Assemblee of the people, Astana

Friday, 25th of November 2016

ECONOMIC REVIEW OF RENEWABLE ENERGY

STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVES FOR BILATERAL ENERGY COOPERATION

BETWEEN THE EU AND KAZAKHSTAN

GEOECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL DIMENSIONS IN

COMPETITION WITH RUSSIA‘S AND CHINA‘S CENTRAL

ASIA POLICIES

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Oil Consumption

Oil Production

[`000 barrels per day]

Falling Crude Oil Consumption and Production in the EU (2010-2014)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Gas Consumption

Gas Production

[bcm]

Falling Natural Gas Consumption and Production in the EU (2010-2014)

0,00

20,00

40,00

60,00

80,00

100,00

120,00

140,00

6.1

.06

9.1

.06

12

.1.0

6

3.1

.07

6.1

.07

9.1

.07

12

.1.0

7

3.1

.08

6.1

.08

9.1

.08

12

.1.0

8

3.1

.09

6.1

.09

9.1

.09

12

.1.0

9

3.1

.10

6.1

.10

9.1

.10

12

.1.1

0

3.1

.11

6.1

.11

9.1

.11

12

.1.1

1

3.1

.12

6.1

.12

9.1

.12

12

.1.1

2

3.1

.13

6.1

.13

9.1

.13

12

.1.1

3

3.1

.14

6.1

.14

9.1

.14

12

.1.1

4

3.1

.15

6.1

.15

9.1

.15

12

.1.1

5

3.1

.16

6.1

.16

Crude Oil Spot Prices (in US$)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Exports in Billion of US$

Kazakhstan‘

s Oil Exports

in US$

Billion

Oil Spot-

Prize in US$

Development of the Kazakh Oil Sector

16%

18%

63%

3%

Kazakhstan‘s Energy Mix, 2014

Natural Gas

Oil

Coal

Hdyro

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2016 2020 2030 2050

Expansion of Renewable Energy in Kazakhstan

(in %)

State Planning for Renewablesin the Energy Mix (in %)

2) The Role of Renewable Energies in Kazakhstan‘s Transformation Process

• Kazakhstan possesses a huge development potential in the realm of renewable energies

• Solar energy

• Wind energy

• Bio mass

• Hydro power(potential conflicts with neighboring states)

• Kazakhstan has the advantage of using renewable energies, while not generating conflicts in society (in contrast to Germany)

3) Political Recommendations I

• State-led information campaign about environmental challenges and the long-term neccesity to expand renewable energies

• Expanded usage of renewable energy for a decentralized energy supply (starting with used wind turbines)

• Earnings from fossil fuel exports to finance renewable energies

• Increasing the energy effiency in energy-intensive industries

• Foundation of a research cluster „coal technologies“ in cooperation with foreign institutes (e.g. Fraunhofer Institut)

3) Political Recommendations II

• Development of a long-term portfolio strategy of the Kazakh National Fund (connecting renewables with digital services)

• Excecuting the legislation from May 2016 on REN; e.g. the fed-in tariffs.

• No step out from classic energy – financial basis

• The role of the Eurasian Development Bank

• Obtaining the model of the German Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KFW)