICE

85

EEC Global Business Hub and Free Economic Zone

Additional electricity system Water supply (piped and raw

water) - Integrating water pipe system

from several sources - Finding new sources

Waste management IT infrastructure Antennas and cables Data Center

Public Utilities to Support the Growth of Industry and Community

86

87

1.5 Trillion Baht of Public/Private Investments for First 5 Years

High Priority PPP Projects for 2017

89

Camb

odia

Vietnam Laem

Chabang

Maptaput

Dawei

Cambodia

China CLMV

Malaysia Singapore

E-W

N-S

89

EEC - A New Logistic Hub for Indochina, AEC and Asia

A New Logistic Hub for Indochina, AEC and Asia

12

Short term

Focus on 5 industries

Medium term

Logistic hub for ASEAN

Long term

Advances in innovation & human resources

Hospitality

and

wellness

Food and

agricultural

processing

Automotive and

other transport

equipment

Electric and

electrical

appliances

Trading

Economic priorities