Post on 03-Oct-2015
description
""
2009
11562 3
+202 240 55 452 +202 240 55 494
bcaba brn ba :a
Zbabc
im
2008 Trickle Down Effect
2008
20082004 %19 2007-2004 %25
stabilization
Za br ana na brna
c@ m@bna ba ba aZbrna b
Z7a@a brnapbba
m
Za baba brna bm
ii
m
2007-2000 2007/2006-2005/2004
2007/2006 %5
2004 2007/2006
% 9
2007
2007/2006
na @pb 5c a a Zba
Zbam rc bau m
Zbja jua baclanua@ @
@a br ba@nanZbrna
pbbcyc bau bbana aZna a
iii
m
%40 %7.2 %9 2007/2006 11.1
.1
.2 %35 %44 %90 %10
.3 %77
2004
pb a m qa by a7a pba a brna
Zna
iv
m
2007
@a brna bna a@j La bna @kmmbg pb i ya @paaua
Za6a xanaba m a
Zpbna
pbn0a
(2005-1995)
5
7
7
9
10
11
12
17
17
18
21
24
27
27
29
30
36
39
41
42
43
44
45
1:1 72:1 83:1 84:1 85:1 86:1 97:1 108:1 109:1 11
10:1 1211:1 1312:1 14
1:2 172:2 183:2 204:2 "" ""225:2 236:2 23
1:3 2007 282:3 293:3 294:3 305:3 316:3 317:3 328:3 339:3 33
10:3 34
1:4 422:4 423:4 (2008-2009) 434:4 (2009) 435:4 2006 44
Zba b
Zaa b
1:2 182:2 193:2 194:2 205:2 226:2 22
1:3 302:3 35
1:4 44
5
akja
bra kja bc
sbra@kja@jm
iaa kja h a7c
6
2007 20072006
2004
7brna pbba
2002/2001 2:1 %46 %23 2004/2003 2003/2002 %35
(2007-1975)
1:1
1997
brnapbba
2008/20072005/2004
brnapbba b Z c
1:1Hu biI a brnba@ba m
a a
8brnapbba
2000 %0.87 2007 %0.54 4:1
5:1 2000
2004 %15 %26
3:1 1997
2:1(%)a brna
3:1(%)ba0awmbag0a bna j
4:1(%) aag@a j
5:1@(%) aa m
9brna pbba
2007/20062006/2005 2:1 1:1%28
%19 %25 6:1
2006/2005 (1999/1998
2004
2002/2001 %22 %23.5
2008 %20 2007/2006 %8
6:1(%) ba0awmba brna@k
brn@aa@na Zbbq
10
brnapbba
7:1 12007-2000
%60
%10 %16 %4
8:1 %6 %3
2
%60
7:1@(%) a@pabrnaa na(2007-2000) 6a
34
1
30 10
6 3
16
- 1 - 2
0.3
31.8 11.5 3.0
3.0 17.8
8:1@(%)pbn aa na(2007-2000) 6a
brn@ba@na@Zbrbq
32.6
11
brna pbba
%20
%7%5
%25
%13 1999 1998 2004 %5 %18
9:1
2007/2006 2005/2004 %25 %20 2006/2005 %9 2007/2006 %25
10:1
9:1(%) brnba na
bbiba brna Zbia
12
brnapbba
2007/2006 %33 %35 %13 %20 (Trickle Down Effect)
""
crowding out non-tradable
crowdingin tradable
10:1(%) pabrna@@bababa@k
bja jua brna Zbb
13
brna pbba
2008
(11:1) 3 1979%6.7
%3
%1 1994 (12:1)
11:1(%) g bja jua brnapbmHba0awmbagpabrnabI
- 3
14
brnapbba
1991
(11:1)
(12:1) 4 %1
2003%0.28 2000
2004
2006 379 2002 166.3
2004 %1.5 2007/2006 %7.1 %7.5 %2.1
2007 30
%0.5
12:1H bI ba ag bja@jua brnapbm
UNCTAD, FDI STAT, World Investment Report (2007), Foreign Direct Investment, FDI ows and Stocks, Major FDI Indicators
- 4
15
brna pbba
2009 %2
1.65 2009/2008 2.97
17
a@bna brna qc
(2007/2006 1983/1982) 1:2
Growth Accounting 1
z brna Z c
Framework Total Factor Productivity (TFP)
1:2 2005/20041991/1990
Mustafa Nabli, Breaking the Barriers to Higher Economic Growth, The World Bank, 2007, Chapter 7; Hanaa Kheir-El-Din and Tarek Moursi, Sources of Economic Growth and Technical Progress in Egypt: An Aggregate Perspective, in Explaining Growth in the Middle East, edited by J. Nugent and H. Pesaran, Elsevier, 2007; and Hanaa Kheir-El-Din and Heba El-Laithy, An Assessment of Growth, Distribution, and Poverty in Egypt: 1990/91-2004/05 in Hanaa Kheir-El-Din (ed.), The Egyptian Economy: Current Challenges and Future Prospects, AUC Cairo Press, 2008, Chapter 2.
- 1
1:2(%) aba0awmba brna m
20082007/2006-1982/1981
a@bna brna qc bra a
18
a@bna brna qc
(2:2) %2.6 %4.2 %1.5
2%10
91/199096/1995
96/199500/1999
00/199905/2004
91/199005/2004
0.5462.3491.9931.509
-1.0880.0810.782-0.153
1.6332.2671.211.661
19.82423.8220.68921.178
3.2654.5582.413.325
1:2wmba ba k a b@(% a ba n)
Hanaa Kheir-El-Din and Heba El-Laithy, An Assessment of Growth, Distribution and Poverty in Egypt: 1990/9-2004/05, in Hanaa Kheir-El-Din (ed.): The Egyptian Economy: Current Challenges and Future Prospects, op.cit., p17.
2:2bb@wmba bac ba k (%)xbna a a ubnbi
Hanna Kheir-El-Din, The Egyptian Economy: Current Challenges and Future Prospects, op.cit.
1996/1995 1991/1990
2000/1999 1996/1995
2005/2004 2000/1999
Employment-Intensity of Growth
19 - 2
a na a qq Zbbq
19
a@bna brna qc
(2:2) Employment Elasticities to Growth and
GDP3
%1 %0.66
(3:2) (%28) (2007/2006 2003/2002) %12.3
%0.51 %0.45)
2:2na pbba ba0awmb ba na pb m
" " 2008 (130)
1991/1990 1981/19802005/2004 1992/1991
0.230.770.470.310.690.25 0.460.540.660.60.40.66 0.310.690.280.310.690.34
0.510.490.390.540.460.38 0.480.520.450.490.510.46
0.520.480.510.540.460.43
" " - 3 2008 (130)
2008 (%) *
3:2ba pabrna@bababa k(2007/2006 2003/2002) 6a
(%)
15182.8*(40.8)
22035(59.2)
37217.87.22
11492.4(18.2)
51807(81.8)
63299.412.29
67286.9(46.5)
77320.3(53.5)
144607.228.07
2028.7(18.8)
8770(81.2)
10798.72.1
62615.5(51.1)
59910.3(48.9)
122525.823.78
75803.7(55.4)
60945.7(44.6)
136749.426.54
234410(45.5)
280788.3(54.5)
515198.3100
20
a@bna brna qc
%28 %0.57 2007/2006 4%7.2
Agriculture Transformation Strategy
2005/2004 (3:2) 2007/2006%7.2 (4:2) 2007/2006 %1.85
2008
4:2@(%)ba@0awmba@pbba b(2007/2006 2005/2004)ba
2005/20042007/2006
0.000.530.530.000.570.57
0.720.821.540.531.321.850.040.30.340.080.820.90
0.540.420.960.590.621.21 0.270.440.710.461.071.53
0.010.610.620.010.440.45 0.300.000.300.320.000.32
0.000.120.120.010.330.34
1.883.245.122.005.177.17
3:2@(%)ba@0awmba@pbba b(2007/2006 2005/2004)ba
2008
(c -@3:2 )(l -@3:2) 2005/20042007/2006
- 4
21
a@bna brna qc
5
%54.4 3:2 2007/20062003/2002 %5.2 2007/2006%72
%7.2
Trickle Down Effect 6 " "
2007/2006 %40 %9 11.1 2008/2007 13.2
(4:2)
5- Industrial Modernization Center, Overview of Egypt's Agriculture Sector Transformation Program, Cairo, 16 July 2008.6- Commission on Growth and Development, "The Growth Report: Strategies For Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development", World Bank, 2008.
a a brna Zbrbq
22
a@bna brna qc
.1 4:2
2007/2006
.2 %35 %44 (5:2) 2006 %28.7 %10 %33
1998 72006 575
2 (6:2) %10 Modern Economy " "
4:2n babg Ba jB BaaB k@(%)ba
1996/19952000/1999
2005/2004
World Bank, Arab Republic of Egypt (ARE), Poverty Assessment Update, Washington DC, September 16, 2007.
2006
5:2a na ba
(%) 27.9 16.1 7.6
28.7 4.3
15.4 100
Ragui Assaad, Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey, 2006
6:2a
(%) 100 22 9.1 2
90.9 20
28.5 5.7 35.0 7.0 36.5 5.3 10.0 2.0
7- Ragui Assaad, Egyptian Labor Market Survey (ELMS), 1998; and Egyptian Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS), 2006 both published by the Economic Research Forum (ERF) in Cairo.
23
a@bna brna qc
%28.5
%26.5
(Decent Jobs) " " (5:2)
Initial .3 Distribution of Income
2005/2004 %40 %20 %15 %28 (3:2) %50.6 %26.2
%76.8
external shocks
(6:2)
5:2aa 7@ba bbi ba pbjm uc@m@(%)a bvy a b
Ragui Assaad, The Dynamics of Decent Work in Egypt, Population Council, June, 2008.
10-(49-10)(99-50)(100+)
6:2@(%)a na H2008@ M@2000 bI
2008
00
00
00
00
01
01
01
01
02
02
02
02
03
03
03
03
04
04
04
04
05
05
05
05
06
06
06
06
07
07
07
07
08
08
08
24
a@bna brna qc
2006 " " %66 %22 %30 2008
"" %20 %16.4 1423"%20 1222 1592 1854 " " " ""
%7 0.66 %4.2%2.9 %2.1
%19 %25 %18 %10-9
8
jn Zbia
- 8Mahmoud Mohieldin, Strategy of Economic Growth in Egypt, Discussion Paper, Cairo University, December, 1996
25
a@bna brna qc
(2012/2011-2008/2007) %8.5 %23 20.1 2012/2011 23.9 %9.1 %5.5
750 4.5
%8-7 92009/2008 %6%5 %21.2
%27.7
%7
15-10
19 2008 - 9
27
qa ba a
(2008/2007 - 2005/2004)
2005-) (1995
1993 814
2 12
215 295 125 430 195 20 2 1.7 2 2.1
%23.5%15%76 1%107 %11.4 %51.6 %562 %21.1 %68
b Z c
%7 - 1 2007 2007 - 2
Zqa@ba aby a
sbra a
28
qa ba a
%18.6 %8.4 %60.8 2005 3000
3 167 (1:3) 100 40 23 (%60) 9 (%24) 15 (%5)
(%2) 3(%9)
440 779 2007 167 4 12 23
5
(2:3) 5
Standard International Trade Classication
Revision3 (SITC Rev.3)
6
7
2:3 %27 (%25) (%22) (%23) (%3)
2:3 %65 (%20) (%11)
(%4)
1:3() 2007 qa pb@banaa
2007
2007 - 3 - 4
2007 .2007 - 5
- 7 - 6
29
qa ba a
(2005-2000) (1999-1995) 44 96
2002 1999
(4:3) (2005-2000) %5
8(2005-1995) (3:3)
(3:3)
(1998-1995)
2:3(%)pb ba baba na
2007
(cM2:3 )(lM2:3)
27
23
25
3
22
4
20
11
65
pb ba ba pb ba na
2007 2006 2008 - 8
2007
3:3na yaa pba ac m(2005-1995) 6a pb
%
30
qa ba a
(1999-1996) %53 %13 1999-) %76 (2005-2000) (1996
%8-2005
20052004
4:3bna pba@ac@ m(%) ba vy brna
(2005-1996) 6a
2007
38 %21 33 4 %43 %17 %2
(1:3) %70 %80
1:3a pb ba ubna pbba
(%)
(%)
(%)
0513.213.2
10513.226.4
20410.536.9
3025.342.1
40718.460.6
50410.571.1
6037.979.0
7025.384.3
8025.389.5
410.5100.0
qa aa@a Zbrbq
31
qa ba a
(5:3)
%95 %58 (6:3) %34
%18 (%3) (%8)
(%3)
%52 %16
5:3(%) brna bbna a
6:3(%)pba upba aug pbu
- 9
32
qa ba a
2005) 9(2007 20063.4 2006 %22.1 2005 2.8 2007 %50 %7.83 %752007 1.2
%20.1 2.6 3.1 2006 2007 2005 2.9 %7.8 %25 %75 2007 2005 2007 0.4
2007%10.42006%15.6 36 %50 19 2005 21
2007 15 2006
2000 (2007-2005) 2007
(7:3) " " " %55 " " (%50) " "(%45) " (%37) " " " " %8 %5
%29 (%24) (%19) (%14) (%14) %32
7:3(%) b qa brnap
5
55
8
50
1345
13
37
13
32
18 26 24
33
qa ba a
%21 (%16)
(%10)
(%43) (%24) (%35) (%29)
(8:3) %61 %2 %37
10
(9:3)
8:3(%) pba b
37
61
2
- 10
9:3(%) qbi brnapa pa@apba
34
qa ba a
%15 11%5
12
%67 %28 %24 %20 %20
(%8)
(9:3)
2008
7
%68 (%27) (%35)
(%8)
(10:3) %61 %13 %37 %34
10:3(%)xbna p am bc
- 11 2004 - 12
35
qa ba a
13
%76 %66 %50 %53 14
%90
15
%42 %25 %31
%47 %21
(2:3)
- 13
- 14 - 15
2:3rnau@brnab@pby6c
(%)
53 47 47 45 45 45 45 37 37
36
qa ba a
2000
a Zbia
37
qa ba a
39
a bna
""
" " " " " "
" "
" "
a bna iaa a
40
a bna
" " ""
.1 " " 2004
.2 1990 130 2002 173 85 177 115 119
.3
.4
.5
41
a bna
.6 " "
1979 1994
1 134
2006/2005 114 58 77 2007/2006 122 71 13481 2008/2007 131 2009/2008
ba@bna m@Z c
131124 2006 9 - 1
"Global Competitiveness Index"
42
a bna
(1:4) 26
36 31
(2:4)
1:4ba bna @a@paa kmm
2009/20082008/20072007/2006
(26) (27) (31)
(35) (36)
(37) (48) (37)
(37)
2:4ji@b bn a a kmm(2009-2008) bc b9a a
125
70 2007/ 127 2008 38 33 28 25 %17 (1) (3) (%15) (2) (4) (%13) (7) (%7) (6) (%7) (5) (%8)
(%7)
181
aja ba ba ac@m Zbbq
43
a bna
(3:4) 125 2006 2007 40 2008 2009 114
181 11
2008 2007 2009
18 13 18 16 (4:4)
1991
2007 33 141 2006 68 1 35 (1:4)
165 163
3:4ba b a@bapb1a@kmm(2009-2008)
151 145
128 125
114 125
24 26
70 83
84 115
41 55
107 108 85 101
4:4b9@a a i@kmm(2009) bc
@ ba ba brna m@Zbrbqna@bvn zna a@ @
- 1
44
a bna
%2.5 %28.3
(5:4)
(1
(2
(3
(4
1:4ba brna mpa @kmm
*
200520062004200520052006
683379818177
5:4bc ji@b g aa bja jua@brna( ) 2006ba a
2005 *
a Zbia
45
pbna
2008
%7 2009/2008
%4
a pbyapbba Z c
pbna
46
pbna
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-1
-2
-3
a Zbbq
47
pbna
-4
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-1
na7a brna m Zbrbq
na@a Zbia
48
pbna
-2
-3
-4